RPI Update

General NCS Basketball16

Going 0-2 last week, dropped State to #34 in the RPI. This position is still pretty solid ground with respect to making the NCAAT, but is certainly moving in the wrong direction. It would probably be too strong to claim that State has to win at WF or on Friday in the ACCT, but I wouldn’t want to go into Selection Sunday riding a four-game losing streak.

DBR’s take on State:

The next question is whether N.C. State will continue to spiral down the standings with their trip to Wake Forest coming up: They could fall behind B.C., who beat them in double OT in Raleigh Saturday. They’re still in, or should be anyway, but what has happened to this team? They looked great early, but lately, they’re just mediocre.

State now stands at 3-5 versus the RPI Top-50. State will probably have to win the ACCT to keep Herb from having another losing record against the RPI Top-50.

SEASON
SUMMARY

21-7 (10-5)

 

WINS

LOSSES

 

Top

 

 

1

Duke

 

25

 

 

13

UNC (twice)

 

 

 

 

14

Iowa

 

26-

29

G.  Washington

35

Boston College

 

50

35

Boston College

 

 

 

 

36

Alabama

 

 

 

51-

6-1

(Maryland
# 51)

60

Seton Hall

 

100

 

 

 

 

 101-

3-1

 

139

Georgia Tech

200

 

 

 

 

201+

8-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE RACE FOR SECOND

NC State

UNC

BC

(10-5)

(10-4)

(9-5)

——

UVa (H)

WF (H)

WF (A)

Duke (A)

VT (H)

Baring a huge upset this week, the regular season will end in a three-way tie for second. Here are the words of wisdom from Page 10 of the ACC Weekly Media Guide concerning a tie between three or more teams:

a) The combined record of conference games between the tied teams involved will be compiled. Ties will be broken, and seedings assigned, based on the winning percentage of the combined conference records. The higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4).

b) If procedure (a) fails to break the tie, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage by a higher winning percentage.

c) If the tie is broken by (a) or (b) regarding one or more teams, but three or more teams remain tied, the procedures (a) and (b) will be re-applied among those tied teams only.

d) If two teams remain tied, procedures (1) and (2) will be followed.

Procedure (1) is a comparison of the head-to-head records.

So if I have parsed this “explanation” correctly, then UNC, State, and BC will start by comparing their records against each other:
– UNC is 2-1, State is 1-3, and BC is 2-1. Thus State will get the fourth seed.
– BC beat UNC and would earn the second seed.
– That leaves UNC with the third seed.
– Anyone agree or disagree?

CONFERENCE UPDATE

HISTORICAL
BUBBLE TRENDS

 

 

ACC

NCAAT

RPI

TEAM

Record

Status

1

Duke

14-0

 

13

North Carolina

10-4

IN

34

NC State

10-5

35

Boston College

9-5

 

51

Maryland

6-8

 

65

Florida State

7-7

 

68

Virginia

7-7

Bubble

72

Miami

7-7

 

73

Clemson

5-9

 

113

Wake Forest

2-12

 

116

Virginia Tech

4-10

OUT

139

Georgia Tech

4-10

 

Back when we first start discussing the ACC bubble teams, there were always two scenarios that were most likely: (1) Someone would rise above the pretenders, or (2) they would take turns beating up on each other and everyone would slide into the NIT. While it may be too early to proclaim that everyone’s hopes have died….they are certainly on life-support.

UMD, FSU, and UVa all lost over the weekend and UM was idle…thus no one made any positive moves.

Miami plays at Maryland on Wed. At 6-8, you have to think that Maryland doesn’t have any mulligans left to use.

FSU has Duke at home on Wed and UVa plays at Chapel Hill…which means that both teams will likely fall to 7-8. However, an upset would certainly do wonders for their resume on Selection Sunday.

Miami may be in the best shape with MD on the road and FSU at home….neither easy, but both winnable.

The real question is how much will it take to clear the bubble?
– 9-7 with a win on Thursday in the ACCT and you would feel pretty good.
– 8-8 with a win on Friday in the ACCT and you would feel pretty good.
– Anything less might still be “good enough”, but probably not comfortable.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball

16 Responses to RPI Update

  1. WTNY 02/27/2006 at 8:49 AM #

    *Baring a huge upset this week*

    I would not be surprised at all with a loss at Wake. Yes, it would be a “huge upset” from a standings perspective but I don’t think most folks would think so after some thought. Wake is probably the most talented last place team in recent ACC history.

  2. WTNY 02/27/2006 at 8:50 AM #

    And thanks for the RPI update.

    However, my heart just isn’t into digesting that info. *Sigh*

  3. WTNY 02/27/2006 at 9:06 AM #

    Regarding the ACC Tourney, as the 4 seed, State would play the winner of the 5/12 game Fri @ 2pm.

    Wake will most likely be the 12 but the 5 seed is up for grabs (as you note) with Miami being the most likely survivor.

