The Post NBA Exodus ACC Landscape [Updated 6/18 + Poll]

09-10 Basketball71

Original June 15th, 2009 entry:
The deadline for withdrawal is 5:00 p.m. today, and ESPN’s Chad Ford is tracking the late deciders’ status. So far today, the ACC is 50/50 – Gani Lawal will return to a loaded Yellow Jacket frontcourt, and Jeff Teague likely knocked the Deacs out of every pre-season Top 25 list. Greivis Vasquez is still on the fence, but Ford expects him to return to Maryland.

UPDATE: Greivis will indeed return to Maryland for his senior season.

UPDATE: Teague not returning to the Weak Florists, joining teammate James Johnson in the draft.

ACCNow has a list and some analysis that calls Wake Forest the biggest loser.

Wake Forest stands as the biggest loser, with forward James Johnson and guard Jeff Teague exiting, although the Deacs kept forward Al-Farouq Aminu. After returning to the NCAA Tournament in 2009, the Deacs are tracking back towards the bottom third of the ACC in ’10.

In the draft
G Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
F James Johnson, Wake Forest
G Gerald Henderson, Duke
G Wayne Ellington, UNC
G Ty Lawson, UNC
F Brandon Costner, N.C. State

Out
G Greivis Vasquez, Maryland
F Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech
F Dwayne Collins, Miami
F Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest

June 18th, 2009 UPDATE:
First, you need to go back two months and read a very good entry that is married to what we are getting ready to share here.

With ^that work in mind, Joe Giglio re-vamps his look at next year’s Atlantic Coast Conference landscape after the winners and losers of the NBA draft exodus have been declared (in this good piece at ACC Area Sports)

1. Duke
2. UNC
3. Boston College
4. Georgia Tech
5. Florida State
6. Maryland
7. Clemson
8. Virginia Tech
9. Virginia:

10. N.C. State: The Sidney Lowe Era hits Phase 2 with his own players. (9)

11. Wake Forest
12. Miami

POLL:

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

09-10 Basketball

71 Responses to The Post NBA Exodus ACC Landscape [Updated 6/18 + Poll]

  1. Alpha Wolf 06/15/2009 at 3:14 PM #

    Vasquez returning to Maryland has to move them up the prognostication ladder a bit.

    And I hope that Javi G is rubbing his hands together in anticipation.

  2. howlie 06/15/2009 at 3:41 PM #

    I would have thought Teague returning, and Vasquez going pro. It will be interesting…

  3. RickJ 06/15/2009 at 4:13 PM #

    Every mock draft I’ve seen has Teague going ahead of Ty Lawson – I would never make it as an NBA GM.

  4. Thinkpack17 06/15/2009 at 4:55 PM #

    “And I hope that Javi G is rubbing his hands together in anticipation.”

    If I remember correctly Javi did much better guarding Greivis than Fells or CJ. I think I would take Javi in a street fight even though he gives up about 7 inches. Especially if they gave me odds.

  5. ryebread 06/15/2009 at 4:56 PM #

    I’d never draft Teague ahead of Lawson. One has the body of a man, is a true floor general and was (IMHO) one of the top 5 players in college basketball last year who led his team to the national title. The other is light, erratic, plays out of control, struggled on the road and couldn’t lead his team past the first round.

    I understand drafting on potential, but I see a lot in Lawson and also a lot less risk. Teague might be a star, but he might be a bust too. I think he’s probably getting the benefit from the doubt from playing at the same school as Paul.

    GT will be pretty loaded next year. They should be a top 4 ACC team on talent alone. All the perimeter oriented ACC teams should be having nightmares about seeing Lawal and Favors in the front court with a decent PG (albeit a freshman) feeding them the ball. They’ll have two first rounders along the same front line paired with the other parts of a top 5 recruiting class. I’m not sure that even Hewitt can screw this up.

    Maryland just moved up considerably. With Vasquez back and angling to improve his draft stock, Maryland looks much tougher. This is already a team that gelled in the last 1/2 of the season.

    BTW, you heard it here first — Wake finishes in the bottom 4 next season. I think they’ve lost too much and don’t have the coaching to overcome it.

    Given our unproven players, we’re going to have our work cut out for us. I still think we can make the NCAAs next year given how weak the league will be, but I also think we’re going to see considerable movement in the standings.

  6. BJD95 06/15/2009 at 6:13 PM #

    Yes, I could see Wake being complete garbage next season. Maryland will be middle-of-the-pack like they always are. Tech still doesn’t have much guard play (I am NOT an Iman Shumpert fan), and they still have Hewitt coaching. Thus, their ceiling is probably 9-7.

