Compiled Rankings

I hadn’t planned on summarizing the compiled rankings this week because of the two high-profile games that State has. Obviously, the games this week will have a huge effect on both objective and subjective rankings. Plus I didn’t really expect two wins against FSU and VT to have much of an effect.

However, when you let the data determine the conclusions (instead of the other way around), occasionally you are suprised by what you find. Such is the case this week, so I thought I would share the results with anyone who might be interested.

I threw in George Washington this week, along with BC and UNC. I wouldn’t normally care about GW one way or another but they are an interesting study this year…and I got to see them play in Raleigh. They have a tremendous record and are frequently winning by really impressive scores….but they have one of the easiest schedules you will ever see a Top-20 team play. It will be interesting to see where GW is seeded and to see which ranking system came closest to the “right” answer.

For anyone who missed out on the earlier entries, every week, Massey’s compiles the various rankings through Sunday’s games, averages the results, and comes up with a combined ranking. As of today, they have 30 rankings up…and will probably add several more this week. For those that like frequency distributions, click here.

For those who prefer tables, here is one that summarizes how many rankings predicted a given seed. I only included percentages for those seeds that had three (10%) or more “predictions”. I highlighted the range of percentages that would total about 70%. If there is any value at all in using the compiled rankings to predict seeding, then you would have to assume that the real answer is probably somewhere in the “redâ€?.














































State got quite a nice boost after beating FSU and VT last week…much more than I would ever thought. While this week will mean a lot more than last week, I wanted to point out the possibility of having a three-seed wrapped up before the ACC Tournament starts. (Assuming of course that the NCAA Selection Committee is as smart as we are.) 😉

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball

16 Responses to Compiled Rankings

  1. goWoofPack 02/21/2006 at 9:11 PM #

    Lol, great post! I really like the tables you’ve compiled. My prediction: Split against UNC and BC, don’t lose again until the final 4 😉 Go Pack!

  2. choppack 02/21/2006 at 10:07 PM #

    Good stuff VaWolf – We can solidify our chances at a 3 seed by winning both games this week. If we do that – I think you can start putting %s by the 2 seed.

  3. JSIMON 02/21/2006 at 10:19 PM #

    I think the losses of some of the nation’s other top teams last weekend affected where we are currently being projected too. West Virginia’s recent slide has a pretty big impact on where we’re being “seeded” at this point too. Then, there’s the Big 10 beating up on each other and the losses by both UT and Florida. All that has some impact on us. That said — as you pointed — our biggest chance for nailing a three seed would be to win both games this week.

    It’s really hard to imaging GW getting a No. 2 seed even if they win out. I wonder how far they’d drop if they fell in the A-10 Tournament? Teams will be dying to be in the bracket where they’re a three seed. I remember Karl Hobbs saying his team wasn’t a top 15 team when they played here. I wonder if he’s singing the same song now that they’re fighting for seeding?

    As for our seeding and the possibility of playing in Greensboro, I wonder if it would be better for the team to go somewhere else and play? Honestly, no distractions form being so close to home and not playing in the shadow of Duke. Believe me, we’d get more national attention if we weren’t sharing the arena with the Blue Devils.

  4. class of '74 02/22/2006 at 6:47 AM #

    Our matchup is more important than the seed. Looking around the country you’d have to think there will be a lot of “upsets” in all of the brackets. There just aren’t any juggernauts out there but there are a lot of very good teams. Therefore whether we are a three, a four or a five probably won’t matter in the long run. There aren’t any easy paths anymore.

  5. Trout 02/22/2006 at 7:41 AM #

    Sort of different, but is UVA squarely back in contention for a NCAAT bid? Outside of Duke, State, UNC and BC, they have the best shot of finishing .500 or better in the ACC.

  6. ncsu1999 02/22/2006 at 8:41 AM #

    A “sad” perspective on the game tonight (courtesy of the guys @850) – “As a side note, this is just the third time in the last 31 years that NC State is the higher ranked team going into the matchup. The second time was 46 days ago when the teams played in Chapel Hill. ” How sad is that as wolfpack fans and Alumni?

  7. cfpack03 02/22/2006 at 9:11 AM #

    sad? I don’t see it as sad. I see it as an opening, an opportunity. We need to beat these f’ing heels and prove what we’re worth. Then maybe it won’t be so uncommon.
    What matters is today, not the past

  8. Trout 02/22/2006 at 9:58 AM #

    I’m guessing the 3rd was in the 1989 season?

  9. choppack 02/22/2006 at 10:36 AM #

    I think UVa positioned itself squarely on the bubble w/ its win last night. I can see them making some noise. Good guards.

    Another bubble team – AR – had a big win last night as ‘Bama blew an 18 point second half lead.

  10. BJD95 02/22/2006 at 10:40 AM #

    I heard during last night’s broadcast that UVA is the WORST shooting team in the conference. Yet, based on rebounding, toughness, effort, and sheer force of will, they are solidly #5 in the league at 7-6. It really puts in perspective what a great job Leitao has done. And it hasn’t just been beating up on weaklings – against the conference’s “good” teams, they are 2-2 (wins against BC and UNC, close loss at NC State, blowout loss at Duke).

    I still think they need 9-7 and 1 ACCT win to be seriously considered for a dance invite.

  11. RickJ 02/22/2006 at 11:16 AM #

    UVA has one killer loss to Fordham at home. I’m sure this game is really hurting their RPI of 57. Singletary was not able to play against Fordham because of injury, I think. I wonder if the committee might give them some slack for this early loss since Singletary was out. Their remaining schedule is at Clemson, at UNC – Chapel Hill and Maryland at home. I agree with BJD95 – they are probably going to need 2 out of these 3 and 1 in the tourney and they just might make it. This would be a heck of an achievement.

  12. David Stern 02/22/2006 at 12:42 PM #

    Mr. Stern, the truth is that we don’t suffer idiots around here.

  13. VaWolf82 02/22/2006 at 1:17 PM #

    I still think they need 9-7 and 1 ACCT win to be seriously considered for a dance invite.

    I think that this applies to UMD and FSU as well. Obviously, the minimum acceptable will be determined by what the other bubble teams do.

  14. Waxhaw 02/22/2006 at 1:23 PM #

    I think the ACC gets 5 bids. (4 locks and definitely not more than 6).

    One of those bubble teams will likely differentiate itself.

    It helps that the A-10 is likely getting 1 bid. The PAC 10 is abysmal. The Big 10 and Big East can only get so many bids. Some of their bubble teams are going to knock each other out of the running.

  15. Trout 02/22/2006 at 2:03 PM #

    Either MD or FSU will join UVA with 7 ACC wins after tonite.

    UVA (7-6): @ Clemson, @UNC, Maryland
    MD: (6-6): @FSU, @UNC, Miami, @UVA
    FSU: (6-6): MD, @VT, Duke, @Miami

    The loser of FSU/MD, I think, will not make it to 8-8.

  16. VaWolf82 02/25/2006 at 11:57 PM #

    General Note:

    I don’t mind carrying on adult conversations with fans from other schools. However, infantile BS will be deleted.

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