OTR: ACC Record & NCAAT Chances [Updated (10:10am) w/ SOS Links]

Note: If you are somewhat new to SFN and have recently become a reader because of our feature in the NC State Alumni Magazine then please don’t hesitate to click here for somewhat of an opening message.

If you were to click on the “Archives” tab just above the headline to this entry then you would see a host of “tags” and “categories” that can more easily direct you to to past entries here at SFN.

One of the categories that you can browse is titled “On the Record” (Click here to browse) that we sometimes shorten to “OTR”. OTRs are just one place where we go “On the Record” with a prediction &/or expectation and expressly ask you to also log your take on the topic.

NC State’s regular season is just under 50% complete – 14 out of conference games are behind us and 16 conference game remain. A better time therefore could not exist to go ‘On the Record’ and share predictions for NC State’s 2007-2008 ACC Basketball record.

‘At the turn’ the Wolfpack sits 11-3 with an RPI of #59 after playing the 158th toughest schedule in America.

(Please note: we have not played the 158th toughest out of conference schedule in America as many teams have already started conference play. Addtitionall, State’s SOS would have been somewhere in the 70s if it weren’t for our last two games against PC and NCCU. While still producing an OOC SOS SIGNIFICANTLY more acceptable than our previous regime, Coach Lowe’s staff could do themselves a favor by just slightly improving a couple of our cupcakes as the difference between the actual strength of #320 and number #200 is much less significant than the actual impact on our rankings of playing #320 and #200.)

Before the season began I projected that an 11-3 OOC record was the most likely scenario for the Wolfpack heading into ACC play. Of course, had you told me that the Pack would have beaten Villanova, Davidson, Seton Hall and Cincinnati while telling me nothing else I would have been ecstatic and presumed we would be 13-1 at this time. UNO and ECU threw a wrench in those plans.

The impact of the UNO and ECU losses on our season are not to be dismissed yet. As you will see in a moment, due to the strength of our ACC schedule, if the Wolfpack had actually achieved that 13-1 OOC record then we could have skated to an NCAA Tournament berth with a 7-9 ACC record and a 20-10 overall record with little problem.

Heading into ACC play I suggest that you start your analysis by clicking here to give yourself a more clear idea of just how difficult the Wolfpack’s conference slate is this season.

The rest of the ACC’s RPI is currently listed as follows:

(2) UNC-CH
(17) Duke
(36) Florida State
(46) Clemson
(48) Miami
(57) Wake Forest
(73) Virginia
(91) Georgia Tech
(102) Virginia Tech
(110) Boston College
(137) Maryland

In summary, NC State plays:

* NINE games against ACC opponents currently ranked in the RPI’s Top 50.* ELEVEN games against the ACC’s six highest rated teams in the RPI.* only ONE game against the worst rated team in the league, and that is on the road...and here is the killer —

* only FOUR games of a mathematically possible EIGHT match-ups against the lowest rated four teams in the league.

Adjusting for the fact that NC State cannot play ourselves, this means that we effectively play every team in the top 45% of the league for the MAXIMUM amount of games possible while playing every team in the bottom 36% of the league for the MINIMUM amount of games possible.

I’ve heard/seen a lot of people make uneducated projections about the minimum standards needed to get NC State into the NCAA Tournament this season. But, as usually goes with the internet, you get a lot of their opinion without a lot of fact or rational thought behind that fact.

Allow me to propose that if NC State were to achieve an 8-8 ACC record against this difficult of a conference schedule (while the ACC is ranked as one of the best leagues in America this season) that there is no way in hell that a 19-11 Wolfpack squad who would easily be ranked in the RPI’s Top 35-40 would fail to make the NCAA Tournament (unless we lost by 25+ in a Thursday game in the ACC Tournament and was on a painful losing streak at the end of the year).

With all of that said, accounting for the fact the NC State’s already weak and inexperienced backcourt has been impacted by the season-ending injury to our starting point guard in tandem with injuries to our two best shooters (Courtney Fells and Dennis Horner)…I am predicting a most-likely scenario of a 6-10 record for this year’s Wolfpack and an NIT bid with a stretch possibility of an 8-8 record and an NCAA Tournament bid. If the Wolfpack’s record were to fall outside of either side of this 6 to 8 win range then my disappointment or happiness would be greatly enhanced.

To note, the injuries – not just to Degand but the potential residual/lingering impact to Horner and Fells – definitely impacted my prediction. Had Degand remained healthy I would logged an 8-8 expectation which would have presented a strong three game (60%) improvement from last season.

We’d love to see what you think in our comments section…but, we are going to ask you to limit your comments to focusing very much on the topic as in the future we are not going to want to click on this entry and ready random conversations. (So, don’t be surprised if some of your off-topic comments disappear).

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109 Responses to OTR: ACC Record & NCAAT Chances [Updated (10:10am) w/ SOS Links]

  1. haze 01/11/2008 at 7:50 AM #


  2. wolfonthehill 01/11/2008 at 7:50 AM #

    Wow – I didn’t think my 5-11 would look like such an outlier.

