RPI and the ACC

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day86

Now that we’ve seen what the RPI rankings of Final Four teams look like, let’s look to see how various ACC coaches have done with respect to the RPI rankings and head-to-head comparisons.

Notes:

– For simplicity, I will only look at those coaches who have taken their team to the NCAA tournament at least twice during the last four years.
– Al Skinner and BC were included for informational purposes only. Meaningful comparisons will have to wait until BC has played an ACC schedule.
– Only years from current ACC coaches were included.
– The years that a team appeared in the NCAA tournament are noted in RED and BOLD.

Final RPI Ranking

 

2002

2003

2004

2005*

NC State

37

53

17

65

Duke

4

12

1

4

Georgia Tech

82

76

16

27

Maryland

2

37

18

57

North
Carolina

—

—

19

6

Wake Forest

24

7

20

7

Boston College

40

49

22

9

*New RPI formula implemented.

Interesting Trivia #1
In 2003 and 2005, NC State had the lowest RPI ranking of any team receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. This doesn’t prove that State was the last team in, but it sure is a strong suggestion.

Interesting Trivia #2
Much was made in the comments of a recent entry about State having to play a lot of ACC teams who were also top-10 teams…thus claiming that Herb’s miserable record versus the RPI Top-50 is skewed and misleading. However, the ACC only had two top-10 teams in 2002 and only one top-10 team in 2003 and 2004. This raises the question of what exactly is happening here…skewing statistics or scrambling for excuses?





Record vs RPI Top-50

 

2002

2003

2004

2005

Cumulative

Winning Percentage

NC State

3-7

2-8

7-7

4-8

0.348

Duke

11-2

4-2

10-4

7-2

0.762

Georgia Tech

3-11

2-6

8-7

2-7

0.326

Maryland

9-3

2-5

7-9

3-4

0.500

North
Carolina

—

—

7-7

6-3

0.565

Wake Forest

5-8

3-3

8-7

6-3

0.512

Boston College

4-7

1-5

6-6

6-3

0.447

Interesting Trivia #3
In Doherty’s last year, UNC went to the NIT with a 5-8 record (38% winning percentage) against the RPI Top 50. That same year, State went to the NCAA tournament with a 2-8 record (20% winning percentage) against the RPI Top-50.

Interesting Trivia #4
Herb has only exceeded Doherty’s 38% winning percentage against the RPI Top-50 (from 2003) one time.

Combined Regular Season and ACC Tourney Results

NC State’s Record vs:

 

2002

2003

2004

2005

Overall

Duke

0-3

1-2

1-1

0-2

2-8

Georgia Tech

1-1

1-1

2-0

2-0

6-2

Maryland

1-2

0-2

1-2

2-0

4-6

North
Carolina

—

—

0-2

0-2

0-4

Wake Forest

0-2

1-2

2-0

1-2

4-6

Boston College

—

0-1

0-1

—

0-2

Interesting Trivia #5
In Doherty’s last year, UNC was 6-10 in the ACC. In Roy Williams first year, UNC was 8-8 in the ACC, ie only two games better. However, Doherty was 0-2 against State in 2003 and Roy was 2-0 against State in 2004.

So What Does This Mean?
Where does Herb and NC State rank in the ACC over Herb’s best four years? I think that most rational people would rank Herb and State behind Duke, UNC (with Roy), Maryland, and Wake Forest. Much like Lee Fowler has forgotten Herb’s first five years, I am sure that very few people (other than certain State fans) make any attempt to recall Doherty’s last two years at Carolina.

You can argue about Sendek vs Hewitt (because of Georgia Tech’s run to the NCAA title game), but I would think that the head-to-head record and four straight trips to the NCAA tournament put Herb and State ahead of Georgia Tech. As mentioned previously, there is not enough data to make good comparisons with Boston College.

Attempts have been made to excuse or ignore State’s losses to teams rated in the RPI Top-10. However, I will go one better. What is Herb’s record vs the top four ACC coaches (by my evaluation) when State had the same or better ACC record? (Of course, this stipulation removes Duke from the comparison.)

