(Not So) Great Expectations and Near Misses

NCSUbasketball

As the ’13-’14 edition of Wolfpack Basketball prepares itself for the upcoming season (only 9 days and counting…if one counts exhibition contests, that is), much is being talked about regarding the Pack’s significantly lowered expectations as compared to this time one year ago.

NC State basketball: What went wrong in disappointing 2012-13 season (NewsObserver.com)

— Chairs can’t talk, but the empty ones around Mark Gottfried said it all.

This is the difference a year makes for the N.C. State basketball coach and his program. A year ago, the Wolfpack was the talk of the ACC, the sexy preseason pick – top 10 in the country and the choice of both the coaches and the media to win the ACC.

[snip]

Then came a disappointing fifth-place ACC finish and an opening-round loss in the NCAA tournament. Fast forward to Wednesday, back in the same Charlotte hotel. While the media’s double-stacked around Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, as they would be later around North Carolina’s Roy Williams, there are five people and 12 seats at Gottfried’s table.

[snip]

“We have a completely different team,” Gottfried said. “We’re in a different place.”

Were the expectations too high last year?  Some of us around these parts thought it at least a possibility, and weren’t hesitant to say as much.  But there can be little doubt that even if that bar of expectation was set too high a year ago, the results which did eventually happen were, at times, little better than a train wreck even still.  Or a dumpster fire.  Feel free to pick your own terminology.

[Lorenzo] Brown said he felt responsible for the team’s 11-7 ACC record. He led the ACC in assists (7.2 per game) but said he should have done more, even before an ankle injury cost him two and half conference games.

Brown shot 20 of 76 (26.3 percent) from 3-point range, which he said should have been better. He said wasn’t aggressive enough.

“Our offense never clicked like it did the year before,” Brown said. “That was on me, I needed to do more.”

[snip]

“We had some immaturity at times,” Gottfried said after the Temple game. “It just seemed hard at times to have everybody buy in all the way.”

Gottfried has since said it was difficult to blend the returning players with the new players.

[snip]

“As freshmen, we looked up to the older players,” said guard Tyler Lewis, a reserve freshman on last year’s team. “If we saw them having a bad day or being lazy, we felt like we could as well.”

So then, what of this year’s significantly lowered expectations?

With returning McD AA’s TJ Warren and Tyler Lewis, and with a considerable load of incoming talent, both freshmen and transfers, are this year’s lowered expectations as much of a kneejerk response to last year’s results, as last year’s pre-season hype was to the Sweet Sixteen run to end the ’11-’12 campaign?

Yes and no, I think.

This year’s team has talent and boatloads of potential.  But it also has a LOT of new parts which will need to learn to work together.  How quickly those parts can mesh and become a cohesive unit, all pulling in the same direction, will determine when, and to what extent, this team realizes its potential.

When do YOU think that might happen?  March?  February?  Lest we dream…January?

Should we go ahead and chalk this up as WTNY already?

Tell us what you think.

About Wufpacker

A 2nd generation alumnus and raised since birth to be irrationally dedicated to all things NC State. Class of '88 and '92.

13-14 Basketball

36 Responses to (Not So) Great Expectations and Near Misses

  1. redcanine 10/21/2013 at 12:48 PM #

    Lorenzo pretty much nailed it with his comment “I needed to do more”, because it wasn’t gonna come from anyone else.

    Now it’s Tyler’s team. I think he can keep our regular season losses at 11/12 or fewer. Think/hope…whatever.

  2. 13OT 10/21/2013 at 12:58 PM #

    We have to play all 3 new ACC teams on the road, but get only Pitt at home. Plus, we don’t get to play Duke at home. Our OOC road games at UNC, Cincinnati and Tennessee won’t be easy, and neither will our home games with Missouri and Long Beach State. However, I like a more difficult schedule for preparing the team over the cupcakes we usually play.

    The Ws may not be as many as we like, but I’m optimistic that this team will get more out of its players now that #5 and #12 have moved on.

  3. wolffpride 10/21/2013 at 1:24 PM #

    I would think that we will be better defensively given what I have heard about Barber and Lee as perimeter defenders and Washington and Freeman as post defenders. Anya and Berg can be good shot blockers as well. Should be good rebounding this year also. I like that we could have a more blue collar team this year. The youth will hurt at times, but we have a chance at making the tourney. Can’t wait until the UC game, I’ll be there yelling at people.

