Friday Reality Check

Of course the HSSS crowd is still out in decent force on the Pack Pride Message Boards. I’ve been able to deduce that the new mantra is very similar to the old mantra — tout the overall “success” that this basketball season seems to be producing by looking at State’s overall record and damn everything else.

If the REAL motivation and desire is to truly paint an accurate portrait of State’s season to this point, then please allow me to share some quick numbers without ignoring the fact that State padded its win total with a disproportionately large number of games against grossly weak out of conference opponents:

* 21-6 Overall
* 10-4 ACC
* 2nd Place ACC Standings
* 3rd ACC Team in RPI
* #24 RPI
* #15 in Sagarin
* 0-4 vs RPI’s Top 25
* 2-5 vs Teams projected in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN
* 4-4 vs RPI’s Top 50
* 10-5 vs RPI’s Top 100
* 13-6 vs RPI’s Top 200
* NC State’s 0 wins against the RPI’s Top 25 rate last in the country in wins against teams in the Top 25.
* NC State’s 4 wins against the RPI’s Top 50 rate #21 in total wins (not winning percentage). vs teams in the Top 50.
* NC State’s 6 wins against teams rated between #51 – 100 rank 7th in the country for games won vs #51-100

(Please don’t pick on me for the last three points. I included them for “Dan”).

* Other than NC State, Arizona and Missouri State are the only two teams in the RPI’s Top 25 to have yet to defeat a single Top 25 team.

* Of the RPI’s Top 25, only five programs have played less games against Top 25 competition than NC State.

* State is 0-4 vs the RPI’s Top 25. Despite State’s ^comparably small number of games played against Top 25 opponents, only four of the top 50 teams in the RPI have a 4 (or more) game negative disparity between the number of wins and number of losses vs Top 25 opponnents.

* Only one team in the RPI’s Top 25 has played more opponents rated 200+ than NC State (8 opponents).

* Only four teams in the RPI’s Top 50 have played more opponents rated 200+ than NC State. One of them being the “great” George Washington (who has played 10)

Note: I think that all of this information is pretty interesting. It is factual. It is unique (have you seen it anywhere else?). And it required a little work to put together. I find it more than a little “interesting” that this exact post was DELETED from a thread on Pack Pride’s Message Boards earlier today. All I did was post factual bullet points and nothing else. Just wanted to give you the heads up in the event that you ever post some facts and information that any of their moderators may not want other people to know about.

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

83 Responses to Friday Reality Check

  1. Rick 02/24/2006 at 3:00 PM #

    “It is generally true that we tend not to lay 2 terds like that in a row. And we had sure as hell better not do so.”

    I keep hearing that.
    Have we played two tought teams in a row this year?
    Or is it a lose to the good team and whip up on the bad one type situation?

  2. Alpha Wolf 02/24/2006 at 3:08 PM #

    Wasn’t the last BC game after a loss?

    As for there being nothing intelligent about being positive, I can only hope that the players have a diametrically opposed attitude to that defeatism. I certainly don’t have a gale force sunshine wind blowing up my butt, but as long as there are games to be played there is still a good chance.

    I think that our problems begin at the guard positions – Atsur and Bethel have been pretty lousy on defense of late – witness the Miami comeback. Then they played better for a while at VPI, and didn’t come out of the locker room for the UNC game. With our offense it is critical that the guards play better.

    That might be easier said than done against BC, but the Pack really needs this win.

  3. topOtheorder 02/24/2006 at 3:19 PM #

    ^ Alpha,

    I was just joking about the intelligence and positive thing, although there is plenty of truth in that statement as we are working our way into an uphill climb the rest of the way—not insurmountable, but more challenging, and that’s not good. We CAN have a GREAT season from here. Beat BC and then beat UNC in the semis of the ACCT, and Wed night will slip from the memory. Beat Duke in the ACCT Final and the two other meltdowns vs Duke in the ACCT Finals fade from the memory. Go to the Final Four (or maybe Elite 8) and all of the meltdowns vs Wisconsin, Vandy, and California are history.

    We CAN do it, but it is OK to be critical in the meantime—different players psyche themselves up in different ways….

  4. scott 02/24/2006 at 3:26 PM #

    The best possible finish would be for us to beat BC & Wake, then win at least 4 games in the post-season. We could enjoy that and then, if we’re real lucky, Missouri will “steal” our Herbie away.

  5. class of '74 02/24/2006 at 3:37 PM #

    ^we’ve got a better chance of hitting the lotto powerball than that scenario unfolding as you described.

  6. Mick 02/24/2006 at 3:42 PM #

    Both Missouri and Cincinnati are looking to clean up their image. Indiana would never hire Herb. Iowa probably not as well. He’s got a great gig here. Why would he leave? His bosses, both Lee and Wendell, like him. He would have to get a huge raise to go somewhere else. After his experience at State, he will never go to work for a school that gives him specific winning requirements and goals. He’s not a dummy, outside of coaching that is.

