Friday Reality Check

Of course the HSSS crowd is still out in decent force on the Pack Pride Message Boards. I’ve been able to deduce that the new mantra is very similar to the old mantra — tout the overall “success” that this basketball season seems to be producing by looking at State’s overall record and damn everything else.

If the REAL motivation and desire is to truly paint an accurate portrait of State’s season to this point, then please allow me to share some quick numbers without ignoring the fact that State padded its win total with a disproportionately large number of games against grossly weak out of conference opponents:

* 21-6 Overall
* 10-4 ACC
* 2nd Place ACC Standings
* 3rd ACC Team in RPI
* #24 RPI
* #15 in Sagarin
* 0-4 vs RPI’s Top 25
* 2-5 vs Teams projected in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN
* 4-4 vs RPI’s Top 50
* 10-5 vs RPI’s Top 100
* 13-6 vs RPI’s Top 200
* NC State’s 0 wins against the RPI’s Top 25 rate last in the country in wins against teams in the Top 25.
* NC State’s 4 wins against the RPI’s Top 50 rate #21 in total wins (not winning percentage). vs teams in the Top 50.
* NC State’s 6 wins against teams rated between #51 – 100 rank 7th in the country for games won vs #51-100

(Please don’t pick on me for the last three points. I included them for “Dan”).

* Other than NC State, Arizona and Missouri State are the only two teams in the RPI’s Top 25 to have yet to defeat a single Top 25 team.

* Of the RPI’s Top 25, only five programs have played less games against Top 25 competition than NC State.

* State is 0-4 vs the RPI’s Top 25. Despite State’s ^comparably small number of games played against Top 25 opponents, only four of the top 50 teams in the RPI have a 4 (or more) game negative disparity between the number of wins and number of losses vs Top 25 opponnents.

* Only one team in the RPI’s Top 25 has played more opponents rated 200+ than NC State (8 opponents).

* Only four teams in the RPI’s Top 50 have played more opponents rated 200+ than NC State. One of them being the “great” George Washington (who has played 10)

Note: I think that all of this information is pretty interesting. It is factual. It is unique (have you seen it anywhere else?). And it required a little work to put together. I find it more than a little “interesting” that this exact post was DELETED from a thread on Pack Pride’s Message Boards earlier today. All I did was post factual bullet points and nothing else. Just wanted to give you the heads up in the event that you ever post some facts and information that any of their moderators may not want other people to know about.

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

83 Responses to Friday Reality Check

  1. class of '74 02/24/2006 at 11:35 AM #

    The end result will be another lack luster season of no great accomplishments and gradual improvement from the years of Les(s).

  2. Cardiac95 02/24/2006 at 11:54 AM #

    re: Deleting of post on Pack Pride Message Board…..

    Exactly the reason why I cancelled my premium subscription over there. Pack Pride USED to be the source for inside scoop on the program….good or bad. And the Premium Message Boards USED to be a place that you could freely & openly discuss the state of affairs in our athletics programs in a relatively civil manner.

    Now…There is no difference between the “premium” boards & the general board, except volume of traffic. And the website as a whole seems to be slowly morphing into (sans the recruiting info). And since I’ve realized over the last 10 years that our recruiting in either football or basketball has exactly ZERO correlation to our on-field performance….what’s the point?

    Sorry to have taken this off topic…but I needed to vent that somewhere.

  3. VaWolf82 02/24/2006 at 11:54 AM #

    I used to expect more from State fans wrt data analysis. I used to be surprised at some people’s ability to ignore something that the entire world outside of Raleigh could see. I used to be surprised when people would come up with new definitions of success to replace championships and deep runs in the NCAAT. These things no longer surprise me.

    Here’s my nomination for a new school song:

    I’m above the below and below the upper
    I’m stuck in the middle where money gets tight
    But I guess I’m doin’ alright

    Jo Dee Messina
    I’m Doing Alright, 1998

  4. Cardiac95 02/24/2006 at 11:59 AM #

    Back on-topic….

    While an ACC Tournament Title is still possible & could redeem the season…Herb’s paultry 8-37 record against unc & duke leave me with little hope of actually achieving it, since you’ll have to go through one or both in order to cut down the nets.

    Likewise, an Elite 8 is still possible & could also redeem the season. But, again, give Herb’s paultry record vs. the RPI Top 10 (which I believe is actually worse than his record against unc & duke), I don’t have alot of hope there either.

  5. Mick 02/24/2006 at 12:05 PM #

    Herb is on the 15 year plan. Years 1-5: his record basically resembled Les, maybe a tad better. No championships or major accomplishments.

