I will lay out my bias up-front - I am a playoff guy. For reference, see my post from last December outlining what I believe to be a truly workable playoff system. This post - which I have been kicking around in my head for weeks - is designed to convince you why every fan of a power conference team should be wary of the current system. And why the ensuing “race to the bottom” that I predict could kill the goose that lays the proverbial golden eggs.
As you have no doubt noticed, college football polls are based largely inertia - not science, or even informed opinion. And the college football powers that be have stupidly continued to increase their influence, while diminishing (flawed, but still better) computer formulas that consider things like, say, who you beat. And whether you load up with seven or even eight home games. See the home cooking, cupcake-heavy OOC slates of Virginia Tech and Auburn (despite being burned by such a schedule when the formula gave more weight to computers). As I noted when the 12th game was added to the schedule, home games (or de-facto home games at “neutral” sites) should have been capped at 7. Watch for this to spread like wildfire as teams realize the revenue and record-padding potential, while greatly diluting September football (as SFN’s own TigerFan has already noted the past 2 weeks of this season). At least VT lost today, and won’t skate through a very weak 2006 ACC and into the national title picture. It would have been a travesty for an unbeaten Virginia Tech to be in the title game ahead of a one-loss team like LSU or the loser of Ohio State/Michigan.
But speaking of potential/likely travesties, the West Virginia Mountaineers lurk. Their “shining example” will likely lead to numerous copycats, all with the potential to destroy (or at least damage) college football as a spectator sport. Despite their consensus Top Ten status, you haven’t seen much of WVU on national TV - at least in prominent time slots. Wonder why? Check out this ridiculous excuse for a schedule. Note the two games against ranked teams, and one of those two (Rutgers) is only ranked due to their similar creampuff schedule (5 OOC games, only 2 against BCS opponents - perpetually futile UNC and Illinois). Despite playing in by far the weakest BCS conference, the Mountaineers’ best nonconference opponent is Maryland, which finished 5-6 in 2005, and looks even worse this year. It was also at home, of course.
So, what is the WVU formula? Instead of Fresno State’s “we’ll play anybody, anywhere” pledge, play nobody. Compile a nice 9 or 10-win season, so that (thanks to our old friend, inertia) you start the following season ranked. Maybe even in the Top 10 or Top 15. Then, continue to play nobody, so you climb slowly up the rankings as genuinely good teams lose to tougher competition. Finally, win the one legitimate game on the schedule you can’t really avoid (Louisville), and boom - you’re playing for the national championship. All of the tough 1-loss teams from the toughest conferences play meaningless exhibitions, while you play your second legitimate game for all the marbles. Could you imagine an NFL team playing only one game vs. teams other than, say, the Raiders, Titans, and 49ers - and then the Super Bowl? Unthinkable, but college football could see it this year. Because it wouldn’t be “fair” to rank a team with the loss ahead of an unbeaten.
Naturally, if and when this plays out, other BCS schools will adopt the same model, and further weaken the football product available for television. As the NBA has shown us, with weaker product comes weaker interest and ratings. But let there be no doubt - this is a race to the bottom that schools in the true power conferences can never win. It’s simply impossible for a Big Ten or SEC school to “out West Virginia West Virginia” - because their conference games will always be tougher. And the bogus system in place will continue to reward timidity, at the expense of those who compete on the highest level. Conference title games - which are good for the sport, fans, and revenues - will continue to place yet another hurdle in front of deserving national contenders. More risk for little reward.
The power conferences would dominate a 16-team playoff. And they wouldn’t have to worry about a September loss (or an early December one in a thrilling conference title game, a current risk that a West Virginia or Notre Dame never has to face) eliminating them from the championship picture becuase it’s so easy for a team like WVU in 2006 to not go undefeated. But don’t be surprised when systematic inertia keeps that from happening - at least not until college presidents face the specter of falling revenue. By then, it could be too late.
Late Notes:
Wanted to add some articles that are related to this and are definitely worth chronicling:
* ESPN has this article about scheduling and playoffs that is just fantastic.
I missed the original post last year and just saw it when it was linked today. I have long had the following idea about a workable playoff system, which I humbly submit is a bit better than the one posted by SFN:
1. 8 teams.
Why? Primarily because it mimics the number of BCS bowl teams prior to this year, and thus leaves the rest of the bowl system intact. Also because the driving reason for a playoff *should* be to ensure we crown the right champion… and it is unlikely that a team that does not qualify for the playoff in this system would have had a shot.
2. BCS conference champs get an automatic bid.
Why? Same as current BCS system. No reason to change it.
