Thursday Pre-Caffeinated Thoughts

First, a Cliffs Notes style bubble guide. Here’s who you want to lose today: Texas, Colorado State, Northwestern (though I don’t have the heart for that one), Alabama, Mississippi State. If 3 of those happen, then I think two wins definitely get NC State in. You will also want to expend rooting juju when the Atlantic 10 tourney gets back into full swing (Xavier, St. Joe’s, Dayton being the teams to watch).

Why do I say root against Texas, but hope that Miami wins (and I hope they win twice)? Two reasons. First, most projections have Texas ahead of State, and Miami behind us. As long as we win as much as Da U in da ACCT, we will stay in front, IMHO. Second, we beat Miami twice and Texas only once (and in fluky fashion). Going from 1 Top 50 win to 3 is a huge jump. Going from 1 to 2 still leaves a “meh” resume line.

I usually do a full ACCT analysis, but JP Giglio does a great one in this morning’s paper. I agree with him that I only see three realistic possible winners – Holes, Noles, and Canes (good matchups). But I would be shocked if anyone other than the Holes cut down the nets. They are paying attention and need to win out to keep their 1 seed. I only see two teams that can beat a focused Hole squad, and Syracuse and Kentucky are otherwise occupied this weekend.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

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41 Responses to Thursday Pre-Caffeinated Thoughts

  1. Prowling Woofie 03/08/2012 at 8:39 AM #

    I don’t see the Holes taking their usual “who cares?” attitude this weekend – the #1 seed is hanging in the balance. I think they are focused and lethal, unfortunately. Would LOVE to be wrong…

    Pluck the Eagles, PACK !!!!!

  2. 1.21 Jigawatts 03/08/2012 at 8:58 AM #

    Key games today (besides NC State & Miami)

    Washington vs Oregon State (3:00)
    Northwestern vs Minnesota (5:30)
    Arizona vs UCLA (5:30)
    Colorado State vs TCU (5:30)
    USF vs Notre Dame (9:00)
    Stanford vs California (9:00)
    Texas vs Iowa State (9:30)
    Miss State vs Georgia (10:00)
    Oregon vs Colorado (11:30)

  3. vtpackfan 03/08/2012 at 9:08 AM #

    I can dig UNC, FSU, UM being the likely victor as long as NCSU appears in one of their matchups πŸ˜‰

  4. vtpackfan 03/08/2012 at 9:14 AM #

    BTW, anyone else find it interesting that what we pay our entire coaching staff in salary is less than what two coaches whose teams are on this list turned us down for?

  5. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 9:16 AM #

    I suspect it would take 3 Pack victories to nose ahead of South Florida (unlike Seton Hall, I think they were a “just don’t fall flat on your face” team, not a “work left to do”). They beat Nova, so they’re likely in.

    The Pac-12 just confuses me. I don’t know who to pull for, and suspect they will end up with two bids no matter what (the champ and whichever of the non-champ bubbles does the best in LA).

  6. baxter 03/08/2012 at 9:17 AM #

    We don’t get in without beating BC and UVA, so personally I’d rather see Texas and Miami win 2 games. I’d rather say we have 4 wins against top 50 teams. If Texas, State and Miami win multiple games they are going to bounce out those weaker mid majors in front.

  7. baxter 03/08/2012 at 9:19 AM #

    BJD, you need to pull for Stanford, and only Stanford. If they could beat Cal and Oregon, that would help us in a lot of ways.

  8. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 9:21 AM #

    That’s a rational position, baxter. But Texas only has to win one to get in, because their first rounder is against Iowa State (solid NCAAT). Miami and State need two because their first round foe is miserable and will earn them zero credit. Padding overall win total means nothing. Only quality wins and bad losses count at this stage.

  9. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 9:22 AM #

    Go, Trees!!! πŸ™‚

    They already took out HWSNBN, so they already earned some love from SFN. Might as well keep the good karma flowing.

  10. 1.21 Jigawatts 03/08/2012 at 9:24 AM #

    Here’s one thing that I hope will burn into the current players on the team. You’re having to sweat it out on the wrong side of the bubble this entire time because you didn’t either close out games you had against solid OOC teams or you didn’t bring it against teams you should have beat. Maybe next year they’ll remember that ALL games are important, no matter what time of year it is. Then turn around and pass that knowledge on to the incoming class so they understand.

  11. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 9:27 AM #

    At the time, I felt that the win against the Bonnies would be the difference if we somehow got a bubble bid.

    Without that Top 100 road win…we would definitely need 3 wins instead of 2. Thanks again to MG for having the stones to schedule that one.

  12. TheAliasTroll 03/08/2012 at 9:33 AM #

    I still can’t wrap my head around how in the hell Arizona State beat Arizona this past weekend.

  13. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 9:49 AM #

    Nothing re the Pac 12 makes sense. It’s what the ACC would be if you dropped the blues and cloned BC and Wake.

  14. Prowling Woofie 03/08/2012 at 9:53 AM #

    Nova scored 17 points in the first half last night in a miserable game with South Florida, so I don’t see how that counts as a quality win. Both teams looked like crap.