    Years 6-10: Now he’s better than Les, basically because he can now consistently beat the lower half of the ACC and by scheduling horrid non-conference teams. No championships, no major accomplishments, a handful of minor accomplishments. Still can’t beat really good teams.

    Years 11-15: At year 15, K and Roy both step down for health reasons. Herb wins his first ACC tourney after going 9-7. All the Herb lovers across this great land will come out of the woodwork and tell us: SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU ARE PATIENT. YOU JUST NEEDED TO GVE HIM A CHANCE.

  6. Rick 02/24/2006 at 12:08 PM #

    I suspect we will see a year earily simliar to Hodge’s junior year.
    One thing is for sure, we are playing very poorly right now. Either we peaked too early or other teams improved and we did not.

  7. BJD95 02/24/2006 at 12:32 PM #

    I am glad to see so many folks taking up the “ACCT title or Elite Eight” banner. It seems to garner support from people with wide variance in their views about Sendek.

    Which is good – since it’s NOT ABOUT SENDEK, but about what standards of excellence we should set for NC State.

  8. Jeff 02/24/2006 at 12:40 PM #

    Great comments by all.

    It’s only about Sendek to those people that have placed him as a higher priority in their own lives than they have NC State.

    It is TIME for TRUE SUCCESS at NC State. It has been for far too long of a time.

  9. dan 02/24/2006 at 12:42 PM #

    Some more data/context:

    SFN Note: Dan, you cannot come here and lie and make up “facts” that are not true. That is behavior for other places on the internet.

    Jeff, I understand you are only listing facts, but obviously you are listing facts to support your feelings on the season (see your previous post where you subjectively chose the SHU and UNC games to show NC State’s not coming close to the spread). Can you appreciate that others may draw different conclusions on the season with the same facts?

    If you want an objective sense of NCSU’s accomplishment to date, I’d strongly recommend the DanceCard (that Va often cites), or Sagarin’s rankings. They’ve both spent alot of time trying to determine an objective metric for a college basketball team. One has NCSU at #13, the other at #15. Is that good or bad? Obviously, you can figure that out for yourself.

    (Disclosure: INFORMS member)

  10. topOtheorder 02/24/2006 at 12:54 PM #

    Pack Pride has definitely deteriorated over the years. It seems like all of the intelligent “negative” fans came over here and all of the junior high “sunshiners” and junior high “haters” stayed over there (so you get a bunch of crazy “Herb’s the man” crap after a win, and a bunch of brainless negative crap after a loss—each time followed by the predictable pissing match from the other side). I’m not sure where all of the intelligent “positive” fans went…maybe there’s nothing intelligent about being positive at this point!!

    ACCT Title or Elite 8 / Final Four (I’m still too ticked off from Wed to decide right now) for me…although I wouldn’t call it “intelligent” to bet your money on either of those outcomes based on what I have seen so far.

  11. scott 02/24/2006 at 1:02 PM #

    My biggest worry right now is that Fowler will now use this “great” season as an excuse to give Herb another contract extension.

  12. BJD95 02/24/2006 at 1:06 PM #

    ^ top – you summarized my take on PackPride quite nicely. We do get some intelligent “positive” folks on here, too. As the commenting community grows, the quality of the discussion should only get better.

    Everyone should remember what happened last year – many of us (myself specifically) threw down a “marker” that we met (despite howls of protest of how “unfair” it was by the excuse-making contingent) by making the Sweet Sixteen. I was happy and gave the team and coaching staff great credit for doing so. I’d be very happy to write that blog entry again this year.

  13. Astral Rain 02/24/2006 at 1:06 PM #

    After seeing that, I wonder how many State grads actually took stats in school…

    Getting rankled at work by the UNC fan who relieves me is starting to irritate me… I do notice here that the biggest fans of Sendek are UNC fans.

    ACC Title and/or Elite 8 is the only thing that’s going to make this year something to build on now, but that was before the UNC debacle. Unfortunately, a lot is going to depend on the draw. Hoping NCSU drops to a 6 seed so Elite 8 would be easier.

  14. WhitCanCoach 02/24/2006 at 1:10 PM #

    Making the final 8 would have been a lot easier if we could have positioned ourselves to play in Greensboro in the 1st two rounds.

    Would have been nice for the fans, as well. But, who gives a shit about what they want? As long as Pack Laddie, gravis, Wendell Murphy, and Richard Vaughn can travel to see their boys then all is well with the world.