3. One wild card must be from outside BCS conferences.
Why? Keeps the Cinderella factor alive all season every year, and ensures there is at least one David vs. Goliath game every year. Also, from the flip side, provides more incentive to finish as the #1 seed. This also makes the regular season even more important to the BCS conference teams, as they can count on only one wild card per season. Note: Notre Dame does not enjoy special status, although they may well be in position to often fill this slot. But use of a committee should help to ensure that they earn it.
4. A committee is used to select the wild cards and to seed the teams.
Why? Because no formula, Sagarin ratings, etc., can automatically take all important factors into account. If the committee chooses to use BCS ranking formula, Sagarin ratings, etc., that is their choice. But they do not have to blindly follow any particular system. All the same reasons it is appropriate in basketball apply here. Also, it preserves a bit of the unknown until the final conference championship game is played, which should only add to the drama down the stretch of the regular season.
5. Higher seeds play at home in the first round.
Why? It is too much to expect fans to travel on three consecutive weekends. Also, this provides incentive for all contenders to impress the committee, via their scheduling and their play.
6. BCS bowl sites are used for the “Final 4″ games, with a rotation system used.
Why? Primarily to appease those bowl committees and to try to retain a bit of the old bowl tradition while still facilitating a needed playoff. The odd bowl out could still be played, as the “NIT” bowl… or it could just be skipped. Or instead of a rotation system, we could just choose to cut the Orange Bowl and always use the other three, simply rotating which is the title game. Or whatever.
That’s about it. Some of the commonly used arguments against a playoff system:
*Too many games for the kids (academically and/or physically).* Not really. All these kids would play a bowl game anyway. Only 4 teams will play more than the normal amount. And only 2 teams will play 2 extra games. And it is done at other levels of football. As for the academic side of it, the extra game(s) comes right at the start of a new semester at most schools, so it is doable.
*Will reduce the current emphasis on the regular season, which is what makes college football great.* On the contrary, the fact that at most 7 BCS conference teams can make it, with only one conference getting 2 teams, at least maintains the current sense of urgency. And the need to impress the committee for seeding purposes adds to it.
*Will take away from the other bowls.* Not so. Already there is a distinction made between the BCS bowls and non-BCS bowls. It would simply maintain that same distinction.
I am convinced that such a system would eclipse March Madness and be the most popular annual sports event other than possibly the Super Bowl.
Thoughts?
I agree that we need some type of playoff and I agree that the WVU schedule is weak this year. But to atribute the weak schedule to some contrived scheme to win a national championship is totally wrong.
When the meat of this schedule was put together eight or ten years ago. Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech were all in the Big East and I’m sure figured prominetly in the planning of the schedule. When those three teams pulled out three years ago, WVU had to scramble to fill those holes in their schedule. I doubt they found any power schools from the other BCS conferences who were lining up to volunteer to play in Morganton.
Boston College, Miami and Va. Tech may be a little down this year, but with them on that schedule four years ago it would have looked plenty tough.
When the 12th game opened up, WVU could have gone tough, and they didn’t. Plus, even if it was not a WVU “conspiracy”, others will see the end result and copy it.
An 8-team playoff is unfair for power conference teams. When a conference has 4 or 5 legitimate Top 10 teams (like the SEC this year), it should not be limited to 1 or 2 slots. 16 works for 1-AA, and is the minimum number to be fair to the big boys while giving a shot to the little guy.
16 is waaay too many. The only thing worse than an undefeated WV playing for the championship is a 9-3 team that gets in as the 15th or 16th seed winning it. Sure that could lead to tougher scheduling, but it would also lead to those games meaning a LOT less than they do now.
Look at the OSU-Texas games the past two years. One of the things that made those matchups so huge was the stakes: winner has the upper hand on a national title game appearance; loser is in big trouble. Oh, an Texas won last year and OSU may win this year - so the big names may see this trend and start moving in the opposite direction (towards scheduling a marquee game every year).
Usually at the end of the season you can cut the list of teams that have a legitimate claim to the national title to 4 or less; I’d be fine with a 4 team playoff at the end. And if a WVU with a pansy-ass schedule makes it every now and then into the “Final 4″, so what? They’ll probably get crushed, and if they win it, then they deserve it.
What I want to know is why the argument that a playoff system would not work? The amount of interest (and money) that would be generated from a playoff system would put the basketball playoffs to shame. Look at it this way, these small bowls that have 6-5 teams playing that can’t sell half of their tickets and why? Because both teams know the game is meaningless. Now, if the winner of that game advanced further in the playoff’s I guarantee you that every bowl game would be sold out. And the final game? I can’t even imagine what the ratings would be. So, in essance the Meinecke Car Bowl game of last year would have been a total sell out, tn ratings would have gone through the roof and scalpers probably would be demanding hundreds of dollars for tickets and the crowd would have been very much into the game to cheer State on to the next game. As it was the game was just an extra game and everyone knew it.