  4. BJD95 02/27/2006 at 9:19 AM #

    My reading of the ACC tiebreaker is the same as VaWolf’s. Basically, we want BC to win out so there’s no chance of playing UNC in the ACCT semis (either UNC will lose twice, and State and BC will be in the same bracket, or we end up 4th and in Duke’s bracket). We match up better with Duke, and regardless of matchup, I just can’t take losing to UNC again this year.

    Those RPIs are bad for ACC bubble teams (except for Maryland, which has been playing by far the worst basketball of the lot). Unless FSU beats Duke (and hands the COY trophy to Roy), I don’t see anybody else doing enough to get a bid.

    Does anybody else get the distinct feeling that Wake will beat whoever the 5 seed is in the opening round? Maybe not if its FSU, but against anybody else…

  5. WTNY 02/27/2006 at 9:24 AM #

    BJD95:

    I am really hoping UVa pulls the upset this week and Duke takes care of business. That way Duke is the 1 Seed and UNC-Ch the 4. I really hate ACC tourneys where it’s Duke/Carolina in the finals.

    And yes, I believe Wake will win the 5/12 game and then probably beat the Pack in the quarters …

  6. Mr O 02/27/2006 at 9:34 AM #

    I would much rather play UNC in the semis than Duke. Duke is a better team than UNC, so I can’t agree with the BJD95’s assessment that we matchup better with Duke.

  7. class of '74 02/27/2006 at 9:59 AM #

    Frankly I don’t understand fearing any of them. Do I think we will beat Duke or UNC, well no, unless there is some devine intervention. I’m not so sure we will beat BC, Miami, UVA or GT either. After the BC game the team looked worn out and really down so who knows. Bring on whomever and let’s see what happens.

  8. VaWolf82 02/27/2006 at 10:01 AM #

    Experience shows that State doesn’t match up well against Duke or UNC…so I can’t get too excited about discussing which team would be “better” to play.

    Both FSU and UVa really blew a golden opportunity on Sat. to get credit for a road victory against “weak” opponents. With a win, both teams would probably be in the 50’s….greatly increasing their chances for an at-large bid. Now they both have another “wart” on their resume.

  9. RickJ 02/27/2006 at 10:20 AM #

    Florida has really taken a nose dive similar to ours. 3 straight losses has them at 33 in the RPI. I believe they were in the top 10 at some point. If they somehow lost at home this week to Georgia, they could actually get on the bubble. We had two golden opportunities this year to make a push for the top 10; this past week and week we lost to Seton Hall.

  10. BJD95 02/27/2006 at 10:40 AM #

    Seton Hall is cratering, too. Which has a secondary effect on us.

  11. BJD95 02/27/2006 at 10:46 AM #

    FWIW, I think that is we played Duke 10 times on a neutral floor, we’d win twice. They have weaknesses we can exploit, as we showed in Cameron earlier this year. We’d be lucky to beat UNC even once. At this point, I think it’s become a psychological thing.

    But the thought of getting blitzed by UNC again is too much to bear. Plus, they don’t match up well with BC, so I don’t think they automatically get to the finals in that scenario. So, if you want to come up with even a longshot scenario to win the ACC title without having to beat BOTH Duke and UNC – there you go.

  12. VaWolf82 02/27/2006 at 11:37 AM #

    BJD’s discussion reminds me of 1982 when UNC had Perkins, Worthy, and Jordan….and UVa had Sampson, Lamp, and Raker. The speed and athleticism of UNC was just more than State could overcome….while we could at least compete with UVa.

  13. Rick 02/27/2006 at 11:47 AM #

    I do not see us getting past that semifinal game no matter who we play.

  14. Jim 02/27/2006 at 12:31 PM #

    As I’ve said before I would rather shoot myself in the balls with a nail gun than watch us play UNC-CH in the semis. I stand by that statement.

    The upside of playing either Duke or UNC is that both would put us away long before the final few possessions. So that would spare us fans the Syssifus-like chore of watching us come out of time outs late in the game in key possessions only to not get a shot off. Over and over and over.

  15. MurphNCSU 02/27/2006 at 7:14 PM #

    I am about to have an aneurism having to hear over and over about the mythically awesome mid-major power of the MVC. As it stands now the national talking heads have as many/ more teams from the MVC getting into the tournament than the ACC. Can someone explain to me how THOSE teams beating up on each other some how more impressive than when the ACC teams in the middle do it? It’s truly a sad day for the ACC if we get fewer bids than the MVC and truly an indicator of how proud of our 2nd (wait, 3rd, no 4th) finish in the ACC we should actually be.

  16. UNC1 02/28/2006 at 12:27 AM #

    I wouldn’t call a UNC win in Cameron a HUGE upset. Unexpected perhaps, but UNC has been exceeding expectations all year. Besides, Duke is due.

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