Overdependence on the Three?

Read this thought-provoking post from J.P. Giglio’s solid N&O ACC blog (which I’ve now quoted twice in three days). Excerpt:

Could part of that lack of progress be the overwhelming dependence on the 3-pointer? Basically, if State’s hitting from 3, it wins. If it doesn’t, it loses. The premise of the Wolf’s offense, as constructed in the Virginia Tech, UNC and BC games, prevents progress.

State needs to take more high-percentage shots, either by Cedric Simmons or dribble penetration.

I don’t think that’s a full explanation (I think the lower level of aggression has as much to do with it as shot selection – and this has been an issue in the vast majority of games after our January loss in Cameron), but it’s part of it. I know I was screaming for more looks for Ced on Saturday, and I can’t help thinking that the versatile Andrew Brackman could have added more variety to the offensive gameplan. And, as I’ve noted before, it’s damned near impossible to be hot from long range 6 times in a row, or even 4 times (to get to the Final Four). And if an offensive system makes national titles and Final Four appearances a virtual impossibility, then I don’t like it even when it produces regular NCAAT berths and/or 20-win seasons.

Just to clarify, I didn’t write this post with the express purpose of pissing off Mr. O.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

General NCS Basketball

34 Responses to Overdependence on the Three?

  1. Mr O 02/28/2006 at 1:05 PM #

    JSimon: After that post, I read an article from the latest Anti-NC State ACC Sports Journal. A journalist from WS was talking about Ced’s play since the Duke game.

    Ced has played a lot more minutes than he did last season. Also, the journalist talked about how hard Sendek works our guys in practice and that some of our players have mentioned fatigue as an issue. I don’t remember these comments specifically, but it brought up an interesting question…maybe one to attack Sendek in regards to working the guys too hard.

    Specifically it talked about the GT game. He has made some silly fouls, he gives up position easily, and he is out of position a lot of times for reboundings when he tries to block shots. I noticed this in both games last week.

    I think it can be argued that we need better size and better inside guys, but those guys are tough to find also. Ultimately it comes down to recruiting good enough players to win at a high level and then developing a system that gives these players the best chance to win as a team.

    I think Herb found a way to be successful 5 years ago and he has done well in finding guys where this approach can be successful. If Herb wins enough, then more talented players will come to play for him and that will give him more options in the future. If he doesn’t win enough, then they won’t. But at least his way has made us a top 4-5 ACC team at this point. That was an important step to make because 5 years ago we weren’t a top 4-5 ACC team.

    But there isn’t an guarantee that Coach X who replaces Herb with a system like Roy Williams will come to NC State and win just because he doesn’t utilize Herb’s system. Herb tried it a different way for 5 years and was far from successful.

    Being an elite basketball program is a lot more complex than I think most fans make it out to be. That doesn’t mean that Herb will ever make NC State an elite program, but it also doesn’t mean that he won’t get us there solely because of the offense that he runs.

  2. Rick 02/28/2006 at 1:33 PM #

    “I think Herb found a way to be successful 5 years ago and he has done well in finding guys where this approach can be successful. If Herb wins enough, then more talented players will come to play for him and that will give him more options in the future.”

    This is just bad logic.
    If he cannot recruit the type of player needed to win in ten years, then there is no reason to think he ever will.
    The system itself is keeping these top guys away. What big man wants to come here and be forced to set screens at the top of the key?
    He has been given enough time and resources to succeed and has done the absolute minmum needed to stay.
    Herb has become a millionaire by using this system and there is no way he will change it. Even if the system itself will keep him from getting to the top. That is not his goal.

  3. class of '74 02/28/2006 at 1:51 PM #

    Just for fun suppose Herb left after this season. What would you say if we aggressively went after: Johnny Dawkins.

    I barely remember Vic Bubas leaving Case’s bench for Duke so maybe turnabout is fairplay. But the question is do you think our fanbase would think this is a positive move? Obviously if anyone came in and has immediate success we would embrace that person but do you think we would embrace a Dawkins for Herb trade?

  4. lumberpack 02/28/2006 at 8:55 PM #

    What makes Dawkins a better coach than Lowe or McMillian?

  5. class of '74 03/01/2006 at 6:44 AM #

    What made Bubas a better coach than say anyone of his time? Don’t get me wrong I like Sidney very much and Nate too. But Nate is in the pro’s making big. big bucks. So it’s unlikely he would take a big pay cut.

  6. PapaJohn 03/01/2006 at 12:59 PM #

    Thank you Mr O for your inciteful comments. There are few coaches in the country that can come in and gurarantee you they will create an elite program, and I suspect there are none that would come to State. especially if we dump Herb now. What would that tell any candidate? So I think the best you can hope for is exactly what Mr O said, someone to come in and win 20 games a year, graduate the players, keep them out of the newspapers, and recruit for that ‘magic class.’ Then when you get that combination of high quality players, you make the most of them. Success begets success, meaning better players. We are on an upward slope, increasing the quality of our players almost every recruiting year. Herb’s only averaging 19 wins a year, but we certainly can’t compain about them being good citizens.
    Think about Gary Williams, it took him more than 10 years, but then he got the class, was an elite program, won it all, and now they are back in the pack with the rest of us. Think about Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, same story. He was considered a clown until he got the recruiting class and won his ring. If you exclude out a few programs like UCONN, KY, UNC, DUKE most come and go.
    Think about our players today. Few if any are anticipated to be All ACC. I’d be surprised if anyone goes to the NBA successfully. And yet we are considered a lock for the NCAA. I think coaching gets some credit for that. As to our infuriating end of game performances, I suspect Herb is smart enough to practice smarter plays. I suspect he reminds them in the huddles, I think they’re just not doing it.
    It ruins my week every time we lose, just everyone else here, and it has for more than 30 years since I was at State. I’m impatient like everyone else for that breakout season. But I disagree that Herb has no potential to get us there. I remember Norm Sloan bashing, Jimmy V bashing, Les Robinson bashing (my goodness!!!!) and now Herb.
    State Fans, it’s not that bad.

  7. class of '74 03/01/2006 at 1:23 PM #

    ^Using that line of logic please explain why Ohio State fired John Cooper. He was winning 8 to 9 games per year and for the most part graduating his players. He could beat everyone but Michigan it seemed. Boy they sure were foolish to fire him now weren’t they!

    Greatness requires some guts and frankly we just don’t have guts anymore.

  8. Rick 03/01/2006 at 4:47 PM #

    ^^ That is one easy post to dismiss.

  9. Scott C 03/03/2006 at 1:23 PM #

    So PapJohn says that after 10yrs HS has gotten the Wolfpack to a consistent 4-5 ACC seed level and ~20-win seasons and two straight NCAA T trips, so we should just be satisfied with that MEDIOCRITY until some “magical” season comes along like a gift from God and then all will be well. . .
    So my response is why is settling for MEDIOCRITY so acceptable? Why should the Wolfpack settle for being like Clemson or Western Kentucky or Central Florida or any other no B-Ball history NCAA school that is thrilled with just getting into the NCAA T at the end of a “successful season?” BECAUSE the Wolfpack does have a rich and successful B-Ball history that true fans take great pride in. Need I remind you about the 2 National titles, 4 ACC T titles, numerous trips to the Final Four, Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen that NCSU B-Ball teams earned just since the Seventies [and ending at the start of the Nineties]?

    And yet HS supporters keep saying just wait, just wait, our day will come if we just gather around HS and back the Pack for an unknown [and UNKNOWABLE] number of future seasons.

    At what point is waiting on a future hope and prayer enough?

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