Year

State’s Record

Opponent

Opponents

Record

State’s Record vs

Opponent

(includes ACCT)

2002

9-7

Wake Forest

9-7

0-2

2004

11-5

Wake Forest

9-7

2-0

2004

11-5

North
Carolina

8-8

0-2

2004

11-5

Maryland

7-9

1-2

2005

7-9

Maryland

7-9

2-0

 

 

 

Total:

5-6

Once again, Herb comes out on the short end.

I have recently pointed out many of the mistakes I see State fans make when analyzing or discussing NC State athletics. I have no interest in making those (or any) mistakes. I am not interested in compiling or skewing stats to justify some preconceived opinion or conclusion. I am simply listing facts and trends that I have seen over the last several years of the Great Herb Debate. If someone has some conflicting data, then by all means present it. However, I am not interested in doing some statistical study that someone else dreams up…so don’t waste your time suggesting that I do it.

I am sure that no one expects to change the past. However, I am constantly amazed that State fans can’t even agree on what the facts are.

Rhetorical Questions
Why does discussing Herb’s record constantly get labeled as being critical or negative? If his record is considered out-of-bounds, then what are we supposed to talk about….Seeds of Greatness?…or maybe the latest uttering from some 16 year old phenom?

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

86 Responses to RPI and the ACC

  1. choppack 12/13/2005 at 1:28 PM #

    “If the BB program was really improving under Sendek, then it seems to me that the “same crapâ€? would eventually lose validity. I look forward to the day that we have something other than the “same crapâ€? to discuss.”

    Compared to where it was, it certainly has improved. I would also say that there is some evidence that it continues to improve. The evidence hasn’t necessarily manifested itself in better RPI ratings, but in the last 2 years we’ve gone farther in the NCAA and had a better conference record than ever.

    We’ll know more about the true state of our program after this year – whether we’re stuck in a rut of .500 ACC records, at-large, bubble bids for the NCAA or whether it’s something to be excited about, or whether the last 4 years were the result of Hodge and Hunter. I do think it shows how far we’ve come at a program where now the discussion is “these tourney bids and 2nd round exits, ACC semifinal appearances, just aren’t good enough.”

    Quite frankly, I’m interested to see where end up and I understand completely Pacdaddy’s frustration. Sendek’s results have been consistent. They were consistent his first 5 years and then we turned a corner and sustained the results the next 4 – at the very least. If, and believe me, that’s a huge if, we make a similar jump these upcoming 4 – will you be happy?

  2. Class of '74 12/13/2005 at 1:47 PM #

    This is what 90% of wolfpackers want to see:
    1. Perennial top 25
    2. top three finish in ACC 7 out of 10 years
    3. at least split games with UNC & Duke
    4. win ACC tournament once every 5 years
    5. 3 sweet sixteens every decade
    6. 1 elite eight or final four per decade
    7. never have a losing season ACC or OOC

  3. Rick Jernigan 12/13/2005 at 2:12 PM #

    Class of ’74 – I really like your list with a couple of caveats. #3 – V & Sloan both won about 33% of their games with UNC (no bad years for UNC during their tour). They were both great coaches. #7 – My guess is that Press Maravich is the only State coach to never have had a losing season in the ACC.

    I’d also add one more – NEVER be put on NCAA probation.

  4. site admin 12/13/2005 at 2:16 PM #

    This is what 90% of wolfpackers want to see? Thtat is what all ACC teams other than Duke or UNC want to see

  5. Mr O 12/13/2005 at 2:17 PM #

    I don’t have a lot of time to read everything, but did we not play UNC in 2002 and 2003?

    I thought we went 2-0 each of those seasons.

  6. Class of '74 12/13/2005 at 2:17 PM #

    No arguments from me on that one. Although I do remember a guy #44 that we spent one year on probation for that was probably worth it!

  7. VaWolf82 12/13/2005 at 2:45 PM #

    “…did we not play UNC in 2002 and 2003? I thought we went 2-0 each of those seasons.”

    Those years were not included since that coach is no longer in the ACC.

