Stat: Spread Variance - StateFans Nation StateFans Nation

NC State entered this year’s basketball game against Seton Hall IN RALEIGH ranked higher than the unranked Pirates and favored by 18 points. The Wolfpack became the first ranked opponent to lose to Seton Hall since the end of 2003-2004 season. NC State lost the home game by 18 points, meaning the Pack missed expectations by 36 points.

NC State entered this year’s basketball game against Carolina IN RALEIGH ranked higher than the Tarheels and favored by 4 points. The Wolfpack lost by 24 points, meaning the Pack missed expectations by 28 points.

Of course…using the term “expecations” around NC State Basketball is more than a little foreign to many Wolfpackers, including the administration at NC State who cite goals like “be real good”, “be competitive”, and “be in the top 15 without being able to beat the top programs”.

I don’t mind losing some close games every now and then. (Certainly not to the tune of 17 of the last 23 in the last 4 and half “great seasons”, but it is inexcusable for a team with three talented seniors, a future NBA post player, and strong complimentary parts to be beaten by ANYONE like this AT HOME.

Wait til next year!!! (When there is no way Herb will risk a home loss against anyone that he can control and we won’t see a team with an RPI better than 150 sniff the arena). Nothing like having bought Lifetime Rights…

9 Responses to Stat: Spread Variance

Chris 02/24/2006 at 10:47 AM #

Agreed. Teams supposedly as good as us just don’t get beat that bad at home. We weren’t even close in either of those. Both games we looked as if we just would have rather been somewhere else. Very disturbing trend since the end of the Duke game. I don’t understand what’s happened to this team. No killer instinct, no hunger, no passion whatsoever.
Fletch 02/24/2006 at 10:56 AM #

I’m very frustrated, and even though this team has 21 wins, I have no confidence in them. The double overtimes and bad losses are coming at a time when this team should be gearing up for the final push to tourney time.
VaWolf82 02/24/2006 at 11:05 AM #

Here’s a disturbing trend:

Date……… UNC……… NC State… Delta
28-Jan-04…68……….. 66………… -2
29-Feb-04…71………..64………….-7

3-Feb-05…..95………..71…………-24
22-Feb-05…81………..71…………-10

7-Jan-06…..82…………69…………-13
22-Feb-06…95…………71…………-24

The average margin of defeat vs Roy is steadily climbing. There is probably not a lot of deep significance to that, but it certainly flies in the face of those who continue to claim that State is competitive with UNC. (Though I haven’t seen anyone with enough nerve to claim that since Wed. night.)

A more disturbing trend is the lack of “quality” wins this season. You get to choose among these games as State’s best victory of the year so far:
George Washington
Boston College
Alabama
Maryland

Add to that the end of game collapses against Duke, UNC (in CH), Miami, and VT…and the overall picture is not good.
Jeff 02/24/2006 at 11:36 AM #

Fletch…some of these numbers explain WHY you have no confidence in the team.

It is nothing to be ashamed of. It makes pretty good sense, actually.
class of '74 02/24/2006 at 12:02 PM #

This just can’t be! Herb has had to overcome so much. Look at the mess V and Les left him to cleanup. And he’s done it all in just under a decade. You just wait till next year by gosh he’ll show all of you!
Fish 02/24/2006 at 1:20 PM #

Agreed. I have said it all year long–This team is not good, average masked by an abundance of teams that a program with NCSU’s tradition should beat.

At least last year the team was slowly getting better (do not get me wrong they should have started the season as they finished and continued to get better). This year this team is getting worse and the HSS club better get ready to do spring cleaning and yard chores after the first game on either Thursday or Friday (if we make it).
VaWolf82 02/24/2006 at 3:09 PM #

This year this team is getting worse

Or have the other teams found out how to play State?
WhitCanCoach 02/24/2006 at 3:59 PM #

Or have we started to play more good teams as opposed to the cupcakes of the early season
class of '74 02/25/2006 at 10:00 AM #

Our weak OOC schedule provides cover for a timid program of lightweights. I just love these clowns that crow about the fastest we’ve reached 20 wins since the beginning of time or whatever. Gosh, who the heck should we not have beaten on this years schedule? Couple that with a weaker than normal ACC and you get a record like ours. Frankly the season should have an asterik beside the record something like: 21-6*acheived by playing weak teams!