ACC BB Update – One Month Left

A month from tomorrow, the ACC Tournament will tip off in Brooklyn. I’m curious how good/bad the attendance will be. But with 15 teams, it shouldn’t be hard to fill the 17,700 seat Barclay Center. I suspect that reasoning along with the desire to spread the ACC’s influence all the way up the East Coast sparked the ACC’s office to move the tournament to the far north. It will be interesting to see how the interest versus the expense balances out for ACC fans. Hopefully it will turn out better than staging the ACC football championship in Florida.

If you watched the State/Miami game, you might have heard Dan Bonner comment about the fact that the season was just past the halfway point and there was still time left for teams to improve their record. So let’s see who took advantage of the first week in the second half of the ACC regular season:

 

RPI SUMMARY TABLE

(Table info from ESPN)

Good Week (2-0) Duke, UNC, WF, SYR, FSU

Bad Week (0-2) ND, Pitt, BC, NCSU, GT

Just after getting a ton of press here last week, GT stumbled hard on the road against Clemson and WF. But that’s typical of what we see in the Muddled Middle – big wins at home and a ton of struggles on the road.

ND was pretending to be a conference leader, but they’re riding a four-game losing streak (and have lost 5 of their last 6). That’s NOOOOT TOOO GOOOOD.

SYR had a very good week with a home win against UVA and the road win in Raleigh. This week is the first time this year that they’ve been up in the Bubble zone. (Note that they only have one road win in the ACC this year.)

I’ve given WF a hard time all year long. They still don’t have a top-50 win, but 2-0 last week and an overall ACC record of 5-6 is good enough to be IN (at least for now). As I mentioned last week, they don’t have many chances for a noteworthy home win. They have L’ville at home on 3/1 and that’s their only chance in Winston for something to catch the NCAAT Selection Committee’s attention. They have several more chances on the road at Duke, ND, and VT. A Top 50 win is not an absolute, absolute requirement. But you don’t need very many fingers to count all of the at-large bids extended without one.

 

RPI TREND GRAPHS

Clemson keeps bouncing back and forth between our two graphs. So they’re on both this week.

VT only played one game last week (loss at UVA) and are riding the line between our graphs at #40. I put them in the Bubble zone because of their horrid OOC SOS; currently ranked 300+.

As mentioned earlier, GT struggled last week on the road and were actually passed by SYR. Let’s look a little closer at both teams.

The two teams both went into the ACC schedule in horrible shape. GT started strong out of the gate with a home win against UNC. SYR dug the hole a little deeper by losing at BC. Neither team has an OOC schedule to brag about; but GT’s is much worse (#278 vs #171). Add in GT’s tougher ACC schedule to date and the net result is that SYR needed 7 wins to pass GT with their five wins.

If either team can get an at-large bid, they would set a record for the biggest recovery since I’ve been tracking RPI. Note that neither team is tearing up the road schedule. GT has 4 remaining at home (3 on road) and SYR has four on the road; three at home (L’ville, Duke and GT). The GT/SYR game to end the regular season looks a lot more interesting now than it did five weeks ago.

 

THE DANCE CARD

I’m sure that many of you are quite familiar with The Dance Card. For those that are not, two college professors have been using statistical methods to analyze past at-large bids to the NCAAT to develop a mathematical technique to predict the bids for the current season. It’s important to note that the professors are focused solely on clearing the Bubble and not seeding the teams selected for the NCAAT.

At present, the professors are updating their rankings on a weekly basis. (Later on, they will update the standings on a daily basis.) For now, here are their standings based on games played thru 1/29/17. I’m assuming that they’ll update sometime on Monday. I’ll edit this and add their latest standings when they’re published (and when I can get to it).

I don’t trend the Dance Card from one week to the next because they only publish weekly for most of the season (not that I blame them for that). When they start publishing daily, interested fans can get an instant update where as I am only doing weekly summaries. Plus I’m happy with letting the professors do their own math and just view their results.

When we get an update, it will be interesting to see how the last four ACC teams in move as well as SYR.