  8. choppack 12/13/2005 at 2:45 PM #

    This is what 90% of wolfpackers want to see:
    1. Perennial top 25 – I think this is reasonable.
    2. top three finish in ACC 7 out of 10 years – I don’t think V met this requirement.
    3. at least split games with UNC & Duke – I don’t think V met this requirement
    4. win ACC tournament once every 5 years – I don’t have a problem w/ this, but would you fire Gary Williams or Skip Prosser?
    5. 3 sweet sixteens every decade – Very Reasonable.
    6. 1 elite eight or final four per decade – Again, very reasonable.
    7. never have a losing season ACC or OOC – You just fired V.

    Folks need to be very careful when defining requirements for success. Myself, I’m kind of 2 out of the 3 guy for the regular season, ACC tourney, and NCAA tournament. (For example, I thought last year we acheived acceptable results in 2 out of the 3. As a result, overall, his results were acceptable.)

    There are a lot of different ways to measure success, and I think you submitted what in your mind were reasonable requirements – and Jim Valvano didn’t 3 of your 7 requirements. Gary Williams doesn’t meet your requirements, and if Skip Prosser doesn’t win an ACC championship this year, he won’t either.

  9. Danny 12/13/2005 at 2:47 PM #

    Enjoyed the stats. From a Tar Heel perspective (see Trivia #3, #4) the Heels (at THAT time) didn’t come close to the talent AND experience level of State during those years. Doherty deserves a little props because most of us have forgotten the poor recruiting from the Guthridge years. But, it is obvious that a top level coach makes a BIG difference.

    Herb is doing a good job, but I understand the frustration voiced here in SFN.

  10. VaWolf82 12/13/2005 at 3:17 PM #

    “because most of us have forgotten the poor recruiting from the Guthridge years.”

    Gutheridge’s recruiting classes were very highly rated coming out of HS. For whatever reason, they just didn’t produce at the college level.

    Thad Mumau wrote an article for the old ACCToday website that summarized the national recruiting class rankings for each school in the ACC. I saved it to my hard disk for conversations just like this one:

    There is not always a direct path from highly-rated recruiting classes to highly successful teams, however. Take North Carolina, for example. The Tar Heels had the No. 3 class in the nation (all rankings here are from The Recruiter’s Handbook, i.e., Prepstars.com) in 1998 and followed with No. 9, No. 4 and No. 2 from 1999-2001, respectively.

  11. Class of '74 12/13/2005 at 3:18 PM #

    My list was to put it mildly simplistic. It is intended as a guideline for goals we all would like to see. Not if you meet some but not others it is addios.

    V, in winning the ’83 title, would have gotten a lot of grace time from me if I were AD. And no I would never have fired V if I had been AD. He met my criteria for success plus he was very smart and entertaining as well.

  12. Danny 12/13/2005 at 3:50 PM #

    to Vawolf, wasn’t arguing: I was making the point that truly, whatever the rank of the recruiting class, the “talent” in 2000-2002 at UNC was not as good as State’s. Julius Peppers was the best player on the court at the end of 2001 and freshman David Noel was the “center” in 2002 (Sean May was injured). Adam Boone, Jason Capel, Kris Lang and company from 2001 would not have started at either State or Duke. Joseph Forte was talented but a “head case”….

    I think the point of the original article was that Herb has not achieved to SFN’s satisfaction. My final point was that a top level coach does make a difference.

  13. Class of '74 12/13/2005 at 4:01 PM #

    Quite frankly, if you take all seven goals as must be met requirements, only Dean Smith would not have been fired using my list. That is providing you gave him three years to build his program.

  14. VaWolf82 12/13/2005 at 4:52 PM #

    My final point was that a top level coach does make a difference.

    I couldn’t agree more. Al Featherston made the same point in an article on DBR:

    http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/main/index.cgi?7076

  15. choppack 12/13/2005 at 5:19 PM #

    Co74 – I understand – I think all things considered, your list was pretty reasonable, especially when you throw in the caveat that all 7 requirements don’t have to be met in a give year.

    VaWolf – that’s a good article. I think we all believe that coaches make a huge difference – I’d add moreso in b’ball than football. (Does anyone think that Pete Carrol would have run the table 2 regular seasons in a row at Washington State?)