  15. class of '74 02/24/2006 at 1:14 PM #

    The really intriguing thing developing now is the end of season job carosel. Can you imagine the emotions if Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, Cincinnati or others come calling for Herb’s services? It will be very interesting how this plays out both our seasons ending and the coaching moves. This latest debacle may get some wheels turning on both sides.

  16. Fish 02/24/2006 at 1:30 PM #

    No one will be calling for Sendek’s services. The fact is most programs realize he is not going to hurt their program but he sure as heck is not going to get it to the next level.

    What can be done about changing the mentality of some of our alumni that are preserving relationships with coaches at the cost of moving NCSU forward! It is sickening and disgusting to me! NCSU is bigger than Sendek and Amato. Its about passion, accountability and winning.

  17. Cardiac95 02/24/2006 at 1:38 PM #


    As Jeff has said many times…Those loyal to the program, would welcome change with open arms. Those loyal to Herb Sendek would be distraught for about as long as the coaching search lasted. Then they’d simply throw all their weight behind the new coach.

    And that’s really the difference in a nutshell. For some, unbridled support of the coach IS unbridled support of the program. For others, the program is a bigger entity than any one person.

  18. class of '74 02/24/2006 at 1:40 PM #

    ^Fish I hope you are wrong about the interest in Herb. Does the state lemon law apply to coaches?

  19. Jim 02/24/2006 at 1:44 PM #

    I don’t know what to add that I haven’t already said in response to other articles. I actually came up with the ACCT/final 8 thing myself before I saw anyone else post it. Interesting how there was sort of an independent concencus.

    The team was so bad Wednesday and so unprepared/unmotivated to play in the biggest game (to date) this year that it became that exceptional regular season game with genuine significiance and about which you can make some “program” conclusions. Unless we make the 8 or win the ACCT I am forced to conclude that this “prevent offense” system tops out with what we have gotten this year, which is not enough.

  20. lumberpack 02/24/2006 at 1:45 PM #

    Jeff, packpride is in certain folks back pocket but I’m glad you have gonads enough to post the truth. The rubes and fools continue to swallow the kool aid and say “mm, good”.

  21. JeremyHyatt 02/24/2006 at 2:00 PM #

    i hope they don’t blow it this weekend and very excited about the ACCT. Regardless of how poorly we do against Carolina/Duke, and the other night’s game aside, this year is our best chance to get this done. they will and must bounce back.

  22. BJD95 02/24/2006 at 2:05 PM #

    ^ It is generally true that we tend not to lay 2 terds like that in a row. And we had sure as hell better not do so.

    It’s too bad that Michigan did better this year. That was one potential opening where there very likely would have been mutual interest.

  23. topOtheorder 02/24/2006 at 2:25 PM #

    I wonder if Missouri could become interested in Sendek after all of the cheating, questionable personnel choices, and other seedy crap that they have gone through with Quinn…

    Although Sendek has failed to meet what we all want, he did SLOWLY improve a downtrodden program back to a level of respectability and, on the plus side, he did so without turning a blind eye to academics (as was done at Maryland, Oklahoma, etc.) and has put together a team of solid citizens for sure.

    Afterall, Sendek had the foresight to pass on one of the straws that broke Quinn’s back in Ricky Clemons—even though a lot of fans pummeled Sendek over his inability to land such an “impact” recruit…

    Let’s all write Missouri as if we were Missouri alums and see if we can get a Herb campaign going!!

    (If Herb gets us an ACCT Title or a Final Four this year, we can always start a counter campaign to keep Herb at State…)

  24. Sam '92 02/24/2006 at 2:53 PM #

    There’s a “great divide” among wolfpackers.

    Some love NCSU so much that they don’t want to hear anything negative about the program, coach, team, etc. They are offended by it and respond by accusing the critics of “turning their backs” on the team, school, etc., and they are prepared to live with the level of our program now.

    Others of us love NCSU so much that it burns us up to see our teams treading water in the middle of the ACC. We feel a *responsibility* (not to mention a right) to speak up about the weak points we see — and to agitate for change. We are only satisfied when see a program stiving for excellence and acting to make it happen. needless to say, we aren’t satisfied right now.

    It’s a difference in standards. Some of us will never be satisfied with pretty good, others are. The ones who are willing to accept the state of things seem to hold the reigns right now, and all I can do is post my two cents in forums like this and hope it changes at some point.

  25. Rick 02/24/2006 at 3:00 PM #

    “maybe there’s nothing intelligent about being positive at this point!!”

    This might be my favorite post.

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