Cincinnati vs NC State Preview: First Big OOC Game

'11 Football ACC & Other NC State NCS Football67

I’m feeling much too cynical about things to really draw this out, so we’ll keep it short and let everyone comment on how they feel about the game.  First, a little housekeeping… Cincinnati is spelled with three I’s and three N’s.  If you can’t spell Cincinnati, just say ‘Cincy’ or ‘the Bearcats’ or ‘that other offense tearing up our secondary’.

Cincinnati’s Record

As you may recall, we did a pretty good job of ripping Cincy a new one last year (30-19), but as O’Brien said, this isn’t last year.  The one thing you can say about Cincy is that they are all about one thing: offense, offense, offense.  Defense is NOT their forte.  Almost sounds familiar.

This season, they’ve played two fluff games and one game @ Tennessee.  So, here is why their record is concerning (and remember I said Cincy is all about offense):

vs Austin-Peay: 72-10 (W)
@ Tenn: 45-23 (L)
vs Akron: 59-14 (W)

A lot of people say you have to take wins against Austin-Peay (‘tuuurible’) and Akron (bottom of their conference) with a grain of salt, but 72 points, regardless of how you cut it, is a s***load of offense to put up against anyone who isn’t a middle school aged rec team.  Even against Tennessee, Cinci still posted 23 points, including two touchdowns (both in the first quarter against Tenn’s starters) and 3 field goals.  What this shows is that Cincy can post points against QUALITY opponents, despite their AWFUL 4-win season in 2010.

The one major thing going for State is Cincy’s head coach, Butch Jones, who in his second year is only 3-9 against FBS programs.  He has a strong, quick team with a lot of options, but isn’t exactly the best coach in the world.  The thing to watch out for is that this is only Butch’s second season at Cincy, so you can’t assume that 3-9 is consistent performance for his team.  The performance thus far supports that.

Cincinnati’s Offense

They run.  Period.  Their quarterback is decent, and I suspect they will use that to spread the field when possible, but they win their games on the running game.  UC has 12 individuals that have posted rushing stats (compared to NC State’s three), 4 of which have posted over 10 carries each for a total of 443 yards.  Now, we have to bear in mind (no pun intended) that there was that Austin Peay game where UC posted 561 yards, but it’s still worth noting that UC has options which is something many have been complaining our team hasn’t taken advantage of on our roster.

I mentioned their quarterback is decent.  He’s averaging around 62.3% for the season averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.  Keep in mind that Glennon, who despite our results is actually doing pretty good, is 64% for 8 yards per attempt.  Even against Tennessee, he was able to complete 61.7% averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.  Not great, but against Tennessee it isn’t trivial either.  The spread of passing-to-rushing is 45% passing and 55% rushing, so expect Cincy to use their passing game only as much as they feel they need to set up the rush.

Cincinnati’s Defense

Remember that Tennessee game?  Yeah, the Vols had 531 total yards in that game.  Tenn was able to complete 83% of their passes, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.  That is far better than the Tenn QB’s (Bray) seasonal average of 68% averaging for 8.7 yards per attempt.  Don’t get me wrong, Bray was going to demolish UC’s defense anyway, but with inflated numbers like that, you have to look at UC’s inadequate pass defense and notice the problem.

Bottom line is that Cincy is not a defensive powerhouse by any means.  They have a weak pass defense which means they are going to attempt to keep Glennon off the field.  In the final 18 minutes of the Wake Forest game, recall that on a couple 1st and 2nd down passes, Glennon was able to strong-arm an offensive comeback.  Don’t assume Butch Jones hasn’t noticed that.

Bottom Line

Cincy is going to attempt to take advantage of their flexible run-game, keep the time of possession on UC’s side, and do what they can to get NC State off the field quickly.  Time is probably just as large (if not a larger) a factor as defensive efficiency in this game for Jones.  It’s a pretty simple equation that even ESPN is likely to get right: if the defensive line can overcome the personnel loses we’ve suffered and remain still against the run, we’ll do alright.  If we allow Cincy’s passing game to throw us off and become rendered ineffective against the run, we’ll get rolled.  Draw your own conclusions.

