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dammit we cannot put Georgia Southern away… what is going on?
Same As It Ever Was…Same As It Ever Was
Halftime Ref meeting:
“Hey fellas!!! This crazy thing they make us put in our mouth isn’t a pacifier…it makes noise when you blow it!!”
“No Way!!!”
“Ah dude we have to use this in the next half.”I’m not quick to judge an entire upcoming season off the first game, especially since we’ve seen how Gottfried’s teams are slow to start. That being said I’m seeing more of the same just with new and better players added to the mix. No offense unless you consider jacking 3’s an offense. Inability to make free throws. Poor defense – rather reach than get low and move their feet along with slow to react help defense.
I don’t know what kills the atmosphere at the stadium more: BC, State’s Suckitude, or the Club Music every 3 seconds?
Don’t worry fellas I’m sure swoff is on the phone right now making sure the refs are looking for tendencies.
I completely agree this weather helps us and hurts them. Anything the negates our piss poor pass defense is a positive. Now just run the dang ball.
We need to dig up 1.21JW’s analysis of the four factors of teams going to various levels in the NCAAT…which goes deeper than just offense vs defense. It seems like you needed to be elite in several of the four factors; but not necessarily all four.
That is correct Va, analysis shows that a vast majority of teams that reach the Final Four are highly efficient in both offense and defense. There are teams that defy the norm but the numbers show if you aren’t elite in both then you’re chances of making the Final Four are pretty small. You are also correct in you don’t need to be elite in all Four Factors (eFG%, OR%, TO%, FTRate), no one is, but here is what you need to be: great at (1) eFG% and (2) either OR% or TO%. This should come as no surprise but if you (a) make your opposition miss their shots and then (b) limit those opportunities by either not allowing second chances or taking the first chance away, then you’re going to have an elite defense. Then you can be average in the other 2 and make it. Offense is a little different and I’d have to go back to refresh my memory on that but still, the importance on the game is (1) eFG%, (2) OR%/TO%, and (4) FTRate.
The biggest difference of them all is the National Champions, they were clearly set apart from the rest who made the final four. This year there’s not much difference between 3 of them (Nova, OU, *NC) and then their is the party crasher Cuse. UConn is the only team over the last dozen years to break the norm in winning it all with lower than elite offensive efficiency but they had the great defense. They not only did it but they did it 3x with 2 different coaches.
On a more analytical level, 1.21JW spent alot of time and effort comparing Gott’s teams to those that make various levels of achievement in the NCAAT.
I remember. I’m no statistician, and I’m sure Jiga is a good one, but it didn’t take a genius to see that the analysis was designed to show up Coach Gott as a bad coach who couldn’t teach defense. It went so far as to predict either we wouldn’t make the tourney or if we did we wouldn’t advance. Then, when we turned the season around, starting winning, and made it to the sweet 16, we never heard another word from Jiga. Everything he was trying to prove about Gott didn’t happen that way.
Normally I wouldn’t give a troll a second thought but I won’t let the hard work I spent on that piece be disparaged without a rebuttal.
I started that series with the single purpose of determining what it takes to reach the Final Four, since National Champions must reach it and reaching the Final Four can be a game changer for a program. I set out to determine what the teams who made the FF had statistically in common from a tempo free standpoint. After I determined what the FF and NC teams had in common, Highly Efficient Defenses, during that time period I expanded it to find out how our current HC (Gottfried) has done over his career. See he’d taken 2 teams to the Sweet 16 and 1 to the Elite 8 and I was curious as to how those and all of his teams during that time period compared. After I compared and found out none of his teams feel within the statistical probability of reaching the FF I then expanded it to research what teams in each round look like. Not once did I set out to bash Gottfried, it was and still is an honest look at him and his teams as to how they compare against the rest of the field and what was his teams’ statistical probabilities of making each round. The same can be applied to any coach if anyone was to use my analysis to research Coach X. So your comment has no truth to it, only your biased point of view.
After I finished the article series I thought it would be interesting to try and use it as predictive tool for likely outcomes. With the overlap of multiple rounds it’s difficult to say exactly which round a team will reach but thanks to Standard Deviations you can use it to determine how far a team should go short of a major upset or baring a miracle run is reaching a certain round just wishful thinking. Looking at the data you can break the tournament down into 3 Tiers: I (R64-S16), II (E8-RU), III (NC). With the exception of 1 season during the time period looked at, Gottfried coached teams (including both S16 runs at State) were Tier I teams when they exited the tournaments. FYI, the single season they finished as a Tier II team they lost in the S16 (underachieved) and his E8 season was a high Tier I team (overachieved). The better his defenses were the better he increased his chances of getting further into the tournament.
