How is UCLA Fourth?

General NCS Basketball24

This is why subjective polls suck and why a comprehensive (ie – NOT RPI) computer poll is the best way to insulate from human stupidity.

How does UCLA lose ONE GAME – on the road at a Top 25 school – and drop to 4th in this week’s poll? It’s ridiculous.

This isn’t football. It should matter a lot less “WHEN” a team lost. The Bruins have won SIX games against teams ranked in the Top 50 (if you use Sagarin Ratings for your barometer) while playing one of the toughest overall schedules in the country. How do they fall behind teams that also have lost one game while playing weaker schedules and defeating less good teams?

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General NCS Basketball

24 Responses to How is UCLA Fourth?

  1. kool k 01/09/2007 at 7:55 AM #

    Have they put up a banner in Chapel Hill for being #1 on January 8?

  2. BoKnowsNCS71 01/09/2007 at 8:18 AM #

    Why not Clemson as # 1 the last undefeated team (until tonight). lol

  3. BoKnowsNCS71 01/09/2007 at 8:33 AM #

    “UCLA had forfeits” — Woody Durham.

  4. Dan 01/09/2007 at 8:37 AM #

    Polls are wrong WAY more than they are right, and they will continue to be wrong. It just sucks that they have one iota of influence over the season. Who knows if UCLA is te fourth best team in the country? It doesnt matter. What matters is who wins the games that occur on hardwood. Not the games that occur on paper and in the minds of idiot pollsters.

  5. redfred2 01/09/2007 at 8:47 AM #

    “I don’t think you should ever have coaches’ total records” – Dean Smith

  6. VaWolf82 01/09/2007 at 8:56 AM #

    It just sucks that they have one iota of influence over the season.

    How do the polls have any influence over the basketball season?

  7. Trout 01/09/2007 at 9:09 AM #

    Polls have a media influence, but luckily not a “results” influence as in football.

    Clemson is underated, IMO. They are playing like a Top 10 team. They are better than Duke. I like NC State’s chances of beating Duke more than I do us beating Clemson. Honest.

  8. Dan 01/09/2007 at 9:36 AM #

    “How do the polls have any influence over the basketball season?”

    Rankings effect seedings. Rankings affect the committee’s perception of quality wins. Those quality wins in turn affect which bubble teams get in and which do not.

    They try to limit its influence by using the RPI, but the selection committee does not overlook rankings completely. And the selection committee is hardly anything but another group of pollsters creating a 33 team at large poll. It has an iota of influence. I’m not saying its football, but the influence is there.

    Once upon a time when only conference champs moved on, the sport was pure. But the NCAA’s greed has muddied the water. But at least the pool is big enough to ensure the best teams have a shot to make their case objectively. That’s way better than football.

  9. nycfan 01/09/2007 at 10:21 AM #

    I don’t think that greed was responsible for moving away from the conference champion only championship — it was more a sense of injustice that the 2nd or 3rd best team in the country would have to sit at home if it happened to play in the same league as another top 5 team, while a much weaker team from a weak conference would get a bid. Expansion to 64 and perhaps even further may have a greed component, but I love the 64 team field, so I’m not complaining. I guess I don’t see the purity of a conference champion only going b/c it makes the regular season essentially irrelevant.

    In any event, on topic, I agree that UCLA should not have dropped to 4th. I would have voted them 2nd. I also think that if any other team in the ACC had Clemson’s record against Clemson’s schedule, that team would be top 5, at least, and possibly #1. I guarantee that UNC, Dook, Maryland and Georgia Tech would be #1 with that schedule and an undefeated record. Maybe VPI would not be in the top 10 with the same results.

  10. Woof Wolf 01/09/2007 at 10:22 AM #

    Nothing speaks louder to the validity of polls than last night’s 41 – 14 total destruction of THE NUMBER ONE UNIVERSITY by a team that almost half of the pollsters didn’t think deserved to be number two.

  11. VaWolf82 01/09/2007 at 10:43 AM #

    Rankings effect seedings. Rankings affect the committee’s perception of quality wins.

    I know of no evidence to support this….and can think of several examples that show this is not the case. For example, George Washingtion was highly rated by the pollsters all of last year, but got a terrible (8?) seed in the NCAAT.

  12. tooyoungtoremember 01/09/2007 at 11:10 AM #

    There are exceptions to every rule, but in general, I’d have to agree with Dan. I’d be willing to bet a large sum of money that the tournament selection committees look at rankings and quality wins against ranked teams when deciding the seedings. The people who sit on these committees aren’t sequestered from the media all year long and it’s only human that their opinions of certain teams is swayed by the media and the polls. Wouldn’t it be nice to totally take the human element out of the selection process and use a preset computer formula?