 

ACC STANDINGS

I wouldn’t have bet a plug nickel after the first game of the year of SYR ever passing Duke in the ACC Standings. I guess that’s why they play the games.

There are four teams within a game of each other in the Wed/Thurs split. There’s only a half-game between the four teams closest to the Tue/Wed split. So there are still lots on the line for most of the conference.

I couldn’t decide the best place to talk about Clemson, but here’s where it ended up. Mired in the middle of the Tuesday group at 3-7 in conference, you wouldn’t think that there would be much to talk about. But their conference ranking doesn’t match their RPI ranking of 45; so the discrepancy seemed worth discussing. Let’s start by summarizing their Top 100 wins and all of their losses:

(Rankings from CBS because I like their format) (Note that there are frequently differences in RPI Rankings between ESPN and CBS.)

There’s obviously no guarantee that Clemson’s wins will stay where they are. But when you look at three Top-50 wins and an RPI ranking of #45, I would normally conclude they’re awfully close to having an at-large bid sewn up before the ACCT. But the Selection Committee’s past actions make it clear that they don’t like teams with losing conference records. FSU was left out one year with an RPI Ranking of something like 42 and a 7-9 conference record. What FSU lacked that year over several other ACC teams with a 7-9 record (including State in 2005) was an impressive win in the ACC tournament.

Logically you could argue that this type of decision isn’t reasonable. The Selection Committee has made it plain that they want teams to play at least a reasonably difficult schedule and beat top teams (both of which Clemson has done) to prove that you are good enough for the NCAAT. Why should it matter if those big wins are OOC or during the conference season or conference tournament?

I don’t have a good answer for my own question, but I do remember what we’ve learned in the past. Depending on how Clemson finishes up, their position in the NCAAT or the NIT could break new ground for future bubble discussion. Here’s their remaining schedule:

(Rankings and schedule from ESPN)

An 8-10 record is doable. Anything less and Clemson’s chances at the NCAAT will start to get dicey at best.

 

UPCOMING ACC SCHEDULE

Louisville gets consecutive Monday night games. I wonder who they pissed off?

If you’re wondering about why I didn’t talk about State this week, go back and read my conclusion on State towards the bottom of last week’s entry. State’s OOC SOS has tumbled from being in Top 100 down to nearly 200 today….not that it really makes any difference. I guess I was too distracted by the losing to focus on SOS over the last few weeks.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Home Forums ACC BB Update – One Month Left

This topic contains 9 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by  VaWolf82 2 years, 9 months ago.

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  • #116604

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    A month from tomorrow, the ACC Tournament will tip off in Brooklyn. I’m curious how good/bad the attendance will be.
    [See the full post at: ACC BB Update – One Month Left]

    #116612

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Somebody said ND was a fraud in last week’s thread (or week before), methinks!!

    All they do is jack up 3s and they rebound even worse than we do.

    Not sure about the rest of our foes, but Creighton lost their PG and is in absolute freefall. Illinois was always dogshit, and their losses keep piling up, assume the RPI #s are finally catching up.

    That game was more inexplicable than any of our home ACC bedshittings.

    #116616

    Daniel_Simpson_Day
    Participant

    My “worry meter” didn’t move after the loss to Creighton or the early wins with narrow margins. When we lost to Illinois, I looked up their recent b-ball history to see how good/bad they were and I wasn’t impressed. Then I read some of their scouting reports. I remember pointing out at the end of the game thread that Illinois was projected to be one of the worst B10 teams. That L was my uh-oh moment.
    My preseason prediction: “ACC finish around 5th with 5 or 6 conference losses; no more than 2 OOC losses.” – holy cow was that an awful prediction.
    Question, as you guys read these weekly reports do your shoulders feel like they are slumping lower and lower?

    #116617

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    as you guys read these weekly reports do your shoulders feel like they are slumping lower and lower?

    That’s a fair question and I won’t argue with anyone’s position. Through the pain of the Les/early Herb years I just tuned out on ACC basketball. If I wasn’t doing anything, I would catch the start of a State game and turn it as soon as it would get ugly. Some of my fondest victories over UNC came during the Les era because they were so unexpected. But I couldn’t stand to watch good teams because it just reminded me of how bad State was.