    Like I said, that in year 10, we still wonder if we have the right guy, says a lot. Clearly, the program is in better shape – but it’s also hard to argue that w/out a doubt, Herb is the guy who’ll return us to our former glory.

    VaWolf – I’ll ask you a question again – if Herb accomplishes something positive that he hasn’t done in his career thus far in the next 2 years – an ACC Championship, a regular season title, or a Final 8 or better – where does that put our program under Sendek? (And yea, I’m giving him an extra year window, I’m figuring that in year 5 things fell apart and he got ’em back together in year 6, so I’m thinking that we could have a step back in year 10, and he would get another year from the world’s most forgiving AD – when it comes to coaches.)

  16. VaWolf82 12/13/2005 at 6:59 PM #

    VaWolf – I’ll ask you a question again – if Herb accomplishes something positive that he hasn’t done in his career thus far in the next 2 years – an ACC Championship, a regular season title, or a Final 8 or better – where does that put our program under Sendek?

    I’m not sure why you want my opinion, but yes any of those things would be a major accomplishment. But it is important to remember that no one accomplishment is going to win any coach a lifetime contract. I was a student at State when Norm Sloan left. At first everyone was shocked and worried, but then the general consensus was that he hadn’t done anything in about five years….maybe it was time for some new blood. Rumors were that the AD (Willis Casey) didn’t think Sloan was worth the money he was asking for. If true, one can only assume that the AD reached the same conclusion.

    As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the statistical analysis started with Sendek fans dreaming up new definitions of success…..then I (and alot of other people) started looking at the real data to come up with rebuttals to happy stats such as beating x national champions over the last four years. If Sendek starts to achieve some real milestones, then I am sure that all of the statistical analysis will drift away.

  17. lumberpack 12/13/2005 at 7:40 PM #

    Herbs record sucks, anyone who says different is a liar, pure and simple.

  18. Jim (Col Bat) 12/13/2005 at 10:16 PM #

    Not that my opinion is worth listening to, but here is my take on the whole Herb thing. I am not as anti-Herb as many expect me to be or think I should be.

    First, you have a clash of cultures. You have a group of fans (Jeff, etc) who were fans during and remember State having a nationally elite program. Then you have other (like me) who are newer to State fandom and thereby have lower standards of what level of accomplishment is good enough to keep that person happy. Often, this latter fan had his formative years during the Les era while the former during the Sloan or early V era. To me, the middle of the ACC is far more acceptable than it is to Brock. Neither one of us is a bad person for having different standards. We were products of environment.

    Second big point: Numbers don’t (to me) tell the whole story with Herb because of what Les (and others) did to the program. All of the self-imposed garbage we put ourselves under (with Les being the biggest self-imposed obstacle) set the program back to death penalty levels. When Herb took over not only did we have no talent, no momentum, no recent coaching, and the worst facilities in the conference, we also had, a fanbase at war with itself. I know these are considered “excuses,” but I personally cut Herb a lot of slack for his early struggles. Add to that the fact that Inge and Thornton (IIRC) were Les recruits Herb basically inherited. Don’t forget that Les could have had Joe Smith had we offered and TURNED DOWN Jason Sasser (in favor of Marcus Wilson IIRC) and Ray Allen (in favor of Stackhouse, who Les then proceeded to lose). What is that saying about making chicken salad? There were zero chicken salad ingredients on hand when Herb took over and actually it was difficult to make the ingredients.

    Third main point: The later Herb years I look at this way. Yes it is frustrating. Yes I also hate this offense. Yes I hate the OOC schedule. Yes we should be further along. BUT we are better and we are making progress. This is by far the deepest and most talented team Herb has had. Everyone must admit that the sweet 16 last year was a significant step forward. Remember, the Les years stick in my mind as the baseline, and those years were absolutely humiliating. I was just hoping one day we would be competetive with the middle of the ACC some day. Well, here we are.