Steve
Nothing is going to kill college football.
After thinking about this and considering everything that’s been said, I like the eight team format the best. The six BCS conference champions get automatic bids and the other two go to champions of the other conference or an independant.
As for highly ranked teams in a power conference like the SEC is this year, if they don’t win their conference they do not deserve to play for the national championship. If LSU beats Auburn during the regular season and Florida in the conference championship game, they shouldn’t have to face them again in a national championship game. Also this would leave some highly ranked non coference champions for match ups in other bowl games.
The eight team format would encourage more competitive OOC scheduling because the overall record doesn’t mean anything. Teams could schedule competitive OOC games without worrying that a September lost could cost them a shot at the national championship.
I think a sixteen team play off would probably totally destroy the existing bowl format, and there are too many people who for some very good reasons don’t want that to happen.
But having said all that, there may not be enough support to get even the eight team format in the short term. A four team format with one playing four and two playing three in the existing BCS format would be an improvement. The national championship game could be scheduled the week after the final bowl games.
This would keep everything we have intact, add a blockbuster revenue game and get us closer to a real national champion. Then when this is sucess for a year or two we can say, “This works so good maybe we should expand it to eight teams.”
Talk about inertia! In today’s Coach’s Poll, Virginia Tech is ranked AHEAD of Georgia Tech. One day after th Jackets put up 38 in Blacksburg. And BC! WOW, I guess after they visit Blackburg, they will either solidify their 25th spot or fall out. I’m sure glad that 15th ranked Clemson scheduled (and beat) the powerhouse that is the 1-3 La Tech (they beat Nicholls St) this week to carry the banner for the ACC as the premier conference in college football.
The ACC’s only hope of having a National Title contender this year is Wake Forest, so I’m glad they beat Liberty this week to give them some street credibility. Unfortunately, they have 4 ranked teams ahead of them, Clemson, FSU, VT, and BC. At 15, 17, 21, and 25, at least for now.
10 of the 12 ACC teams don’t have a win over a non-conference opponent from a BCS conference!!! Only VT and WF. They Big East has 6 of 8 that actually have a victory over a BCS non-conference team. Only South Florida and Cincy don’t.
If WVU were to make it to and win the National Championship, they will have beaten 2 top 10, if not 2 top 5 teams that will include the #1 team. Likewise, if Louisville were to sweep, they will have defeated 2 top 5 teams, including the #1 team. Any team that does that deserves the National Championship trophy. The only other potential NC contenders that can say that are Ohio State and whoever makes it out of the SEC.
The amount of money that would be generated from a playoff system would put the basketball playoffs to shame.
This claim is often made, but is not based on anything real. Companies pay alot of money to have their name attached to a bowl game…especially a BCS bowl game. You will start off your playoff system by losing this sponsorship money. So the blanket statement, with no supporting evidence, is not convincing.
As far as selling out the playoff games….I’m not convinced here either. The travel plans would be substantially more difficult than for the normal home game schedule. Some schools could always guarantee that their allotment would be sold out….but how many?
I am not against a playoff system. I just have never seen a proposal that will generate more money than the present system. Until you can guarantee more money….then it’s just not even worth discussing.
I’m sure some people in college FB like the arguments over who is #1 or #2 when it’s not clear cut. In every other sport , everything is settled on the field/court/ice so there is no controversy.
The TV networks probably have to really push for a playoff for it to get done and they probably have to offer a lot more money.
IF IT WORKS FOR THE 1AA, WHY THE HELL, BESIDES $$$$, WON’T IT WORK FOR 1A??? THE NCAA….THE BCS CONFERENCES…..MORE WHORES AT THE CAPITALIST GANGBANG!!
1AA teams only play 11 regular season games. Their regular season ends this year on Nov, 18. The BCS conference champiopnship games generate more television revenue than 1AA gets all year. To do it like 1AA does each team would lose the revenue from one regular game plus the BCS conference championship revenue. Then there is all that bowl money.
The money from football and basketball supports all the other non revenue sports. If we dropped the non revenue sports we would have put women on the football ane basketball to be in compliance with Chapter 9.
Wow I need to start using my text editor.
…we would have to put women on the football and basketball teams…
And that should be “Title IX” not Chapter 9.
