It’s hard to complain about NC State’s bowl options in a season where we really didn’t do much with our opportunities. Forget the UNC game for a moment, losses in VERY winnable games vs Louisville and Virginia Tech changed the complexion of the season and now we are at the mercy of the ‘Bowl Gods’.
As is the case every year, the national media simply doesn’t have the horsepower or time to truly understand all of the nuances of bowl selection. For example, Jerry Palm’s Bowl Projections on CBS Sports shows the Military Bowl choosing Pitt and the Pinstripe Bowl choosing State. I don’t even know if that is possible based on the ‘geographic slotting’ that happens in the different bowl tiers as it would feel as though Pitt would end up in NYC and State would end up in the Military. Nonetheless, Joe Giglio – who has much more ‘inside’ info – highlights that the key cog in that scenario is that the Military is leaning towards choosing Duke (over State) to match up with Navy. If that is a surprise to you, then you need to realize that in 2015 things are different than they were 10 to 20 years ago — TELEVISION ratings drive bowl choices much more than selling tickets.
One thing to remember, the entire bowl landscape is fluid and is highly reliant on dominoes that fall in front of you. If another bowl goes ‘off script’ or ultimately chooses to go a direction that serves as a surprise for some reason then things can change quickly. You may remember that State was knocked out of the Belk Bowl last year when Notre Dame ‘fell’ out of the New Year’s games and therefore took a spot in the ACC’s order that knocked State down a slot. Giglio is stating that very scenario could help State this year if/as Florida State is able to hold onto a New Year’s Six bowl bid.
IF FLORIDA STATE MOVES UP, THERE WOULD BE A SPOT IN EITHER THE TAXSLAYER OR MUSIC CITY FOR AN ACC TEAM. N.C. STATE AND LOUISVILLE (7-5) ARE THE TWO TEAMS CONSIDERED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT GOING TO THE FORMER GATOR BOWL.
One thing is for sure, it would be very nice for Coach Doeren to find at least the semblance of a signature win in this year’s bowl game.
You can read Giglio’s entire article linked here.
The ACC bowl selections will be determined next Sunday after the CFP games are set.
One thing was clear on Saturday, N.C. State would have been in Charlotte for the Belk Bowl on Dec. 30 if it had beaten the Tar Heels.
After falling behind 35-7 in the first quarter on Saturday, that bid was squashed for the Wolfpack, which won the Belk Bowl in 2005 and 2011.
The Belk Bowl has the first option of choosing Virginia Tech (6-6) among the ACC’s Tier I bowl games. Since it’s coach Frank Beamer’s last game, the Hokies will likely be playing in Charlotte.
N.C. State did get some help from Florida State on Saturday night. The Seminoles’ 27-2 win over Florida might move them up high enough in the CFP rankings to qualify for an at-large spot in a “New Year’s 6” bowl.
Florida State was ranked No. 13 last week by the CFP committee and Florida was No. 12. Last year. The lowest-ranked team to get an at-large spot last year was No. 10.
If Florida State moves up, there would be a spot in either the TaxSlayer or Music City for an ACC team. N.C. State and Louisville (7-5) are the two teams considered to have the best chance at going to the former Gator Bowl.
If Florida State doesn’t qualify for an “NY6” game, which is based strictly on the rankings, than the Noles would take the ACC’s spot in the Gator Bowl.
The Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La. and the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit are in what the ACC calls its “Tier II” bowls.
The Military Bowl in Annapolis, Md. gets the first choice among Tier II bowls and is likely to select Duke (7-5) to face Navy.
The Independence Bowl picks after the Military Bowl and would potentially have a choice between N.C. State and Louisville, depending on what happens with Florida State.
The Detroit bowl picks last in Tier II and would not get an ACC team if FSU moved up to a NY6 game. If FSU stays in the ACC pool, Detroit would get the team, either State or Louisville, that the Independence doesn’t take.