STATEistically Notables

Saturday’s victory over Wake moves Herb Sendek a little closer to a .500 record against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. For his career at State, Sendek is

+ 9-13 overall vs the Demon Deacons

+ 6-13 vs Wake Forest in the regular season.

+ 5-6 vs Skip Prosser

+ 4-6 at home vs Wake Forest

+ 3-4 in the RBC vs Wake Forest

+ 2-3 in the RBC vs Skip Prosser

+ 17-50 overall (25.4%) vs Big Four competition

+ 13-43 in the regular season (23.2) vs Big Four competition

=> State is currently ranked #10 in the country in USA Today’s Sagarin Ratings. I cannot think of a time this late in the season that a Sendek led team has achieved this high of ranking. Nice stuff!

=> State is currently #24 in the RPI, challenging the 2003-2004 season’s performance.

=> State is currently #8 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings

=> Wake Forest fell five spots to #61 in the RPI with the loss.

=> State is currently undefeated at home this year at 12-0, and 91-24 all-time in the RBC Center.

=> Herb Sendek is 42-33 at home in the ACC and 32-19 in the ACC games in the RBC Center (62.7%)

=> Seton Hall, State’s next opponent, is currently ranked #85 in the RPI. Despite the less than stellar ranking, the Pirates should serve to improve the Wolfpack’s out of conference schedule that is currently rated #278 in the country.

=> As of today’s rankings, NC State has only one more game scheduled against a Top 25 RPI opponent over the rest of the season (#25, Boston College). This is very good news for a program that is currently 1-2 vs the teams in the Top 25 this year and 13-58 over the last decade (8-23 the start of the 2001-2002 season).

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

21 Responses to STATEistically Notables

  1. PACDADDY 01/23/2006 at 12:30 AM #

    Thanks Jeff…good stuff…it should be noted that we were 2-10 verse WF in the 6 years prior to his arrival. I think Wake was 1 year removed from final 8 and two straight ACC championships. He had quite a bit of “catching up” to do as your numbers indicated.

    “This is very good news for a program that is currently 1-2 vs the teams in the Top 25 this year and 13-58 over the last decade (8-23 the start of the 2001-2002 season).”

    Thanks for reminding us 😉 of course…it depends on which poll you prefer as to how accurate that fact is…as I pointed out before, according to http://www.teamrankings.com, 37% of our “top 25” games were verse top 5 teams during that period(since 2001-2002) and our record was 13-27…still not good, but quite a difference. This doesn’t include GT, which was ranked 6th during 2003-04(who we swept).

  2. JeremyHyatt 01/23/2006 at 7:56 AM #

    you gus are statistics whores but its cool.

  3. Jeff 01/23/2006 at 8:40 AM #

    I guess if I don’t remind you about the statistics, then they somehow become less relevant or accurate. I’ll keep that in mind.

    At least the thought process is consistent — because we don’t strive to be a Top 5 team, then we certainly don’t expect to ever be able to beat Top 5 teams.

  4. PACDADDY 01/23/2006 at 11:32 AM #

    “I guess if I don’t remind you about the statistics, then they somehow become less relevant or accurate. I’ll keep that in mind.”

    I’m not sure how ACCURATE AND ESPECIALLY RELEVANT using an OLD RPI formula, that doesn’t consider the ENTIRE season, margin of victory and home/away useful. I assume you’re using the same, old, tired, recycled numbers. Maybe I’m wrong.

    “At least the thought process is consistent — because we don’t strive to be a Top 5 team, then we certainly don’t expect to ever be able to beat Top 5 teams.”

  5. PACDADDY 01/23/2006 at 11:40 AM #

    BTW…according to http://www.teamrankings.com…Herb has beaten the same # of Top 5 teams than Arizona and Fla combined the last 4 season(not contounting sweeping #6 GT).

    Guess how many Top 5 teams Texas has beaten in last 4 seasons(excluding this year)?????? Let me put it this way…

    Herb has beaten the same #(3) top 5 teams in the final polls at http://www.teamrankings.com than Texas, Arizona and Fla the last 4 seasons COMBINED…do they not strive to be a Top 5 teams?