A play-off system would guarantee a champion, it would not guarantee the “right” team would win or the best team would win - think NCSU in ‘83 or Villanova in ‘84.
If the purpose of a playoff is to improve the product and popularity of college football, I say eliminate the championship in football altogether. The bowls would be popular because your team was playing.
Want to be fair? Let all teams practice until the bowls are over. The blue Balls Bowl in Boise might lose its popularity for some teams.
College football is following NASCAR’s is lead with commercialism. The Chase — comparable to what is proposed as the playoff system — has a side effect of “irreleventizing” racing for some teams during the Chase. NASCAR is commericalism run riot — the JC Penny White Sale Pontiac hit a Quaker State, That’s one tough motor oil, slick and slammed into the Sakrete concrete wall and had to be towed to the Zagnut infield — and College football is not far behind.
“the JC Penny White Sale Pontiac hit a Quaker State, That’s one tough motor oil, slick and slammed into the Sakrete concrete wall and had to be towed to the Zagnut infield”
Someone must be a huge John Boy and Billy fan
Yeah, but not recently. I had to pull over whenever they aired this guy. This red-necked Pack fan could wreck his pick-up truck driving and listening to Marvin.
If you go to a playoff system, half of the teams in Division I football might as well give up their program altogether. It would be a complete waste of money.
However, there will be a playoff in college football….the day that someone puts together a business plan that shows that it would generate more money for the TV networks and another group of people review it, look at the numbers and say, “Yep…we’re missing out.”
The TV executives want MORE games, not fewer games. The three hours of the day that get chewed up by a football program are three hours that FSN and ESPN and ESPN2 and NBC and ABC and CBS *don’t* have to come up with original programming for.
The cost of putting the Nevada-Boise St. football game on Friday night is minimal. Nobody watches TV on Friday night. You put it on ESPN and suddenly, you’ve got an audience you can sell to advertisers.
The great thing about the bowl system is that stations like ESPN and FSN and other smaller networks can gobble up those minor games and completely fill in the last three weeks of December with basketball and football games.
I doubt very seriously that Mickey Mouse would be willing to give that up.
Let’s say that you do go to a playoff system. Let’s say that an early #2 vs. #7 game features Texas against Auburn. Good game. Is the audience for that game going to be bigger than it would be if that was a regular season game? Or the Cotton Bowl?
A great example of the ‘wvu’ scheduling trend is Louisville canceling on us, instead opting for the easier win, the Tarheels.
Mickey (ABC) is no longer involved in the BCS TV - Fox now has the rights
I don’t see how a playoff system could possibly not get MONSTER ratings.
I agree that a playoff system would and could work… and one reason I really hope it does is for those of you who keep talking crap about teams like WV being in the top 10. Sure they dont play anybody… but damn, after they have dominated everyone they have played so far(with the exception of an excellent game versus another team that you all count out as pie- ECU), why should they not be a NC calliper team? I guess it all comes downt o the Louisville game, right?! I mean, if they win… they should be in the title game. I am tired of reading all this crap about their schedule… They have undeniable talent…
and would everyone get off WF’s ass already!!! they are not a top 25 team at all, and we will all see that soon. VERY soon.
^and either is BC!!!! it makes me sick that they are still ranked.
“I don’t see how a playoff system could possibly not get MONSTER ratings.”
Monster ratings aren’t the issue. It’s not going to get super bowl numbers. It will probably get a little bit better numbers than the bowl system produces for the Jan. 1 day games. The college football audience is what it is. The Super Bowl gets people who aren’t football viewers to watch it. The college football playoff won’t do that.
What the networks would be giving up is the volume of games that the bowls give them.
For me personally…I wouldn’t watch many games in the playoffs. I’ll watch NC State when they’re in a bowl game, but if they aren’t playing, I’m an extremely casual observer.
I imagine a significant part of the college football audience would simply disappear from the sport completely. My father-in-law is a lifetime supporter of Marshall University football. He knew a bunch of the guys who died in the 1971 crash (he served as an advisor for the forthcoming movie on that event), he’s always had season-tickets, he goes to every game, home and away. But he’s said plenty of times that if Marshall isn’t playing, he hardly every watches. I know plenty of people who are like that with their college team.
Furthermore, I would be willing to bet that a sizeable chunk of the college football audience would probably just move from college football to pro football. Half of the schools in D1 would never have a single thing to ever play for. Probably 80 percent of the schools wouldn’t have any reason to give a crap after the first week of the season and 90-95 percent wouldn’t care after about week five.
The second half of the season would be utterly meaningless to the overwhelming majority of schools that kept competing at a D1 level (and that number would drop considerably) every single year.
