NCS ACCT Seeds in Sendek Era

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day20

ACCT Seeds

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

20 Responses to NCS ACCT Seeds in Sendek Era

  1. lumberpack 03/04/2006 at 8:25 PM #

    Whew, smells through the internet

  2. WufPacker 03/05/2006 at 6:09 AM #

    So, one could argue, if one chose to do so, that BASED ON REGULAR SEASON ACC FINISHES ALONE and thus seeding for the ACCT, this year’s 4th place seed, being the same as 2002 and 2003 (years when many sss’ers point to as Herb having turned the corner due to NCAA tourney appearances) shows merely that the program is mired in 4th place and NOT making significant progress.

    This become especially visible when you also either toss out ’04 (2nd seed) and ’05 (7th seed) as outliers OR if you decide to take the average of the two, 4.5.

    Basically, the program has averaged (much like the football team, but I digress) a seed of 4.1 over the past 5 years (the Herbie glory years) with a high of 2nd in year 8 of Sendek (not too bad) and a low of 7th in year 9 (pretty shameful).

    Yeah, the progress of the program is astounding 😉

  3. lumberpack 03/05/2006 at 11:53 AM #

    Looks like a program on life support

  4. class of '74 03/06/2006 at 7:55 AM #

    When referring to progress and our program you must mean progress of most of the other ACC programs in relation to our’s. We have nothing to be proud of recently except our improved facilities.

  5. Mr O 03/07/2006 at 11:05 AM #

    Wake, Maryland and GT have all gone backwards in recent years. We have moved up relative to those programs. Duke and UNC are on top.

    What was Jim Valvano’s average seed in the ACC tournament?

  6. class of '74 03/07/2006 at 12:32 PM #

    ^Going backwards? WF top 5 in nation most of last year. Maryland NCAA champion 2002. GT final four runner-up 2004. We should go backwards with these kind of recent results!

    If you want to talk about going backwards project our situation in basketball for next year! No guards = little hope for next year.

  7. Jeff 03/07/2006 at 2:24 PM #

    I respectfully disagree with Mr. O’s process of using this single year as a proxy to say that Wake, Maryland, & GT have all gone “backwards”…they’ve all gone “backwards” from peaks much higher than anything we’ve ever achieved — in the last 5 years these 3 schools have aggregately won – 3 Final Fours, 1 ACC Title, 3 ACC Regular Season Titles, and 2 National Title game appearances.

    If you think of program’s from the basis of “moving averages” and not “single spot seasons” (as I do), Wake & Maryland’s last 5 years blow ours away to the point where it is hard for me to understand the perspective that they have taken such large steps backwards. I thought that Herb (and Squad) preach taking a “Wholistic approach” to all of this. How is focusing on such a small sample size in these conversations “wholistic”?

    What was JimValvano’s average ACC seed?

    Jim Valvano’s 10-year average seed was #4.4 compared to Sendek’s #5.5

    Jim Valvano’s best 5 seeds averaged #2.8 compared to Sendek’s #3.8 (and V’s seeds were signficantly impacted by a season that he tied for #1 in the ACC and got the #3 seed).

    Jim Valvano’s 5 best consecutive seeds averaged #3.2 compared to Sendek’s #4.2

    I must tell you…I am SO HAPPY that Herb has now been here the exact number of years as Valvano so that none of the crazy’s can baseless proclaim how much better things are going to get in the future to impact Herb’s (lack of comparison) to V.

    By the way…more of ^this type of analysis is on the way this week.

  8. class of '74 03/07/2006 at 2:43 PM #

    ^ I think you meant to say “aggregately won 3 games in the Final Four”.

