Mid-Season ACC Review

09-10 Basketball ACC Teams College Basketball Editor's Picks General Stat of the Day70

As we reach the mid-point of the regular season and move into conference play, I thought it would be interesting to take a little time and look at what has been accomplished thus far in the season. So here is a summary of State’s season to date:

RPI Rank – 96
OOC SOS Rank – 247
Overall SOS Rank – 202 (Includes WF game)

Results:

Jan6 States Results

Note: This breakdown comes from CBS Sports. Go here if you want to follow this type of information as the season unfolds.

A few random thoughts:

– To date, State has only played one game against a team that is on track to receive an at-large bid to the NCAAT.

– With only two-Top 100s win at the half-way point of the season, anyone talking about improvement, NCAAT, or NIT needs to be taken with a rather large grain of salt. (Note that Marquette had a big win last night against #14 Georgetown to move into the Top 100.)

– For all of the heat generated by the Florida game, the actual impact on the season is nearly imperceptible. Florida is neither a good team, nor a bad one. Thus the loss isn’t embarrassing (except for the way it was lost), nor would have a win have constituted anything significant.

– In past seasons, we’ve compiled and discussed the OOC SOS for the ACC. Sidney is continuing Herb’s tactic of playing one of the weakest OOC schedules in the conference. Anyone that attributes that trend to “bad luck” simply hasn’t been paying attention. BTW, look for the already bad OOC SOS to take a big drop once State plays NCCU….currently 0-13 vs Div 1 opponents.

For a little broader perspective, let’s summarize the season for all of the ACC teams with each team’s games broken down into categories:

Jan6 ACC Summary

Thoughts:

– I highlighted a few items of general interest
– OOC SOS ranked 200+ with special emphasis on UM’s 300+ ranking
– Top 25 and Top 50 wins (required to get at-large NCAAT bid)

– I generally hate the NCAAT brackets done early in the year. Very few teams are actually “In” during Jan (though a good number are definitely “Out”). So think of my NCAAT projections more of a judgment of the season to date, rather than a prediction. The teams that are “In” have done well and just need to continue. The “Bubble” teams need to step up and improve their resume to insure that they fall on the right side of the bubble.

– The ACC is currently ranked third by RPI (behind the Big East and Big 12). Interestingly enough, the Atlantic 10 is ranked 5th pushing the Big Televen and Pac-10 into 6th and 7th.

– Many people around here have commented that the ACC is weaker this year. I think that this table supports that conclusion because there only two teams currently on track to the make the NCAAT and five teams pretty much out of contention (barring a dramatic turnaround).

– It’s shouldn’t be hard to see that there is a very real possibility of having a 9-7 conference record and still needing multiple wins in the ACCT to get an at-large bid. (This happened to VT just two years ago when the ACC was the #1 ranked conference.)

Just for kicks and giggles, let’s look at wins against Top 25 and Top 50 competition that ACC teams have accumulated so far:

Jan6 Top 50 Wins

There is a distinct shortage of big-name opponents on this list. You have to wonder how many of the mid-majors (other than Gonzaga) will still be in the Top 50 on Selection Sunday.

Let’s wrap up the mid-season review with a little preview of State’s ACC season:

2010 ACC Schedule

– If I could rearrange the schedule, I would swap the home games against Duke & Clemson for home games against FSU & GT. I figure that location won’t improve State’s chance for a win against either Duke or Clemson…but historically, FSU and GT are much tougher at home than they are on the road.

– Based on what little we know now, State’s schedule looks pretty balanced and would probably place State somewhere in the middle with respect to toughest conference schedules. If all goes reasonably well at home/work, we’ll take another look at conference SOS during the week leading up to the ACCT.

Closing Thoughts

I’m a results-orientated type of guy so State hasn’t accomplished anything to date that leads me to believe that this season is going to be substantially better than the last three. Those that are claiming “improvement” are apparently seeing things that somehow haven’t translated into wins. I hope that the claims of improvement are correct…but for now, I’m extremely skeptical.

Note that this entry is not a discussion about coaching, but about the results to date, the other ACC teams, and prospects for the season. Post any coaching comments on the forum thread created just for that purpose.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

09-10 Basketball ACC Teams College Basketball Editor's Picks General Stat of the Day

70 Responses to Mid-Season ACC Review

  1. Rick 01/07/2010 at 3:26 PM #

    “I’d have to confirm this with the stats, but my gut says our eFG% is down due to some horrendous 3-pt shooting games.

    Our free throw shooting is the worst it has been in 10 years (once again I’d have to confirm with stats).”