    But I have no reason to pick us in more than 5 games on the schedule.

  3. wolfonthehill 01/11/2008 at 7:51 AM #

    I mean, 15-1. Otherwise, my career as a psychic is shot.

    Gavin Grant

  4. zahadum 01/11/2008 at 8:12 AM #

    Given no further injuries, I’ll also go for 8-8.

  5. 82_furn_grad 01/11/2008 at 8:18 AM #

    I figured that talent wise we were five wins bettter this year overall than last year. I’m hard-headed so I’m gonna stick with that overall prediction. That means that we are gonna go 9-7 in the conference.

  6. CarnifeX 01/11/2008 at 8:18 AM #

    7-9…I think we’ll get at least one of the four against Carolina or Duke. Faith in the Red Blazer.

  7. graywolf 01/11/2008 at 8:25 AM #

    A lot of people are shooting for 8-8. I think that college basketball’s most valued players are guards and expecially point guards. We are lacking at this position currently and if things don’t change we are going to be in trouble.

    That being said 8-8 is a lofty goal that we don’t reach.
    I think 6-10. I wish I could be more optimistic.

  8. WendellPackster 01/11/2008 at 8:30 AM #


  9. Redblogger 01/11/2008 at 8:46 AM #

    9-8 Sidney gets so pissed off he make them play one of the games twice.

  10. Noah 01/11/2008 at 8:47 AM #

    4-12. I don’t know where we are going to get four wins…but that’s my pick. Even in the worst years of Les, we managed to get two or three wins. We’re better than that…so…4-12.

  11. ldr of pk 75 01/11/2008 at 8:47 AM #


  12. TNCSU 01/11/2008 at 8:49 AM #


  13. ncsubch2000 01/11/2008 at 8:56 AM #

    9-7 +/-1. We played much better against Davidson/Cinncinati/Seton Hall than in the last three games. Hopefully we get some of that back.

  14. Jamie 01/11/2008 at 8:58 AM #

    I am going to say 9-7, with my only disclaimer being that it would be more w’s, but I cannot shake the image of that stinker at MSU. I am afraid that against truly top 10 competition, if we get too far behind, we just may pack it in. I am encouraged, however, that we have struggled early through the lighter competition. Somehow, I think that will make us better in close games against the lesser teams of the ACC.

  15. packer74 01/11/2008 at 8:59 AM #

    6-10. Haven’t seen much improvement in the areas that were exposed during the Michigan State game. This team still: shoots poorly from 3-point range, is weak at point guard, doesn’t block out on the boards, is slow on defense, and lacks intensity. Hope I am wrong but it’s difficult to be optimistic looking at how many tough opponents the Pack plays in the first half of the ACC schedule.

  16. packbackr04 01/11/2008 at 9:01 AM #

    4-12 and another spirited run in the acc tourney which sends us right back to the NIT;s and the recruiting trail. Sid needs to find an outside threat.

    Im also really worried right now that Costmer may go pro. I cant believe how good he has been, and his conditioning has been nothing short of spectacular. the man is a physical specimen. hes a lottery pick any way you cut it. state fans are folly to think he will stay another yr

  17. Par Shooter 01/11/2008 at 9:03 AM #

    6-10 or 7-9. I can’t think of a year where we have a wider range of possibilities but my guess is we end up being hampered by guard play and outside shooting all year. I could see anything from 4-12 to about 10-6 being legimately possible.

  18. primacyone 01/11/2008 at 9:08 AM #


    Javi and MJ will be three times the guards they are now by the end of January. And that is six times the guards they were about 4 weeks ago.

  19. Texpack 01/11/2008 at 9:14 AM #


  20. brown pelican 01/11/2008 at 9:19 AM #

    looks like 5 and 3 at home—losses from the pool of unc, duke, clemson, miami, and virginia—should wins—wake, umd, and vpi—probably 2 and 7 at best on the road—suprise one of the 5 from the pool of potential home losses and get one of the should wins at home on the road as well—7 and 9 as the end result—win two tournament games and sneak in as a 10 seed in the middle of nowhere on a thurday afternoon—go pack

  21. DireWolfNY 01/11/2008 at 9:20 AM #

    Realsitically, we’re limping into ACC play. I hope we can get some momentum, but from what I’ve seen 8-8 will be a success. I want to say we’ll win more, but I just haven’t seen it from this team… yet.

  22. BJD95 01/11/2008 at 9:29 AM #

    If I were setting an over/under line for ACC wins, it would be 6.5. Since I am a raging pessimist, I’ll vote 6-10.

  23. ChuckAllYall 01/11/2008 at 9:33 AM #


  24. ADS95 01/11/2008 at 9:40 AM #

    9-7 regular season, but it may be like the football season (i.e. BAD at the start)

    2-1 ACC Tournament.

    2-1 NCAA Tournament, with second round win over Arizona State (cuz the NCAA is vindictive like that).

  25. RTPMedic 01/11/2008 at 9:41 AM #


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