    Fourth main point: Herb has yet to have a “signiture” accomplishment on which to hang his hat. Without this hat-hanger we are left to judge him (harshly) on his record againt elite programs and standards against which almost no coach can look good. If Herb had a “hat hanger win” or two IMO the whole tone of the discussion changes. Had Vandy not scored 18 points in 5 possessions we would now have 2 16s, or obviously had we held on against Duke in the ACC final when we had the big lead, or held on to the lead over Wisconsin we would naturally have accomplishments rather than the cold record on which to judge him. Obviuosly the obvious retort is the “aunt had balls” line and that is 100% true. However, the fact that we were so close on so many gives me hope that we are on the right track and he will bereak through with a hat hanger or two with the team he has now.

    Fifth major point: I hate this offense. Someone who knows basketball please explaim why we would reduce our margin of error on purpose. We have good athletic players now. Why are we trying to beat teams 56-52? We have no margin for error playing this way.

    Sixth point: this year, in my mind, is a huge determiner for Herb. If he can continue the upward trend I will be more confident in my faith. If he can’t I will have to rethink things.

    I don’t claim to have the Herb debate Rosetta Stone but those are my thoughts. I don’t think I’ve ever posted them.

  19. lonchaney87 12/13/2005 at 10:27 PM #

    From way up higher from PacDaddy – some points and counterpoints:

    “Per Greenfield?
    NCSU 24-36
    GT 22-39
    Mary 32-27
    WF 31-28
    UNC 29-35
    AS you can see?6-8 wins over a course of 4 seasons, isn?t a huge difference. Especially if you consider WF going 11-5 in one season and us going 1-7 4 seasons ago.”

    OK, I’ll play. Two wins a year would increase our total by 10% each year; if you don’t think that matters I’m curious. Here are 6-8 wins over the last 4 years and you tell me whether they’d have made a difference in this discussion:

    ACC finals vs. Duke – blown 15 point lead
    ACC semis vs. Md – Meltdown #1
    NCAA tourney – Vandy – Meltdown #2
    NCAA tourney – Cal – they were a klunker of a team
    NCAA tourney – Wisconsin – would have made Final 8
    VT, FSU, Miami – borderline teams we lost to last year in our “best year ever” under Herb (as measured by NCAA tourney “progress”). How much better would our seeding in the ACC and NCAA tourneys have been had we won those?
    Not to mention the abominations to basketball which were the St. John’s, Temple, BC, Iowa games, etc.

    “This season I expect us to close the gap further. ”

    Why is there forever a “gap” and who’s responsible for closing it? How many years does it take to close said gap? Why is there not a gap in our favor, with others chasing us?

    “I?ll concede we didn?t do as well as I expect, mainly because of the 0-5 record 3 seasons ago against 26-50?but I bet it?s closer than most of you thought. If this was done nationally and compared to TOP teams that play simular schedules, you?ll probably see simular results. ”

    Is this our mantra? To not stink as badly as everyone thought? “NC State, they’re scrappy. Look out, they could win a game or two.” Wow, shoot for the stars. By the way, we do not deserve to be compared to TOP teams until we do something TOP-worthy. Top teams don’t run gimmicks for an offense. I heard that Princeton now says “they run the NC State offense.” So much for the UK offense we’ve been anticipating for the past D-E-C-A-D-E.

    “The point is?none of these teams outside of Duke are DOMINATING AS YOU WOULD LIKE EVERYONE TO BELIEVE. UNC did last season?what are they going to do this season?..who knows ”

    Who cares what UNC does this season? If I were a Tarheel fan fresh off an NCAA title I wouldn’t give a rat’s @$$ if we went 0-29 the following year. But that’s a problem State will never have w/ Professor Daytight Compartment as coach. Is that your solace – that we should be happy because Carolina won’t be as good as last year – BECAUSE ALL THEIR TEAM IS IN THE NBA NOW? Whew, I DO feel better now. (Maybe we can take a step forward for a nanosecond as they field a much weaker team than last year, not that we’ve gotten one lick better, and smoke-and-mirror our way into the NCAAs again.)