  7. dan 02/24/2006 at 4:30 PM #

    Jeff: Fixed the mistake. Thanks for sharing!

    I stand by my earlier facts that I posted. Sort the RPI rankings by wins against RPI 1-50 and RPI 51-100. NC State’s 4 and 6 wins, respectively, rank them at 21 and 7. There’s no analysis to go along with that data, just trying to add context to the facts you list.

  8. WhitCanCoach 02/24/2006 at 5:18 PM #

    but as long as there are games to be played there is still a good chance.

    No. There may still be a chance. But where do you get good chance from?

  9. lumberpack 02/24/2006 at 6:09 PM #

    Fellows, NO DIVISION 1A PROGRAM WANTS HERB. He has never been wanted by another 1A program in the 10 years he has been here. Those have all been false rumors started by our AD. Florida came after Sloan. UCLA begged for Valvano and we would not let him go, only to turn around two years later and crucify him. He is a basketball Mike O’Cain. Nice guy, below average head coach at Division 1A.

    As for chance, there is a chance that menengitis will hit Reddick or Hansborough. There is a chance that Roy Boy or K will have heart attack prior to the ACC tourney. These are chances. What is likely and what is “a chance” is two seperate things.

  10. MurphNCSU 02/24/2006 at 6:15 PM #

    It seems to me everyone is dead-lock focused on the BC game, which with it being next makes sense, But I am more worries about what may possibly happen against Wake Forest in Winston. I don’t doubt that we will come back with a good effort against BC and that at home that should equal a win. But we will then have a whole week before we have to Winston. Logic says that it means we have more days to prepare(see here coaching) and for Ilian to get back to 100%(if he’s not already), but I can’t help remember the way we came out against Wake at home and the fact that they seem to play a lot more inspired at home. I can only wonder if Chris Paul had returned whether Herb might have gone 0-for-the Big Four again. Paul is one of those players(while I did hate the guy) who has that killer instinct whihc our team has always seemed to lack during the Herb era.

    Also, side note: Is it just me or hasn’t Herb had many some-what talented players transfer in his 10 years (please note I am not refering to Wilkins and his “power-dribble” towards the basket”). Is this a typical thing for good coaches? Is it a personality thing?

  11. Astral Rain 02/24/2006 at 7:06 PM #

    While I’m angry right now- I will give Herb credit for taking the program from where it was, to where it is. A lot of programs that went through the crap NCSU went through in the mid-90s, don’t come back.

    Example: UNLV- they haven’t been good in years. What about Virginia, they’ve been a laughingstock for a while now, or even St.John’s. They all had traditions slightly worse then State, but they had traditions.

    It is a lot harder to bounce back these days, then it was back in the Norm Sloan days. That being said, we have the tradition and talent to do it. I just think Herb’s peak is about this point, and I’d rather peak at the Final Four-level then round of 32 level…

    That’s fine for say, a Providence or a Virginia, but not here.

  12. Jeff 02/24/2006 at 7:18 PM #

    ^ Astral Rain…why do you give credit to anyone for delivering performance that any moron could create at a school with the resources, positioning, and tradition of NC State? Seriously…Herb Sendek has under performed both the historical average of NC State Basketball AND most any comparable program in the country…yet, you want to give him “credit” for bringing us to where we are?

    He definitely deserves the RESPONSIBILITY for our performance. But, I don’t understand why you want to dole out “credit” for under performance against every metric.

    I stand by my earlier facts that I posted. Sort the RPI rankings by wins against RPI 1-50 and RPI 51-100. NC State’s 4 and 6 wins, respectively, rank them at 21 and 7.

    Do you really not realize how stupid of a ‘point’ it is that that State has the 7th most wins in games against teams rated #51 – #100?

    WOOO HOOO!!!

    Dan, I’ll make you happy — I am going to include your awesome points in the original entry so that we can take a more wholistic look at how significant it changes the landscape. lol!

  13. PACDADDY 02/24/2006 at 7:45 PM #

    We lost a game to UNC…it sucks…it wasn’t the first and it won’t be the last…regardless of who’s coaching.

    Jeff: LOL!! Yep…It’s just one game. It’s just one of a 1-15 record vs Carolina teams not coached by the coach that they fired after three years for failuer to live up to their standards. You know what…the next loss to Carolina will only be “one game” as well. Just “one win”…kind of like the UConn win last year that sent us to the Sweet 16.

    WE also have a chance to finish second in the ACC…doesn’t that make everything you guys say about Herb and THIS season look kind of…well…stupid? I mean…the ACCT and NCAA hasn’t started yet so we don’t know how the season will end.