  9. Trout 03/07/2006 at 3:29 PM #

    I agree with Jeff on MD, but have a tougher time with Wake. Looking at the past 5 years, Wake’s zenith year was a 13-3 ACC finish, meaning Herb’s zenith is a full 2 games below that (11-5). On the other hand, Wake has a 3-13 finish, whereas Herb would be a full 4 games from that (7-9). The theory of the “I’ll take some highs for some lows,” IMO, does not hold for me with Wake Forest. Yes, they won a regular season ACC, but they also have a DEAD last finish as well. And before you mention the obligatory “yeah, but he beat Herb” – so what. Herb beat UNC the year they were #1. Beat Wake when they were Top 5 with Duncan. Those games happen (not an excuse for the way NC State played on Sat, it was very bad – just a general comment on waeker teams beating better teams).

    And while no one with any sanity can argue that Herb hasnt underachieved this year, and other years, I’m sorry, I just dont see any coach underachieving as much as Prosser over the last 2 years. He had Chris Paul, Eric Williams, Justin Gray, et al last year and didnt win the ACC, didnt even make the ACCT semifinals, and didnt make the NCAA Sweet 16. This year, with at least 2 players that would START on ANY of the ACC teams, a dead last ACC finish. And what happens after he loses Gray and Williams and Strickland.

    I think Wake has gone backwards, and wont go forwards for at least 2 years.

  10. Jeff 03/07/2006 at 4:34 PM #

    Aggregately, Maryland x2 and GT x1 have attended three Final Fours in recent years.

    Trout,

    Herb deserves credit for beating Wake and Carolina almost a decade ago. But, unfortunately, we aren’t supposed to count anything that Herb did before 2001-2002.

    Additionally, he won those games without “his players” and before he built “his program” (isn’t that what we always are reminded whenever we wholistically look at his performance in those years?) 🙂

  11. Jeff 03/07/2006 at 4:40 PM #

    I just dont see any coach underachieving as much as Prosser over the last 2 years.

    I would totally agree if you had propsed that Prosser has “underachieved” in Tournaments since his arrival at Wake. But, IMHO, it is more than a “stretch” to claim that he underachieved “last year”.

    The Demon Deacons finished 27-6 overall and 13-3 in the ACC last year.

    They posted more wins than any team in Wake Forest history and finished 2nd in the ACC (with a 13-3 record) by tying the school record for league victories.

    The 27 overall wins gave coach Skip Prosser his personal best season.

    On Nov. 22, Wake Forest rose to No. 1 in the national polls for the first time in school history. The Deacons remained at No. 1 for two weeks.

    The Deacons were ranked from start to finish in the top 10. In fact, Wake never dropped lower than seventh in the national polls.

    Wake Forest went 6-3 against teams ranked in the top 25.

    So, basically, Wake Forest had the greatest basketball regular season that the school had ever achieved and we call it “underachieving”?

    Where do I sign up for that kind of horrible performance?

  12. Trout 03/07/2006 at 4:42 PM #

    Like I said, “just a general comment on weaker teams beating better teams.”

  13. Trout 03/07/2006 at 4:47 PM #

    Please. NC State has spent the entire season ranked in the top 25. Has anyone HERE cared about that?

    You are telling me that a Wake team that at one point was #1 in the nation, and won 27 regular season games, didnt even manage to make it out of the 1st round of the ACC Tournament, or the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament?

    And that’s not underachieving?

  14. Trout 03/07/2006 at 4:54 PM #

    You go poll 100 Deacon fans and ask them if Prosser has underachieved the past 2 years, and I bet you get a 80+ response rate on the affirmative.

    Herb finished 2004 with 11 ACC victories, but flamed out in the ACCT and NCAAT. I dont see much difference between Herb’s 2004 and Prosser’s 2005, except at least Herb made the ACCT semis, and lost to the eventual ACCT champion. Prosser lost to Herb. I do think the ACC was tougher in 2005 than 2004, I’ll give you that.

    But how do you explain this season for Wake. 3-13.

    Over the past 5 seasons, Wake is 47-33 in the ACC. NC State is 46-34.

  15. VaWolf82 03/07/2006 at 5:01 PM #

    NC State has spent the entire season ranked in the top 25. Has anyone HERE cared about that?

    Do you think that I would have bothered plotting State’s RPI twice a week since the middle of Jan because I was waiting for State to tank? How about all of the entries on State’s potential seed? Do you think I was tracking those and hoping that State would collapse like a house of cards?