If I were the AD at Dook and a playoff system was in place, I’d probably talk a lot in ACC meetings about dropping football completely. I imagine Wake would do the same. We’d both be trying to convince the ACC that doing should be allowed without impacting our standing in the conference.
I imagine the college football landscape would be a pretty dreadful place until the playoffs began. it would be like hockey and the NBA….hardly anyone would care.
Say what you want about how the NFL wants everyone to go 8-8. There are 18 regular season weeks in an NFL season. NFL fans care about every single week. There are significant games every single week. Even in the last week of the season, you have 10 teams that are still in contention for the playoffs.
You won’t have that in college football. You’ll have the direct opposite.
Ohio State and Mich. made careers out of having only one, maybe two meaningful games a season. It’s only in the recent past that the Big Ten has more than two good teams in it.
Same goes for Nebraska and OU of the old Big Eight conference.
A playoff in college football is a bad idea.
Redux…
How would adding a playoff improve football in September? If the road to making the playoff is winning your conference championship, then why risk injury, fatigue etc. by playing any good teams out of conference?
Some interesting conversations here, but here’s a couple of my random thoughts on this discussion:
1) A playoff would probably actually hurt scheduling. If they’ve got a shot an 8 team playoff - why on earth would Auburn, VaTech, or anyone else schedule someone who is going to eliminate them from the hunt w/ a loss. Right now, at least they can be excluded from the national championship based on their schedule.
2) A college football playoff would probably be the biggest money generating machine in college sports history.
3) A college football playoff - depending on how it is deployed, could really cause a decline in popularity of the sport for the NC States, Michigan States, Arizona’s, etc of the world. Think of baskeball attendance if you are a likely NIT’er.
Playoff would be nice. One thing for is for sure other than the BCS bowls the rest of ‘weedeater bowls’ don’t mean a thing.
Those of you that travel to Orlando every year to support State are some damn good fans and I guess like to enjoy a few drinks. Didn’t they even put state in Orlando for the NCAA’s a few years back?
The bowl system has a certain air of uncertainty and never knowing for sure, that has been there forever, always adds to the debate, and suits amateur athletics just fine.
I don’t care too much for professional sports anymore. All of the pitiful attitudes, along with the media feeding frenzy highlighting those personalities, mid/every season trades, and free agency have killed it for me. I rather pull for the people playing the game year after year, instead of a logo on the side of a helmet/uniform, filled up with the next warm body in it.
I guess a lot of you can’t remember when even the best players stayed around and played out their eligibility in college for all four years. That’s when you could pull for a relative unknown who went on to develop further than anyone thought possible because of the superior support around him. Now we have every kid and his brother turning pro after a year or two of college athletics, leaving the younger and younger players to fend for themselves every year.
It’s all done in the name of progress. That’s for the professional leagues, of course. I think the professional game is already killing off college sports in general, so I won’t be wishing to enable them further or model anything after their examples.
^When I say “killing off” up there, I do not mean in popularity, but with respects to the quality of what it once was.
“One thing for is for sure other than the BCS bowls the rest of ‘weedeater bowls’ don’t mean a thing. ”
Not true. Not true at all. The players enjoy them and a lot of fans enjoy them. The last NC State bowl game I missed was the Copper bowl. They are a fun time and good excuse to travel and mingle w/ like minded fans. If you are a college football fan of a team, they are typically a heck of a vacation. If you are a player, it’s your secondary goal. It’s an achievement.
“Those of you that travel to Orlando every year to support State are some damn good fans and I guess like to enjoy a few drinks. Didn’t they even put state in Orlando for the NCAA’s a few years back?”
I don’t know about that, but I had a fun time in Orlando for Philip’s senior year. I had a good time in Charlotte last year, and a good time in Jax in 2002-2003.
Like I said, I’m just not sure how a playoff system would benefit NC State.
redfred~ I can say I agree that pro sports is killing college sports….
especially these media type morons that actully think that college athletes should be “compensated” for the revenue they bring in for the schools. THAT IS THE DUMBEST THING I HAVE EVER HEARD!
of course athletes like Reggie Bush and Matt Leinhart would think this…. but there are actully OTHER PEOPLE who agree?!?!?! its sickening… really.
I agree with a playoff system, but I want it to include the top 128 teams in the country. That way we would have an outside shot at getting one of our local teams qualified.
Not true. Not true at all. The players enjoy them and a lot of fans enjoy them. The last NC State bowl game I missed was the Copper bowl. They are a fun time and good excuse to travel and mingle w/ like minded fans. If you are a college football fan of a team, they are typically a heck of a vacation. If you are a player, it’s your secondary goal. It’s an achievement.
