Thursday Night Bytes

Some quick basketball comments of interest:

* Due to the performance of some of our opponents, NC State has crept to #37 in the RPI having played the 27th toughest schedule in America. You can expect that SOS to only get more difficult at State still has four (of eight) games against teams that look NCAA Tournament bound – @ Maryland, vs UNC-CH, vs Duke, vs Clemson.

* Speaking of Clemson…the Tigers won by 31 points at Virginia tonight. That is great for the ACC and potentially for NC State. The conference NEEDS for there to be a couple of bad teams to feed wins to our ‘2nd tier’ that I think consists of Clemson, Maryland and NC State. Similarly, I refer you to some comments made in this entry for more clarity on this:

The Atlantic Coast Conference exhibits phenomenal balance across twelve teams and is currently the top rated conference in the RPI. For example, the ACC doesn’t have a team with an RPI currently worse than #86 while the Pac-10 four teams with RPI’s worse than the 12th team in the ACC – Washington, Arizona State, California and Oregon State. You read that correctly. The great Arizona State that the media has been lauding as such a succeess story currently sits at #91 in the RPI, forty spots behind NC State and five spots behind the ACC’s worst team.

The ACC’s balance is fantastic. But after listening to idiots like Doug Gottlieb last night who extolled his unwaivering conviction that the Pac 10 is clearly the best conference in America because it is so difficult “from to to bottom”, I am concerned that the ACC’s depth of balance is not being appreciated by the college basketball community and therefore will ultimately hurt the league’s chances of obtaining our fair share of NCAA Tournament bids.

Therefore, I think that it is imperative that the ACC needs more teams to establish themselves as clear NCAA Tournament teams while creating a more clear differentiation between the haves and the have nots. Basically, it would be better for the conference for some teams to start succeeding at the expense of other teams. For example, it would be particular helpful if Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest started losing more to NC State, Clemson, Miami, Maryland and Florida State.

* Virginia has gotten so bad that we almost MUST win our game there next weekend to protect our RPI from taking too big of hit. A loss would be really tough on our numbers.

* Fox Sports Jeff Goodman made some interesting comments in this blog entry titled “N.C. STATE BETTER WITHOUT COSTNER?”

Hickson, who went to the foul line 17 times last night (Virginia Tech went just 10), said he has also begun to understand that the NBA will still be there for him and he doesn’t need to push the envelope. “I’m starting to trust my teammates more,” he said. “If our guards make open shots, it’s only going to free me up for shots later in the season.”

* Goodman wrote a blog entry a couple of weeks ago where called NC State the nation’s “biggest disappointment”. We didn’t link to the comments because we thought that they were a tad premature. Additionally, we were particularly perplexed that these comments would come from Goodman without any focus on the loss to injury of Farnold Degand – Not only is/was Degand’s injury very relevant to mitigating labels like ‘diasappointment’, but it was Goodman who wrote a very insightful piece into the value of Degand over the offseason before most other media outlets had ever heard of Degand. In light of Goodman’s obvious understanding of both Degand’s virtues and the point guard situation at NC State one would think that he would be a little more fair and patient in such extreme labels.

* It is obvious that Maryland is making a serious run at being the #3 team in the ACC. Clemson looks okay for the #4 spot, but that is certainly attainable for us as well. The Terps RPI continues to be hurt by their poor early season OOC performance.

* Positioning for the ACC Tournament is key, as we may very well need a ACCT win or 2 to get in due to the difficulty of the remainder of our schedule. We may end up in one of those situations where our RPI is on the bubble, but our total wins are optically a little light around 17 or 18 wins (ECU and UNO continue to haunt us).

* Obviously, a top 4 seed means a bye Thursday. But its also important to fininish no worse than 6th. 5th place gets you the #12 team on Thursday, and slots you against the #4 team on Friday. 6th place gets you the #11 team on Thursday, and slots you against the #3 team on Friday. I think we can beat anyone in the ACCT not named Duke or UNC. Duke and UNC are going to finish #1 and #2, so we need to avoid them early. Therefore, we want to avound finishing 8/9 or 7/10. We need VT to start losing some games. Their schedule is so easy that they could stand in our way of finishing in the top 6, even though we are a better basketball team.

