Pack’s ACC Tourney Scenario & Commentary: Maryland or VPI

08-09 Basketball General83

Via  the Washington Times, here is the current seeding situation the Wolfpack finds itself in for next week’s ACC Tourney:

Currently, NC STATE sits at 16-12 overall, with a 6-9 conference record

  • Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over Miami; the Wolfpack would lose all tiebreakers to both Maryland (0-1 head-to-head) and Virginia Tech (0-1 head-to-head)
  • Will be the No. 10 seed with a loss to Miami

And to review the schedule for the first two days of the tournament:

Thursday Matchups
No. 8 vs. No. 9, 12 pm
No. 5 vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 pm
No. 7 vs. No. 10, 7 pm
No. 6 vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 pm

  • Maryland will be the No. 7 seed with a victory at Virginia OR a Virginia Tech loss to Florida State.
  • Maryland will be the No. 8 seed with a loss at Virginia AND a Virginia Tech victory against Florida State.
  • Virginia Tech will be the No. 7 seed with a victory over Florida State AND a Maryland loss at Virginia.
  • Virginia Tech will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to Florida State OR a Maryland victory at Virginia.
  • Miami Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over NCSU.
  • Miami would be the No. 10 see with a loss to the Wolfpack.


And if State wins Thursday, Friday Matchups:
No. 1 vs. 8-9 winner, 12 pm
No. 4 vs. 5-12 winner, 2:30 pm
No. 2 vs 7-10 winner, 7 pm
No. 3 vs. 6-11 winner, 9:30 pm

Here are some of the second round possibilities:

  • Wake Forest will be the No. 2 seed with a win over Clemson and a Duke loss to North Carolina.
  • Duke will be the top seed with a win at North Carolina and a Wake Forest win over Clemson.
  • UNC will be the top seed if they beat Duke.

The following is some additional commentary and perspective:

  • NC State is locked into a first round game against wither Virginia Tech or Maryland.

  • State could finished tied with VPI and Maryland in the standings with everyone at 7-9 if VPI loses to FSU and MD loses to UVa and we beat Miam. But, among that group, we are 0-2, while VT is 1-1 and MD is 2-0. Maryland would be #7, VT #8 and NC State #9. We would play VPI in the first round.
  • Basically, VPI and Maryland are battling for 7/8 with Maryland owning the tiebreak should they tie; NC State and Miami are playing for 9/10. Those 4 play each other on Thursday in the ACCT, except we cant play Miami no matter what.
  • Best guess: (a) beat Miami, play VPI in the 8/9 game, or (b) lose to Miami, play MD in the 7/10 game.
  • With Miami losing last night, NC State vs Miami becomes a true standings game – loser is locked into the 10th position. Finishing 10th is almost better than 9th, because the 8/9 winner will be matched against UNC on Friday, while the 7/10 winneer will face Duke. We match much better with Duke than UNC. I think MD will finish 7th.

  • Having said that, I hope we beat Miami to get 7 ACC wins and finish 9th. It is much better to finish 9th, even if that means facing UNC on Friday because:
    (1) 7 ACC wins would lock up a NIT bid most likely
    (2) 7 ACC wins would be more than Herb Sendek ever got until his 6th year
    (3) Going from 4 to 7 ACC wins is a very nice improvement
    (4) 7 ACC wins doesn’t make us a bubble team. The ONLY way to make the NCAAT is to win the ACCT. I think its better to play UNC on Day 2 than Day 4 to do that.

  • I’d probably rather play Maryland than VPI on Friday (I think VPI is better), but we have shown we can beat VPI.
  • Unless we suddenly get the best officiated game in the history of our program, I think the only way we win the ACCT is if someone else beats the Holes for us. Six teams in the league are probably capable of beating them – MD, BC, Miami, Wake, VPI, FSU – as their Achilles’ heel is an athletic, high-scoring point or combo guard. That’s what beats UNC. We don’t have that, and neither does Duke or Clemson. I think UNC is 80% likely to win the ACCT, but if they lose I expect it will be to FSU in the semis.
08-09 Basketball General

83 Responses to Pack’s ACC Tourney Scenario & Commentary: Maryland or VPI

  1. redfred2 03/06/2009 at 4:41 PM #

    Greywolf, now I admit you were on a big roll yesterday, but that last post up there, there were more confusing division(s) problems in that post, then I saw all through grade school.

  2. redfred2 03/06/2009 at 4:49 PM #

    Hey, let’s not be too hard on KY and ktoh, they’re just missing, and a little out of their comfort zones regarding overall mediocrity.

    I just hope that we win against Miami this weekend, so then we’ll be A FULL THREE YEARS ahead of their hero’s ACC W/L schedule.

    Again, THANKS ALPHA!!!, that little tidbit you dropped yesterday is really going to come in handy around here.

  3. ktoh 03/06/2009 at 6:53 PM #

    ^ rf:Not my hero

  4. redfred2 03/06/2009 at 7:14 PM #

    So ktoh, are you new to this blog? Because I sure do NOT remember you jumping up and down back when never-ending mediocrity was the name of the game.

  5. ktoh 03/06/2009 at 8:34 PM #

    ^ I am as they say “old school” a State grad fairly new to comp and blogs ,but now have my middle grandaughter at state a soph .

  6. redfred2 03/06/2009 at 9:34 PM #

    OK then ktoh, congrats on both of those accomplishments, yours and your grandaughter’s! Must make you VERY proud. I’ll try to remember that about you in the future, but depending on your comments, I can’t really promise you anything. 😉

    Appologies for jumping you earlier. So, you’re burned up about the plight of NC State BB in general, and over the past several decades. That is certainly fine by me, I concur.

    I’m like you, eventhough I’m generally optimistic about BB and Sidney Lowe, I’m also waiting to see what will happen over the next few years. I am just glad that there was a change, that there is actual basketball, as in REAL basketball, to talk about once again, and I believe that Sidney is heading in the right direction. Whether he’s the one that can get us there, is yet to be seen, but I’ll take getting beaten fairly and squarely while playing the REAL game of BB, over conceding all control in winning or losing to a stone cold theory, every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

    Whoops, I went back into it again. My fault. I just hope we win againt Miami, make a good accounting of ourselves in the ACCT, see what happens after that, and then hope that we’ll see noticeable improvement in the talent level with next year’s additions. I honestly believe that there will be and that the good things that I thought Sidney Lowe would bring back to NC State from the very start are FINALLY starting to show through in his players.

  7. Greywolf 03/07/2009 at 10:19 AM #

    This is likely the last post in this thread and also likely will not get read.

    redfred2
    March 6th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
    “Greywolf, now I admit you were on a big roll yesterday, but that last post up there, there were more confusing division(s) problems in that post, then I saw all through grade school.”

    redfred,
    You think it was confusing to you? Hell, it was confusing to me. How about cutting me some slack here? I’ve said more than once I write mostly for my own pleasure. That was just a little trip down memory lane for me. And it did have a point.
    .
    ktoh,
    A belated welcome from another of the older generation of State fans. Have fun, don’t take anything personally and seek to contribute when you post. That would be my advice to anyone joining in here. Oh, and avoid personal battles as they are the least of all possible contributions to the conversation at hand.

  8. redfred2 03/07/2009 at 11:26 AM #

    Greywolf, I’m was just kidding.

    BTW, was that last sentence really intended for just ktoh? I think not. 🙂

1 2 3 4

Leave a Reply