    I happen to be pulling this data.
    Here are the three point shooting for the last 5 years
    2009-2010 2008-2009 2007-2008 2006-2007 2005-2006
    3 point % .363  0.375 0.349 0.357 0.371
    ft % .651  0.717 0.719 0.728 0.751

  2. newt 01/07/2010 at 3:33 PM #

    You are what your record says you are. Mark Thomas – The Fan.

  3. BSIE80 01/07/2010 at 3:41 PM #

    Although I tend to like stats, etc. and can appreciate the time you spent on this, I don’t really care about the details at this point. All of the analysis is for what? To determine if the team is slightly better this year than last year or they are the same, worse? What is the point… Sid can’t coach? We suck again?

    The 11-4 record, the way the guys are playing, the way Sid is coaching are good enough for me. Heck, even the losses have been close.

    The way I see it is we still have marginal talent and lack experience to compete with the best in the ACC or good national programs.

    Just making the NCAAT or NIT is not a big deal. If we make either one, we are lucky to win a game or 2. So until we have the talent to make the elite eight, it doesn’t much matter does it.
    You have to have the best players to compete for championships.

    So until we can get the best players, mix in some experienced players, etc. I don’t have great expectations and just try to enjoy the game and kids we have. I think some of you should do the same.

  4. sautz 01/07/2010 at 3:42 PM #

    I’m sorry but I don’t see how these numbers show we are “clearly better” than the last couple of teams.
    Last year with one ACC game under our belts we were 9-4 with losses only to #24 Davidson, a 3 pt loss to #25 Marquette, a 2 pt loss Florida, plus an ACC loss to Clemson. The Marquette win is the only difference I see this year.
    We’ll be able to see much better if we have made improvements that result in actual results once the ACC season starts for us.

  5. VaWolf82 01/07/2010 at 4:04 PM #

    If you play in the ACC and you get 20 wins (and 8-8 in the conference) you can pretty much rest assured that your getting a bid regardless of how many ‘quality’ wins.

    Maybe. But the big wins are what separates someone from the middle of the ACC from a mid-major like St Mary’s last year with a 24-6 record. I also don’t think it matters about which conferences are “down” because someone is always down.

    The stats professors from the Dance Card make their predictions from these six factors:

    – RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) Rank
    – Conference RPI Rank
    – Number of wins against teams ranked from 1-25 in RPI
    – Difference in number of wins and losses in the conference
    – Difference in number of wins and losses against teams ranked 26-50 in RPI
    – Difference in number of wins and losses against teams ranked 51-100 in RPI

    Since I don’t have free access to SAS (not that access would do me any good), I usually just look at conference wins, RPI, and Top 50 wins. I added the Top 50 wins to my manual evaluations after VT got left out two years ago with 19 wins, a 9-7 conference record, and only one Top-50 win (vs #34).

    In 2002, State had one win against a NCAAT team….#3 UMD in the ACCT. They also had three top-50 wins (all against UVA). 2003 was very similar, where State had two top-25 wins (#12 Duke and #7 WF in the ACCT.) The ’02, ’03, and ’05 State teams also generated my conclusion that big wins in conference tournaments are very important. (Note that the ’03 and ’05 teams were not predicted to make the NCAAT by the Dance Card).

  6. VaWolf82 01/07/2010 at 4:10 PM #

    You mean like adding games against Holy Cross and Winthrop, two programs who have made the NCAAT multiple times in the past 10 years?

    Obviously not. Here is the last time that I compiled OOC SOS’s:

    http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2007/04/01/ooc-strength-of-schedule-2/

    Some teams always manage to schedule tough OOC schedules and some teams never do. Like I said in the entry…if you think that consistently weak OOC schedules are just a matter of bad luck, then you just haven’t been paying attention.

  7. VaWolf82 01/07/2010 at 4:15 PM #

    What is the point?

    -What kind of OOC schedule has State played?
    -How are State’s opponents doing since we played them?
    -How does State stand versus a potential NIT/NCAAT bid?
    -How have other ACC teams done?

    In other words….at the half-way point of the season, what has happened?

    Just yesterday, someone posted a comment in the forum talking about State playing a tough schedule. This person was obviously focusing on a few name teams and ignoring how those opponents were doing this year. If you want to know how State is doing in the context of the ACC, you have to actually look before you can draw meaningful conclusions.

    The way I see it is we still have marginal talent and lack experience to compete with the best in the ACC or good national programs.

    We agree on this. However, there are plenty of people posting here talking about making the NCAAT THIS year. Hopefully, those people will now realize how far State is from making the NCAAT.

