First, a Cliffs Notes style bubble guide. Here’s who you want to lose today: Texas, Colorado State, Northwestern (though I don’t have the heart for that one), Alabama, Mississippi State. If 3 of those happen, then I think two wins definitely get NC State in. You will also want to expend rooting juju when the Atlantic 10 tourney gets back into full swing (Xavier, St. Joe’s, Dayton being the teams to watch).
Why do I say root against Texas, but hope that Miami wins (and I hope they win twice)? Two reasons. First, most projections have Texas ahead of State, and Miami behind us. As long as we win as much as Da U in da ACCT, we will stay in front, IMHO. Second, we beat Miami twice and Texas only once (and in fluky fashion). Going from 1 Top 50 win to 3 is a huge jump. Going from 1 to 2 still leaves a “meh” resume line.
I usually do a full ACCT analysis, but JP Giglio does a great one in this morning’s paper. I agree with him that I only see three realistic possible winners – Holes, Noles, and Canes (good matchups). But I would be shocked if anyone other than the Holes cut down the nets. They are paying attention and need to win out to keep their 1 seed. I only see two teams that can beat a focused Hole squad, and Syracuse and Kentucky are otherwise occupied this weekend.