NC State vs. Georgia: Super Regional Preview

The Wolfpack Nine will travel to Athens to take on the SEC regular season champion Georgia Bulldogs (18-6 winners over Georgia Tech in a decisive regional contest) in the Super Regional round of the NCAA baseball tournament, which opens at noon on Friday. Super Regional format has the host team “home” for the first and the guest team “home” for the second game. For that and more superfluous information that is a sure-fire cure for insomnia, I invite you to check out the NCAA Baseball Championship handbook. ESPN indicates we would be visitors in the third game, but I have no idea if the coin toss has in fact been conducted yet after looking into this (thanks for the heads up WolfpackCoach17). Yes, the Super Regionals are one step away from Omaha, home of the college world series.

After pitching its way through the Raleigh Regional, NC State will start to see some tangible benefits from their success in the form of exposure. The family of ESPN networks will cover the Super Regional Rounds and the State/Georgia matchups will be featured on the “big channels” with the opening and third games slated for ESPN and game two aired on ESPN2. Of the 16 remaining teams, 4 (25%) are from the ACC and SEC tournament champion LSU is the other remaining SEC squad. In regional competition, Georgia went 4-1 (with a loss to 4 seed Lipscomb in the opener) and outscored it’s opponents 56-27; the Wolfpack swept through Raleigh with a 3-0 mark, outscoring it’s opponents 13-7 (giving up 7 runs in three games with the aluminum bat is just ridiculous). Let’s meet the teams: RPIs are taken from Warrennolan.com. NC State’s regional performance hasn’t gone unnoticed in the polls; the Wolfpack jumped 10 spots in the latest Baseball America rankings.

Team RPI Runs Scored Runs Allowed HR SB/Att ERA Errors
NC State Wolfpack 6 414 243 61 54/76 3.36 76
Georgia Bulldogs 16 439 338 85 69/92 4.72 69

Offensively, the two teams put up about an equal number of runs. The biggest differences are in terms of star power and, well, power. Again State will face an opponent with some tremendous thumpers in the lineup, lead by SEC Player of the Year, and National POY candidate, Gordon Beckham (Shortstop). The Wolfpack will look to their arms again, as they gave up about 100 fewer runs over the course of the season than the Bulldogs. Georgia runs a bit more on the basepaths and at a slightly higher rate of success. Both teams are successful at swiping bags over 70% of the time, which is right around the threshold for making SB attempts worthwhile (at least according to a few analysts). I’ve mentioned Beckham, let’s go ahead and look at his numbers– and the numbers of other offensive leaders. I’ve expanded table composition to include some other numbers of interest/importance in an attempt to improve on my regional preview (better round, ought to be a better preview, eh??):

Offensive Leaders

Player Team Average On Base % Slugging % HR RBI SB/Att
Ryan Pond NCSU .332 .410 .528 8 45 5/6
Pat Ferguson NCSU .327 .426 .548 9 39 2/3
Marcus Jones NCSU .327 .409 .512 7 48 12/13
Matt Payne NCSU .319 .402 .495 9 47 6/10
Jeremy Synan NCSU .306 .398 .454 6 39 6/10
Gordon Beckham UGa .397 .505 .781 24 65 17/18
Rich Poythress UGa .364 .455 .641 15 64 4/7
Bryce Massanari UGa .346 .429 .548 10 59 2/3
Matt Olson UGa .333 .398 .494 8 41 5/9
Ryan Peisel UGa .332 .412 .515 8 46 12/16

Georgia is a little top-heavy when it comes to offensive production (but it’s a Pamela Anderson top). State appears to have a little more lineup depth than Georgia, which honestly shocked the crap out of me as I was going through the numbers. This means a couple of things: first, State should be able to effictively work the Georgia pitching staff and second, State absolutely cannot afford to issue free bases to the bottom half of the Bulldog order. State’s pitching has been a strength (in other breaking news, Yao Ming is tall) all season long; let’s hope that trend continues. Here’s a glance at some of the pitching leaders for both squads.