  4. old13 10/21/2013 at 1:42 PM #

    “If ‘if’s’ and ‘buts’ were . . . ” That is our coming season in a nut shell IMO, and will be fun to watch. Questions and youth abound – too unpredictable a mix to have decent odds for any bet. But from all accounts to date, the team’s persona is one of “liking each other” and being hard workers. So it will be fun seeing how things develop.

    The only disappointment I have at this point is Anya’s physical condition. He can’t block any shots or get D rebounds if he can’t get there before the opposition shoots. Maybe S&C can succeed in some crash program to address it. But that isn’t the best way to do it.

  5. PoppaJohn 10/21/2013 at 2:19 PM #

    1) Hate that Zo feels that way. He was great, tough team to manage. I don’t blame him at all.
    2) Tough to predict this year since we really haven’t seen any of these guys, other than Tyler, JV and TJ, play.
    3) Rebounding could be a big problem.

    Here’s my guess – 17/14 regular season. ACCT 2 wins, NIT 2 wins – 21/16 over all.

    Preseason, we have 13 games. I say we’ll win 9 of them, guessing that we’ll lose the two road games (Cincy, Tenn) and to LBS & Missou.

    Regular season; 8 of 18
    Win only two road games – at the U and Clemson. Young teams struggle on the road.
    Lose to all the top tier teams (DU, SY, NC, UVA)
    Beat UMD, GT, FSU, U, WF, CU, U, BC (CU & U on road)

  6. tvp1 10/21/2013 at 2:38 PM #

    The expectations were always unrealistic last year. I expected a team that would be in the top 20-25 range, about a 6 seed. They weren’t far off that (8 seed).

    Painter transferring hurt a lot more than most realized. Then Zo’s injury, at the worst possible time, cost us at least 1, if not 2 games and a top 4 ACC seed. The only real disappointment to me was the crap performance against Temple (granted, it was a major disappointment).

    I’ll always love last year’s team for the blitz they put on UNC in the first half of the home win. That was about as good as it gets for an NC State fan.

    As for this year, we are being undersold a bit. We still have 3 McD AAs, plus a guy who was a solid BCS level starter (Turner). We will match up with almost anyone at the 1-3 spots. I’m reasonably confident that we can squeeze a decent 4 out of Washington/Freeman/spot minutes from TJ against smaller lineups. We need either Vandy or Anya to be a solid rim protector/rebounder/garbage bucket maker who can play 25 minutes a night at the 5. If that happens and TJ/Tyler stay healthy, this team will sneak into the NCAAs and be well positioned for a serious ACC challenge in 2014-15.

    I’d rate State 8th in the ACC, ahead of BC (lacks talent outside of Hanlan and Anderson) and FSU (hard to see them improving without Snaer and with defections/Rathan-Mayes not qualifying).

  7. JohnGalt78 10/21/2013 at 2:57 PM #

    I like the difficult schedule. Might help us in post-season (whatever that might be). I think the regular season might find us close to .500 (-) in the conference thus making the ACCT our “moment in time” for 2013-2014. Home court early in the NIT. We will beat UNCheat at PNC this year, however.

    I expect better defense this year…but I realize that ain’t asking much. I think all the newbies vying for PT will drive much of the defensive effort. Don’t defend….don’t play…least I hope they are coached that way. These are Gott’s guy. Hopefully he’ll take ownership of ’em and feel like he can kick some ass.

    Gawd, I hope they have some harmony this year. Hate to see locker room drama and it’s effect on the W-L.

    I don’t see Lewis taking a night off…EVER. Kid comes to play. He has a big, healthy, productive chip on his shoulder. No ‘tude. This will be an improvement at the 1. LoB had his skills, he just didn’t always use them.

    Lot of preseason hype on TJW. That worries me a bit. Yes, he was really good last year. But all the attention/expectation reminds me of the preseason hype the whole team got last year.

    Somebody tweet Anya the link to this site. That should take care of his weight problem. Brutal.

  8. wufpup76 10/21/2013 at 5:01 PM #

    I think we have a good shot at making the tournament.

    The schedule alone dictates that with a couple of surprise wins we’d definitely be in the mix given that we do enough against teams we can beat. Of course, you never know how the season will play out and it’s too early to tell ‘the teams we can beat’.

    Like usual, I hope the team is firing on all cylinders by (or in) February with the lessons of a tough schedule sinking in. Huge bonus if we can get it going in January (maybe Wufpacker, you never know). I just hope – also as usual – that fans can take the roller coaster in the early months without bringing out the pitchforks. The regular season is an endurance race, the NCAA tournament is the sprint.

    As for the schedule, I do not know why coaches would ever deviate from Gottfried’s scheduling philosophy. How to properly schedule and give yourself the max possibility of being selected as an at-large is a known quantity.

