NC State is a 12.5 Underdog to UNC

'08 Football57

It’s very hard to believe that UNC-CH is close to a two touchdown favorite against the Wolfpack. It’s a lot of fun going into this game with all of the sitting on Carolina’s shoulders.

Additionally, it has been announced that Cameron Sexton will start for Tarheels.

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'08 Football

57 Responses to NC State is a 12.5 Underdog to UNC

  1. CStanley 11/16/2008 at 7:31 PM #

    For us nothing to lose. For them, everything.

    Maybe for once we can play the role of spoiler to these assholes. God knows we’re due to return the favor.

  2. SEAT.5.F.2 11/16/2008 at 8:18 PM #

    Surprised that Sexton is actually still alive. After the UVa game he wanted to jump on the sword so this time I assumed he would go thru with it. Atleast we know win or lose Russell knows that you either made the plays or you didn’t and that real team leaders keep there chin high.

    Not to worry, we will win this one and 12.5 dog is bait, we’re 8-2 on the spread this year.

  3. wufpup76 11/16/2008 at 8:30 PM #

    “NC State is a 12.5 Underdog to UNC”

    … just means the fall will be that much harder

  4. sodstaple 11/16/2008 at 8:30 PM #

    I was out of town this weekend at a baseball tournament with my son, so we are watching the game on DVR rt now. 12.5 is alot considering how well RW is playing. I like our chances. We are playing sound, hardnose, never give up football, and it’s great to see after those years with CTC. GO PACK.

  5. choppack1 11/16/2008 at 8:48 PM #

    This line surprises me. Of course, history tells me that there’s usually a reason for these things – and if it seems to good to be true, it usually is.

    I do think we match up pretty well w/ the Heels..actually better than Wake. I don’t think Sexton is as strong as Skinner. UNC has relied upon INTs and big plays to win games this year – if we don’t throw INTs and make them sustain drives, I think we’ll be fine. I do think that their D line and LBs are as good as any we’ve faced this year, so our OL needs to bring it and our receivers can’t afford to have the dropsies.

    In last year’s game – we absolutely dominated them. You wouldn’t know it by looking at the scoreboard…they had 2 pick 6s and scored their only offensive TD on a trick play. We shut down their running game, and we were able to effectively move the ball on the ground.

  6. CStanley 11/16/2008 at 9:07 PM #

    As much as I hate to say it, we may have to play that “bend don’t break” D all day next week. Make them sustain drives, they haven’t been able to win doing that all year. Don’t give up the big play.

    On offense, continue to do what we’ve been doing. Don’t make mistakes. UNC has won by FEASTING on turnovers and big plays on defense.

    To win, it will have to be a fairly low scoring, nail biting affair. 24-20 type game.

    It may be unrealistic to think we’re going to go in there and win, but I like our chances right now better than any other time in the season. We’re playing our best ball right now and there’s no better time to be doing that than Carolina week.

  7. ncsslim 11/16/2008 at 9:52 PM #

    12.5… wow. I was wandering what the line might be, but I was thinking worst case in the 7 range. Obviously I’m the professional here and my ability to make money depends on an accurate line. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

    Regardless of who’s the pro or not, that seems like a foolish line. If only I were a betting man…. I may become one on this. Seriously. Somebody’s not paying attention.

  8. SuperStuff 11/16/2008 at 9:53 PM #

    I don’t see it as being unrealistic to win in Chapel Hole. Healthy players (Cash & Irving) on defense & Wilson as our QB this time around with him starting to hit his stride. I think it will be a good close game.

  9. charlieg87 11/16/2008 at 10:21 PM #

    I agree with cstanley. It will be tough to go there and win, esp after they just lost a heartbreaker to maryland. Those players are gonna be mad as hell so we’re just gonna have to bring our A game. I’m real surprised sexton is starting over yates again? Not really sure whats going on there…

  10. Alpha Wolf 11/16/2008 at 10:28 PM #

    Ask any player and if they are honest, they will say that anger only lasts so long in the next game. Sure, it can carry you for a while, but after a series or two, it’s this week and not last week.

    Besides, it isn’t like State will be lacking emotion themselves…their season is on the line, and this IS Carolina, after all. Don’t think that the Wolfpack will walk onto the field the way they did two years ago and don’t think that they’ll lay down and let the Heels have their way without a fight.

  11. Ismael 11/16/2008 at 10:32 PM #

    UNCCH gave up alot of rushing yards to UMD. I see that as good for us. I was actually thinking that might be a nice wrinkle: really concentrate on running the ball with Brown and Eugene, come right at them.

    I was gonna say, i have been more impressed with Andre Brown than at probably any point in his career. He is ridiculously disciplined running between the tackles, Eugene too. Against Wake it was so nice to see him run into a pile, spin around some and still get 3-4 yards out of it. For the last 2 years UNCCH has had a mediocre run defense so let’s really pound it at them.

    I think Russell is just gonna be Russell, and that’s all we need, arms and legs. The bright spot tat i see is that WF has some of the most experienced LB’s in the conference and they had fits with RW, interesting to see how old Butch-slap is gonna try and deal with him.

  12. Ismael 11/16/2008 at 10:34 PM #

    For all those thinking UNCCH may want revenge etc after blowing it to UMD then i concur, that is conventional thinking, but i also see where they could be a little emotionally spent as well.

  13. blpack 11/16/2008 at 11:35 PM #

    We should all just be grateful the holes are allowing us to be on their field this Saturday. They should probably be bigger favorites.

