OTR: ACC Record & NCAAT Chances [Updated (10:10am) w/ SOS Links]

Note: If you are somewhat new to SFN and have recently become a reader because of our feature in the NC State Alumni Magazine then please don’t hesitate to click here for somewhat of an opening message.

If you were to click on the “Archives” tab just above the headline to this entry then you would see a host of “tags” and “categories” that can more easily direct you to to past entries here at SFN.

One of the categories that you can browse is titled “On the Record” (Click here to browse) that we sometimes shorten to “OTR”. OTRs are just one place where we go “On the Record” with a prediction &/or expectation and expressly ask you to also log your take on the topic.

NC State’s regular season is just under 50% complete – 14 out of conference games are behind us and 16 conference game remain. A better time therefore could not exist to go ‘On the Record’ and share predictions for NC State’s 2007-2008 ACC Basketball record.

‘At the turn’ the Wolfpack sits 11-3 with an RPI of #59 after playing the 158th toughest schedule in America.

(Please note: we have not played the 158th toughest out of conference schedule in America as many teams have already started conference play. Addtitionall, State’s SOS would have been somewhere in the 70s if it weren’t for our last two games against PC and NCCU. While still producing an OOC SOS SIGNIFICANTLY more acceptable than our previous regime, Coach Lowe’s staff could do themselves a favor by just slightly improving a couple of our cupcakes as the difference between the actual strength of #320 and number #200 is much less significant than the actual impact on our rankings of playing #320 and #200.)

Before the season began I projected that an 11-3 OOC record was the most likely scenario for the Wolfpack heading into ACC play. Of course, had you told me that the Pack would have beaten Villanova, Davidson, Seton Hall and Cincinnati while telling me nothing else I would have been ecstatic and presumed we would be 13-1 at this time. UNO and ECU threw a wrench in those plans.

The impact of the UNO and ECU losses on our season are not to be dismissed yet. As you will see in a moment, due to the strength of our ACC schedule, if the Wolfpack had actually achieved that 13-1 OOC record then we could have skated to an NCAA Tournament berth with a 7-9 ACC record and a 20-10 overall record with little problem.

Heading into ACC play I suggest that you start your analysis by clicking here to give yourself a more clear idea of just how difficult the Wolfpack’s conference slate is this season.

The rest of the ACC’s RPI is currently listed as follows:

(2) UNC-CH
(17) Duke
(36) Florida State
(46) Clemson
(48) Miami
(57) Wake Forest
(73) Virginia
(91) Georgia Tech
(102) Virginia Tech
(110) Boston College
(137) Maryland

In summary, NC State plays:

* NINE games against ACC opponents currently ranked in the RPI’s Top 50.* ELEVEN games against the ACC’s six highest rated teams in the RPI.* only ONE game against the worst rated team in the league, and that is on the road...and here is the killer —

* only FOUR games of a mathematically possible EIGHT match-ups against the lowest rated four teams in the league.

Adjusting for the fact that NC State cannot play ourselves, this means that we effectively play every team in the top 45% of the league for the MAXIMUM amount of games possible while playing every team in the bottom 36% of the league for the MINIMUM amount of games possible.

I’ve heard/seen a lot of people make uneducated projections about the minimum standards needed to get NC State into the NCAA Tournament this season. But, as usually goes with the internet, you get a lot of their opinion without a lot of fact or rational thought behind that fact.

Allow me to propose that if NC State were to achieve an 8-8 ACC record against this difficult of a conference schedule (while the ACC is ranked as one of the best leagues in America this season) that there is no way in hell that a 19-11 Wolfpack squad who would easily be ranked in the RPI’s Top 35-40 would fail to make the NCAA Tournament (unless we lost by 25+ in a Thursday game in the ACC Tournament and was on a painful losing streak at the end of the year).