The point wasn’t to bash Gottfried but to honestly look at what it takes to win big, highly efficient defenses (usually resulting from low effective FG% and at least 1 other but usually 2 of the other Four Factors) that accompany highly efficient offenses (which is one of Gottfried coached teams strengths).
When it came to last season’s tournament I never said State wouldn’t make the tournament, just that they were falling on the bubble and State came in as a below average Tier I team thus the statistical likely outcome was to lose during the first weekend, more likely the first game. It took a unlikely miracle putback hookshot from Anya to get the win in the R64. They played strong in the win over Villanova but all the talk of great defense in that game isn’t accurate. Nova was within a possession of tying the game in the final minute as State gave up over a point per possession for the entire game, that is not great defense just great offense. In the end a below average Tier I team ended up overachieving but still failing to break out of their Tier.
As for why I haven’t been around it’s frankly no one’s business on here how I spend my time.
Who said anything about blowing up the program? I hate to break peoples bubbles but firing a coach is not akin to 1991 and self sanctioning the program into oblivion. Guess what? Other schools have done this phenomenal thing called upgrading by being proactive before. Just as there’s no guarantee we hire the “next great coach” there’s no guarantee the next guy is going to be the second coming of Les or Sid. No one said anything about firing on a whim either. Smart AD’s have a short list already prepared in case they need to fire or replace a coach who has left. Do we have a smart AD? I have no earthly idea but replacing coaches is part of her job description too.
How many times have wise members on this site said you never make a coaching decision based on incoming recruits?
I don’t care how many f”cking data points you have.
This is why I come to SFN, for the intellectual discussions.
pakfanistan, actually I have +18 data points to infer from, he’s simply only had 3 jobs. Nice try though.
Oh, because you said career, and then talked about it like this,
He either hasn’t been around long enough and gets out while up or he peaked and declined until fired.
Which pretty clearly references Murray St. and Alabama, so I naturally made the connection to the number of jobs he’s had.
And what exactly else are we supposed to look at when evaluating a coach? I noticed you didn’t dispute anything that I said was factual, just the manner in which I said it.
And then you said,
. He starts out average and progressively gets worse season after season
He got better each year at Murray St. He was up and down at Alabama, he’s bookended the last four years with S16s here….
I just can’t make your assertions match up with “18” data points.
Congratulations on winning the Award for quoting someone completely out of context. You can pick up your award in the women’s restroom next to the mail room.
If you read the previous sentence I was talking about his defense. Not only that you cut off the last part of the sentence you were quoting that shows I referred to W/L results following the decline of defense. As you already pointed out there were only 2 previous jobs prior to State, one of which he left after just a few years, and the other was an extended stay at Alabama. I assumed people could follow my thoughts without having to spell out every single detail, I was wrong.
I’ve been happy with Gott’s tenure here to this point with the exception being the seemingly high attrition rate of his teams each year. We’ve got a phenom PG coming in next year. I’d say if you can’t “see an upward trajectory” from this point then that means you’re just not looking for one.
Let’s take a shot in the dark and say Barber leaves after this season and Gottfried doesn’t land any more immediate impact players. I know, I’m really stretching the limits of reality on this. Just ask Cat what it’s like to be a phenom PG, alone, on this team.
pakfanistan, actually I have +18 data points to infer from, he’s simply only had 3 jobs. Nice try though.
Gowolves, it’s a strawman question because (a) I’m not able to fire and hire coaches so I don’t have to take the time to figure out who the next great coach is and (b) AD’s hire consultants to do that for them (who have done the research) and they don’t even know. No one has a crystal ball and you know that. Many factors go into being a great coach and while Gottfried has some of those qualities he’s lacking in others.
Talent alone doesn’t win games but let’s go there since you brought it up. How many successes with bringing in talent will it take for Gottfried to win? 3? 5? 10? What level of talent are we talking about here? Immediate impact 5 stars (top 10)? I seriously would like to know because everyone raves about the STAHS he’s brought in but it hasn’t been enough. How many will it take to win and what will it take to bring them in in order to win? He’s not a fresh face anymore, recruits have a recent history on him to make decisions.
“Most college kids don’t want to play defense.”
So now college kids dictate what the coach can and can’t do? Might want to tell Calipari or Bennett this, they’ll be in for a real shock when they hear it. College coaches are paid millions of dollars to win games. If an average coach stresses and teaches great defense and a player doesn’t want to play defense then an average coach would inform that player who is in charge or that player wouldn’t be on the team.
I said more than likely peaked because I don’t have a crystal ball. I only have Gottfried’s previous results and hundreds of other data points from dozens of other coaches results to draw my conclusion from, not Hope.