  13. Dan 01/09/2007 at 11:30 AM #

    You are looking for evidence in the GW’s, and not looking at the top overall seed every year which is predominantly the #1 ranked team in the nation and not the #1 RPI team.

    I admit its not a major influence, but it does cast its shadow. We’d be better off without rankings at all. Maybe then journalists would write about the actual games instead of spending all their time speculating.

  14. VaWolf82 01/09/2007 at 11:38 AM #

    There are exceptions to every rule, but in general, I’d have to agree with Dan.

    Then I’m sure that you won’t mind giving some examples.

    The polls only list 25 teams. The large majority of the teams rated highly by the polls are also rated highly by the RPI….and are also really good teams. The exceptions are the Gonzagas and George Washingtons…..which are not seeded as highly as the voting polls would leave you to believe. Thus the claim that voting polls unduly (or incorrectly) influence NCAAT seeding is without merit….unless you can provide some examples.

    “Over-rated” basketball teams are uncovered during the course of the season and have little effect come the NCAAT. Many are uncovered by losses on the court and others are uncovered by the RPI with its Strength of Schedule component.

    UCLA and Clemson will suffer no short or long term “disadvantages” based on this week’s poll.

  15. VaWolf82 01/09/2007 at 11:40 AM #

    Wouldn’t it be nice to totally take the human element out of the selection process and use a preset computer formula?

    What computer are you going to use to develop this preset computer formula?

    You simply can not remove the “human element”. With the 65 team field, any mistakes are made at the level where they do not have significant influence on the eventual winners.

  16. Girlfriend in a Coma 01/09/2007 at 11:47 AM #

    [i]

    What computer are you going to use to develop this preset computer formula?

    [/i]

    Skynet. When it becomes self-aware we are in trouble, though.

  17. VaWolf82 01/09/2007 at 11:51 AM #

    You are looking for evidence in the GW’s, and not looking at the top overall seed every year which is predominantly the #1 ranked team in the nation and not the #1 RPI team.

    Yes I have. There is a very good correlation between RPI ranking and the top six seeds. See this entry from last season (You may have to copy and paste….long URLs don’t always translate correctly):

    http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2006/01/31/rpi-and-ncaa-seeds/

    The only time the #1 RPI team didn’t get a #1 seed was a Kansas team that ended the year on a 3-5 streak with several bad losses over that stretch.

  18. packbackr04 01/09/2007 at 12:25 PM #

    is the game on tv tonight, as usual there is nothing about it in my local paper (Sun JOurnal). and when i search google for “nc state mens basketball 2007 tv schedule”… i get unc, ecu, boston college, georgia tech, and clemson as hits, but no nc state. are we the worst publicised school in the ncaa??

  19. thebigwood 01/09/2007 at 12:49 PM #

    packbackr04, it is on Fox Sports South in Columbia, SC. But that probably has to do more with Clemson

  20. JimValvano 01/09/2007 at 12:57 PM #

    I think the Tarholes are the #1 team in the country. I also have watched ACC Basketball long enough to know that Clemson starts off every season with a good record. I’ll believe Clemson is a top ten team when:
    A. They beat the Tarholes in the Dean Dome
    B. They make free throws
    C. Rick Barnes is rehired as Head Coach
    D. Elden Campbell and Dale Davis re-enroll
    E. Pigs fly
    Furthermore, back on the UCLA debate…they aren’t the defending national champions and Wisconsin is pretty darn good. I don’t disagree with the polls at all as far as UCLA or Clemson go…maybe on the Dookies…they aren’t that good.
    As far as football goes…everyone should’ve seen the upset coming last night. I know I did. The Big Ten is really the Overinflated and Overrated Ten. Any conference that has three teams with one loss or less is obviously a little weak. Meanwhile Florida is coming off the toughest schedule in the country. I still say that Florida should have to play Boise State though.

  21. JimValvano 01/09/2007 at 12:58 PM #

    Oh…and for the record…I think polls do influence the selection committee.

  22. JimValvano 01/09/2007 at 1:13 PM #

    What is that old saying…”The cream always rises to the top”??? If that’s true…then don’t worry about UCLA being ranked 4th if they’re the best team. If they are as good as you think or if Clemson is as good as some think…then…the NCAA tournament will give them both a chance to prove just that.

  23. Heels Perspective 01/09/2007 at 5:08 PM #

    Was this post REALLY about UCLA???

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