Giglio: Pack is Pre-Season Atlantic Favorite

'09 Football Tom O'Brien56

Giglio neatly and concisely summarizes 83% of my thinking on the ACC’s Atlantic Division race. You can make a compelling case against all five other teams, but I think one can make a compelling case against State as favorites, too (basically, I think we are a year away from being a serious title contender).

That said, somebody has to win the division. And if somebody puts a gun to your head and makes you pick – why not the team that returns the most exciting offensive and defensive playmakers in the league? Especially when said team is exceptionally well-coached.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

'09 Football Tom O'Brien

56 Responses to Giglio: Pack is Pre-Season Atlantic Favorite

  1. Alpha Wolf 05/08/2009 at 8:46 AM #

    I don’t see the coaching staff pulling boneheaded moves like challenging Devin Hester the way that the previous regime did that. They are far too conservative.

    This Giglio prediction is very do-able.

    As for losing the lines after this season, this is where the recruiting each of the cycles for TOB will pay off. There may be a drop but don’t expect that the guys who redshirted and are working their way up the depth charts will stink it up.

    Obviously, the Clemson and FSU games will be keys, but I think we will have a very good chance of winning them. There is plenty of offense to go around on this Pack team and if the WR corps get sticky hands, that’s an offense that can move effectively through any part of the field, especially with RW under center.

    My big worry is the DB corps, but I think that they will be effective enough to allow the first two layers of the defense to get at a quarterback and make him make bad plays. And if he rolls and runs, let him wear Nate Irving or MAC long enough to get served a Carter-Finley Salad.

  2. Noah 05/08/2009 at 8:47 AM #

    We are suffering massive graduation losses after this year, chief among them virtually the entire starting offensive and defensive lines. We also may lose Irving to the NFL, and there’s the lingering possibility that Wilson quits to concentrate on baseball.

    The guys that are BEHIND the current starters are better than our starters. They just don’t have the experience.

    Next year, our starting OL will probably be:

    Sam Jones, Vermiglio, Camden Wentz, Zach Allen and RJ Mattes.

    The only question mark there is Wentz at center. But that’s a MUCH more athletic OL than what we’ll roll out this year. They just need some seasoning.

    On defense, we just signed a ton of DL help. Plus, some of the younger guys like Jeff Rieskamp and Marcus Kuhn have been coming on strong all spring. Sam Mageo will anchor the inside positions. JR Sweezy, if you can get him pointed in the right direction, is extremely athletic.

    I’m not worried about losing Irving because I think Terrell Manning has the potential to be better. Manning’s problem is that he hasn’t played football in two years (because of his knee), but he’s a better athlete than Irving.

    As far as Wilson is concerned…he’s hitting .270 with no pop. Can someone please point me to this huge rash of light-hitting middle infielders that get drafted in some super-secret NON-June players selection? I can’t find it. I’ve been all over the baseball cube and baseball reference. I’m a draft junkie.

    The guys who are getting taken in the first 10 rounds are all guys that are hitting about .370 in college. Dustin Pedroia hit .450 at Arizona State…one of the two or three GREATEST college baseball programs on the planet…and he was a late second-round pick.

    Why are you worried about a guy hitting .270 suddenly being a top pick and leaving?

  3. rtpack24 05/08/2009 at 8:56 AM #

    If our O-line comes along quickly and we stay healthy, I think we will be in the running for the ACC champ and one of the surprise teams in the country.

  4. choppack1 05/08/2009 at 8:57 AM #

    “There is no doubt CF will be rocking for the USC game. How long would we have to go back to a game at CF that really meant something and the parking lots and stadium were like days of P. Rivers?”

    That Thursday evening should be very special. Hopefully, the weather will co-operate. If it does, you’ll see the most rowdy crowd you’ve seen in a long time in C-F. It’s a night game, so the crowd will be up. I can’t wait.

    I’m actually more worried about Clemson than I am FSU. They are the one team that has really kicked our buts both years since TOB’s arrival. We were in the game vs. FSU both of those 2 years. The current FSU team is merely a shell of what it used to be. That may be change next year, but it’s really amazing how far they’ve fallen.

