Stat of the Day: State 85 Maryland 69

= > State won for the 2nd consecutive year at Maryland after not winning in College Park since 1989.

= > State improves to 2-3 in the ACC and 12-6 overall.

= > Herb Sendek is now 5-17 against Maryland and 2-7 in College Park.

= > Maryland had won 10 straight games at the Comcast Center.

= > State last won two in a row at Maryland in Cole Fieldhouse in 1987 and ’88.

= > State entered the game ranked #116 in the RPI. The win propelled the Pack up to #94.

= > State’s win improved the Wolfpack’s Sagarin rating to #48.

= > Maryland entered Sunday’s contest with identical #24 ratings in both the RPI and Sagarin Ratings. Because of State’s poor rankings, the loss dropped the Terps to #43 in the RPI and #34 in the Sagarin.

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

12 Responses to Stat of the Day: State 85 Maryland 69

  1. David 01/24/2005 at 12:51 PM #

    And the Pack move into a tie for 6th in the league — and they’re tied with teams they have beaten (Ga. Tech, Maryland). Assuming Miami and Va. Tech slide a bit, State is in fine position to get healthy and make a run at 4th in the league — not what you’d want at the start of the season, but very safe NCAA tourney bid territory regardless of RPI ratings.

  2. JB34 01/24/2005 at 4:46 PM #

    As much as I expect Miami and VPI to fall back towards a more “normalized” performance, I equally expect GT to pick it up when Elder returns. Additionally, Maryland has a history of improving and responding to Gary Williams during a season.

    Therefore, even if Miami & VPI start to slide, I doubt State could get to 4th.

    I also respectfully disagree with your comment that getting to 4th gets us into the NCAA “regardless of RPI rankings”. We won’t make the dance just because we are 4th in the ACC if our RPI is too far off the map. However, generally speaking, if we were good enough to get to 4th, our RPI would rise accordingly.

    Based on GT & Maryland’s OOC scheduling and performance…we could tie for 4th with those two and not get a tourney bid if the conference was very top-heavy and our ACC record was 7-9 (or even 8-8) . Despite a head to head win against GT & Maryland, they would both have much better RPI’s than us AND would have adhered to the the selection committee’s mandate that they heavily consider OOC scheduling for bubble teams. We not only would have failed to comply by scheduling weak OOC, but also by performing poorly against that weak schedule, giving both of them a huge leg up on us.

  3. Alpha Wolf 01/25/2005 at 9:47 AM #

    The important thing is this — a road win helps offset the home loss to Duke. Remember what Valvano said — just get to 9-7 and get in the Dance — so we are not dead quite yet. With four incredibly tough games ahead, two against UNC and Wake, we absolutely must take care of business against the Clemson’s, FSU’s and VPI’s of the world.

  4. John 01/25/2005 at 9:56 AM #

    We will get a bid if we get to 8-8. Granted our RPI would probably get into the 50’s at 8-8. However, there is ZERO chance that an 8-8 team in this year’s conference is left out. Also, remember that a bubble team will have an easier first and second round game in the ACC tourney than normal. That will help with the perception of finishing strong.

  5. BJD95 01/25/2005 at 12:10 PM #

    I think being left out at 8-8 is a VERY realistic possibility. The St. John’s and West Virginia losses look very bad, and there is no corresponding decent win to offset them (Purdue is like 4-12). State, VT, FSU, and Miami would all need at least 9-7 to be assured of an NCAA berth, due to their OOC performance. Of course, NC State is the only team in that group that might win more than 7 ACC games (if VT wins 6, Seth Greenberg is your ACC COY). I think 7-9 or 8-8 is NC State’s most likely final ACC record, based on what I’ve seen.

  6. JB34 01/25/2005 at 1:57 PM #

    Let’s split the difference on assumptions about Georgia Tech and Maryland.

    Let’s assume GT rebounds to form with BJ Elder and Maryland continues to slide out of the NCAA. (They almost did this last year until their ACC tourney run).

    State could get to 8-8 in the ACC by winning the remaining 6 games:
    Jan 26 Florida St
    Jan 29 @Clemson
    Feb 5 Virginia
    Feb 16 Maryland
    Feb 26 Virginia Tech
    Mar 2 @ Virginia

    We could be 8-8 and have beaten ONE NCAA Tournament team (GT @ home) to compile a record of something in the neighborhood of 1-10 vs NCAA Tournament opponents. Add to that mix our election not to follow the Tournament committee’s suggestion of difficult OOC scheduling and I truly believe that 8-8 would require AT LEAST one win the ACC Tournament, if not more.

    That would create a scenario where in 8 of 9 years under Sendek that we enter the ACC Tournament needing at least one victory (if not more) to earn a NCAA berth. Un-friggin believable that this type of Bubble territory is so accepted.

  7. BJD95 01/25/2005 at 3:10 PM #

    Wow, I should have broken out each game like JB did. Now, I don’t see ANY way we don’t get to 8-8, unless we lose at Clemson or at home vs. Maryland.

  8. Trout 01/26/2005 at 5:04 PM #

    I dont think 8-8 gets NC State into the tournament. I really dont. A 9th win would have to include a win over GT or UNC/Wake, and that is what it will take.

    If, for some, reason, MD finishes 8-8, and NC State finished 9-7, and the ACC only gets 5 teams, I can see MD easily getting that spot over NC State, even if we have swept MD for the season.

    Look back a few years ago when UVA swept Carolina. Both were 9-7. UNC got the bid, UVA stayed home. The reason? One small factor was the ACC was weak that year. A more important factor was RPI.

  9. JB34 01/26/2005 at 6:22 PM #

    ^ AWESOME memory Trout!!

    And I TOTALLY agree with your perspective.

    Does anyone remember if FSU went to the Tourney en lieu of anyone else in the year that they went 6-10 in conference play and still danced? (About 5 years ago).

  10. John 01/27/2005 at 9:09 AM #

    probably a moot point now since we A) aren’t going to get to 8-8 and B) to get there we’d probably have to have a marquee victory but I still think the committee would look at winning a tourney game (which would probably be against a less than marquee team) as getting us over the hump.
    Unfortunately, I now almost hope we don’t get to 8-8 so we can end the Herb Sendek experiment.

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