Gottfried Justifiably on the Hot Seat

After last season’s 5-13 conference record, the ACC media and fans of NC State were expecting this year’s team to compete in the top half of the ACC and at a minimum make the NCAA tournament. Some people(me) had even higher expectations like spending most of the season ranked in the top 25 and competing for a top 6 seed come Selection Sunday. Afterall, this was year 6. Gott has his assistant coaches in place and his roster stocked with his guys.

Unfortunately, the season hasn’t gone as expected. Heading into tonight’s game against FSU, the team sits at 3-8 in conference play. We have 7 games left on the schedule and we are likely underdogs in each game(Kenpom). There is a distinct possibility that we won’t see another win this regular season. There has been “hot seat” talk on various NC State message boards, but generally there hasn’t been much discussion of Gottfried’s future at State elsewhere. But having gone 8-21(.275) in conference play over the last two seasons it got me thinking how that compares to previous NC State coaches who were all under major pressure at similar stages of their tenure at NC State. Would the data suggest/justify discussion of whether Mark Gottfried should get a 7th season as the NC State head coach?

The following numbers are the conference records of Les Robinson, Sidney Lowe, Herb Sendek, and Mark Gottfried for what I consider comparable timeframes to Gott’s last two years:

-Les Robinson(Year 5 & 6): 7-25 (.219)
-Herb Sendek (Year 4 & 5): 11-21 (.344)
-Herb Sendek (Year 5 & 6): 14-18 (.438), 1 NCAA
-Sidney Lowe (Year 4 & 5): 10-22 (.313)
-M. Gottfried(Year 5 & 6): 8-21 (.275)

-I picked two different time frames for Sendek because everyone can remember the pressure he was under during year 4 & 5, but I also wanted to put his record up for year 5 & 6 to see how each coach compares after having 6 years to build the program.

-The good news for Mark Gottfried is that even if he loses the final 7 games this year, his 8-28 record and .222 winning percentage would surpass Les Robinson’s final two years. What a relief!

-If Gottfried goes 7-0 down the stretch, then his ACC record of 15-21(.417) will still be worse than Herb Sendek during his 5th and 6th season.

-Gottfried must go 4-3 the rest of the way to finish 12-24(.333) to exceed Sidney Lowe’s final two seasons. Is that going to happen?

-Gottfried needs 5 wins(13-23, .361) to do better than Herb Sendek’s 4th and 5th season. Remember how much pressure was on AD Lee Fowler to fire Herb Sendek? Only a 5 player recruiting class(with at least 4 of them committed in the Fall) that included a program changing recruit in Julius Hodge kept that from happening. How is Gottfried’s recruiting class looking?

Based on those numbers, I think it can be justified that Gottfried’s job is in serious jeopardy. But wait…what about Gottfried’s 1st 4 seasons? Should’t that buy him some more time?

-Sendek was 46-34(.575) over his final 5 seasons. Gottfried currently sits at 38-45(.457) over his last 5 seasons.
-Sendek had 5 NCAA bids and 1 Sweet 16 over his final five seasons. Gottfried has 3 NCAA bids currently(maybe a 4th this year) and 1 Sweet 16 over each coach’s last 5 seasons.
-Sendek finished T-3rd, 4th, 2nd, T-6th, and 4th in ACC play. Gottfried has finished T-4th, 7th, T-6th, 13th, and ? over his most recent 5 years.

For Sendek even with a better overall winning percentage than Gottfried, more NCAA bids, and better conference finishes the pressure continued to mount over his final 5 seasons in Raleigh. After spending much of his final season in the top 25(will Gott ever do that?) a late season collapse convinced Herb Sendek to reset his clock in the desert at Arizona St. It made sense for everyone involved. In my opinion, Sendek’s seat was justifiably hot after his 10th season despite better results than Mark Gottfried.

Now for those supporters of Coach Gottfried that are going to point out that I didn’t include Gott’s 1st year in the Sendek most recent 5 year comparison, I would argue that his first year results on the backs of multiple all-ACC players(3 to be exact) he inherited aren’t a great measure of whether Gottfried should continue as our head coach. But if you insist on including his 1st season, then let’s look at a comparison of overall records:

-Sendek’s overall ACC record was 72-88 (.450). Gottfried’s currently stands at 47-52 (.474). The two rosters the coaches inherited were nowhere close to equal however setting Sendek is a major hole his first 3 years.
-For Gottfried to finish his 6th season with a better conference record than Sendek, he must go at least 1-6 to finish 48-58(.453). In other words, Gottfried’s conference winning percentage is nearly identical to Sendek’s winning percentage that had him underfire for the most of the last 1/2 of his career at State.

But for both coaches…aren’t the more recent seasons more telling as far as determining whether or not each coach should have been fired?

-Sendek went 17-15 (.531) in ACC play, made the NCAA tournament twice winning 3 games, and reached 1 Sweet 16 in his final two seasons in Raleigh.
-Gottfried currently sits at 8-21(.276). At this point, it appears extremely unlikely he will have a single NCAA bid let alone advance in the NCAA tournament.

These numbers and comparisons suggest that Gottfried has a lot on the line over the final 7 games of the season. His horrible records over his final two seasons have overshadowed the success he had early in his tenure and in my opinion have Gottfried’s seat scorching hot. I didn’t want this to be an emotional entry after a devastating loss, but instead a look at the situation based on performance and how similar performances by previous coaches would have been viewed/handled by our fans and the leaders at NC State. Hopefully this puts the data from previous years into perspective and will add to the discussion of Mark Gottfried’s future at NC State beyond this season.