    Jeff: It is awesome!!! Having a CHANCE to finish 2nd is great!!! Especially in a season that the ACC is the 3rd best conference in the country…and particularly after 17 years of earning an ACC seed better than #4 but a single time. Just wait til next year!!!

    I’m mad at the teams performance as of late, but some of you guys are void of reality…Top 25…NCAA lock…possible 2nd place finish…quickest to 20 wins since 20 wins.

    Jeff: Void of reality? Dude…read the original entry. Your so void of reality that you failed to realize that I made NO editorial comments and simply listed numbers. How can argue about being void of reality agianst REAL NUMBERS?!

  14. PACDADDY 02/24/2006 at 7:47 PM #

    ^I meant to say”quickest to 20 wins since ’74”

  15. lumberpack 02/24/2006 at 8:00 PM #

    Quickest to 20 against the worst competition since 74

    No Big Four with at least 2 games against UNC/Duke or Wake
    No Legitimate Pre-Season Tourney like the Alaskan Shoot-Out/Rainbow Classic, Pre Season NIT
    A watered down ACC filled with bottom feeders

    Oh and by the way, its not your first 20 that matter, its the last 9 that matter, three games in the ACC Tourney and 6 in the NCAA. We used to make fun of UNC and Dean’s mythical regular season championship, now we are treating it like it’s the be all, end all since we know that the post season is futility

  16. Jeff 02/24/2006 at 8:01 PM #

    ^ Your so void of reality!!!! You and all of your reality!!!

  17. PACDADDY 02/24/2006 at 8:15 PM #

    Good one Jeff…Second place sucks don’t it? Top 25 sucks don’t it? Ha

    Lumberpack…33% of Herb’s tenure he’s made the ACC final game. Before you get all excited, I realize he hasn’t won it yet.

  18. Jeff 02/24/2006 at 8:28 PM #

    Fact: In the 43 years of ACC Basketball prior to Herb Sendek’s arrival in Raleigh, NC State had lost in a grand total of 3 ACC Title games. In his first 7 years, Herb Sendek lost as many ACC Championship games as NC State had lost in the program’s previous 43 year history.

    Fact: In the 43 years of ACC Basketball prior to Herb Sendek’s arrival in Raleigh, NC State had played in 13 ACC Championships, averaging one appearance for every 3.3 years and one Championship in every 4.3 years. Herb Sendek has played in ACC Championships at almost the exact same rate as NC State’s historical average but is yet to win a single title in a period that NCSU would have historically averaged 2 titles.

    Pacdaddy’s Conclusion “33% of Herb’s tenure he’s made the ACC final game” is something worth noting despite the fact that it is consistent with our historical average # of appearances and well below the historical average for titles.

  19. PACDADDY 02/24/2006 at 8:35 PM #

    ^Jeff…BTW..the “void of reality” comment wasn’t directed entirely at you.

    If you’re going to keep editing my post Jeff…at least remove your comment about my response to this article. There was a quote I used that motivated me to respond, especially since you brought up Pack Pride.

    “your facts” may be true, but how many other BB programs have sites that promote their program in such a negative way?? How many 2nd place/top 25 teams have such interesting info? Serious question

    That was the reason for my post.

  20. Jeff 02/24/2006 at 8:52 PM #

    Your ‘negative’ = the real world’s reality.

    I’ve made it clear in multiple posts that we aren’t interested in hosting a site that allows comments to focus on talking about the site (as opposed to topics) or focuses on the authors, or that criticizes the site or authors. If we opened that can of worms then every single entry that someone doesn’t like will become a referendum on the site.

    Thanks for understanding and remembering this warning the next time that some of your comments disappear.

  21. BJD95 02/24/2006 at 8:54 PM #

    PACDADDY – just to clear up a common misconception here – neither Jeff nor I are arguing that this season OR Herb Sendek “suck.” Both have been pretty good. And we have laid down a pretty clear and IMHO, reasonable marker for Sendek to wipe away the humiliation we suffered Wednesday, against probably the weakest UNC team we’ll ever see during Roy Williams’ tenure.

    What I have said is this – an ACCT title or an Elite Eight appearance THIS YEAR, and I’ll consider this season validated as a very good one, and give Heb Sendek kudos for it. Can you join me in agreeing to that benchmark?

    Note that I am NOT saying Sendek should be fired if he misses both marks – just that the season will have petered out, and an opportunity will be lost.

    Also note that the mark I have set is asking Herb Sendek to accomplish ONCE an achievement that Jim Valvano reached FIVE times during his time in Raleigh. How can that not be fair?

  22. NCSU'89 02/24/2006 at 8:56 PM #

    I’ve always subscribed to Valvano’s “be in a position to win” philosophy. For the UNC games of late, we’ve not been there. It is the coaches responsibility to have his team in that position. In the end the players have to make the plays to win.