* Got a nice note from a reader the other day stemming from some of our comments after the Wake Forest win,

Man, I’m glad you mentioned the “sudden” ability to win close games. THAT was my No. 2 gripe about Herb Sendek — his teams, reflecting his personality, folded in the final minutes of a tight game. The UConn/Sweet 16 win was remarkable because it was that rare, rare, RARE Herb game when the final play/final shot WORKED — and that was because Julius waved off the TO.

Plus, the switch to the zone late in the second half, which worked. And once again no lead is safe — 12 point deficit to FSU in the first half, 9 point deficit to Wake midway through the 2nd half.

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07-08 Basketball

46 Responses to Thursday Night Bytes

  1. wufpup76 02/07/2008 at 10:29 PM #

    good entry … as for uva – no one, least of all our team – should take them lightly … they have plenty of talent and when they play hard they’re actually not that bad (won @ the great arizona and destroyed boston college) … but when they’re bad, they’re bad – the same could be said about us though …

    if uva is still struggling when we play them it will be the exact type of “letdown” game that mentally soft teams (such as ours) struggle mightly in … i would hope that the team would have learned that you can’t take ANYONE lightly and expect to show up and win by now … let’s certainly hope that doesn’t happen

    as for goodman, i personally think he’s a hack and just slings crap around to see what sticks and hopes to stir up controversy … but where have we encountered that before?

    while ben has earned his role and deserves every minute he will get, we’ll still need brandon to be the ’06-’07 version of himself before long

    go brandon go and goooo pack!

  2. tvp1 02/07/2008 at 10:31 PM #

    I remember during Chuck’s last year, I took an hour or so and figured out the records of all the ACC coaches over Chuck’s tenure in games that were 8 points or less at the 4 minute mark of the 4th quarter.

    Not surprisingly, no coach was winning or losing 80% of the time. But there were significant differences. Amato was the worst in these close games. TOB was close to the best. The difference between there performances was the difference between going bowling and staying home.

    Coaching in tight games DOES matter. And Sid is getting it done in close games this year with a freshman PG recruited to be a backup and only 1 senior on the roster. How do you think he’d do with a veteran team with a stud PG?

  3. JeremyH 02/07/2008 at 10:33 PM #

    is anyone impressed with what Sean Miller is doing over at Xavier? not bad. Brandon is going through some quicksand, there is no way his talent has disappeared, he is just going through something and needs our full support.

  4. backinpack 02/07/2008 at 10:48 PM #

    Brandon is going through some quicksand, there is no way his talent has disappeared, he is just going through something and needs our full support.

    I can’t agree more, JeremyH. After the scoring outburst at Duke it’s obvious he can play. Brandon is either hurting physically or mentally. I wish him well and hope he can work through it because he is kid with a ton of natural ability that shows up when he plays with full intensity and effort.

  5. Trip 02/08/2008 at 12:36 AM #

    I love the guys we have out there, but Costner is immensely talented, almost as much as Hickson. If we want a real chance at slashing through any tournament, he’s going to have to come alive. Right now, yes, we are better without him… but damnit, if he was playing like he was last year I’d put him out there as much as possible.

  6. choppack1 02/08/2008 at 8:42 AM #

    Jeremy – I’m not particularly impressed w/ what Sean Miller has done at Xavier – because I know my history. Bob Staak, Pete Gillen, Skip Prosser and Thad Matta all did well there. For whatever reason, Xavier tends to have good basketball teams. I think Sean Miller is doing well and the program certainly hasn’t taken a step back – but don’t mistake success at Xavier as likely success at another big time school.

    I’m looking at a magic # right now of 5 (in our next 9 games) for the Wolfpack. The key for us will be winning the games we can/should win – @BC, @ UVa, FSU, and Clemson at home. I think a tournament bound team beats Clemson on their home court. Our RPIs are close – and yes, between our improvement and the home court advantage, I think we have a very good shot against the Tigers.

    It sure would be nice for us to get to 9-7 somehow in the regular season. This would do 2 things for us: 1) It would insure us of an at-large bid. 2) There’s a good chance we’d get a bye in the first round of the ACC tourney (9-7 is probably good enough for the 4 spot.)

    I’m not sure if we get there. The best thing I can say about this team – is that we are improving and there’s still plenty of room for improvement.