You are correct should I say other than the players and handful (in relative terms) of fans that enjoy the weedeater bowl game experience they mean nothing. No one that didn’t have a team in the Charlotte Bowl last year knows who the hell played in it and that there was even a bowl game played in Charlotte. I don’t even remeber who we played last year something like Southeastern Central Florida State A&M.
The Thursday night game against FSU will be more exciting to me than any nonBCS bowl game State may play in unless we happen to play a major school like ND again.
A playoff would probably actually hurt scheduling. If they’ve got a shot an 8 team playoff - why on earth would Auburn, VaTech, or anyone else schedule someone who is going to eliminate them from the hunt w/ a loss.
This doesn’t make sense. If the conference champion is guaranteed a spot in the playoff, then the non-conference games lose importance and an OOC loss would have little impact on reaching the play-off.
In a 16-team playoff, it helps to play a good schedule b/c a tough OOC loss won’t hurt you in the selection formula, and a win will help dramatically. Plus, you still have the automatic berth to shoot for no matter what. One of the reasons I like 16 more than 8.
I also think 16 is a manageable number for a program like NC State tio aspire to. That’s a level we could reach (under the right leadership) at least once in awhile. And the minor bowls would still exist for the other years, though with an NIT feel (which some bowls already have - remember the interest/attandance for the NC State/Kansas game?).
I also think this is the only way an NC State-like program (middle of the pack program in a power conference) ever has even a remote chance to win the national championship. Get to the tourney, play well the first game or two and advance, then anything can happen. Playing in a power conference will make an NC State better prepared for the rigorous competition than, say, West Virginia.
The current system benefits only teams that dominate weaker conferences, or the elite 2/3 teams in an extremely shallow conference. It’s death to teams in the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC - whose programs are the bulk of what makes college football good. Why shouldn’t the system (in terms of determining a champion) benefit them, instead of primarily benefitting the unbeaten, however untested?
^^ and ^ Yes, but you’ve both side stepped the reall reason why teams would not schedule tough OOC games if there was a playoff. As we State fans know all too well, injuries and depth are a huge part of success in college football, so why would any team hoping to reach a playoff schedule any tough team ooc? You don’t need the RPI or anything because your road to the playoff is through winning your conference, so why schedule tough OCC games? Maybe for exposure or to help with recruiting, to help toughen you up? MAybe, but these reasons will be put aside against the need to stay healthy…ESPECIALLY if you hope to factor in 2-4 ORE games in the playoff.
A playoff would lead to FEWER good games in Sept, not more.
Take the example of Ohio State. Due to playing and beating Texas OOC, they could lose 2 - maybe even 3 - Big Ten games and still qualify for the tournament. With one loss, they still get first round games in the first and probably second rounds. Had they lost - no damage to their standing whatsoever.
“In a 16-team playoff, it helps to play a good schedule b/c a tough OOC loss won’t hurt you in the selection formula, and a win will help dramatically. Plus, you still have the automatic berth to shoot for no matter what. One of the reasons I like 16 more than 8.”
Why? Is Auburn more likely to get a bid going 10-1 or 8-3? Better yet, are they more likely to get a high seed going 10-1 or 9-2? I agree that 16 is better than 8, but the same problem still exists if you are in a power conference - what’s more likely to get me a playoff bid an 8-3 record or a 9-2 record?
“I also think 16 is a manageable number for a program like NC State tio aspire to. That’s a level we could reach (under the right leadership) at least once in awhile. And the minor bowls would still exist for the other years, though with an NIT feel (which some bowls already have - remember the interest/attandance for the NC State/Kansas game?).”
16 for us is certainly better than 8. Of course, I can’t think of anytime since the BCS has been implemented that we would have qualified. Regarding the NIT feel, the big difference is that ANY non-playoff game would have a NIT feel. I predict you’ll see NIT like attendance for the bowls which enjoy a pretty good feel today…Gator, Holiday, etc….
“I also think this is the only way an NC State-like program (middle of the pack program in a power conference) ever has even a remote chance to win the national championship. Get to the tourney, play well the first game or two and advance, then anything can happen. Playing in a power conference will make an NC State better prepared for the rigorous competition than, say, West Virginia.”
I don’t think so - these games will become attrition contests. One of the biggest problems that we face right now is depth at key positions - an extended playoff season only exasperates that. Think of it this way, since the NCAA b’ball pool expanded to 64 teams, how many true underdogs have won a national championship?