  7. Cardiff Giant 06/15/2009 at 6:25 PM #

    Bad news for the Florists.

  8. Wulfpack 06/15/2009 at 6:34 PM #

    I also read earlier this month where Dwayne Collins is returning to the U. for his senior season. I don’t know what it is about that guy but he eats us alive.

  9. VaWolf82 06/15/2009 at 9:09 PM #

    I still think we can make the NCAAs next year given how weak the league will be,

    A weak ACC improves State’s chances of reaching 0.500 in conference, but does not improve State’s chances of making the NCAAT.

  10. choppack1 06/15/2009 at 9:45 PM #

    Interesting – of the two, I’d say that GV is closer to being ready to go. Teague has a long way to go physically AND mentally.

    I agree w/ the others that this puts Wake behind the 8 ball somewhat…and quite possibly lands Dino squarely on the hot seat. Don’t think for a second that Wellman doesn’t realize the poor track records of coaches who fall into Dino’s category. He’s still recruiting well, so it’s somewhat up in the air, but last years collapse won’t help things if next year things go badly.

    Who knows w/ UMd – did they lose Eric Hayes or does he come back?

  11. NCSU4ever 06/15/2009 at 9:50 PM #

    VaWolf
    I think 8-8 should be our minimum expectation for this season, but it will take at least 9-7 maybe 10-6 to make the NCAAT. The only way that happens is if every returning player improves and every freshman exceeds expectations. In other words I am not counting on dancing this year, def 2011 if this years class is solid and Ryan Harrow comes in and has a decent freshman year.

  12. Gene 06/15/2009 at 10:12 PM #

    The ACC’s supposed to be down every year, in June and we’re supposed to take advantage of it. Just doesn’t happen very often that we’re the only team improving.

    Look for growing pains next year and frustrating losses. I somehow hope we play better than we’ve been playing, but I don’t see it as likely.

    Too much depends on a couple of things that I’ve never seen happen at NCSU: (1) marked improvement of returning players and (2) the freshman don’t make freshman mistakes, like getting into early foul trouble or make careless turnovers.

    I’d like to be revved up with confidence about next year, but it’s just less painful to not care anymore.

  13. NCSU4ever 06/15/2009 at 10:42 PM #

    Several of our losses last year were close. I am counting on the fact that Brandon Costner not being on the court will be enough to turn those close L’s to W’s.

  14. rtpack24 06/16/2009 at 7:30 AM #

    The ACC will be as weak as they have been in along time. Should be interesting to see who finishes where.

  15. VaWolf82 06/16/2009 at 8:07 AM #

    but it will take at least 9-7 maybe 10-6 to make the NCAAT.

    You’re focusing on the wrong numbers.

    You need to go back and look at VT’s results from 2007. They earned a first-round bye in the ACCT, won on Friday, and still didn’t make the NCAAT. Why? Because their only top-50 win was against #40+ Miami in the NCAAT.

    If the ACC is actually weak, then State will have fewer opportunities to get the marquee win(s) needed to make the NCAAT. Without those wins, State will be left home just like mid-majors (and VT) who play all year and never beat anyone of significance.

  16. Wulfpack 06/16/2009 at 8:22 AM #

    VaWolf is right on. Because our non-conference slate is so weak, it makes winning 9 ACC games a necessity. That’s a tough road to hoe for a team and a coach who has never been there, done that. The weak conference will help, but I still don’t foresee much changing in the pecking order.

  17. StateFans 06/16/2009 at 9:00 AM #

    I disagree with the presumptions of needing 9 games to make the NCAA Tournament. Particularly before any of us have any clue the relative strength of all of the other programs throughout the country.

    Playing in a tournament, Northwestern (NIT last year returning 4 starters), Florida and at Marquette is not an excessively weak OOC.

  18. packalum44 06/16/2009 at 9:17 AM #

    4 out of 5 years we hear the same thing…ACC is going to be down.

    Wake Forest returns everyone from their top-3 recruiting class next year…so I guess our top 13 freshman class is going to beat up on their top-3 sophomore class!

    Teauge has much more upside than Lawson. With Lawson, what you see is what you get. He’s not going to get much better. What I saw last season was a superb college PG and the most improved player in the ACC who was a perfect cog in a well-runned, up-tempo b-ball machine. How will his skills translate to a half court offense? Seen any Bobcats games lately???? Pretty atrocious to watch Felton run the point in the NBA. Similar players except Lawson is shorter and not as good a shooter. Oh, and the guy guarding you in the NBA has the same athleticism and speed as you do. No Javy G’s or Greg Paulus’s.

