I hadn’t planned on summarizing the compiled rankings this week because of the two high-profile games that State has. Obviously, the games this week will have a huge effect on both objective and subjective rankings. Plus I didn’t really expect two wins against FSU and VT to have much of an effect.
However, when you let the data determine the conclusions (instead of the other way around), occasionally you are suprised by what you find. Such is the case this week, so I thought I would share the results with anyone who might be interested.
I threw in George Washington this week, along with BC and UNC. I wouldn’t normally care about GW one way or another but they are an interesting study this year…and I got to see them play in Raleigh. They have a tremendous record and are frequently winning by really impressive scores….but they have one of the easiest schedules you will ever see a Top-20 team play. It will be interesting to see where GW is seeded and to see which ranking system came closest to the “right” answer.
For anyone who missed out on the earlier entries, every week, Massey’s compiles the various rankings through Sunday’s games, averages the results, and comes up with a combined ranking. As of today, they have 30 rankings up…and will probably add several more this week. For those that like frequency distributions, click here.
For those who prefer tables, here is one that summarizes how many rankings predicted a given seed. I only included percentages for those seeds that had three (10%) or more “predictions”. I highlighted the range of percentages that would total about 70%. If there is any value at all in using the compiled rankings to predict seeding, then you would have to assume that the real answer is probably somewhere in the “redâ€?.
|
SEED |
GW |
NCSU |
UNC |
BC |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
43% |
|
|
|
|
3 |
10% |
53% |
10% |
|
|
4 |
17% |
23% |
27% |
20% |
|
5 |
|
13% |
40% |
33% |
|
6 |
|
|
13% |
17% |
|
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
10% |
State got quite a nice boost after beating FSU and VT last week…much more than I would ever thought. While this week will mean a lot more than last week, I wanted to point out the possibility of having a three-seed wrapped up before the ACC Tournament starts. (Assuming of course that the NCAA Selection Committee is as smart as we are.) 😉