  16. Trout 03/07/2006 at 5:07 PM #

    Of course not, but at the end of the day, does our ranking in the AP Top 25 really mean anything? I’d rather not get any votes, and make the Final 4, than be ranked in the Top 4, and lose in the 2nd round.

    Obviously, our fans care about the exact same things the Wake fans care about – did you hang a banner, did you do well in the tournaments. Like you have said many times, basketball success is judged by post season results.

    I’ll give Prosser a 1-0 record over Herb in the banner department. But he doesnt get any credit with me because Wake’s past is not as glorious as NC State’s past. Hell, V never had the “greatest basketball regular season that the school had ever achieved” – but he was 10x the coach, IMO, of both Prosser and Herb.

  17. Jeff 03/07/2006 at 5:18 PM #

    You are telling me that a Wake team that at one point was #1 in the nation, and won 27 regular season games, didnt even manage to make it out of the 1st round of the ACC Tournament, or the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament?

    And that’s not underachieving?

    Actually…that IS underachieving. It is underachieving IN THE TOURNAMENT, just as I said in my very first sentence in my post.

    “Please. NC State has spent the entire season ranked in the top 25. Has anyone HERE cared about that?”

    Because people here are smart enough to understand the reality behind the situation.

    Let’s see—

    Wake Forest finished last year rated #7 in the RPI. NC State is currently #40 in the RPI.

    Wake was 6-3 vs the Top 25 (polls) and State is 2-5 record vs the Top 25 this year.

    Wake was 4-2 vs the RPI’s Top 25 and 6-3 vs the RPI’s Top 50; State is 1-5 vs the RPI’s Top 25 and 4-6 vs the RPI’s Top 50

    You don’t see a HUGE difference between the national recognition of never falling below #7 (being ranked #1 for 2 weeks) and our hovering inside the Top 25 for the year?

    Over the past 5 seasons, Wake is 47-33 in the ACC. NC State is 46-34.

    And Wake’s RPI in those years has been:
    2006: #107 vs #40 (for State)
    2005: #7 vs #65
    2004: #20 vs #16
    2003: #7 vs #53
    2002: #24 vs #37

    And Wake has won an ACC Regular season title. And Wake has won 13 games in the ACC twice. And Wake has spent 2 different years ranked mostly in the Top 10. And Wake is 7-5 against NC State over that time. And Wake’s record vs the Top 25 (polls and RPI) puts ours to shame.

    Is there anybody out there, that would legitimately trade their last 5 years for our last five years based on the actual numbers?

  18. Trout 03/07/2006 at 5:31 PM #

    I wouldnt trade, because of the dead last season (totally inexcusable) and because of the post season results. Call me a V apologist, but his theory was you are judged on the tournament(s), nothing else really matters.

    I guess I get confused about the messages here. Prosser and what he has done is better than Herb because they have had better RPI #s (which havent amounted to jack squat come tournament time), while Hewitt is also better because he had a magical Final 4 run, but has been dominated, mostly, by Herb in the regular season, and I think Tech has finished below NC State all but one of the past 5 seasons as well.

    I’ll stop now because pretty soon I’ll be labeled as past of the Sunshine Squad.

    And again, I’m not trying to make an arguement for Herb Sendek and his tenure at NC State. I just dont see all much going for Skip Prosser vs Herb.

  19. Jeff 03/07/2006 at 7:59 PM #

    ^ I understand your points. I just don’t think that we’ve done anything any more special than Wake in the NCAA tournaments. With that being said, I (personally) would much rather have had the significance of their peak seasons than the mundance mediocrity of basically being #4.

  20. DaveClass '94 03/20/2006 at 12:10 PM #

    I agree that average and top 25 don’t mean anything. ACC tourney champions matters. NCAA final four matters. NCAA champions matter. Beating Carolina matters. The 2006 season successes are all trumped by getting blown out at home by the tarheels. Any Wolfpack coach that wants support better damn well beat the heels or the headhunt will rage on.

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