    “FACTS JEFF?.. All you guys do is repeat the same crap over and over again, and anyone mention the FACTS about untimely injuries, unexpected attrition, all we hear is ?excuses? or ?everyone goes through this?. ”

    The reason the same crap gets mentioned over and over is because the same crap happens every year, perpetrated by the same inept, underachieving regime that is NC State basketball, the administration and most unbelievably, ACCEPTED by a sizable portion of our fanbase. Boo hoo about “untimely injuries” or “unexpected attrition!” As a coach you must plan for that. I suppose Case, Sloan, V, Dean, Lefty, K, or any other successful coaches on planet Earth have never faced these problems – only poor little Herbie! The FACTS are that we are title-free for the past 17 years (except the BCA and Hispanic “Classics”). We’re free to make any changes we’d like to amend that sore spot, but persist in our pathetic, safe little quadrant of mediocrity. “Better to be a middling team and squeak into the NCAAs as the 64th team than try and actually compete with the “top 10;” but at least we’re not a joke.” – Thank goodness the US military hasn’t had your attitude over the past 100 years or we’d all be speaking German or Japanese……No guts, no glory and we clearly have no guts. Just turn a profit and remain “respectable.”

    “It?s gets old on both sides. The difference is we?re supporting the program, you and your bud?s prefer to rip it apart..that?s a fact.”

    So if my boss gives me some negative feedback and wants me to better, he/she is “ripping me apart?” Or just thinking I can do better/expecting better from me? Am I not replaceable at work if I don’t meet expectations or do I get a lifetime deal as long as I stay out of trouble and am better than the guy before me? But wait, I actually have measurable, stated goals at work which determine my pay and continued employment, so I guess that doesn’t apply to this discussion.

    “Everyone has their facts they prefer to look at and simply looking at win and losses is extremely narrow minded. If you looked a V?s record with the same watchful eye, you?d be disappointed. Thank God he won early in ?83 or he wouldn?t have lasted 3 more years at NCSU.”

    “simply looking at wins and losses is extremely narrow minded.” – when done in conjunction with which teams you are playing and what’s on the line, it is invaluable and sorry, the only pertinent measure for a coach/AD to be evaluated on aside from the obvious “run a clean program and graduate your players.” When you look at Herb’s W/L record it’s a house of cards – a mildly impressive record puffed up on weaksisters which we devour and coordinate sham tournaments to schedule. Don’t even talk to me about V, whose OOC games included made for TV matchups like UNLV, Louisville, SMU in the Koncak (sp?) years, UK during the Kenny Skywalker era, etc. Let me know when Herb and Lee dial up a game like that. It’s this dumbed down thinking that kills me. Anyone older than 25 should know that we used to be a major player in ACC hoops, having more or the same # of national titles/ACC titles as Duke and UNC – the two teams we’re now quivering in fright from and that many of our fans have convinced themselves that we’re not fit to carry their jocks. Where’s your sense of history and self-respect? I for one am not interested in playing for 3rd (at best) each year and will continue to push for coaches and ADs who don’t want to settle at that level either. I’ll take the “fluctuations” of the V era any day. Hmmm, two ACC titles, a national title, a couple of final 8s – yeah, I think I could live with that……

    “Sure?you can go back and breakdown why V struggled to put forward outstanding winning records, you can claim the FSU factor, or Doherty sucks, as to what has help Herb, but what it boils down to is rationalizing your point of view.”

    PD – if you don’t think the crummy D’oh teams or the two gimmies in most years over FSU are significant in helping out Herb, you’re the one rationalizing. Combined w/ the OOC jokes and it’s custom made for Herb and Lee in the form over substance scheduling technique. The first two years Herbert made the NCAAs, we coincidentally went 4-0 vs. the Holes. Do you think in the absence of those wins we’d have gone dancing, i.e. if we’d pulled our statistically proven likely 0-4 against Carolina. I’d wager we don’t dance in either year. So the “11 win” stat is indeed inflated with extra games against marginal competition (FSU). And the “4 NCAAs in a row” benefits from the expanded field of 64, which as has been beaten to a pulp, prior coaches did not benefit from except at the end of V’s career.