  6. db321 01/23/2006 at 8:58 PM #

    Great stats guys. I love seeing everyone put their own spin on numbers.

  7. blpack 01/23/2006 at 9:20 PM #

    I haven’t seen us beating Duke or UNC-Ch on much lately, but at least beating Wake is a start and State is clawing towards .500 vs. WF. We have come a long way, but this is the year to win big. No excuses. The door may not be this open for a while. We all know we haven’t had much success vs. the elite teams of the ACC/NCAA. Win this year and we’ll all be happy and hopefully appreciative because it’s been so long. 1987 anyone? How about a Final 8?

  8. VaWolf82 01/23/2006 at 11:51 PM #

    Guess how many Top 5 teams Texas has beaten in last 4 seasons(excluding this year)??????

    What does this prove? What useful conclusions can be drawn from this info?

    As far as I can tell, all that it proves is that neither State nor Texas is a top 5 program…hardly earth-shattering news.

    I can’t believe you are even mentioning Lute Olsen and Arizona in any discussion about Herb:

    1997 national championship
    Four Final Four appearances
    19 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances
    10 Pacific-10 Conference titles

  9. class of '74 01/24/2006 at 6:24 AM #

    ^ “What does this prove?” He’s Ned in the Fed Ex ad, he always is wrong.

  10. Jeff 01/24/2006 at 8:04 AM #

    What does Team Rankings say about the number of Top 5 teams that these schools have LOST to over the years?

    I’d love to actually see the RECORDS and percentages as opposed to the self-selection of the nominal number of games.

    By this ‘reasoning’ there is no difference between going 2-2 or 2-100. That is ridiculous.

    And, what is the obsession with these couple of teams? Where does this stuff come from?

    How have Arizona & Florida & Texas done against the Top 25..not just the TOp 5?

  11. PACDADDY 01/25/2006 at 4:51 PM #

    “At least the thought process is consistent — because we don’t strive to be a Top 5 team, then we certainly don’t expect to ever be able to beat Top 5 teams.�

    This statement is why I made my point..74…sorry if you can’t grasp the point.

    You asked Jeff..soo..

    “What does Team Rankings say about the number of Top 5 teams that these schools have LOST to over the years?”….It says…over last 4 seasons…

    Texas is 0-12 verse top 5
    Arizona is 2-5 verse top 5
    Fla is 1-3 verse top 5

    YOU’VE GOT TO PLAY THEM IN ORDER TO “STRIVE”(OR DESERVE) TO BE ONE!

    What difference does it make WHO they were? NCSU was 3-12 with 2 wins over # 6 GT obviuosly not included….THAT ALMOST 30% WINNING % AGAINST TOP 6! I’D PUT THAT UP AGAINST MOST ANY PROGRAM IN THE NATION OVER LAST 4 SEASONS.

    I selected these schools because of their stature in the Nation. I didn’t know how the numbers would turn out…otherwise I may had left Arizona off 🙂 I left them there to show how few teams they actually played and beaten in top 5.

    VA..I know who Lute is…I know his record…thanks though.

    Like I said in other blog, we played twice as many top 5 teams as fla and Arizona combined.

    Obsession? You’re kidding…right?

    “How have Arizona & Florida & Texas done against the Top 25..not just the TOp 5?”

    Arizona…17-14…very good, but only played 23% games against top 5

    Fla…10-18…only 14%(to our 37%) top 5…that sucks! Oh…they did when the SEC tourney last season…wow! In case you guys have been sleeping, the SEC sucks to last 2 seasons!

    Texas…16-22…played 31% top 5(I wouldn’t say that’s all that great either…especially if you consider they didn’t beat one top 5 team and played 3 less top 5 teams than us.

    NCSU…13-27…played 37% Top 5

    A couple of points…NOTE:I’m not comparing Herb to any of these coaches, just suggesting throwing stats out to make a point can be misleading.