    Pompous windbag and huge HWSNBN supporter Jim Boeheim has only recently realized that his team would be penalized for not leaving the state of New York before February. And yet he still cries – every year – about not being able to get into the tournament by playing a 300+ ranked OOC schedule. These coaches – some of them are amazing in their grandiose.

  9. wilmwolf80 10/21/2013 at 5:08 PM #

    Call me crazy, and I’m sure you will, but I feel ok about this season going in. It’s very easy to see in retrospect, but the chemistry issues last year killed that team. I feel hopeful that the cancer is gone from the locker room. You can win a lot more games with hard work and good attitudes than you can with paper talent and selfishness. Basketball is a team game after all.

    And one final postscript on last year’s team. Yes, they were a disappointment. They did, however, provide me as a fan with some of the most excitement that I have experienced in the regular season in at least a decade. And for that, I am grateful.

  10. Fastback68 10/21/2013 at 5:48 PM #

    In year one, Gott wired a team together and made the NCAA tourney. There are many more quality players / pieces to work with this year and I am really more excited about the incoming class then last year’s because they fill positions of need. We have enough players to run, run, run, to substitute, to sit when they make mistakes or when their head is not in the game, to foul , foul and foul some more when we face bludgeon ball opponents, to rebound, to block shots, to play actual defense, to play some press coverage for once.

    Out of conference 10-3, ACC 9-9, ACCT 3 wins = 22 – 13 and we go dancing! Go Pack and CAT stop giving me heart attacks.

  11. Pack Mentality 10/21/2013 at 5:53 PM #

    Last year was definitely no Zo’s fault. We had 2 other fictitious “lottery picks” on that team who didn’t live up to their billing. This year I really do hope that playing like dogs*** for long periods of time is enough of a reason to sit on the bench and let someone else have a shot at some playing time.

  12. BJD95 10/21/2013 at 7:16 PM #

    As I started warning before last season…the media overreacted to the good run at the end of 2011-12. And as I predicted after last season, they would (and have) overreacted in the other direction after we “burned” them.

    This is a pretty good team, with talent and some real weaknesses, too. Like many others in high D-1. Fortunately, I think we have an open-minded staff that can creatively leverage what we DO have.

    Making the tourney isn’t that hard. It just isn’t. Sorry, HWSNBN. And we have already made things a sh-t ton easier by playing a balanced OOC schedule. That, along with the strong ACC that we all expect to finally re-materialize, will give us ample growth opportunities, along with numerous shots at resume wins.

    My prediction stays the same – 4th to 7th (8th at worst) and definitely a dance ticket. It’s only a dumpster fire if we miss the NIT, but NIT season will put heavy pressure on next season.

  13. choppack1 10/21/2013 at 7:24 PM #

    See. I don’t think that we were overrated going into the year…that was proven by how well the team played when it felt like it.

    What I didn’t expect was the coaching staff letting a perfectly serviceable back up sit on the bench…nor did I expect the players to run the team.

    Hopefully this team will play harder and there will be some accountability if not…

  14. Pack1998 10/21/2013 at 8:45 PM #

    Being realistic – thinking about it now — very impressed we made the NCAA 2 years in a row the last 2 years. We were last in the ACC the year prior to Gott.

    I think Warren and Lewis are good for the team as the leaders; they balance each other. We should be upper middle (or maybe just middle) of the ACC. Will be 2 more years before we come close to being an ACC Regular season champ; will take my chances on Lewis’s 4th year.

    I actually think we make the NCAA this year. We may have a lot of losses, but SOS and RPI due to the new ACC will help.

    And hey . . . if Gott makes a 3rd NCAA in 3 years, he is 60% worth the value of Herb in less than 1/3 of the time. Let Jay Bilas bronze Gott now.

  15. cWOhLFrPAiCKs 10/21/2013 at 9:53 PM #

    My biggest concern is offensive playmakers in the half court. Warren was great at being in the right place at the right time in transition but didn’t seem to thrive in the half court. Maybe TL/Barber running the point will help him, but with little to no low post presence, it will be a difficult year.

    Regardless, I’ll be rooting for these guys to make the best of this year.

  16. john of sparta 10/21/2013 at 9:56 PM #

    +1 choppack1.
    scoreboard.

  17. Master 10/21/2013 at 11:00 PM #

    I just want to see a team that plays hard the entire game each and every night. If they do that and finish with a losing season, I will still be happy.

    To witness our best talent in DECADES loaf around the court, toss half interested passes to the other team and generally play like they were in the losers bracket of an AAU tourney, just made me MAD AS HELL!