    “Could Sendek do better? Does Posser need to preform better? Yes?how about Hewitt? Is Gary Williams having the type of program after a winning national title everyone expected? NO ”

    “Is GW having the type of pgm after winning a national title everyone expected.” You can’t be serious. I had to quit laughing before typing this up. You can’t seriously be comparing Herb to Gary. Let’s see – an ACC and national title for Gary and none for Herb. I dare say that if Herb had won those two things lately that this little debate wouldn’t be happening. There’s absolutely no comparison in any measure – total wins, quality wins, ACC wins, titles, players in the NBA, etc. NONE. And GW’s not even one of the two best coaches in the ACC……

    “All these programs have question marks from one season to next, we are consistently improving?maybe slight dips from one season to next, because of what OATHER PROGRAMS are doing, but our talent base has improved greatly. ”

    “Our talent base has improved greatly.” And this is based on and proven by what? Our ONE AND ONLY NBA player has graduated and based on the current regime, the next one is not due in Raleigh for another 5-6 years. This actually defeats your argument. If our talent has improved so greatly, then why on earth haven’t our results? Or is that again because we’re so reliant on other teams going in the tank to make any progress on our own (by default, not be beating teams which remain good.) But hey, w/ ACC expansion, help’s on the way. Now on top of traditional losers like Clemson and FSU we can add Miami and VT. Oh wait, spin it to me that those are actually great teams right? VT stayed w/i a basket of Duke!! “we are consistently improving” – LOL – that would mean in the ACC tourney you’d make it to the 1st round, 2nd round and eventually win the thing. Still waiting. And our “progress” in the NCAAs was due largely to one determined skinny kid from Harlem who refused to take the TO the coach wanted and actually drove the ball to the hole rather than “honoring the process” of passing 12 times and jacking a 3 with 0:01 on the shot clock. We gave it all right back the next weekend by blowing a big lead against a sorry Wisconsin team. Progress indeed.

    “Much the same issue we have witht the FB team. ”

    Apples and oranges. Our once proud and soon to be forgotten tradition lies in basketball. I’m not pleased with the past 2-3 years in football, but let’s be honest. We’ve won two NCs in basketball and we’ve never been to a BCS bowl; now where does the greater tradition lie and consequently, the higher expectations? And at least Chuck has shown an ability to beat the top teams – FSU, VT. He’s already gotten as many wins over FSU (the football equivalent of Duke in basketball) in six years than Herb has in nine over Duke, when Herb has typically played them 2-3 times a year. 3-3 vs. FSU for Chuck vs. what 3-23 for Herb against Dook? Chuck’s problem is beating the middle of the pack but at least there’s hope when we play a great team. Herb’s record against great teams show him for what he is – an average coach at best whose gimmick offense doesn’t work against top teams. We’ve gone as far as we can with Herb. The emperor has no clothes and I’m calling it out.

    And from Choppack:
    “Compared to where it was, it certainly has improved. I would also say that there is some evidence that it continues to improve. The evidence hasn’t necessarily manifested itself in better RPI ratings, but in the last 2 years we’ve gone farther in the NCAA and had a better conference record than ever. ”

    If the evidence hasn’t manifested itself, then how is it evidence?

    “I do think it shows how far we’ve come as a program where now the discussion is “these tourney bids and 2nd round exits, ACC semifinal appearances, just aren’t good enough.â€?

    Wow, ACC semifinal “appearances.” We had to win a whopping one game to reach that lofty plateau. Gag. This is the typical lowered expecation of much of the fanbase. 1-1 in the ACC tourney, presumeably winning one game as the higher seed. Whoopee! And again, “second round exits” in the NCAAs – win one game, presumeably as the higher seed, and exit. We have indeed arrived!!!

    Set the bar low enough and you’ll achieve your goals!! Welcome to the spinned out, dumbed down world of Lee Fowler and the HSSS!

  20. PACDADDY 12/13/2005 at 11:27 PM #

    OK…I took some time to prove my point.

    I took 4 teams without having any idea how they would match up and broke down their records. I picked programs that are considered superior to ours at this point and looked at their last 4 seasons. All these teams would be considered top notch by many on this blog…especially the all mighty Texas. Everyone has been to a Final 4 in the recent past. I can’t remember when Arizona was last there.

    The point I’ve tried to make is strictly looking at top 50 or top 25, without actually breaking down the actual rankings of the opponents is completely bogus, and unfair to the team that tends to play the harder or higher ranked teams.