    In JUST 1 season of our last 4 seasons, we played more Top 5 teams than Arizona did in 4 seasons..how do you think that affects NCAA seeding when looking at W/L records?…we also had another season where we played 6(to there 7).

    We probably PLAYED MORE TOP 5 TEAMS IN TWO WEEKS THAN FLA PLAYED IN FOUR FRICKIN YEARS…FOLLOW!

    Fla has played 28 teams in top 25…we played 15 in top 5.

    POINT IS…this stats have no meaning to where those programs are at this time…just like OURS!

    oh…74…bite me 🙂

    Te

  12. VaWolf82 01/25/2006 at 11:13 PM #

    POINT IS…this stats have no meaning to where those programs are at this time…just like OURS!

    Well at least we agree that your stats have no meaning. However, when stats are compared within the ACC, then they show where any given team ranks within the ACC…which is the point you seem to have trouble grasping.

  13. PACDADDY 01/27/2006 at 8:23 PM #

    VA…I don’t know why you keep saying I don’t “grasp” the point of comparing ACC teams…Are you saying we haven’t been competitve in the ACC?…what are YOU NOT GRASPING?

    Comparing computer rankings is a simple process…why isn’t comparing us to anyone not valid?

    Jeff made a simple statement about us not beating top 5 teams…i showed him we have played and beaten more top 5 teams than 3 top national programs.

    He pulled out the old RPI stats…I showed him other teams(HE THINKS ARE GREAT) have had simular results.

    WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT CONFERENCE THEY PLAY IN??? These are computer rankings!

    If you say that we play top 5 teams only because of our conference and that’s your point…great!

    Funny thing is…Texas and Arizona only has played very few OOC teams ranked in top 5…and they were mostly ACC teams!

    Bottomline..all this means NOTHING…MY STATS…JEFF STATS>>>YOUR STATS.

    After the EFFORT of the last game we played, I honestly don’t have the stomach to talk much about this team right now…I can handle losses…I can’t stand lack of effort.

  14. VaWolf82 01/28/2006 at 12:17 AM #

    Are you saying we haven’t been competitve in the ACC?…what are YOU NOT GRASPING?
    State is not competitive with Duke or UNC. State is competitive with MD and WF but have usually come up on the short end. In summary, that puts Herb and State in the middle of the ACC…..or stuck on pretty good.

    WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT CONFERENCE THEY PLAY IN???
    Because State doesn’t compete against those teams. The records against the RPI Top-50 tell exactly the same story as the head-to-head records….Herb and State are stuck in the middle of the ACC

  15. PACDADDY 01/29/2006 at 12:14 AM #

    ^VA…if someone is going to bring up rpi records or claim we don’t beat top 5 teams, as a way to take a jab at this program(or keep us “grounded”), it’s simply a matter of fairness to compare those same standards to other programs that this “someone” may consider a top level program.

    Clearly… we can’t compare our program to others outside of ACC if we’re talking about conference championships or conference w/l records, because in most years, the ACC is at a different level from top to bottom.

    I’m tired of seeing state fans say we haven’t been competitive with UNC over last 4/5 seasons…that’s crap. IF we finish ahead of UNC this year…A BIG IF…we would have done it 4 of last 5 seasons…2 of 3 with Roy as coach…that’s competitive. Maybe not your definition, but MOST anyone would agree with that statement. Head to head is simply “another” way to define “competitive”.

    Kind of like…we’ve been competitive with FSU in FB…but have we really? I’d rather lose to them and finish ahead of the in the standings…wouldn’t you?

  16. VaWolf82 01/29/2006 at 1:15 PM #

    I’m tired of seeing state fans say we haven’t been competitive with UNC over last 4/5 seasons…that’s crap.

    Actually, I’m tired of people using a four or five year period of time so that they can claim State HAS been competitive. 0-5 is not competitive…no matter how hard you work to make it seem like it. Beating UNC is not the ultimate goal of the BB season and neither is finishing ahead of them.