    I don’t see Herb having the ability to do so against any coach that has that ability (Roy, K, Calhoun, Pitino, etc.).

    Watching Roy coach his guys late in the first half when they were ripping the Pack apart told the story of the night. He was engaged. He was teaching. He was ensuring his players kept their heads in the game. He was coaching.

    I long for the pre-Roy days …

  23. BJD95 02/24/2006 at 9:02 PM #

    PACDADDY – this site is devoted to objective, rational analysis. It’s not meant to be pro- or anti- ANYBODY. When the circumstances warrant, you’ll see entries like this one.

    Or this one from from Jeff

    Or this “positive” post, after a freaking LOSS.

    Don’t just see what you want to see, as a detractor of “our” way of thinking. Our only obligation and goal is to call them as we see them, and to provide value for our readers. I’ll stand by SFN’s record against that of any other site.

  24. JeremyHyatt 02/24/2006 at 9:10 PM #

    Sam ’92 – very elegantly and intellectually put, regarding the “great divide” among nc state fans. Very insightful, I liked it.

    I think the former shows some interesting parallels with “patriotism”, and how not supporting “the war” meant you didn’t care about the country, so it was a sensitive topic for a period.

    I try to see both sides. NC State basketball, since i really started paying attention to it during the end of the V era and land of Vinny Del Negro, they have a way of building you up and then ripping out your heart. But i equate the relationship similarly to Boston Red Sox fans–put them through complete hell but they still support the club with all their hearts.

    A lot of the latter end of the “great divide” lends itself to the question of “Well, if not Herb, then who?” I am intruiged by this circulation but I believe very little will come of it. I did enjoy the stream earlier where someone reviewed Dave Odom, Pete Gillen, and other who were eventually forced out of ACC coaching because they could never overcome Duke/UNC’s dominance. Its worth giving some validity. Legend coach Bobby freakin’ Cremins was even forced out under the pressure. It is obviously a ridiculously over-achieving league, and was the #1 conference for many years in the past decade. Mostly due to Duke, Carolina, Maryland, and Wake Forest doing pretty good. I don’t know what happened to Virgina, Clemson (remember Dale Davis?), GT, and FSU, they used to beat up on us, but i am fine with them being on the lower tier now.

    I’m not sure where I was headed with that, just stream of consciousness and observations. Wednesday night we were reminded that it still can be difficult being an nc state fan. Some people are shooting themselves in the balls with nail guns, some are turning off the tv, and me, I lsearched my home for a ps/2 to usb converter for most of the second half. It was very difficult to watch.

    Nevertheless, I feel good about this team, this is one of NC State’s strongest teams in the past ten years. #2 or #3 in the ACC is in fact an accomplishment, or rather a building block. We were having a slightly less than steller season before the Carolina debacle. Now let’s be a Sasha Cohen, pick ourselves up, and get our asses onto the medal stand. There is reason to be excited, still.

  25. PACDADDY 02/24/2006 at 10:21 PM #

    ^Please don’t get me started on the ACC history of ACC tourney games. I’ve done the research(and shared it on this blog) as to how difficult it is for teams to make the final ACC game…

    In your fasinating ACC T and 43 years crap…how many were in first 5-6 of tourney, and where was it played?

    11 of those 13 ACC title games were over 30+ years ago…8 out of those 13 ACC title games were before DT. DURING A SPAN OF 29 YEARS, WE WERE 8-5 IN THE NCAA…4 OF THOSE WINS WERE IN 74!…IF YOU TAKE OUT ’74, WE HAD A GRAND TOTAL OF 4 WINS IN NCAA OVER A 29 YEAR SPAN(Case through 2nd year of V)! Care to know how many UNC won???????? 32!…then they WON the NCAA in next season of ’82.

    Everett Case was 3-3 in the NCAA after the ACC was formed! Sure he didn’t get to make the tourney as often, but considering he lost in the first round of the ACC tourney 4 times in 12 years speaks volumes, and 3 other times he lost in 2nd game…So 7 of 12 years he didn’t make final game. Note: I’m including the year Press took over for Case and we won the title and finished second.

    Consider the fact that Case finished no better than 3rd place, 7 of those 12 years in the regular season.

    As a program…NCSU has finished 2nd place(alone) or better, 9 times in the 43 years prior to the arrival of Herb Sendek. Almost HALF OF THOSE(4) were in the first 13 years under Case/Maravich, so in the remaining 30 years we finished 2nd(alone) or better, 5 times….1 in 6 years. Oh…Sloan finoished 2nd(alone) or better twice in his 14 years…V…3 times

    Herb has a chance to finish 2nd(alone), 2 of last 3 seasons and we are here arguing because he lost to UNC?…FACT:..we were 6-24 against the Heels from ’60-72…that’s a 13 year span during Case, Maravich and Sloan.

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