  8. fullmoon1 01/07/2010 at 4:16 PM #

    Wow way to shoot down anyone who was foolish enough to have claimed improvement with out first calculating the season based on rpi. Those of us citing improvement are basing it on observations made in comparison to years past. Effort doesn’t really show on the stat sheets but if you have more w’s than l’s then its a good year so far. Discussing rpi is like discussing bcs, it’s greek to me.I suppose I am a pretty primitive fan and a “w “is a “w”. I don’t go back, check the rpi of said team that lost and say, wait a minute, that win sucked, we would be better off to have lost to a team with a higher rpi. I will reserve my grains of salt for rpi talk. It’s hard for me to enjoy basketball when it is turned into a giant word problem.

  9. Pack Mentality 01/07/2010 at 4:29 PM #

    This was a very interesting read. However, in my opinion the ONLY way to say if we are better than past years is to compare the ACC record. OOC is almost impossible to compare.

    Right now we’re 0-1.

  10. wolfpackattack89 01/07/2010 at 4:29 PM #

    I’m going to go ahead and predict that we won’t make the NIT. WE’re too young.

  11. fullmoon1 01/07/2010 at 4:35 PM #

    “I’m sorry but I don’t see how these numbers show we are “clearly better” than the last couple of teams”

    The numbers don’t refelct it necessarily but if you watch you will notice the following:

    1.Players are running …..up and down the floor
    2.We have point guard play and break presses even traps in some games
    3. Player body language indicates that they are actually trying to win the game, even at the end even when the odds are against it
    4.We have had different guys stepping up and contributing when needed.

    Now some of these may seem silly but these were things that were lacking. These are attributes that get taken for granted but thses things are necessary for any kind of respectability in the acc,so that puts us in better position to win. Last year with the effort there were games we litterly had no chance of winning becasue of the attitudes. I’ve seen enough improvement to feel much beetter about our post season prospects when compared to seasons past.

  12. packfan03 01/07/2010 at 4:51 PM #

    “Those that are claiming “improvement” are apparently seeing things that somehow haven’t translated into wins. I hope that the claims of improvement are correct…but for now, I’m extremely skeptical.”

    I’m not sure how many people thought there was going to be significant improvement this year, seeing how we were projected to finish last in the conference.

    It seems that our fans NEARLY unanimously think this team plays harder and smarter than last years bunch, and is performing at a similar level as last year’s bunch, but with less talent (albeit less enigmatic talent). Even those who don’t accept the concept of a “moral victory” (FLORIDA) do not argue against the opinion that our team seems to display the intangibles that good teams always seem to have – fighting every night, wanting the win, and putting the team first.

    This year in the close losses I have been disappointed FOR our guys. Last year, I was disappointed IN our guys. Perhaps some of you feel the same way.

  13. hball57 01/07/2010 at 5:01 PM #

    Interesting post, but I think it is too early to look at teams RPI. Until our opponents get into their conference schedule, I think the RPI is skewed. If they move to the top of their league, their RPI will increase, as they are playing teams on their level. I would love you to revisit these numbers at the end of January and see how it looks.

  14. nope 01/07/2010 at 5:03 PM #

    Some teams always manage to schedule tough OOC schedules and some teams never do. Like I said in the entry…if you think that consistently weak OOC schedules are just a matter of bad luck, then you just haven’t been paying attention.

    Strawman? I don’t see where anyone is arguing that. Personally, I believe that this year’s OOC schedule was a step in the right direction of improving what had been an unacceptable format over the last decade. As it has turned out, the schedule itself has been underwhelming but I believe the intent was better than the past. If it doesn’t improve again next year (despite the poor performance of UF, Zona, HC and Winthrop the OOC SOS is still on track to finish higher than 10th in the ACC – the avg of the last 10 yrs thanks to that info you compiled), then I will join you on your crusade (a cause I was for last year – Lipscomb, Towson, WSSU, HPU, ECU, NCCU, etc was just too much on the low end).

    edit: On the subject of the team’s actual performance, I am in agreement with everyone who believes the team is playing with more effort and slightly more intelligence, but that the overall result will be similar to the last few seasons due to a lack of talent. While this is still unacceptable in the long run, I am not sure who entered this season expecting otherwise.

  15. StateFans 01/07/2010 at 5:04 PM #

    I don’t think that you need the numbers to tell you the obvious that this team is clearly better.

  16. sautz 01/07/2010 at 5:08 PM #

    You can look really good against the Elons of the world (oh wait) but I am holding out stating that this team is obviously better until I see them against some real ACC competition.

  17. VaWolf82 01/07/2010 at 5:29 PM #

    I think it is too early to look at teams RPI. Until our opponents get into their conference schedule, I think the RPI is skewed.