    Finishing ahead of UNC doesn’t make State competitive with them….it simply means that losing to UNC is not the end of the season. I don’t know why it doesn’t seem to bother you that other coaches can figure out how to beat UNC and Roy, but Herb can’t.

    Beating FSU (when they are the top of the conference) gives fans hope that the FB program can move up. Beating UNC has as much to do with friends, family, and co-workers who are UNC fans as anything else.

    Living in Central VA, I am pretty well insulated from all of that crap. Nearly everyone here hates UNC as well.

  17. PACDADDY 01/30/2006 at 7:45 PM #

    VA…you’re tired of using the last 4 or 5 years?…You guys love using the other years when we sucked, but act like UNC didn’t exist when DOH was coach. For the record…Herb gets a little slack from most fans, because of the ground he had to make up.

    Honest QUESTION…was V “competitive” with UNC…how about Sloan? I say they were…you must not agree.

    You have a self serving logic. Head to head, we have beat them as bad as they have beaten us.

    If you don’t like the 4-5 years..then let’s go back to ’70…we’ve been through these debates before, and it ain’t pretty.

    Still…we managed to NCAA titles, and a few ACC titles. That is competitve.

    ‘Finishing ahead of UNC doesn’t make State competitive with them”

    I sorry…that comment is so wrong on many different levels it isn’t even funny.

  18. VaWolf82 01/30/2006 at 9:38 PM #

    VA…you’re tired of using the last 4 or 5 years?…You guys love using the other years when we sucked,

    My only entry comparing Herb to the rest of the ACC used only his best four years….and he still comes out in fifth place.

    Honest QUESTION…was V “competitive� with UNC…how about Sloan?

    Most years, no….but those coaches still managed significant accomplishments. Herb has one S-16 as his bright shining moment…and 0-5 against Roy. So Herb is not competitive and is accomplishing very little when compared to V or Sloan.

    but act like UNC didn’t exist when DOH was coach.

    Once again, not true. However, if we are comparing Herb to coaches currently in the ACC, Doh doesn’t count. I’ve never compared Herb to Gillen…..why bother? Same for Doh.

    Go back and read your posts…you are the one that is also using IF or BUT when evaluating State’s accomplishments. I don’t ignore the past OR try to change it when making my evaluations.

    Here’s a prime example….several times you have said the Josh Powell leaving early set Herb and State back. Are you willing to make the same allowance for Prosser this year?

  19. PACDADDY 01/31/2006 at 10:15 PM #

    “Here’s a prime example….several times you have said the Josh Powell leaving early set Herb and State back. Are you willing to make the same allowance for Prosser this year?”

    First off…Powell leaving only took a team that had great potential and made it more difficult for Herb to continue his progress. Nobody expected Powell to leave…he was a 4 year player. I don’t know the real reason Powell left. I’ve heard his reasons(which makes no sense), and I’ve heard rumor…but that was something a coach can’t plan for.

    Prosser lost a player that everyone thought should go to the NBA. HE WAS A LOTTERY PICK. Normally a coach plans for that to happen when you have a player of that caliber….if they don’t, it’s their fault. You live by the sword you die by the sword.

    If we lose Ced or Brackman to the NBA or MLBB, I hope Herb has a plan for it. I doubt Ced is a lottery pick right now, but you never know.

    I’m done cutting Herb “slack”. He’s built this program into a stable product. Prosser deserves “slack” because in the regular season he has proven to be a fine coach and has had some very good seasons to warrant slack. I just wonder how long it will take him to OVERCOME the loss of ONE PLAYER.

  20. PACDADDY 01/31/2006 at 10:50 PM #

    “However, if we are comparing Herb to coaches currently in the ACC, Doh doesn’t count. I’ve never compared Herb to Gillen…..why bother? Same for Doh.
    …DOH may not count, but his players sure do…ask ROY.

  21. VaWolf82 01/31/2006 at 11:16 PM #

    …DOH may not count, but his players sure do…ask ROY.

    Coaching matters too.

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