  14. Greywolf 11/16/2008 at 11:42 PM #

    It is far more likely that an emotional downer will happen than an anger binge. In the 60’s NCSU was 8-0 and ranked about #3 in the nation when we lost a heart-breaker at Penn State. Tony Barchuck(sp) was stopped on a 4th down dive over the top by Dennis Onskontz (sp) to deny us the win. I saw the game on a special hook-up in Reynolds. Great atmosphere to watch an away game if you can’t go.

    The next week we went down to Clempson and played like we were in a cesspool — going through the movements — but just had no life at all. Not only did we not have the juice we needed, the freakin wind killed us. I forget what the details were but I think we chose to go into the wind in the 1st half, thinking it would be better to have it at our backs in the second half. We couldn’t do squate and our punts were almost going backwards. Literally, blowing backwards after about 25 yards in down field. In the second half, the wind died if not reversed and we had no advantage and could not come close to coming back.

    I hope the Heels are as sick about losing to Md as I was happy for them.

    This was a good weekend sports wise. 5 wins. NCSU football and basketball, Panthers football win, the Canes in hockey in a shoot out, and of course UNX losing. You didn’t know that counted same as a win? 😉

  15. b 11/17/2008 at 2:30 AM #

    Ismael makes a great point, I thought the UNC defense looked susceptible to the staright ahead I against Uva and VT as well. The GT style misdirection and slow developing run plays were not successful. They look to take the ball away in the passing game, so more running would limit the risk. Also, the team that runs for the most yards wins this game almost every year.

    The nightmare matchup and likely the reason for the big spread is their WRs against our secondary. We need our front seven to really control the LOS to pull this one out. Maximum bending likely.

    I like the special teams matchup, expect a big play from TJ.

  16. BJD95 11/17/2008 at 6:30 AM #

    Happy thought of the day – win this one, and we’ll have the same ACC record as the great Butch Davis.

  17. Ismael 11/17/2008 at 7:58 AM #

    that butch davis sure is great isn’t he

  18. Scooter 11/17/2008 at 9:39 AM #

    If not in any other game, the “bend-not-break” has to work this week. Stopping will be the key to beating UNC. Our secondary is going to really have to step up against a very talented group of UNC receivers. Hopefully, we’ve got a little more gas in the tank than they did at this point in the season last year.

    The line will certainly move, but where it ends up is anyone’s guess. Also if we look at things historically, the team who needs the win the most has traditionally lost…

    I think UNC is a beatable team for us, provided we can play what would be our best game of the season. We would need big performances from everyone (or we would need UNC to seriously wet the bed). On a personal level, I hope we beat them badly enough that they end up in Boise.

    I now begin my week of silence…

  19. sautz 11/17/2008 at 9:39 AM #

    I’m not very high on this year’s team, but this would be a great bet to make some cash. I don’t see any way we lose by more than 10.

  20. SEAT.5.F.2 11/17/2008 at 9:58 AM #

    The idea of “Bend but don’t break” as a philosophy from the coaching staff is fiction. How do I know, well by common sense ofcourse. During practice coach Archer does not tell the LB coach to give insructions to Nate Irving that are differnet then other players. Nate Irving tries to break people because he has speed, instincts and plays all out to the whistle.

    Let someone join in on the fun that our DC takes his years coaching in the pro’s, including as LB coach for the Steelers (they were really soft, right?) and is giving the players instruction how to stop teams, force three and outs and get field position.

  21. Dr. BadgerPack 11/17/2008 at 10:06 AM #

    I’m sure the 12.5 point spread is largely due to the pine tree intimidation factor.

  22. Noah 11/17/2008 at 10:12 AM #

    There IS a difference in the defensive philosophies employed under Amato and under O’Brien.

    Amato liked to play that FSU style. Tall, fast and lean guys putting pressure on the QB, press coverage in the secondary, and you make your living off of sacks and interceptions. The downside to that defense is that you can eat it alive just by running straight at it.

    O’Brien and Archer want a completely different scheme. The cornerbacks are more like safeties. They use a lot more zone coverage and they have to be able to come up in run support. While we do blitz in this scheme, they make sure that they blitz from different directions to create confusion. Amato liked to overwhelm you. O’Brien likes to bring a corner on one blitz and then bring the linebackers on another and then use a zone-blitz (Kuhn dropping into coverage in the fourth quarter) the next time. O’Brien loves to show you something and then show it before the snap and do something completely different to mess up your pre-snap reads.

    Under Amato’s defense, you’re more likely to give up the 80 yard pass, but you’re just as likely to be in a third-and-17. O’Brien’s defense is less vulnerable to the big play. To score, you have to put together a 12-play, 80-yard drive. He’s hoping to maximize the chances for you to screw up.

    It’s not so much “bend, but don’t break” as it is, “Let’s not lose this game 84-21.”

  23. FrankManor 11/17/2008 at 10:27 AM #

    there’s no way that line will stay that high once Vegas gets word that Sexton is starting…

    the margin will be in the single digits.

  24. GAWolf 11/17/2008 at 10:27 AM #

    And State fans being State fans when AMato was here I heard a lot of screaming int he stands for more zone. Now that we’ve changed philosophies I hear a lot of screaming for more press man.

    I’m not sure this says anything about State fans that’s any different than any other fan base, but it’s just something interesting I’ve noticed.

  25. Noah 11/17/2008 at 10:45 AM #

    I’m not sure this says anything about State fans that’s any different than any other fan base, but it’s just something interesting I’ve noticed.

    I have to tell this story again.

    At the last State game I attended (Wake, two years ago), we had a sequence in the game where we ran the ball several times in a row. The guy behind me stood up and screamed, “THROW THE DAMN BALL, AMATO!” On the next play, we DID throw it. I can’t remember if the pass was intercepted or just incomplete, but the guy stood up and without the slightest bit of irony, screamed “RUN THE DAMN BALL, AMATO!”

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