    Teauge on the other hand has Chris Paul talent. He can weave in and out of traffic and has several inches on Lawson and an impressive offensive game. As Sidney Lowe so eloquently puts it, “He can score the ball.” He’s definitely a tweener SG/PG but he’ll get it done in the NBA with the right work ethic.

  19. packalum44 06/16/2009 at 9:22 AM #

    NCSU4ever: So all Lowe had to do was not play Costner this past season and we would have won more games???

    Costner was our best player! We lost a few games because Lowe sat Costner/Fells/Costner for ten minute stretches during the 2nd half!!!!!

  20. Wulfpack 06/16/2009 at 9:28 AM #

    Northwestern? Seriously? That’s now considered a strong non-conference game?

    No doubt Florida and Marquette are key games for us. It would be nice to have a few more of those type of games that can excite a fan base and can prepare you adequately for league play.

    SFN: Northwestern made the NIT last year, we didn’t. Northwestern returns four starters. Based on that, I would presume they will be battling for an NCAA Tournament. I don’t know anything else about them. But, at least I admit that I don’t know anything else about them. I don’t care the name on the jersey. Battling a potential NCAA Tournament team from a major conference is not a game that deserves to be criticized.

  21. ryebread 06/16/2009 at 9:50 AM #

    I agree and disagree with VaWolf. First, does 8-8 make the NCAAs out of the ACC? The vast majority of the time it does. That should be our minimal goal in conference.

    The thing is that 8-8 in the league really depends on the performance in the non-conference schedule. You can look at my posts from last year and I said that the NCAA tournament chances were over when we lost to Davidson, Florida and Marquette in the non-conference slate. Had we won those three, we’d have gotten in at 8-8 in the ACC. Given we lost those three, we probably weren’t getting in at 8-8. We didn’t get to 8-8 so it didn’t matter, but those 3 non-conference games pretty much sealed our fate.

    This year is no different. The league will be down — probably it’s weakest in my memory. This isn’t the cycle that Gene is talking about in my mind. This is a result of mediocre coaching, expansion, poor recruiting 2-3 years ago (go and look and you’ll see no ACC teams in the top 10 in recruiting) and the ESPN hype switching to the Big East. I predict we’ll lose the Big 10 Challenge for the first time, won’t be RPI #1 or #2 for the first time in years and will probably be looking at 4-5 teams in the tourney. That’s doom and gloom, but that’s what I see coming.

    As such, if we want to have a shot at dancing, we need to win our key non-conference games. It’s more important to beat Florida, Marquette, Arizona and Northwestern than it is to beat UNC or Duke. Lose to Florida, Marquette, Arizona and Northwestern and it doesn’t matter if we beat UNC and Duke each time we play them. The argument will be at the league is down and those big conference wins will be devalued. Beat those four teams and it doesn’t matter if we get our 8 ACC wins against all the lower ranked teams because we’ll be dancing.

  22. nycfan 06/16/2009 at 10:14 AM #

    The league lost a ton of guard talent and does appear to be down because of that, but there is a TON of great post talent, so a lot will depend on who develops PG/wing talent to feed the post.

    An 8-8 record in ACC play will be risky and a lot will depend on where the team in question picks up those 8 wins …

    I’m not so sure that WFU is a bottom 4 team, btw — to me, they are still an NCAA Tournament team though more of the bubble variety. UMd definitely becomes an NCAAT type team with Vasquez back. If they get anything out of the two freshman bigs, they could be a Sweet 16 type team.

  23. Wulfpack 06/16/2009 at 10:23 AM #

    I think Wake will be fine. Not as good as last year obviously but solid bubble material. Vazquez will keep MD in the dance and I think GT will be vastly improved IF Shumpert improves his decision making even marginally. Duke will lead the way with UNC a close second. I have no idea what to expect from Clemson and VT.

  24. Clarksa 06/16/2009 at 10:31 AM #

    I look forward to everyone blaming the “weak” ACC for us making the NCAA tournament next year…

  25. packalum44 06/16/2009 at 10:35 AM #

    Wake Forest tried to red-shirt a 5-star freshman last year, Ty Walker, but he declined (and played VERY sparingly). Fellow 4 star 7 footer Tony Woods rarely played…Not to mention Aminou will be back, probably 1st team all ACC. Their front court is loaded with TALENT. What Gino does with that talent is up to him. I know Gary Williams is drooling over himself to coach those guys.

    If you count Wake out then you don’t have very much insight into their roster. If you count them out because you think their coach sucks well how dare you! Everyone knows you need at least 4 season before anyone has the audacity to judge your performance! The rookie coaches are only making a million a year for Pete’s sake. Who demands a return on a million after 1 year?

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