    Against VaTech, I mentioned that if we didn’t turn the ball over AND we rebounded well, we should win the game. We rebounded well and won the game. We still haven’t played our perfect game yet. Contrary to popular belief, I think the best half of basketball we’ve played all year was the 1st half at Duke. Against VaTech, we played a team that struggles offensively. We totally shut them down in the first half playing excellent D. This included getting back on D in fast break situations (a weakness for us all year.)

    What does that rambling paragraph mean? It means if we can rebound AND take care of the ball, we can play w/ anyone in the ACC. I’d go as far as saying that we should win at 4 of the games in our final 8 and could win as many as 6 if we improve in those 2 areas and continue to do the things we’ve done well most of the year.

    Finally – our team deserves a little more credit from the pundits for the following: A very respectable 8-5 record vs teams in big time conferences. Against teams from these conferences not in the Top 25, we’re 8-1 – this includes 2 wins on nuetral courts, 2 road wins, and a 4 home wins. This bodes well for the second half of our season if we can keep it up. We’ve shown the ability to beat other “bubble-busters”. What I’d really like to see in the second half is for us to get a “take notice” win – and we’ll have 3 opportuninites to do that at home.

  7. packbackr04 02/08/2008 at 9:00 AM #

    wow, who would have ever thought losing to ECU IN GREENVILLE would come back to haunt us. i mean, it was a win/win. We do our buddy Holland a favor and it really makes a lot of sense from a baskteball standpoint as well, in that it really boosts your rpi win or lose.

    man, its tough to be sarcastic on a computer. But i think yall get my point. thanks lee for all your help in actively trying to keep your programs down!

  8. Noah 02/08/2008 at 9:11 AM #

    Question about the strength-of-schedule…does it look at the schedule you’ve played? Or does it factor in future opponents as well? In other words, if you have an SOS ranking of 25 and you play the #1 team in the country in a week, does your RPI already factor in future matchups?

  9. choppack1 02/08/2008 at 9:21 AM #

    Noah – I don’t think it does. I’m almost positive our RPI is based on who you have played to date and their record and their opponents record.

    If this is the case, I would think if we go 5-4 or better our next 9 games, our RPI would remain at it’s current very strong 37 and would likely move up a bit. Heck, we may even be able to go 4-5 in this stretch and keep our RPI where it is.

  10. RickJ 02/08/2008 at 9:24 AM #

    ^RPI only uses games that have been played. Our SOS should go up based on who we are playing in the future. This is the reason some of us believe an 8 – 8 ACC record will easily put us in the tournament.

  11. TNCSU 02/08/2008 at 9:46 AM #

    ***Recruiting News Flash*** Scott Wood, 6-5 wing from the same H.S. as Mays in Indiana, has committed to State. Looks like a shooter.

  12. packgrad93 02/08/2008 at 9:49 AM #

    “Man, I’m glad you mentioned the “sudden” ability to win close games. THAT was my No. 2 gripe about Herb Sendek — his teams, reflecting his personality, folded in the final minutes of a tight game. The UConn/Sweet 16 win was remarkable because it was that rare, rare, RARE Herb game when the final play/final shot WORKED — and that was because Julius waved off the TO.”

    imagine that, players making plays to win games. A coach can only put their team in a position to win, the players themselves have to actually win it.

  13. choppack1 02/08/2008 at 10:01 AM #

    packgrad – from someone who didn’t think the Sendek years were totaly misery (I reserve that for Les Robinson) – and someone who thinks Sendek is a good basketball and would have liked to have seen him succeed – please know this:

    Any objective assessment of Sendek’s tenure at State has to include the fact that after his first 2 years, his teams had trouble winning close games and had a tendency to fold in big games when they had played great for 35 minutes. We don’t need to rehash the sad details which saw us lose a Sweet 16 bid and ACC Championship…but when something happens over and over again- it’s probably not luck.

    Sendek did a great job prepping his team for the 30 minutes of a game – but the reason he was never really popular at NC State is because he had trouble the last 5 minutes of these games. You can blame the players if just happens once in a while or if it happens one year on a regular basis, but the inability to close out games (in spite of being a great foul shooting team) was as much a hallmark of his tenure as his Princeton offense.