    Speaking of crap, did anyone try to stomach the Montana-Weber State game last night ? Neither of those teams would win a single game in the ACC, based on what I saw last night. Not a single game…

  15. Wufpacker 03/08/2012 at 9:59 AM #

    “Northwestern (though I donÒ€ℒt have the heart for that one)”

    Screw that. If it’s them or us that goes down, then it needs to be them. They’re one of the few BCS conference programs on a bigger losing streak than us. They can wait another year.

  16. Texpack 03/08/2012 at 10:04 AM #

    Most of the brackets I see out there have Miami ahead of us. If they win two, they will definitely be ahead of us unless we win three. Miami wins and losses do nothing for our RPI. A Texas win helps our RPI and the perceived quality of our best win. I’d like to see both of them go 1-1.

    The Bonnies over St. Joe’s would be a double whammy in our favor. Seton Hall has to have a lot of in the bracket bubble teams lose to get back in. That was a helpful result for the Pack. Stanford to the Pac-12 Finals is the best possible result for us out there.

  17. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 10:05 AM #

    NW’s best players are seniors. Now or never for those poor bastards.

    USF didn’t need another quality win. They just needed to avoid the bad loss (which they did). UConn was in the same boat, though their ref assisted win over WVU eliminated all doubt.

    USF frequently plays games in the 40s and 50s. Absolutely brutal to watch.

  18. Trout 03/08/2012 at 11:07 AM #

    Comparing UVa and NC State:

    Record: 22-8, 20-11
    ACC: 9-7, 9-7
    RPI: 43, 52
    SOS: 88, 24

    UVA losses: ACC: 2 to FSU, 2 to UNC, 1 to Duke, 1 to VT, 1 to Clemson. OOC: TCU (currently 100 in the RPI)
    UVA Bad losses (100+): VT (119), Clemson (138)
    UVA quality wins (top 100): Michigan (13), Miami (49), NC State (52), Oregon (54), Drexel (68)

    NC State losses: ACC: 2 to UNC, 1 to Duke, 1 to FSU, 1 to GT, 1 to Clemson, 1 to UVA. OOC: Syracuse (1), Indiana (11), Vandy (27), Stanford (94)
    NC State bad losses (100+): Clemson (138), GT (183)
    NC State quality wins: Miami (49), Miami (49), Texas (58), Princeton (86), St Bonny (91),

    UVA has 2 50 top wins (Michigan and Miami), and 5 top 100 wins.

    NC State has 2 top 50 wins (both Miami) and 5 top 100 wins

    Biggest difference is that UVa beat Michigan while we lost to Indiana in the Challenge, and UVa didnt play high ranked teams like Syracuse and Vandy. They also dont have a really bad loss like we do to GT.

    They lost to TCU, we lost to Stanford. Comparable losses.

    They beat us head to head.

    If we play and beat UVa in the ACCT, then our resumes are somewhat equal, other than the Michigan win for UVa. We would have 3 Top 50 wins (assuming Miami remains top 50) and 6 top 100 wins. If UVa is considered a lock, why wouldnt we be in with a win over them?

  19. lawful 03/08/2012 at 11:21 AM #

    Thx Texpack. I was looking for some clear language of whom to root for/against (if you’re right)….at least we have something to talk about re: basketball tournaments. When was the last time that happened?

  20. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 11:40 AM #

    If we end up in the 40s in RPI, we will get in. But I’ve seen lots of variance in what our RPI actually is.

    The difference between us and UVA is just what Trout mentioned – UVA beat Michigan, we lost to Indiana. That’s it. Swap those results, and we would be a lock (unless maybe if we lost to BC) and UVA would need to beat us to have a shot.

  21. 1.21 Jigawatts 03/08/2012 at 11:40 AM #

    Trout, I’ve been going over and over that myself and the only thing is (1) they beat Michigan before Michigan got good and (2) they have been ranked in the top 25 in the polls most of the season. = “Eye Test”

  22. 1.21 Jigawatts 03/08/2012 at 11:50 AM #

    I’ve gone over and over the relevant stats charts (rpi, 1-50, 1-100, +100, Away/Neutral, SOS, OOC SOS) and there is only 1 thing that seperates State from everyone else who is picked over us. Top 50 wins. That 0-8 is glaring and we MUST have at least 3 top 50 wins to get in (to go along with beating UVA). I don’t think we can get in without it unless we beat UNX. Miami has to finish in the Top 50 and I don’t know if they go 1-1 in the ACCT will be enough.

  23. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 11:53 AM #

    UVA would be a Top 50 win, as would Miami if and only if they win twice. t

  24. BJD95 03/08/2012 at 11:56 AM #

    Totally agree that T50 wins is our worst resume line, by far. The ACC really screwed us over by being so damned top heavy.

  25. 1.21 Jigawatts 03/08/2012 at 11:58 AM #

    So many variables at play here. Going to be agonizing to watch it all unfold.

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