If you want more current commentary about NC State Basketball and the Pack’s game against Carolina, then please click here. The following are the two primary keys that I will be watching today to give me indication if the Pack is on the way to a win or a loss in Chapel Hill:
(1) Officiating / Foul trouble — specifically down low in the Cedric Simmons vs Tyler Hansbrough match-up.
Although State has built our top ranked national defense on the backs of a weak OOC schedule, we are legitimately a very good on the defensive team. Additionally, the Pack has solid and versatile depth to match up with the Heels on every spot on the floor, except maybe David Noel.
I’ll give the Heels Noel. Let’s just assume the senior has a solid to good game because we don’t necessarily match up with him. I don’t think that David Noel, alone, is good enough to beat a well-balanced effort by the Wolfpack. However, I do think that Noel coupled with a big performance by Tyler Hansbrough is enough.
Many fans have failed to recognize how bad of a shooting team that Carolina is this season (outside of the Kentucky game). For the year, the Tarheels are shooting 32.3% from the 3-point line (vs State’s 37.7%) and a paltry 65.7% from the free-throw line (vs State’s 73.3%).
But, Carolina and State are both shooting 48% overall from the field because of State’s volume of the 3-point attempts and the offensive proficiency of Tyler Hansbrough, who is second in the ACC in field goal percentage at 63.2 percent.
As I mentioned in my Miami comments — Cedric Simmons’ availability and presence on the floor makes NC State is a significantly better team on both sides of the court.
Therefore, if the officials decide to ruin this match-up early and call bullshit fouls on Simmons…then the Heels can win based on the offensive ability of Hansbrough and Noel. But, if the Pack protects Simmons and gets a well officiated game, I would be surprised if our balance and strong free throw shooting didn’t put us over the top by the end.
(2) 35% (or better) 3 Point Shooting
State’s offense still relies a little too heavily on three point shooting. IMHO, if the Pack could magically replace our 5 to 7 worst three point attempts with feeds to Simmons, Brackman, or Evtimov in the post then this team could be one of the five best in the country.
As stated above, our defense and other components of play are good enough to position us to win today as long as we shoot “average” or better from the 3 point line. But, a signficantly poor shooting day from the arc (below 30%) could quickly spell doom for the Pack if it is coupled by a 50% shooting day or better by the Heels.
Prediction
In the only place that “favorites” count – Las Vegas – the Wolfpack is generally a 2 to 3 point underdog today.
If my “keys to the game” fall in the Wolfpack’s favor — I’m predicting the Pack by a 76-71 score.
If my keys to the game fall to the Tarheels — I’m going with 77-69 for the Heels.