Pitching Leaders

Player Team W-L ERA IP K BB Opp. AVG
Clayton Shunick NCSU 7-5 2.16 95 2/3 108 23 .215
Jake Buchanan NCSU 2-2 3.11 55 39 13 .191
Eric Surkamp NCSU 5-2 4.39 69 2/3 82 34 .280
Eryk McConnell NCSU 4-2 5.07 49 2/3 25 18 .296
Joey Cutler NCSU 5-0 2.68 40 1/3 43 8 .222
Stephen Dodson UGa 5-4 4.41 87 2/3 46 12 .266
Trevor Holder UGa 7-4 4.60 78 1/3 54 21 .300
Nathan Moreau UGa 4-2 4.93 65 2/3 51 30 .268
Dean Weaver UGa 5-1 2.91 43 1/3 45 15 .245
Nick Montgomery UGa 3-2 4.01 51 2/3 53 14 .244

Georgia doesn’t feature a lot of guys that issue walks; however, they also don’t feature a lot of strikeout pitchers. This bodes well for a team that thrives on putting balls in play as opposed to hacking for the occasional longball. We’ve spoken a lot in recent days about the strength of State’s pitching staff. To reflect just how good some of these guys are, I’ve added the opponent’s batting average column. The numbers under Shunick and Buchanan are just plain sick. On balls put in play (approximated, I haven’t taken double plays or sacrifices into consideration– that’d take a while longer than I have– but these are going to be pretty close), opponents are batting .301 against Shunick (put in perspective, this is about the average for your typical major league pitcher). Buchanan yields a .227 average on balls put in play- that isn’t just ridiculous, it’s ludicrous. I can’t underscore how difficult it is to allow only 22.7% of balls put into play to fall for hits with the aluminum bat in play; he’s either very good, or very lucky– but after watching him against Miami in the ACC tournament, I’d lean further to the side of “good.”

This should be an outstanding weekend of baseball for the Wolfpack. We’re in a regional that we have at least a reasonable chance of winning. Of course, other teams have been in the “reasonable” position before, and we all realize it comes down to execution. I definitely know I’ll be watching Saturday and Sunday; and yours truly is already hatching a plan to weasel out of a Friday afternoon meeting (gotta have my priorities in order, eh?). No matter what, this team has had a wonderful season and for the most part played well. I don’t doubt that the trend of good play will continue this weekend. It’s going to be a lot of fun, and of course– GO WOLFPACK!

Note: For complete statistics, see the following:
North Carolina State Wolfpack
Georgia Bulldogs

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About Dr. BadgerPack

NCSU Class of 99 and PhD University of Wisconsin, 2006... Which should adequately explain the screen name I chose at 2am one Saturday...

Baseball General

28 Responses to NC State vs. Georgia: Super Regional Preview

  1. WolfpackCoach17 06/03/2008 at 10:26 AM #

    Just an FYI on the home/road thing. As the higher seed, Georgia gets to be the home team in the first game. Then the NCAA reverts to their “formula” on who is home and road based on how the rest of the round played out. Because this is only two teams, it’s a pretty simple formula.

    Georgia home in the first game.
    Second game: Because NC State has 0 home games and 1 road game, and subsequently, Georgia has 1 home game, and 0 road games, then NC State is guaranteed to be home.

    Third Game: Both teams have had 1 home game and 1 road game, so the home team is determined by a coin flip.

    (just quickly looking at last year’s supers to confirm, UNC was home, road, road in their 3 game set at home against South Carolina, so apparently they lost the coin flip)

  2. packpigskinfan23 06/03/2008 at 10:40 AM #

    ^at least we know they can lose at something…

  3. highonlowe 06/03/2008 at 10:40 AM #

    FYC:

    Friday, June 6
    North Carolina State (41-20) at No. 8 Georgia (39-22-1), noon (ESPN)

    Saturday, June 7
    No. 8 Georgia at North Carolina State, noon (ESPN2)

    Sunday, June 8
    North Carolina State at No. 8 Georgia (if nec.), 4 p.m. (ESPN)

  4. Dr. BadgerPack 06/03/2008 at 11:00 AM #

    Ugh… Never trust ESPN for anything (unless the coin flips have already been done and their schedule reflects all the national seeds winning the tosses).

    This is some convoluted crap…

    http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/baseball/2008/2008_d1_baseball_handbook.pdf

    Although they don’t apply a “formula” after game 1, they just say alternate games 1 and 2 (unless seeding is equal and 1 isn’t a national seed…).