With all of that said, accounting for the fact the NC State’s already weak and inexperienced backcourt has been impacted by the season-ending injury to our starting point guard in tandem with injuries to our two best shooters (Courtney Fells and Dennis Horner)…I am predicting a most-likely scenario of a 6-10 record for this year’s Wolfpack and an NIT bid with a stretch possibility of an 8-8 record and an NCAA Tournament bid. If the Wolfpack’s record were to fall outside of either side of this 6 to 8 win range then my disappointment or happiness would be greatly enhanced.

To note, the injuries – not just to Degand but the potential residual/lingering impact to Horner and Fells – definitely impacted my prediction. Had Degand remained healthy I would logged an 8-8 expectation which would have presented a strong three game (60%) improvement from last season.

We’d love to see what you think in our comments section…but, we are going to ask you to limit your comments to focusing very much on the topic as in the future we are not going to want to click on this entry and ready random conversations. (So, don’t be surprised if some of your off-topic comments disappear).

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109 Responses to OTR: ACC Record & NCAAT Chances [Updated (10:10am) w/ SOS Links]

  1. Sweet jumper 01/10/2008 at 10:15 PM #

    8-8, and I am probably being too generous.

  2. dbo2874 01/10/2008 at 10:15 PM #


  3. Slader4881 01/10/2008 at 10:24 PM #

    I’m thinking we get out to a slow start with our road games and we finish strong….8-8

    I know that sounded bad before the year started, but now after seeing this team to this point that would be a huge get for the team

  4. tppack12 01/10/2008 at 10:35 PM #

    Are you people watching the same team as I am? I hate it like hell but I see us at 5-11 on the NIT bubble.

  5. HungryLikeTheWolf 01/10/2008 at 10:36 PM #

    16-0 or maybe 15-1 since we could still lose one more game according to Gavin. The power of positive thinking!

  6. ltm3434 01/10/2008 at 10:49 PM #


  7. Cardiac95 01/10/2008 at 10:49 PM #

    6-10 and needing a run in the ACC Tourney to qualify for the Dance.

  8. ruffles31 01/10/2008 at 11:10 PM #

    9-7. We play to the level of our competition.

  9. Akula Wolf 01/10/2008 at 11:18 PM #


  10. spanky 01/10/2008 at 11:20 PM #

    there is absolutely no way in hell to even dream of an educated guess at this. It would not surprise me to finish ANYWHERE from winless to undefeated in the ACC. However if I was forced to guess… I am (for some unforeseen reason) feeling incredibly optimistic and am gonna say 10-6.

  11. red-enough 01/10/2008 at 11:23 PM #

    the first half is gonna be rough, and we might only go 3-5 through those first 8 (road games at unx, clemson, and duke) but I see the boys continuing to gel and finishing off with a decent run at the RIGHT TIME of year.
    The talent WILL WIN OUT!
    BTW- some of you need to learn what it means to be a FAN.

  12. sautz 01/10/2008 at 11:24 PM #

    6-10 seems most likely.

  13. Trip 01/10/2008 at 11:28 PM #

    We should put up another “predict our ACC” record thread after Carolina and then again after Clemson and see if the numbers shift dramatically one way or the other. For right now I’m going to go with spanky and say that we have no clue what we’re gonna end up with. I’m going to say 9-7 as my official guess, but after Carolina/Clemson we’ll see how that changes.

    If the team that showed up against PC/ECU/NO/NCCU shows up… 2-14.

    If the team that showed up against Seton Hall/Villanova/Cincey shows up… 10-6

    If the team that showed up during our run in the ACC tournament… Gavin might have a chance to be right after all.

  14. backinpack 01/10/2008 at 11:30 PM #


  15. #44 17 24 01/10/2008 at 11:34 PM #


  16. PackFan 01/10/2008 at 11:34 PM #

    I agree that its very hard to tell, but I’d have to guess 9-7. Sounds kind of like a cop out answer here, but it may depend a good bit on how long we are without Fells. BTW, anyone heard more than “sprained ankle”?