  5. Packman02 05/08/2009 at 9:07 AM #

    ^ I agree with Noah, re: the 2010 OL; that lineup needs some playing time to flesh out but, from a sheer talent and upside perspective, the 2010 OL should completely eclipse the 2009 line, in due time.

    Defensively, we’re building nice depth, even at the dreaded CB and S positions; Mangram (incoming safety) may move to LB eventually but, at present, he’s a head-knocker. Jarvis Byrd (CB) is a true frosh this year but has the potential to be better than any of our starters this time next year – there’s a reason the Seminoles made such a strong push for him down the stretch last year.

  6. bradleyb123 05/08/2009 at 9:11 AM #

    At one time last year, State had 7 walk-ons or former walk-ons on the two-deep. It will take some time to build State’s depth to a point where it can stand to lose play-makers to injuries….and injuries in football are a near certainty. It wouldn’t surprise me if State’s season hinges on the health of its starters.

    I’m no expert, and I don’t know what the future holds. But I don’t think you can assume we don’t have depth just because we used so many walk-ons LAST year. We had a LOT of freshmen that redshirted last year. Now they are the age of sophomores, and have a year of experience learning the system (even if they have no actual GAME experience). I think they add a tremendous amount of depth that we didn’t have last year.

    Pretty much our problem last year was a lack of depth. Our starters did pretty darn good when they were healthy. They just didn’t have many good backups. Now we have that. And we have a second QB if needed (heaven forbid!)

    I think we’re going to do very well this year. I have high expectations for this year’s squad… and yes, I can faintly hear the sound of a wolf howling off in the distance……..

    GO PACK!!!

  7. BJD95 05/08/2009 at 9:26 AM #

    If Clemson or Florida State get their shit together, there’s no reason they shouldn’t take the division. But based on recent history, nobody believes they will in fact get said shit together.

  8. Alpha Wolf 05/08/2009 at 9:48 AM #

    ^ The same could be said of our team since the Gator Bowl season. This year, the first five games will set the course for the season. Win all of them and we are on our way. 3-2 and we may be back in a cool-weather bowl game.

    Bottom line is to start as strong as we finished last season. Ignore the second half of the pizza bowl. The loss of RW changed that entire game.

  9. Thinkpack17 05/08/2009 at 10:18 AM #

    ^^Tell me about it. My family is from Jersey. I was up at their house for Christmas and we watched that game together. 3 of my family members are Rutgers alum. The first half I was standing tall, trash talking to the whole house. Second half…well I just got drunk.

  10. 61Packer 05/08/2009 at 10:23 AM #

    Please remember that there is only ONE USC, which is in Los Angeles, not Columbia.

  11. TheAliasTroll 05/08/2009 at 10:35 AM #

    I’ve already started tailgating for the Thursday night game. There is going to be hell to pay for Spurrier’s Game Cocks.

  12. choppack1 05/08/2009 at 10:56 AM #

    Alpha – it’s funny how what you think is the beginning of something special can really just be the beginning of the end.

    I’ll never forget the one drawback I had about that 2002-2003 season. I knew that we were so close to doing something special, but in reality, we’d really accomplished nothing special. The 2002-2003 team was absurdly talented – and started out 8-0. We lost 3 games we could have very easily won…win 2 of those games and we go to a BCS game.

    The next year, people forget, after some brain farts, we controlled our own destiny to win the ACC. After our win vs. UVa – which was as raucous as I’ve felt Carter-Finley – we went to Tallahasee – w/our swagger and the knowledge that we could beat that team. We were talented and our young players were now battle tested and coming into their own. We kicked FSU’s but that game, but some key TO’s kept us from being in the driver’s seat. We got the ball back w/ 2 minutes left in regulation of a tie game…The stage was set perfectly for a Philip Rivers led game-winning drive.

    We complete a big pass to Brian Clark – who fumbles trying to get an extra yard.

    We eventually lost in a second OT.