    Eventually, I realized that I actually liked college basketball and had missed out on a lot of great ACC players because of the pitiful condition of State’s program. So I decided to watch BB when I could and skip State if they became unwatchable. Frankly, State has sucked so many years out of the last 25 that I just don’t get worked up about it any more.

    So no, my shoulders aren’t slumping. I even work up enough interest to put in the time it takes to do an update that I’m happy with. They’re a lot more fun when these updates spark interesting discussions. But that hasn’t happened much this year.

    #116619

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Agreed, VA. Think part of the problem is that I have yet to find a team or story that has really grabbed my interest this year. Everyone seems just so middling.

    #116628

    Hamlet
    Participant

    VaWolf82,

    I have not replied to a post or joined the conversation on SFN for several years, but I still come here at least once daily to follow the active threads and read the posts from you and others. Just wanted to tell you that I thoroughly enjoy your ACC BB Updates and never miss the chance to read them. I am sure there are quite a few others of us out there…even if we do not join the debates or take the time to respond or acknowledge your work. Thanks for taking the time to write and compile the data for these very informative updates.

    #116638

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    OK… it’s early February and we’re 3 and 8 in the Conference and not what anybody expected…
    yes… that hurt a bit to type…

    Looking ahead…

    There’s six regular season games left on the schedule…
    FSU, WF, UN*, ND, GT && CU

    ON PAPER…. that’s 3 ‘winnable’ games… or for you wiseguys…games where we’re getting or giving 7 points or less…
    ———————–

    We are NOT playing consistent…

    which means… yeah, we could beat any one of those teams if we played our best that night and they didn’t…
    BUT that’s just like golfing and how many of you guys that golf make a birdie once or twice every round and average 85 more or less for the round ??? I know I did that plenty of times….

    AND we could easily go O–FOR….

    SO… 5-11 … I forget where I heard that first…
    plus or minus 1 is looking pretty close to the money on this thing from down here…

    No Joy In Mudville.

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #116647

    Adventuroo
    Participant

    Technically, and I made the same mistake….we have an 18 game conference schedule….

    http://gopack.com/news/2016/9/12/pack-announce-2016-17-mens-basketball-schedule.aspx?path=mbball

    SO, if we run the table from here on out….we will have a winning season as we are now 3 & 8. Add in 7 more wins…..VIOLA….(or Bass Fiddle), we are 10 & 8.

    Not really that difficult….just develop a defense. Figure out what the opposition will be running and then have the scout squad at peak performance so that we are up to “it”.

    However, my “ODDS” are that we win 2 more and finish 5 & 13…..but you never know. Some teams get overconfident and look past us…..we need more local articles telling our opponents how easy it is to beat us….

    #116673

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Updated Dance Card thru Sunday night’s games

    GT (0-2 last week) dropped below the bubble. SYR moved just in.
    State’s ranking is plummeting as the losses mount and as their OOC SOS tanks.

    There are a couple of things that I forgot to include in the main entry:

    SYR is riding a four-game winning streak that includes home wins against UVA and FSU. That ain’t too shabby.

    If you look at the Dance Card table in the main entry (thru 1/29); there were 10 ACC teams projected into the field and four more within striking distance. I’ve never seen anything quite that good. From my seat, everyone except State, Pitt, and BC has a legitimate shot at making the tournament. It will be interesting to see which teams in the middle can finish the deal.

    I’m also curious about just how far ND will drop.

    #116674

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Just wanted to tell you that I thoroughly enjoy your ACC BB Updates and never miss the chance to read them

    Thanks for that. I enjoy putting the stats and graphs together. The writing/editing…not so much. (I’m an engineer, sue me.)

    It’s not hard for me to understand the lack of comments. How many different ways can you say that State is bad? Besides, it’s just not any fun. Traffic and comments will pick up when there are good things to talk about. Unfortunately, there are not many good things to talk about in our two revenue sports.

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