Just as O’Brien said, this isn’t last year and the same applies for Cincy.  They are by no means a “great” team, but they have an offense that can get it done.  If the defense isn’t fluid enough to read and adapt to Cincy’s running scheme, it might be a long night.

Thursday at 8:00PM on ESPN.

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

'11 Football ACC & Other NC State NCS Football

67 Responses to Cincinnati vs NC State Preview: First Big OOC Game

  1. MP 09/22/2011 at 12:59 PM #

    I was neutral til I read bTHEredterror’s rundown. Now, I may actually watch the opening kickoff instead of tuning in at halftime.

  2. wufpaxno1 09/22/2011 at 1:52 PM #

    This game should be our coming out party… as in coming out from under the clouds. But I am sure that many of the Eeyore’s posting here feel that “Oh no, it will probably rain!” Chin up, I know that you are all Pack supporters or you would not be posting here, but how the hell is this team supposed to get fired up if you don’t?

    From my humble prospective this team will be fine. The offense is beginning to come together nicely and when Mustafa Greene returns, in early October hopefully, the offense should be a force to be reckond with. Glennon is probably advancing ahead of schedule and despite all is playing at a level not far off from where Russell left off. To me, this is a sign that he is likely to exceed Russell’s numbers in our offense before season’s end.

    You cannot compare what Mike is doing at State to what Russell is doing at Wisconsin, they are two completely different systems. Russell has adapted well and Wisconsin’s run first philosophy opens up the passing game for Russell. I am glad to see him doing well, but thrilled to see Glennon’s progression.

    Offensively we will be fine, and please don’t be critical of a coaching staff that has, for the most part, been together and successful for almost 20 years. I am pretty sure that they know what they are doing and that the play calling is based upon what they are seeing and how the game develops. Second guessing them only makes you look foolish, unless of course any of you are a seasoned coach with many years of D1 coaching experience, then by all means, unload on them.

    Defensively this is, or should be, basically the same unit from last season that was near best in the ACC and among the best units nationally. You can correct mistakes but you can’t coach talent, and we do have talent. The difference has been the injuries. We have yet to field the unit that this defense was designed to be and have had to make adjustments and patch things up on a weekly basis until we can get healthy again. The only advantage in this is that once we get our starters all back we will have depth and experience behind them.

    The biggest problem that I have seen defensively has not been in talent or physical ability; it has been in mental mistakes. The problem here is that these kinds of mistakes wreck havoc on the overall psyche of a team beyond the damage of the mistakes themselves. This is multiplied when there is no continuity among the players which in itself is a byproduct of the injuries. Time heals all wounds and the confidence and swagger of this unit will return as this happens.

    Don’t give up hope or sell out and try to remain positive. It is contagious and the players do feel it, are aware of it, and feed off of your energy. I speak from experience having collected grass in my face mask from the swamp in Gainesville and gotten grass stains on my pants between the pines at Kennan. I know that you all support our beloved Pack. Just remember, none of these young men want to lose, they will always give their best, and they really want to make us all proud! Let’s do our best to return the favor and continue to make them proud of us as fans.

  3. Wolfacct 09/22/2011 at 1:58 PM #

    Well said wufpaxno1! Best post of the year. Go Pack!

  4. NCStatePride 09/22/2011 at 2:55 PM #

    wufpaxno1, good post, but I think you are mischaracterizing what many are saying here. No one is saying the kids aren’t trying or don’t want to win. No one is saying that the coaches don’t have experience. Maybe I missed it, but I also don’t see anyone trying to compare Glennon and Wilson right now. Hell, if anything, I think everyone let go of the “Wilson would have us winning right now” bull**** as of a couple of weeks ago. I feel like you are trying to preach on a bunch of fandom-sins that aren’t being committed.

    Giving-up on NC State is a bit strong, but the performance hasn’t left a lot to be hopeful for. That is what people are losing… hope (if you want to be warm and fuzzy about it). Our defense is allowing approximately 375 yards of opposing offense per game (400vs Liberty, +400vs Wake, +280vs South Alabama).

    You also have to look at the passing defense. Yeah, we held South Alabama to ‘only’ 280 yards, but 190 of that was in the air (Almost 70%). If a D-1AA can run up and down the field three times relying on our weak secondary, how would that make you feel going up against someone like Cincy?