    Sometimes, but you don’t know which direction they’re skewed. The rankings will go up or go down based on how teams perform in their conference schedule.

  18. howlie 01/07/2010 at 5:50 PM #

    Nice article and breakdown Va…

    Count me among those who see “improvement” in this year’s team [to date]; but I’ve never thought said “improvement” would translate into MORE wins. Rather, the “improvement” that I see is “improvement POTENTIAL,” with young players who are:
    1) accepting roles
    2) not concerned with stats, highlight reels, etc., & are
    3) tremendously ‘team’ oriented.

    Those are PRECONDITIONS to beginning to [re]build a program, and anyone could see horrifically TOXIC relations among the team the last few years.

    That’s clearly gone.
    That’s very good.
    That’s “improvement.”
    And that probably won’t translate into wins until NEXT year.

    We ARE NC State, after all.

  19. 61Packer 01/07/2010 at 5:54 PM #

    This season’s OOC schedule might be better than last season’s, but why does the largest public university in North Carolina, with a 21,000-seat arena in the heart of the nation’s premiere basketball conference, continue to schedule home games with the likes of Elon, Winthrop, Holy Cross, New Orleans, Georgia State and NC Central? The LTR ticketholders don’t like this annual influx of cupcake teams from small schools, and many times I haven’t even been able to give these tickets away when I’m unable to attend. And many times I don’t even care to go see these teams play here. That’s not perception, it’s a fact.

    We should give maybe two home games a season to UNC system teams, and maybe another to a small school somewhere else, but we need to quit bringing in this endless parade of small schools each season. We ought to be playing teams from BCS-level conferences, and I’d rather play those teams on the road than endure the endless OOC opponents we keep bringing here. Those teams have not and will not EVER prepare us for league play or make our program any better, and it sure as hell isn’t getting us any tv money, let alone national exposure.

    Yeah, we usually win 10 or 11 games each season before ACC play, which always excites part of our fan base into believing we’re really going to do something, and then the ACC games slam home reality.

    To me, this scheduling mess is on the NCSU administration. If we aspire to ever be good again, it needs to start with the OOC schedule. Give us fans who financially support the Wolfpack some decent home games for a change, and that includes putting Duke back on the home schedule every season!

  20. Ed89 01/07/2010 at 6:04 PM #

    ^^^”This year in the close losses I have been disappointed FOR our guys. Last year, I was disappointed IN our guys.”

    Well said. Good stats. Yes, I think we are a year away from being in the top half of the ACC, but I do think this team will surprise some folks.

  21. WV Wolf 01/07/2010 at 9:22 PM #

    Thanks for sharing these stats VaWolf.

    Honest question about the out of conference schedule. How many of these games were scheduled years in advance under Herb and how many were done under the current coaching staff? I know football games are scheduled years out but I don’t know about the timeframe for basketball.

  22. BSIE80 01/07/2010 at 9:31 PM #

    61packer,
    I agree with your take on the OOC schedule. It sucks to go to the game with about 10k people watching. No one knows if we really are gaining much from these games.

    How did we get into this mess?
    I think we need to bring back the big four tournament,
    schedule a big east, BIG 12 and SEC challenge.

  23. VaWolf82 01/07/2010 at 10:07 PM #

    I don’t know exactly how far ahead the BB schedule is set. I’ve always been under the impression that the cupcake schedule is done each year…and the home/home series against bigger schools would probably be a little further out. But I’ve never seen any kind of advanced schedule for BB like the ones you see for FB.

  24. dwm77 01/07/2010 at 11:26 PM #

    As per usual, beat a Duke and/or Unc and we will be in the NCAAT with a 8-8 or 9-7 record. Go 8-8 beating up on VT, BC, Miami with no marquee wins will get us nowhere. Could have helped our cause against Zona and Fla., but we didn’t.

    Whether or not we are a tourney team will pan out in ACC play. Our record is decent enough that we can elevate ourselves, just a matter of if we can do it.

    I see us having an NIT type season. NCAA’s at this point would be an unexpected surprise.

  25. JeremyH 01/08/2010 at 2:06 AM #

    So there are a lot of people who think that we have improved from last year. Has anyone yet said: so what? Tell me we are better than the year where we beat Duke in the ACC tournament and Marist at Reynolds in the NIT tournament (I still have the stub), and I will nod with approval. If you told me then that we would not have a team for the next 3 years in the conversation of getting into the NCAA tournment, I would have told you to f*** off. Now it seems we shouldn’t finish last in the ACC, but I would need to see them *finish* around 8th before I am willing to throw up my handful of confetti. Note I said finish, 1 game into the conference schedule is barely a start.

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