    Leave it to the NCAA to complicate something bloody simple… At any rate, I think I’ll modify the body of this thing accordingly.

  5. Dr. BadgerPack 06/03/2008 at 11:09 AM #

    Other fun tidbits…

    Use of speed guns by participants is prohibited. The host institution also should not display any speed gun displays on the scoreboard or video board showing the speed of each pitch.

    Team mascots are not to be allowed on the field at any time.

    If an institutional fight song is played before the start of a tournament game, it must occur during that institution’s infield practice or during the time allotted for pregame preparation of the field. Under no circumstances can the game be delayed to accommodate the playing of an institutional fight song.

    Gotta love the NCAA

  6. WolfpackCoach17 06/03/2008 at 11:21 AM #

    While we are on the ball, here is the wording from the NCAA:

    Determination of Home Team (Super Regionals)
    Two Teams Advancing With Different Regional Seeds.
    For game one, the higher
    seed will be the home team. The lower seed will be the home team in game two.Acoin
    flip will determine the home team in game three, if necessary.

    Also, just peeking at last year’s Louisville game notes:
    “The teams will meet at 2:00 p.m. ET Friday with Oklahoma State serving as the home team. The game will be televised by ESPN2. Saturday’s meeting will take place at 12:00 p.m. as the Cardinals will be the home team. ESPNU will broadcast Saturday’s game, and if a Sunday game is necessary, first pitch will be at 4:00 p.m. with ESPN carrying the broadcast. A coin toss will determine the home team.”

    For what it’s worth as well, we won the coin toss against South Carolina that took place immediately after the James Madison game to determine who was the home team for Saturday night. Tony Haynes mentioned something about it on the post game broadcast on the way home. So, I’m 99% sure that the coin toss won’t take place until after game 2 is completed. Therefore, ESPN just put something up to be putting something up.

  7. WolfpackCoach17 06/03/2008 at 11:30 AM #

    I tell ya, that thing does cause insomnia! Ok, I read it one more time. The Super Regional game three home team will be determined at the pre-tournament meeting. That meeting generally takes place the day before the tournament. It’s not something they do over the phone, both coaches have to be there in person. So anyway, it is not set now. It will get set most likely on Thursday. Odds are that people like us won’t know about it because the people that do find out (I’m sure the broadcast crew would/could find out) won’t think it’s interesting enough to mention until that game actually becomes necessary.

  8. wufpaxno1 06/03/2008 at 12:21 PM #

    I am not real sure about any of this, I will have to consult the Magic Eight Ball for final clarification.

  9. highonlowe 06/03/2008 at 3:01 PM #

    I posted the schedule just for a convenient reference of game times and broadcast channels (to negate a click-thru),
    but, you’re probably right about the coin toss.

  10. cowdog 06/03/2008 at 6:52 PM #

    Just chiming in to wish the boys best of luck…and to do what we could not on 3 consecutive attempts.

    Miami, Miami and South Carolina got us. Perhaps the best run ever in baseball for State, but we never saw the field in Omaha.

    Well, we’ve dispatched one old nemisis. And we ain’t playin’ Miami, so things look pretty good Karma wise.

    From an old player/historian, I appreciate the verve from you guys on what the boys are doin’

  11. redfred2 06/03/2008 at 7:43 PM #

    I’ve never been a huge fan of watching baseball for the simple fact of, “Now at the plate it’s the DH…he’s batting 305…against left handed pitchers…in this ballpark… when it’s above 53 degrees…the wind is blowing slight West, Southwest…cloudy…but especially only after he’s had a good bowel movement earlier in the day”. I mean, it’s fun game to play, more of thinking man’s game and not really action packed throughout. But THE STATS? I don’t know if they THINK they’re making what’s happening on the field more interesting by talking it to death, but they do go a little overboard with statistics as far as I’m concerned.

    The older I get I am beginning to appreciate just watching the game much more though.

    DBP: The good BM is key… You don’t want to have a lot of tension at the plate… Seriously, the beauty of baseball is you can make it as simple or as complicated as you like. It’s solely at the discretion of the observer.

  12. graywolf 06/04/2008 at 7:51 AM #

    Weather = HOT !!