    If that happens again, we need a new coach. If we play hard and lose, give him an extension.

    Bottom line – Play hard or go home!

  18. FunPack 10/22/2013 at 1:08 AM #

    “This year’s team has talent and boatloads of potential. ”

    Personally I think it is too early to say this. I don’t think we know what we actually have, and won’t until we play a few ACC games. We, just like all fans of all teams, tend to overvalue our own players. I suppose that’s human nature, to have an emotional investment in the team and thus in the individuals on it. But for right now there is no way we can be sure what we really have or how well they will play together.

    I will be optimistic like always, and will cheer like always (and scream at my TV too), but I have very modest expectations for the final outcome of the season. The best thing this season can do is shake out just who the players are, show who is willing to play defense, and show if anyone turns out to have an attitude issue. We need this young team to develop the players and build for the following year. If we can go .500 or better and reach a postseason tourney, that’s even better and will give us a pretty good idea how good a coach Gottfried can be too.

  19. graywolf 10/22/2013 at 7:11 AM #

    I think Gottfried is a good(not great) X & O’s guy but no psychologist. You have to have the it factor somewhere…either on the floor or behind the scenes dealing with players (psychology). As much as I hate to say it I think K has some of both. V had some of both and this is what makes everything gel.
    The potential for this team is through the roof but I will have to wait and see how this team molds itself into a winner or also ran.

  20. howlie 10/22/2013 at 8:17 AM #

    I think we’re somewhere between a BC & VT of last year. If we have everyone working if perfect sync, we may pull off a surprise or two, & be a ‘tough nut’ for opponents when they play us at our place, but [despite the 3McDs] can’t ‘out-athlete’ the top teams in the the league [as last year].

    Frankly, I DON’T see us being a team working in sync… Anya & Vandy are square pegs for our round holes, & play different styles when each is in the game. We’ll have four decent/solid players on the court, with one ‘developing player.’

    Washington and Freeman–playing in tandem–will have to be our ‘staples’ down low, and they (as much as I am excited about their future) will just need an ‘adjustment year’ to learn how to play in the ACC.

    We need three DOMINATING guards to drive and set up bigs with ‘drop off’ passes so they can pop the mid-range shots and/or underneath stuff. I’m not sure we have that fully on either the initiating or receiving end.

    We look to be one great player away this year, & WILL be there next year. I just hope we’re fun to watch in this growing year, and that the frustration of being ‘worked over’ by more experienced and talented teams doesn’t fracture the team psyche.

  21. newt 10/22/2013 at 8:49 AM #

    Agree wholeheartedly with BJD95’s assessment.

    The idiot media doesn’t know what the heck it’s talking about.

    We have more talent this year than last year but given the inexperience are probably about the same level of team.

    We should make the NCAAs. Again, as BJ points out, making the NCAAs is not that big of an accomplishment and it’s a little crazy how low our sights have dropped. You oughta be able get there with several Mickey D’s on your roster, freshmen or not.

  22. 13OT 10/22/2013 at 9:42 AM #

    Last season’s team needed a psychiatrist, not a psychologist.

  23. Pack Mentality 10/22/2013 at 10:09 AM #

    No matter what the circumstances of the team personnel are, not making the NCAA tournament is a failure of a season. Winning the NIT tournament is FAR worse than losing in the first round of the NCAA. If we only make the NIT this year it is a failed season regardless of the inexperience on the team.

  24. PoppaJohn 10/22/2013 at 10:36 AM #

    I think comments that Gott doesn’t know how to manage the psychological aspects of the team are premature. You could be right, but basing that assessment on last year is an incomplete picture. Remember he’s the guy that got “Calvin” to play much better his first year here. Rich Howell got in great shape and excelled Gott’s two years. Zo became an excellent point guard, good enough to get drafted. That first team played well pretty together.
    But we lose a some very important role players, the guys that play hard and consistently every game, and we have a mess on our hands.
    I hate that we lost Painter – we really needed him. And we probably should never have drafted Purvis, but he was a five star player in our back yard. We had to give him a shot.
    I suggest the jury is still out. Let’s see what he can do with his own players, and with the opportunity to build a great team from the ground up. He’s done some good stuff, and he’s made some mistakes. Hopefully he’ll learn from the latter and continue the former.

  25. VaWolf82 10/22/2013 at 10:38 AM #

    The NBA draft showed that way too many people were using high school rankings to project NCAA performance. As shown by State’s 12/13 season, that technique has some serious flaws.

Leave a Reply