“The current system benefits only teams that dominate weaker conferences, or the elite 2/3 teams in an extremely shallow conference. It’s death to teams in the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC - whose programs are the bulk of what makes college football good. Why shouldn’t the system (in terms of determining a champion) benefit them, instead of primarily benefitting the unbeaten, however untested?”
Good point, but the problem will still be this -only 16 teams will go in your system - that basically leaves 10 teams from the 6 BCS conferences and all the mid-majors fighting for those spots. Talk about “a computer deciding the national championship”…
First of all, Great Post.
The bowls don’t mean anything anyway. Even the BCS Championship game doesn’t mean anything. Just look at 2003, USC was stilled crowned national champs, and they didn’t even play in the game. How could the bowls have any less meaning?
A playoff would not only give credibility to the championship game, it would have little or no impact on the “meaning� of these other bowls. Given an eight-team playoff, there is no reason we couldn’t maintain the current bowls in addition to the playoff. Who wins the Houston Bowl, the New Orleans Bowl, or any sort of lawn tool bowl isn’t going to matter whether or not there is a playoff. Other than the fans of the teams playing, no one really cares about any of the December bowls now, and that’s not going to change with a playoff.
As far as the regular season not meaning anything or a playoff having an effect on scheduling, teams aren’t getting any points by having a tough schedule now. West Virginia’s in the top five! No one from a BCS conference has a schedule as weak as theirs. They don’t even have to win impressively. East Carolina shut down their running game, and their defense hasn’t been impressive all year, yet they are still ranking in the top 5.
The key to winning the national title now is having a good season the previous year so you come in with a high preseason ranking and then playing the biggest cupcake schedule possible. The inertia in the polls is incredible. How is USC number two? They only led a horrible Arizona team by 7 into the 4th quarter, and the game against a horrible Washington State team came down to the final play. Both of those teams were absolutely throttled by LSU and Auburn.
The number of games in the season is irrelevant as well. With an 8 game playoff, we’re talking about at most adding two games to the season. The NCAA allows teams to add a game if they travel to Hawaii; so you’d think they allow teams to add games to have a true championship. Only the final two teams would actually add two games, and I think everyone involved with whoever those two institutions were would be happy to make the extra sacrifice.
If we do have a playoff, we’d have to come up with some fair way to determine who gets in. BCS conference champions are almost a certainty. The other two spots should be at large but should not be automatically turned over to the mid-majors. Last year, Ohio State was technically a runner up in its conference, but certainly merited playoff consideration. VPI last year would also have been a good candidate for a playoff as would have LSU, Auburn, and ND.
A playoff is no panacea, but it would be much better than what we have now.
“2) A college football playoff would probably be the biggest money generating machine in college sports history.
3) A college football playoff - depending on how it is deployed, could really cause a decline in popularity of the sport for the NC States, Michigan States, Arizona’s, etc of the world. Think of baskeball attendance if you are a likely NIT’er.”
Those two statements directly contradict one another. It’s the decline in popularity that would drive down the eventual payoff of a tournament.
re: “« ACC in NFLHow Inertia and the BCS Could Kill College Football”
Preach it, brother! Preach it!
With a playoff, coaches would focus on two things: staying healthy and winning their conference championship. Playing any tough OOC team is contrary to the first goal and irrelevent to the second. As a result, we would see fewer good games in Sept, not more.
^westwolf
that would assume that only conference champs got in and there was no room for any at large teams. Certainly in a 16 team format there would be at large spots and probably in an 8 team format there would at least be the possibility of a BCS at large spot much like the current selection process for the BCS bowls.
^Good point.
Those two statements directly contradict one another. It’s the decline in popularity that would drive down the eventual payoff of a tournament.
Actually, they don’t. I don’t think you’d see the interest wane for college football as a whole. What I do think would happen is that for schools like NC State, Michigan, Oregon State, Arizona, et al, you’d see a lot more empty stadiums. I watch a lot of the bowls, and I’d damn sure watch a playoff. However, take this year for instance. If you look at a proposed 8 team or 16 team playoff, we’re still alive. If we lose Thursday, that’s likely over - and you know it. What would attendance be like for a wolfpack team w/ a 7-3 record going into it’s final game?
Another thing to think about - is anyone going to go a bowl game if it means missing a playoff game?
I don’t know the answers to these questions.
To me, at it’s heart, the heated desire for a playoff isn’t really demanded by those who are actually buying tickets to college football games - we’ve been doing for several years w/ the knowlege that there is no playoff game. Before anything so fundamental is changed, we should probably ask ourselves why Division 1A college football is so popular and would a playoff jeopardize that?