  13. BoKnowsNCS71 06/04/2008 at 8:00 AM #

    Does anyone know who was the wise one that was able to convince Tom Holliday to come coach our pitchers? He has done a great job and has a resume from great programs. Did the coach do that or someone else? Whomever, that was one nice hire.

  14. PAPacker 06/04/2008 at 8:18 AM #

    Wonderful job Dr. Badger Pack. Thanks so much for taking the time.

    DBP: Thanks for the compliment. As you can tell, I get into this baseball stuff.

  15. Dr. BadgerPack 06/04/2008 at 9:32 AM #

    Bo- I couldn’t find a direct answer to your question, but did stumble across this– HOLY CRAP! This is a must read…

    http://www.texassports.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=18&url_article_id=4506&url_subchannel_id=&change_well_id=2

  16. Ed89 06/04/2008 at 9:38 AM #

    PLEASE KEEP THIS GUY!!! Do NOT let him go! Why did he leave OSU??? Wow – I also didn’t know Matt Holiday was his son…good stuff!

  17. Classof89 06/04/2008 at 9:41 AM #

    Obviously, we can’t outpay UT, so Holladay must have had some personal/family considerations in coming here…anyone have the scoop?

    There are aspects to the head coaching job that some guys hate–maybe he just wants to coach baseball–not recruit, deal with the media, NCAA compliance, etc…

  18. McPete 06/04/2008 at 10:37 AM #

    Classof89,
    the article linked states that holliday is a longtime close friend of elliot avent and i’m guessing that has something to do with it. plus he has a more important role as recruiting coordinator.

  19. Paul Westerdawg 06/04/2008 at 10:43 AM #

    Oh, we’re playing the UGA Fight Song all right. And we’re going to play it throughout the game. Just not over “the stadium speakers.” You guys are in for some serious comedy this weekend. lol.

    We’re also prohibited from playing individual player “theme music” before they walk up to the plate for their at bat. But we do that too. Just not over the official speakers.

    Like I said…you’re in for some comedy. I hope your fans come with a sense of humor.

    Friday will be VERY tame. But Saturday and Sunday (if necessary) will be a different beast entirely.

    DBP: Is this a Super Regional or the circus? 🙂

  20. statemech 06/04/2008 at 12:57 PM #

    how about ESPN continuing to give us some love:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=3424966

    amazing how success breeds attention from the media

  21. PackerInRussia 06/04/2008 at 9:59 PM #

    Concerning Holliday, as I remember it he and Coach Avent chatted it up after or during the regional when State eliminated Texas (or maybe just beat them; I’m having trouble remembering). It seems that a big part of Holliday coming was his friendship with Avent and the promise to let him handle recruiting and have a big say in how things were done. He had some standards that needed to be met when it came to recruiting (nothing ground-breaking, just that they HAD to be very successful in recruiting) if he was going to be a part of the NC State program. This of course was based on the success he had been apart of with teams in the past that he wanted to replicate in Raleigh. That was probably the best regional we had in a long time and it had nothing to do with the game being played, but the coach that we got out of it. I was really excited (and shocked!) when he decided to come. I hope he plans on sticking around. His contribution to coaching is already obvious. You might even say Coach Holliday rivals Facilities as one of the main reasons for the Pack’s success this year (sorry, couldn’t help it).

  22. Paul Westerdawg 06/05/2008 at 9:45 AM #

    > DBP: Is this a Super Regional or the circus? 🙂

    Why can’t it be both?

  23. Dr. BadgerPack 06/05/2008 at 9:53 AM #

    ^I suppose both is fine. Regardless, it should be an entertaining series on the field.

  24. WolftownVA81 06/05/2008 at 11:52 AM #

    I haven’t followed Pack baseball this year but have enjoyed reading these entries (props to DR.BagerPack). I’m actually pretty excited about this weekend and now plan to watch all the games.

    Thanks for the link statemech, very nice ESPN article.

  25. statemech 06/05/2008 at 6:36 PM #

    was browsing gopack.com, and I found this nice collection of notes about our boys:

    NC State Team Notes

    49 solid pages with every stat and note from any angle you want

    what I think is a key stat going into this weekend: we are 28-6 when we score first

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