    As far as your statement that we aren’t allowed to comment on play calling unless we are a D-1A coach, that’s just a flat-out ignorant thing to say. I bet you the CEOs at Enron had decades of combined experience, too. I bet that the officers on the Titanic had year and years of experience at sea. Just because you’ve been in the game for a long time doesn’t mean you don’t start to lose your edge or fall in a rut. Is this coaching staff a good staff? Yeah, they’re definitely not terrible, but are they working out for NC State? THAT is the real question.

  5. TruthBKnown Returns 09/22/2011 at 3:28 PM #

    State is certainly not where we want to be. But the offense is improving (imagine where we’ll be when George Bryan decides to join the party, and stop dropping passes!) Our best running back (arguably) is still not back yet. We’re missing some of our best D-linemen and/or linebackers. But we’re doing OK for now, all things considered. Yes, we’ve only played two FCS teams and lowly Wake Forest. But let’s look at that for a minute:

    1) Liberty has won their conference four years running, and competes for national championships in their division.

    2) Wake Forest only lost (at Syracuse) because they lost their QB to a knee injury. I know these are woulda-coulda things, but Wake was rolling all over Cuse on offense when he went out. It’s hard not to believe that is what stalled Wake’s offense that day. They’ve done well against us and the other lower-division team they played.

    3) USA had never lost a game.

    Say what you want, but we played two FCS teams that know how to win, even if they’re FCS teams. And Wake may well be a lot better than people thought.

    All I’m saying is, it’s not like we lost to Lees-McCreigh or something. We’re not where we want to be. The defense has given up a lot of yards to opposing offenses. But we do have reason to think we’ll get better with the return of our injured players.

    We may or may not win tonight. I figure we won’t. But I’m not convinced it’s all doom and gloom as people think.

  6. NCStatePride 09/22/2011 at 3:39 PM #

    I was just going to say, “Yeah, good points… agree to disagree… we’ll see what happens”, but I keep seeing a couple things mentioned over and over again with regards to the teams we played. I said it before and I’ll say it again: I’ve always thought that playing poorly against a team then turning around and trying to talk them up is about the crappiest thing someone can do. It’s like giving back-handed compliments to others because you feel bad about your team. Anyway, let me give you some counter-facts:

    1) App St had won their National Championship and opened with NC State in 2006. They would go on that year to win another National Championship. NC State would go on that year to win 3 games, one of which was a solid win over App St. I bring this up because I keep hearing people say “But, Liberty was really, really good! They compete for their division title!” What you aren’t seeing is that a division title in D1AA ball is just in a completely different ballpark than D1A. I HIGHLY encourage you to speak to some people who have been through the college recruiting process (especially those that didn’t make D1A) and just ask them about the talent gaps between divisions. It’s not just some on-paper/trivial thing.

    Talk them up all you want, but they are still D1AA.

    2) You can say Wake Forest only lost in Syracuse because they lost their QB, but you are COMPLETELY missing that the ‘Cuse comeback was an offensive surge, not a defensive one. You can argue “yes, but Price would have kept Wake’s offense going.” Maybe. Maybe not. The point is that Syracuse’s OFFENSE stepped up and was able to overcome Wake Forest’s DEFENSE. Saying that Wake only lost to ‘Cuse because their QB got injured is like watching the Wake game and saying “we would have won if we has Russell”. You’re looking at the complete wrong side of the field.

    That’s all I got as far as those two things go. I’m not even trying to state anything definitively other than you can’t play the ‘our opposition was better than it looked!’ That is such a loser’s way of thinking. If NC State had their ducks in a row (injuries included), we wouldn’t be having those problems. We still lost to Wake… I’d bet you my paycheck they don’t turn out to be a division contender. We struggled against two D1AA teams (and no, South Alabama is not a “good” one… they were undefeated because they didn’t play any hard D1AA teams). It is what it is. By all means, root for NC State and “know” that they are going to win tonight, get their 8-9 win season, and that TOB is the best coach since Lou…. I don’t really care. But stop making excuses for our ****ty performance the past few weeks. It’s OK to admit that we simply didn’t play well without saying, “but, but, but….!”