    Simply loking at these stats without comparing them to other teams is a joke.

    I looked strictly at Top 25 records over the last four season and then took the time to actually look at how many of these teams played the VERY BEST IN NCAA BB during the season(top 5)…what a concept.

    This included post season games…if I didn’t include post season, many of these teams would have hardly played any top 5 teams, except for NCSU.

    I used Greenfield RPI.

    Here’s your facts:

    Team Record verse TOP 25 TOP 5 Played W’s verse Top 5

    NCSU 13-27 15 3…look it up

    TEXAS 16-22 12 0…yes…0

    ARIZONA 17-14 7 2

    FLA 10-18 4 1

    Now…it’s pretty clear to a monkey on prozac with a drinking problem, that we played BY FAR a more difficult schedule.

    FACT 1:We played 60 TOP 50 teams, but 25% of those teams were RANKED IN THE TOP FREAKIN 5!…not top 10…top 20….TOP 5… LOOK IT UP! Not counting a GT team we swept 2 games when they finished 6th.

    If you look at these numbers, only Arizona would be better, and that’s assuming they could continue the winning % they had against Top 5 teams.

    Now…we could argue this until the end of time, but Texas is equal or extremely close to us…does their record SUCK JEFF? Just curious.

    Now..I realize Barnes has only been there a short 5 years or so…but he was 2-4 last season against top 25 and ONLY PLAYED 1 top 5 team!…which..of course…he lost!

    Put this in your blog and smoke it. 🙂

  21. PACDADDY 12/13/2005 at 11:36 PM #

    Lonechaney…I won’t waste my time in responding to your entire post. You clearly missed my point from the beginning. I didn’t mean that any when wouldn’t have made a difference in the real world…my god..had GT won one more game to years ago they would have been National Champions.

    I’m quite aware of the many games we lost that would have made a HUGE difference…that’s part of my problem with many of you…we’ve been so close. That’s a hell of a lot better than no chance.

    My point was, if you look strictly at W/L’s without looking into the guts of a season(which is exactly what these stats do), a game or 2 against top 50 teams isn’t a big deal. Heck…We’ve had so many untimely injuries, they alone probably contribute to 2-3 w/l a year, the past 4 season.

    Hodge not playing against WV is an example. All teams have to deal with injuries, but few do every season at the worst times…call it an excuse…whatever…it doesn’t change the truth.

  22. packbackers 12/13/2005 at 11:57 PM #

    Pacdaddy, outstanding blog. Thanks for taking the time to come up with those stats. I am not at all surprised, While some people on this site like to make our basketball program seem like bottom feeders, others look at reality and see we are actually a national contender in the best conference in America. Of course there is work to be done, but to deny how far we’ve risen just in the last five years is to deny the truth. And you are dead on with your “almighty Texas” reference… I’ll take my chances with Herb while Rick Barnes stays with Texas (who hasn’t beaten a team who finished with a top 5 RPI since he’s been there, a la the 31 point embarassment on Saturday).

  23. PACDADDY 12/14/2005 at 12:15 AM #

    I couldn’t resist to comment on this great dose of wisdom.

    I said…”Our talent base has improved greatly.â€?

    lonchaney said..” And this is based on and proven by what? Our ONE AND ONLY NBA player has graduated and based on the current regime, the next one is not due in Raleigh for another 5-6 years.”

    You’re not a Pack fan…if your are, my 10 year old know more about basketball than you.

    GW verse Herb…I wouldn’t trade them and I’m sure anyone who gives a rats a$$ about players actually graduating wouldn’t either.

  24. PACDADDY 12/14/2005 at 12:21 AM #

    Packbackers…Thanks for you comment. I do want to make it clear, that I’m not critizing Texas and the job Barnes is doing…I’m only saying he plays in an inferior conference and should be able to win a few big games. I would be shamelessly bashing a solid program if I said Texas’ record sucked…if you know what I mean 😉

  25. Class of '74 12/14/2005 at 6:15 AM #

    Obviously the recent posts point out again the Herb backers are all about feelings and the facts are painful to their feelings. I still say the solution is a tougher OOC and the problem will resolve itself.

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