  17. coppertop 01/10/2008 at 11:50 PM #

    7-9 but hopefully better.

  18. JeremyH 01/11/2008 at 12:07 AM #

    i predict it will wobble, it will drag it’s bottom, and then it will sprint to a spectacular finish.

  19. turnoffthetv 01/11/2008 at 12:40 AM #


    2 games we blow-out the other team (2-0)
    2 games we are blown out by the other team (0-2)
    12 Nail Biters that we Split(6-6)

  20. Dr. BadgerPack 01/11/2008 at 2:01 AM #

    I like the idea of 8-8; I’d say better if we didn’t play 6 against the top 3 teams. The bottom 2/3 of the conference has looked good at times, and laid up some real stinkers as well. I do think we’ll manage a win out of those matchups with the top 3 teams, probably Clemson who has managed to be consistent with their history- start strong then look like crap. Duke can possibly be had if they aren’t hitting from the perimeter (sound familiar?)

    I actually like the idea of us starting with such a difficult schedule– with so many young players, it can’t get MORE difficult as the season progresses. While we may take our lumps early, this should help acclimate JJ and the PGs to the rigors of ACC play in a hurry.

  21. bTHEredterror 01/11/2008 at 2:15 AM #

    I won’t be shocked if its 6-10 or 12-4 depending on injuries and breaks, I can’t be confident in anything they’ve done to this point. I certainly reserve the right to change my mind after Saturday, too.

    Here goes anyhow.

    There are a lot of winnable games. But they have played down to competition, until they get over that flaw they are average. So I expect they will be fairly close to middle of the road.

    UNC is probably too solid, but Duke and Clemson have flaws that will give us a chance to stay close. Miami and FSU are over-rated, I’ve seen both play. BC and UVa have no answers inside, but have solid PGs. Wake, VT, Md and GT have more serious flaws than we do. I expect we find a way to steal two from among UNC, Duke, and Clem (2-4), split FSU (1-1), sweep Wake (2-0), and go 4-2 amongst the rest (BC, Uva, VT, GT, UMD, Miami). 9-7.

  22. ErB 01/11/2008 at 2:28 AM #

    13-3 no question.

  23. wbnation 01/11/2008 at 4:20 AM #

    at UNC = loss
    at Clemson= loss
    Miami= win
    Georgia Tech= win
    at FSU= loss
    at Duke= loss
    Wake= win
    VT= win
    at Maryland= loss
    at BC= loss

    Clemson= win
    North Carolina= loss
    at Virginia= loss
    FSU= win
    Duke= loss
    at Wake= win

    maybe we get lucky and sweep FSU and Miami and make it a respectable 8-8, but my moneys’ on 7-9 or maybe worse.

    SFN: I think this a great projection. I have highlighted the road games at Maryland and at Boston College. If, for the most part all other things generally hold serve, then those two games could determine the season. Both of those teams have relatively bad RPIs and therefore losses to them would hurt a little more. However, since both of those games are on the road, then wins against them have a juiced impact on our RPI. So, I think that we are on to something here; I also think that the road game at Virginia may fall into the same bucket.

  24. Wulfpack 01/11/2008 at 7:29 AM #

    There is really no way to know. We have been an enigma for sure. And I’m not so sold on Clemson. It’ll be same ole, same ole for the Tigers. They put all of their eggs into UNC and came up short once again, then lost to Charlotte at home. So let’s not get carried away with the Tigers being so great just yet.

    I think we will lay a whole lot of eggs, but win a few big ones to ease our pain. I think we have another great showing in the tourney that will increase our NCAA tourney chances.

    Who knows? I guess if I had to guess…6-10 and another trip to the tourney finals.

    Such is the life of a Wolfpack fan.

  25. Carnot 01/11/2008 at 7:46 AM #

    7-9. I like to think that’s a pretty reasonable and conservative estimate, but I’m scared to think how wrong it might be.

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