    I think a lot of fans remember that UMd game more the next week because of the Terps’ behavior and TA’s fumble w/ 1:32 seconds left.

    But those games to me will define the Amato era. A talented football team that played hard – and was usually prepared – but always seemed to make fatal mistakes. Much like HWSBN’d teams, I don’t think those miscues over a significant amount of time can be chalked up to bad luck.

    I’m really interested to see how TOB handles this year. At BC, his team was in the position to do something special and would always seem to have a key loss. This year at NC State, he may be better-positioned to have that special season from a talent perspective than he’s ever been.

  13. McPete 05/08/2009 at 11:15 AM #

    “We complete a big pass to Brian Clark – who fumbles trying to get an extra yard.

    We eventually lost in a second OT.”

    I remember that game well. But i thought it was TJ Williams, the tight end, that fumbled the ball trying to get a couple of extra yards.

  14. Alpha Wolf 05/08/2009 at 11:18 AM #

    ^ Good points, chop, but I think that this year marks the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.

    Our team limited its mistakes when it went on its run to become bowl eligible last year, and we have a quarterback who has tossed 250-odd passes since he’s been picked off. We don’t have the false starts, player conduct fouls and endless huddles waiting for plays to finally be called. And so forth and so on.

    I recall well the FSU game and I also recall how we gave that game away — and that was the hallmark of the Amato era, though most of us had yet to realize it.

    I disagree with you about Chuck’s teams being prepared – because to me part of preparation is to have your head in and above the game, which all too often his players didn’t. RYou remember the TA fumble when he struggled for a couple meaningless extra yards in an end of game scenario against Maryland. A PREPARED player would have been acutely aware of game situation, score and clock and known that it was more important to get down safely retain possession and let that clock keep ticking. The Brian Clark fumble you cited is another example of having your head in the game and retaining possession in a critical situation. And if I thought of it I could name another half dozen examples. Those players were not in mental control and they cost their team.

    That may sound harsh, but I view those plays as being as silly as being tagged out at third for the final out of an inning in baseball — a fundamental no-no.

    We don’t make those mistakes now, and I see a system coming into being that will provide quality depth in all postion groups. In other words, a program.

  15. choppack1 05/08/2009 at 11:47 AM #

    “I remember that game well. But i thought it was TJ Williams, the tight end, that fumbled the ball trying to get a couple of extra yards.”

    McPete – TJ williams fumbled too in that game. It was part of the reason FSU was able to stay close.

    Alpha – I see your point on overall preparedness. I guess I’ll put it this way – the teams had talent, and a gameplan that didn’t stop us from winning. However, you’re right, the attention to details by the individual players – and understanding the situation – was always a struggle.

    I’m not sure how things will bear out w/ TOB. I’ve already seen some subtle, yet telling differences in the attention to details from our players…(a play against ECU comes to mind where ECU’s QB was scrambling and our DB stayed w/ the receiver on a deep-route) – but we’ll see. Like I said, in the past TOB’s teams have been at the cusp, and haven’t been able to get over it. The big difference between his program and Amato’s was that this didn’t happen so many time – they just always seemed to be one game away.

  16. Noah 05/08/2009 at 11:59 AM #

    It was definitely Brian Clark.

    The killer was TA’s fumble right before the half. Instead of going for a two-minute drive, we tried to kill the clock when FSU had three TOs.

    HUGE mistake.

  17. VaWolf82 05/08/2009 at 12:34 PM #

    That same FSU game, State should have went for two and the win at the end of the first OT. There was exactly zero chance of State’s defense getting a stop…so why not go ahead and gamble for the win?

  18. BJD95 05/08/2009 at 1:19 PM #

    Situational coaching and clock management were HUGE problems for Chuck Amato. Made me insane.

    Remember when he accepted a 5-yard penalty after a failed 3rd and 3 in the “TA fumble” UNC game (sure FG range either way)? The Holes scored a TD on the next play, and I got rip-roaring drunk.

  19. choppack1 05/08/2009 at 1:25 PM #

    VaWolf – shades of the wolfpack game at Syracuse in – what 97?