  7. pack44fan 09/22/2011 at 4:47 PM #

    In year 5 of a “rebuild”, it is time to quit making excuses. In football, you are going to have injuries, it is part of the game. EVERY team has them and must deal with them. Sometimes it seems that our own coaches, players, and radio personnel are making excuses for poor performance before we even take the field. Reminds me of back when Dean was coaching at Carolina and they always had an injury to a key player before they played us just to have an excuse just in case they lost.

  8. wufpaxno1 09/22/2011 at 4:57 PM #

    Pride, I understand exactly where you are coming from and maybe I left some statements up to mischaracterization. I am not pointing fingers at anyone here but the opinion of the Packs chances both in posts to this blog and in the media has leaned negative, though the criticism has been a little more pointed from some here. I do understand the frustration; the whole “Hope” thing has not gone well for NC State athletics or economically in this country as a whole.

    When Jimmie Johnson has a flat that causes him to lose a race you don’t usually see his fans start questioning his pit crew. Not everyone here is, but the players do read this stuff and it can go to their heads. Not that I am a big Ryan Harrow fan, but he posted about this while he was still at State last season so you know that the players read stuff online and it has an effect. Social media is a very powerful sword and it cuts both ways and since we are all State Fans here, as the name would imply, I would just rather try to remain upbeat. Having said that, I am probably just as guilty as anyone of expressing frustration over past coaching, and I am not trying to bury my head in the sand.

    Our defense is allowing too many yards, this defense is built around a bend but don’t break philosophy, and unfortunately this season to date it has broken more than any of us would like. But I believe that as the replacements gain more experience, those injured begin returning, and we develop more confidence and cohesion, that this unit will return to last year’s form. And when this happens will we then point fingers at the coaching staff or will we recognize that misfortune had as much a role to play in what we are going through as coaching.

    I was not happy with the way that Amato ran the program, and I am still not sold on Archer, but I don’t have the benefit of years of experience coaching on the sidelines and hours a week of evaluating game film either. I did have the opportunity to spend 2 years under the tutelage of Dick Sheridan and his staff at Furman and know that to be successful you have to buy into the system, all of it, and completely and it does take time. Having to change multiple parts, unplanned, can be very detrimental to the overall goal.

    I believe that this staff is reacting to misfortune the best that they can within the framework of what they are trying to build and with the parts that they have to work with. You cannot scrap the scheme, you just have to stick with the plan and work with what you have to work with at the time, which sometimes means unintetionally sacrificing some of the desired results in the short term.

    It is OK to question results, but until you have been in a profession you are not truly qualified to question the strategy. I finished my schooling at State, but not in engineering, I often see things engineered that I don’t agree with, but with little knowledge of the why and how I simply am not qualified to pass judgment on the what, and I don’t think that that is a ignorant thing to say.

    My points about the Glennon / Wilson comparisons are pointed largely at the national media and not at anyone here. I have seen here, and agree with, the opinion that this topic will likely be brought up during the airing of tonight’s game on ESPN and it will not be the first time that it has played out over the national media. Their comparisons will be largely unfair, because you cannot compare the two quarterbacks directly based upon where they each are today. You can somewhat compare Glennon this year to Wilson last year, but the receiving core is almost completely different and this is Glennon’s first year as a starter while last year was Wilson’s third. Having said that, to date I think the Glennon compares more than favorably to Wilson.

    As I said we are all State Fans here, and in my opinion we are the best fans of any school in America. Hell, we sold out a game with South Alabama; UNC could not even pack the house for Virginia. I am not trying to step on anyone’s toes, and respect everyone’s right to have and express an opinion. We all bleed red and you are all my brothers in that regard. I am just trying to put some polish on the tarnish and make it go away so that we can shine once again. I was in Carter Finley often in 1979, and was at State in 1983 (Reynolds) and look forward to that kind of success again.

    Incidentally, I believe we lost to Wake Forest in ’79 as well, and I know that we suffered greatly from injuries in ’83, but in both cases we recovered and achieved greatness in the end. It can happen again!