  14. packbackr04 02/08/2008 at 10:04 AM #

    funny, but “” could never seem to get our players into a position to do anything at the end of the game except hoist up an off balance three ptr from 30 ft as time expired. hmmm yeah. and now twice this yr, our players have been in a position to get the look we wanted (yet didnt score) only to have a designed trailer swipe the board and put back the game winner/tie as the clock wound down. yeah, funny how that happens when a good coach puts his players in positions to make plays.

  15. packgrad93 02/08/2008 at 10:18 AM #

    & the beat goes on …..

  16. packbackr04 02/08/2008 at 10:22 AM #

    damn Scott Wood? wheres Lo Brown? weve got enough wing players!

    Id love to see the breakdown of schollys for 08 and then 09.

    it seems like we will have a logjam of SG’s and wing Players, NO CENTERS OR PF’s on the roster in 09? with the esception of CJ Leslie?

  17. TNCSU 02/08/2008 at 10:26 AM #

    We need shooters, though. He’ll be a good compliment to John Wall — and maybe Ryan Kelly….or a certain PF or two that we are looking at….

  18. Ismael 02/08/2008 at 10:42 AM #

    Article on Scott Wood

    http://www.chronicle-tribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071202/SPORTS/712020337/1006/RSS02

    Excerpt:

    After the game, Marion head coach Joe Luce praised Wood’s shooting performance.

    “Scott Wood is one of the best players in the state of Indiana and he showed it,” Luce said. “Along with Julius, who is a senior candidate for Mr. Basketball, Scotty Wood has to be considered in that same light.”

    So if sidney and co. get two consecutive mr. basketball’s from Indiana, who can claim that accomplishment, maybe Bob Knight.

  19. Rick 02/08/2008 at 10:56 AM #

    ” A coach can only put their team in a position to win, the players themselves have to actually win it.”

    THe difference being one coach puts his team in a goos postion to win and the other does not. Take off our blinders.

  20. packgrad93 02/08/2008 at 11:30 AM #

    “NO CENTERS OR PF’s on the roster in 09? with the esception of CJ Leslie?”

    T. Smith will be here & possibly Costner. Need a C though, Favors?

  21. Trip 02/08/2008 at 11:44 AM #

    This is what I like to see.

    Senior guard Julius Mays led the Giants with 26 points, going 16-for-16 from the free throw line.

    He must have a good shooting touch to do 16-16 at the charity stripe. With that many free throws he has to be a penetrator, as well… Which is something we need.

  22. Redblogger 02/08/2008 at 11:59 AM #

    Who is Favors?

  23. packgrad93 02/08/2008 at 12:01 PM #

    ^ Derrick Favors is the #1 C in the nation & one of Sid’s top targets for ’09.

  24. Rochester 02/08/2008 at 12:06 PM #

    Mays and Wood both missed their game yesterday. From the Chronicle-Tribune:

    “Mays missed the game following an appendectomy and Wood was out for a fifth straight game with bad bruise on his left leg. Wood was hoping to play Thursday, but he had leg cramps during warm-ups and was kept out of the game.

    Afterward, Scott Wood Sr. announced his son has made a verbal commitment to play for North Carolina State for the 2009-10 season, where he will join Mays. Wolfpack assistant coach Monte Towe was at the game Thursday.”

    Get well soon, Julius. And welcome aboard, Scott.

    Wood is only a junior, so Fells will be gone by the time he gets here. We’ll need some outside shooters who can actually shoot.

  25. wufpup76 02/08/2008 at 12:18 PM #

    posted this in the campout thread, though it may be more relevant here

    …………………………

    sorry for the hijack / off-topic post, but john brady has been fired by lsu this morning …

    brady’s name was thrown out there as a potential candidate for our job prior to last season … i was glad that didn’t happen, but that’s nothing personal against the guy

    a little surprised they would fire him when they went to the final four just a couple of seasons ago … whenever i see lsu play on tv, it always seems they don’t have much of a crowd … not sure what firing the coach will do for that, but whatever

    we “ran off” herb after such a glorious 10-year run (even though he left when key people wanted him to stay) and got skewered in the media … let’s see the outrage for firing a coach in late-season just two seasons removed from being in the final four … my guess? nothing like that will happen as it will be construed as an sec school rightfully trying to get itself to the top … for some reason it’s unreasonable for nc state fans to want to win … anyway, we’ll see what happens

    go pack

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