    Noah – I went and checked the boxscore. I had forgotten about the TA fumble -but at the time we were winning 20-10 right before the half and were set to go in up by at least 10.

    We lost 3 fumbles that game. We did have a pick for an INT by our DL, but those 3 fumbles – and a missed extra point, well, if you’re looking for a reason we lost – there you go.

    I’ve never seen a running back as star-crossed as TA McClendon. He either seemed to win the game for you or lose it for you…He was amazing his freshman year, then mediocre his second year and a shell of himself his 3rd year.

  20. Alpha Wolf 05/08/2009 at 1:39 PM #

    ^ TA needed some humility.

    I think he was the player that changed Amato from disciplinarian to player’s coach, and once he made that transition, the team was the worse for it. I can remember a handful of players telling me that Amato had his teacher’s pets and that everyone on the team knew that those favorites could do no wrong in his eyes.

    Bad, bad mistake, IMO. Certainly every coach has his favorite and not-so-favored players, but you can’t treat some guys with deference all the time, especially when they don’t deserve it. TA did some good things, but he also acted like a spoiled little child from time to time. For example at the end of the tOSU game up there, when Rivers ran those sneaks consecutively, TA was on the bench because he was tired. Feature backs don’t get tired when the game is on the line, especially when you have three shots to win the thing from the one or two yard line. The good ones suck it up and get carried off on a stretcher if that’s what it takes.

    Recall also that little joke where TA acted injured at a practice to fool reporters? That apparently didn’t go over well at all for some of the guys playing through various injuries, and they really didn’t like TA’s attitude. IIRC, a lot of the OL didn’t like him at all, and there’s not an OL regular that’s not playing hurt by the 7th or 8th game.

    That’s when Amato started losing his team and once he started losing his team he started losing games and it steamrolled from there.

    I honestly believe that had Chuck been a better personnel manager with both his coaches and with his players, he would probably still be on the sidelines in Raleigh and would have the team in the upper four in the conference year in and year out.

    Still, though, no matter what our opinions of Amato, he really made the TOB era possible. Without a rebuilt CFS and a football center that’s as good as any, TOB probably doesn’t come here.

  21. Noah 05/08/2009 at 2:05 PM #

    Not only were we up 20-10, but we had complete control over that game. Had we gone down and scored, it’s over. There’s no point in FSU coming back out.

    We had a great gameplan for that game. We also had the most accurate QB in the league’s history for us and several very good receivers. Why NOT go the kill? You *CANT* run out the clock.

  22. choppack1 05/08/2009 at 2:31 PM #

    Noah – come on – Rivers was an INT machine – you had to run out the clock! Oh, wait a second.

    Alpha – interesting thoughts no TA on Amato’s transformation. In my mind, the transformation of the team occurred when it became Amato’s guys. It’s interesting that he never had a losing conference season w/ MOC’s folks, but never had a winning one w/ his own teams.

    I really wonder if the immediate, public success he enjoyed hurt his progression as a coach in the long run.

  23. packalum44 05/08/2009 at 2:44 PM #

    Amato ceiling was D-Coordinator. He simply isn’t intelligent enough to be a head coach. (socially or cognitively intelligent). On the other hand, TOB is very bright in many respects.

  24. bradleyb123 05/08/2009 at 3:22 PM #

    Rivers was so good, he MADE Amato look good for four years. Thanks to Rivers, we couldn’t see how bad Amato really was. Once Rivers graduated, then our eyes were opened to the mess the Chest had us in.

  25. choppack1 05/08/2009 at 3:55 PM #

    bradley – I don’t think that’s totally fair. Amato brought in a great staff initially which included Norm Chow. He also brought in the most talented recruits in the history of the school, one of whom became the 1st pick of the NFL draft.

    Plain and simple, something happened that changed Amato and/or how his players and staff perceived him. There’s a fine line being a good coach who has some personality quirks, to just becoming a joke….See Jerry Glanville for another example. Look at Mike Leach…

1 2 3

Leave a Reply