  9. NCStatePride 09/22/2011 at 5:07 PM #

    That, my friend, was an oustanding post. I don’t agree with some of your views on things, but there’s obviously nothing wrong with that (I have been wrong once or twice in my life, though my plan is to only be wrong three times by the time I die). Thanks for your insite and contribution to the conversation… it has been a real pleasure reading through your past two posts.

  10. TruthBKnown Returns 09/22/2011 at 5:13 PM #

    I wasn’t using our opponents in an effort to make State look better than they are. All I was saying is that we DID play some decent teams so far. Duke has lost to one of those D-1AA teams three years running. And they just beat BC on the road. Those D-1AA teams are stronger than they used to be. These are not “our daddy’s D-1AA teams” any more. The talent drop-off is there, but it’s not like high school. Depth isn’t there, either. But they can come in fired up and play inspired ball. App State won that game at Michigan, and Michigan went on to win about eight games that season.

    And last I checked, we did beat both of those D-1AA teams by 22 points each, and in games where we didn’t even play all that well.

    If we had lost to one or both, Pride, your point would be valid. It would be shallow to lose to a team like that, and then try to say we’re alright because we just lost to a “good team”. That’s not what happened here. We beat them both by 22 points apiece. Maybe it didn’t come as easily as we’d like, but that’s where my theory come into play, that they aren’t exactly chopped liver that we played. Sometimes these teams show up to play and you actually have to work up a sweat to beat them. Which we did.

    What I’m suggesting is that JUST because we gave up some yardage to teams we beat fairly soundly, and JUST because we lost at Wake Forest, is not reason to play the DOOM & GLOOM card. Pride, you go ahead and do that if you must. I say the jury is still out.

    After tonight, we’ll know a lot more than we do now. If it’s a good game, maybe we’ll be OK. If we lose by four touchdowns, it’s time to put those season tickets on eBay! But we don’t know that we’re necessarily bad yet. Or that we can’t improve very quickly, because:

    1) TOB’s teams always seem to get off to a slow start, but improve as the season goes along (and also as we get our best players back from injury), and

    2) We have some of our best D-linemen and linebackers out due to injury, as well as our top running back, and

    3) We’ll be getting a lot of them back in the next 3-4 weeks, and’

    4) The offense has improved over the last six quarters, compared to the first six. Analyzing that further, we have a quarterback playing in his first ever start, compared to one that is in his third start and beginning to look more comfortable out there.

    There’s reason for hope for the rest of the season. There’s also a chance it could never materialize. We could get our best players back and still stink. But nothing is over yet.

    I say we let them lose games before we write games off as lost. And that’s what it seems like some of us are doing.

  11. MISTA WOLF 09/22/2011 at 5:20 PM #

    I didn’t mean to ruffle anyone’s feathers with my Bryan comment. You see it all the time in professional ball where a player and another player don’t see eye to eye and their performance suffers by it. I was just stating a FACT of how Bryan was Wilson’s go to man last year and it happened to cross my mind that maybe Glennon wanted to throw in another’s direction to create his own identity and relationship with a reciever. I love the Wolfpack just as much as all you guys do and no one EVER has to question my love for N.C. State. Just sharing my thinking on the message board to see what you guys think…..

  12. NCStatePride 09/22/2011 at 6:49 PM #

    I still feel like you’re taking the stance of “if you aren’t happy with the pittance of positive that we have seen, you’re being doom or gloom.” You even took a swipe by saying you don’t see a reason to be doom and gloom, then told me to go ahead and do that. I don’t see anywhere where I have said anything close to “the whole season is lost” or “I give up on these guys” or “we won’t win another game all season”.

    TBK, take it from someone who was in Lowe’s corner for a long time… by labeling everyone who thinks you are being too rosey as “doom and gloom” (which is pretty much what you just did to me), that is why people give you a hard time about your optimism. Truth be told, there are some people who are doom and gloom, but most of them aren’t here on this blog. Most of the people you see here are doing nothing more than looking at the product they OBSERVE and setting their expectations appropriately. Obviously those expectations will adjust as the product improves. If you think it’s equally as accurate to put more weight on caveats that you feel weigh greatly on our importance, that is completely your own decision… but don’t set back and call us doom and gloom and use these facts as reasons why you know we’re better than the record implies.

