Stat of the Day – Large Margins

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day13

We are more than half way through the basketball season and I was reflecting today on how solid the year has been. I also was thinking about how “odd” some of the season felt and started contemplating the games on our schedule and found the following particularly interesting:

Of the 18 games that NC State has played this season, 15 of the games have been decided by 10 points or more.

NC State has played in a 3 point loss, a 4 point win, and a 9 point victory.

No other ACC school as played in less games decided by less than 10 points.

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

13 Responses to Stat of the Day – Large Margins

  1. choppack 01/24/2006 at 8:33 PM #

    Here’s another interesting #. ATS – we are the top school from a major conference – at this time. We’ll see if that holds up, but it’s nothing to be ashamed of.

  2. Sammy Kent 01/24/2006 at 9:41 PM #

    And it’s a darn good thing, too. We can talk all we want about Herb’s growth, evolution, improvement, whatever, and I will admit that I think a lot of that is true. But the one coaching shortcoming that seems destined to stay with him longest is his inability to manipulate the endgame in a close contest. If so many of our games weren’t double-digit margins with two minutes to go, we probably woudn’t have won as many of them. That’s true for any coach, but moreso for Herb. (Billy Tubbs had the same problem, and it cost him the national championship in 1988.)

  3. Jeff 01/24/2006 at 10:28 PM #

    ^ That will make a lot of people very mad…but it is impossible to actually argue with when looking at the numbers.

    Sendek has definitely done an admirable job of turning around his floundering program and building a perception of Top 30ish (and improving).

    But, the two most painful macro trends that are yet to turn around (and desperately need to this year) are
    (1) the disproportionately poor performance against Top 25 teams (aka ‘good competition’), and
    (2) the very ppor performance in close games (relatively synonymous with “collapsing” down the stretch).

    Love to hear the Against the Spread stat. Very cool. Wish I had a bookie.

  4. TVP 01/25/2006 at 12:25 AM #

    One thing I’ve always been interested in knowing is how our typically strong free throw percentage numbers affect the “close games” stat.

    My suspicion is that we’ve avoided a lot of close games when we’ve led going into the final minutes by hitting free throws to keep the margin comfortable or extend it. That could skew the record in games decided by 3-5 points or less to the negative.

    No hard evidence to back that up yet – maybe I’ll look at it when I have some free time.

    I agree that we’ve done pretty poorly in “last posession” situations when either down 1 posession or tied, with the notable exception of the UConn game (at least it seems that way from memory).

  5. class of '74 01/25/2006 at 6:41 AM #

    Chris Wright is the answer to the close game dilemma. Although, we as a team handle the ball well, we always have lacked the true point guard that: calls the play, that distributes the ball, that handles the pressure. How many final seconds of a half or end game situations have we witnessed, no shot at all or a desperation heave from 30+ feet.

    This year our FT’s and better shooting percentage from the field (a low post finisher) have given us the cushion to avoid the nightly nailbiters

  6. choppack 01/25/2006 at 9:47 AM #

    GaTech was a close game at the end of last year.

    It’s really a dual-edged sword. I think anyone who has watched Sendek’s teams w/ any kind of objectivity would conclude that if you chart the game – he struggles most those last 2 minutes.

    However, I’d also tell you there’s a silver lining – he excels at preparation and strategy for an opponent.

    It’s a shame, but coaches are rarely perfect. Bobby Knight may combine the best preparation and game-day decisions, but his day to day demeanor hurts both the long term and short term development of his program. Dean Smith had a fantastic system that his team ran flawlessly – but his system had flaws. Coach K’s teams generally spill their guts out on the floor every night. However, his teams also blow leads in the closing minutes of games – big games, too – his first national championship, the UConn semi-final, the UMd ACC tourney final. Valvano was the best bench coach around. However, his teams would lose to terribly inferior opponents on a routine basis.

    Herb doesn’t belong in the aforementioned. I only say that to point out that if this weakness can be overcome – or more likely – minimized by the system and talent he can put together – it will be a flaw we could live with in due time and given certain successes.

  7. Clarksa 01/25/2006 at 9:53 AM #

    “I agree that we’ve done pretty poorly in “last posessionâ€? situations when either down 1 posession or tied, with the notable exception of the UConn game (at least it seems that way from memory).”

    It seems to me that one simple adjustment can help us in this category. When we get into a last second situation, or even a shot clock winding down situation, we always seem to start to push for the score around the 8sec mark. When our primary play doesn’t develop in this 8sec, we panic and either throw up a wild shot or no shot at all. Maybe is over-simplification, but it seems that we would have more options if we start our offense aound the 12sec mark.

  8. BJD95 01/25/2006 at 11:06 AM #

    Very interesting stuff. I think that Sendek’s gameplans, halftime adjustments, AND in-game coaching have been much, much better this year. Maybe it’s confidence, maybe it’s not having the Hunter “security blanket,” maybe it’s just a statistical anamoly based on limited data.

  9. Jeff 01/25/2006 at 11:13 AM #

    “It’s really a dual-edged sword. I think anyone who has watched Sendek’s teams w/ any kind of objectivity would conclude that if you chart the game – he struggles most those last 2 minutes.

    However, I’d also tell you there’s a silver lining – he excels at preparation and strategy for an opponent.”

    I would completely agree with this statement.

    Class of 74 — after a decade of hearing the proclamations…forgive me if I don’t jump on any bandwagon that announces any 16 year old as “the answer”

    Adam Harrington was the answer
    Damien Wilkins was the answer
    The #3 recruiting class in the country and Julius Hodge was the answer
    Many players that never ended up in Raleigh were going to be the answer

    No way that sunjective proclamation can be accepted until it happens.

  10. choppack 01/25/2006 at 11:37 AM #

    clark – I see your point, but one thing to remember – if you are holding for the last shot, you don’t want to leave much time at all.

    Of course, if you are talking about the last 2 minutes in general – I agree.

  11. Mr. O 01/25/2006 at 2:35 PM #

    Jeff: The #3 recruiting class in the country led us to:

    3 top 4 ACC finishes
    4 NCAA tourney bids
    2 ACC tourney finals
    1 Sweet 16
    56% ACC winning percentage

    Our recruiting on the heels of that class have given us the best team at this point in the season since Valvano was our coach. That is without a single contribution from a freshman recruiting class that includes a McD AA and another top 40 player.

    Certainly Herb has missed on recruits (like even guys like Gary Williams did with John Gilchrist). But there is certainly a lot of non-subjective evidence that points to a fair assumption that Herb is finding guys who can succeed in his program and help make our program successful on the court since recruiting the likes of Damien Wilkins and Adam Harrington.

  12. class of '74 01/25/2006 at 2:59 PM #

    ^Jeff if I had not seen Chris Wright with my own eyes I would agree, but he is as good if not better than Towe, Lowe and Corchianni. I say that having seen all four personally and he is the ONLY quality point guard Herb has had so far.
    With all due respect to Gainey, Miller etc…

  13. Mr. O 01/25/2006 at 3:22 PM #

    That is great to hear. I haven’t gone to see any of our recruits play in HS since Bennerman’s class.

    I saw where Brick Oettinger has Julian Vaughn rated #28 overall. He also said that UNC is recruiting him, but probably won’t offer unless they miss on several top 15 guys they are recruiting. It sounds like our chances are pretty good with Vaughn.

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