First of all, it’s not like West Virginia asked for their schedule. If you remember, WVU has to scramble to fill their schedule when Miami, Virginia Tech and BC left the Big East. Second, maybe it’s not such a cupcake schedule…looks like the Big East is kicking the ACC’s butt all over the field this year.
We already have a playoff in college football…loose 1 game an you’re probably out. Loose 2 and you are definately out. If West Virginia runs the table, they’ll have to play the #1 or #2 team in the country. And if they win that game, then they won the playoff and deserve to be the national champs.
Maybe if the ACC wasn’t so watered down, you wouldn’t be crying over West Virginia’s success and you’d actually have a chance to win your own conference BCS bid.
acc - What if a 2 of 3 teams between Ohio State, Auburn, and USC run the table. Where do you think you end up?
The WVU yall are talking about is the same one that beat SEC champs UGA in the Sugar bowl last year. If a team does that, I’d say they have the right to start out pretty high in the polls, inertia or not.
Probably 3rd.
tooyoungtoremember…
a Sugar Bowl that was practically a home game for Georgia!
WV deserves all credit they get…
they have had one bad game against a good run defense in ECU…. of course a lot of you dopes would look past that defense just because they are a Conf-USA team….. but whatever.
Actually, they’ll get overlooked because they are only going to play 2 top 25 teams - one of whom is Rutgers. Compare their schedule to tOSU’s or Auburn’s.
does that make them any less talented?
Statistically, at 23-9, the Big East has the worst non-conference record of any BCS conference. Versus IA competition only, the Big East is tied for worst with the Big 12 at 60%.
Head to head with the ACC, the Big East is 4-3 with
WVU over Maryland
UL over Miami
Pitt over UVA
Rutgers over UNC
And losses…
Wake over UConn
Wake over Syracuse
VPI over Cincinnati
Other than UL over Miami, which games are really either surprising, upsets, or impressive?
There is no doubt that WVU was screwed by the conference realignment, but when we’re talking national title game, they are no less screwed by the system than California, Tennessee, LSU, Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma, or any other school with a loss that actually had a solid early season opponent on the schedule.
Though their easy schedule isn’t totally WVU’s fault, if they make the NTG it sends a message to everyone that strength of schedule doesn’t matter.
You can’t base a team’s ranking on one game, especially one game from the previous season. Yes they beat Georgia last year, but you can’t throw out the unimpressive performances from this year.
^ packpigskinfan23
ECU ranks 94th in total defense and 111th in rush defense after playing Navy, UAB, Memphis, and WVU. They have a good rush defense compared to who?
well the stopped the WVU rush offense who going into that game was 2nd I believe in the nation…. so, I dont know… maybe you didnt watch the game… but they looked damn impressive to me.
Here’s my beef, stated simply and reasonably for our WVU visitors. In order to play for the national championship, the Florida Gators must win games at Tennessee, vs. Alabama, vs. LSU, at Auburn, vs. Georgia, at Florida State, and at a neutral site vs. LSU or Auburn again.
West Virginia has to beat Louisville. That’s it.
Now, some folks have claimed that a 1-loss Florida would get the nod over an unbeaten WVU team. Personally, I’ll believe it when I see it. And for the Gators to win 5 or 6 of 7 on that Murderers’ Row would be more impressive than WVU going undefeated.
So, Florida contributes a great deal to college football by playing numerous “can’t miss”, nationally televised games, drawing huge audiences and justifying the mega-TV money. West Virginia plays one marquee Thursday nighter. And just look what reward Florida will reap for their trouble - a meaningless exhibition bowl game. Why should the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC stand for that?
And, for the record, I’m not saying for certain that UF would beat WVU head-to-head. I just think they should have more equitable paths to playing for all the marbles. Only then are we REALLY settling it on the field.
I would also congratulate our visitors for noticing that the ACC this year is playing down almost to the level of the Big East…EVERY year.
^Fair enough packpigskinfan23
Admittedly, I did not watch the game and am just going off the stats; so I’ll take your word for it that ECU’s defense looked good. However, it is unfortunate that we have to even debate the merits of WVU based on East Carolina.
BJD95- you make a viable argument… but what if USC made it to the NTG this year over a one lose Auburn… that would be just as disgusting… they play in a “cupcake confrence” as well.
all I am saying is that I think WV proved last year that they deserve a chance… of course we shouldnt take last year into account on this year, but without a playoff system teams are ALWAYS going to get screwed over… unfortunatly for WV it just might be them year after year…. I think if they go without a loss they should be given some concideration.