    You even admit it yourself… all of your facts only amount up to “hope” at whats going to happen. Some of us chose to be more realistic. That’s your call.

  13. NCStatePride 09/22/2011 at 6:53 PM #

    MISTA WOLF,

    Great point. I don’t think its invalid to ask how the chemistry is. It has nothing to do with people attitudes or performance… some players just have better synergy than others. It’s the job of the coaching staff to support and foster growth of synergies that exist and to form new synergies that may not exist yet. If Bryan and Glennon just aren’t “clicking”, that actually is something I feel confident O’Brien will get right.

    …now the rest of the problems, on the other hand…. we’ll see.

  14. TruthBKnown Returns 09/22/2011 at 7:02 PM #

    I don’t have optimism. I think we’ll probably lose tonight. I just get tired of premature negativity. It’s like you (or some of you) want to be the first to proudly proclaim that we are horrible. Then when it happens you can be proud of yourself.

    I’m saying wait for more data. That’s all.

  15. NCStatePride 09/22/2011 at 7:06 PM #

    You say you don’t have optimism. I think trying to make a case that we “played tough opponents” because you played a decent D1AA team and a Wake team that played one other competitive game is being optimistic. You say wait for more data. Again, I don’t see anyone cashing in the whole season saying “I give up! We’ll suck all year!!!!” That tells me people ARE waiting for more data. What you see as negativity, we see as realistically saying “Hey, we obviously have problems and realistically things don’t look good. If the trend starts changing and we win a few games, we’ll adjust our attitudes.”

    Again…. that doesn’t sound negative to me, it just sounds like rational thought. I think you’d be hard pressed to convince people that you aren’t “on the optimistic side”.

  16. TruthBKnown Returns 09/22/2011 at 7:47 PM #

    I’m being realistic in pointing out the possibility that we haven’t exactly played creampuffs and struggled with them. People are just assuming that D-1AA teams are nothing, and that Wake is nothing. All I’m doing is putting the brakes on that.

    Maybe they’re right, and since we struggled with them, we’re bad.

    But maybe they’re wrong, and we’re not so bad after all.

    So maybe I am optimistic/realistic when I say we just don’t know yet. I am holding out hope that we have a chance. And it irritates me when people write us off this early.

    But don’t act like I’m some kind of wild-eyed optimist here. If we had lost to one or both of those FCS teams and I was saying these things, that would be wild-eyed. You probably think you’re keeping my feet on the ground. I say you need to pull your feet out of the ground.

    Tonight, we’ll know if there is much of any room for optimism. But based on who we’ve played, we really don’t know yet. No matter how “realistic” you might want to think you are. You’re assuming the worst when you don’t know enough to think that way, and that makes you pessimistic about us.

  17. NCStatePride 09/23/2011 at 8:53 AM #

    “Maybe they’re right, and since we struggled with them, we’re bad.

    But maybe they’re wrong, and we’re not so bad after all.”

    TBK, here is your problem. You keep saying “maybe they’re right” and “maybe they’re wrong” as if both are equally as valid. Their not. “They”, us saying NCSU isn’t doing well, are basing our views on what actually has occurred. We are looking at the facts of whats on the field and making a judgement.

    You, on the other hand, are saying “maybe they’re wrong” based on off-the-field ‘facts’, a ton of assumptions, and explanations as to why we might be doing bad. Thats all well and good, but it’s not realistic. I could say that “you know, the economy isn’t as bad as it looks because we have a lot of things working against us right now.” Is that going to make my investments any better by year’s end? Should I go ahead and throw all my money in? Of course not, that would be dumb. Likewise, it’s silly to actually engage in a debate about the status of our football team based on “what if” statements and assumption, especially when the people you’re arguing against are stating pure observed fact.

    If you really want to argue this, we can talk about that 44-14 loss last night to Cincy, then maybe you can tell me how both Wake and Cincy are BCS schools and it doesn’t mean anything negative for our team. See, you kept saying “based on tonight’s game we’ll know”, but what I’m telling you is that going into this game, I predicted in the forums that we would get rolled. I based that on the facts of how we have played. Guess what… I was right.

1 2 3

Leave a Reply