16-17 Basketball General Mark Gottfried NC State NC State Baseball

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This topic contains 101 replies, has 36 voices, and was last updated by  bill.onthebeach 4 days, 20 hours ago.

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  • #116722

    Daily Update
    Keymaster

    After last season’s 5-13 conference record, the ACC media and fans of NC State were expecting this year’s team to compete in the top half of the ACC a
    [See the full post at: Gott Justifiably on the Hot Seat]

    #116724

    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    Perfect example of cherry picking your stats to fit your narrative.

    I’m not arguing for or against keeping Gott, but this is sleazy work.

    #116725

    Rick
    Keymaster

    I’m not arguing for or against keeping Gott, but this is sleazy work.

    Who are you kidding? You have been arguing for Gott since he got here. If you have an argument by all means make it instead of just criticizing the work of someone else.

    #116726

    WolfWiz11
    Participant

    Well, this comparison is also slightly problematic because the ACC looks nothing like it used to. Maryland left and we adopted Louisville, Cuse, Pitt, and ND.

    #116728

    WolfWiz11
    Participant

    Full disclosure, i want Gott gone; actually emailed Yow and received a response from her assistant the other day.

    #116729

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    Just because the conference shuffled around doesn’t mean our expectations should be lowered. I mean, we’re looking at ACC cellar dwellar records.

    #116730

    choppack1
    Participant

    Funny – once switched from a playing style that was more plodding, physical and athletic to one that emphasized skills – Sendek enjoyed success and for all of his faults, I got the impression he had a plan – and did a decent job executing it. Even his 10th year – which as you correctly note – fell apart towards the end – was a testament to this process as the team went 10-6 and won in the round of 64 in the NCAAs.

    The next year looked daunting, but who knows how it would have turned out with him at the helm.

    OTOH – with Gott – every year it seems like we are throwing a lineup together and you just don’t know what we’ll have. He has proven successful at assembling talent – but that’s only half the battle.

    He is losing this other half. You want to know your prior year’s reserves will be this year’s starters. We actually saw Warren, and even Vandenberg do this. We saw Cat take it to the next level.

    The turnover under Gott has been so extreme that we have really lost out on the Cam, Scooters, Cliff Crawford’s, CJ Williams, Marcus Melvin’s of the world.

    #116731

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    It’s always interesting to see a numerical argument. Even accounting for a powerful season, what he’s crapped out the past two seasons are Sid/Les-worthy. Embarrassing.

    #116732

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Gottfried has 3 NCAA bids currently(maybe a 4th this year) and 1 Sweet 16.

    Isn’t it four bids and 2 S-16s?

    Bids – 2012 – 2015
    S-16 – 2012, 2015

    #116733

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Oh, and HWSNBN still sucks. What we have here is just a different kind (faster) of implosion.

    Time only moves forward, and wrong guy is wrong guy. The market has proven us right with everyone with thrown overboard. We just need to get the right man here.

    #116734

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Gottfried has 3 NCAA bids currently(maybe a 4th this year) and 1 Sweet 16.

    Isn’t it four bids and 2 S-16s?

    Yes. That’s what bought him the mulligan year.

    #116735

    WolfWiz11
    Participant

    Just because the conference shuffled around doesn’t mean our expectations should be lowered. I mean, we’re looking at ACC cellar dwellar records.

    Sure. Just thought it was appropriate to say that to give Gott all the credit he deserves. The problem is, 6 years in, it’s clear his early successes were miracle runs.

    #116737

    packbackr04
    Participant

    N&O reports BJ & GOTT had words at practice. BJ suspended for FSU game. No traveling.

    love him or hate him, Anya has been a Wolfpacker through and through. This is not going well for Gott.

    #116739

    StateRed44
    Participant

    Barring the miraculous, he’s not doing nearly good enough for it to even be a hard question. If we care about our program in the least, a change will have to be made. The coaching and effort are noticeably poor. It’s at an unacceptable level.

    #116742

    choppack1
    Participant

    Perfect example of cherry picking your stats to fit your narrative.

    I’m not arguing for or against keeping Gott, but this is sleazy work.

    How so? These are Gott’s last 2 years. Granted, the year isn’t over yet and the ACC is extra tough. Of course, some might say “other coaches had a tough schedule too pal!”

    Seriously though – he is in Year 6 and his results have tailed off – just like they did at Bama. This development shouldn’t surprise anyone with an IQ above 80 since he wasn’t fired from Alabama for his off court issues alone.

    #116745

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    The problem is, 6 years in, it’s clear his early successes were miracle runs.

    I don’t think they were miracle runs. I think they were Bobby Lutz runs.

    #116746

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    One of the lessons of the HWSNBN road to purgatory was – to me – that MG’s “mulligan year” came with a very big asterisk. He needed to convince me and then some. NOT squeak by.

    Which is why I am fine saying he is finished and buried at this point.

    Winning out would be like a 1 in 2,000 probability event (do the math yourself), and that just gets us to 10-8. Not good enough with the talent we have, coming off such a stinker season, and having created so much bad juju this December and January.

    What about if we randomly won the ACCT? We definitely have the talent and depth to do it, and the tourney setting seems to masks our issues with lack of preparation, etc.

    Just ask yourself how much UConn has done since their miracle tourney run. Jack squat.

    #116747

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    The King Hippo thing ought to get him fired mid-season. Taking away the little bits of joy we have left.

    #116748

    Rick
    Keymaster

    N&O reports BJ & GOTT had words at practice. BJ suspended for FSU game. No traveling.

    love him or hate him, Anya has been a Wolfpacker through and through. This is not going well for Gott.

    Yeah, it has always looked like the players did not respect him and this seems to highlight that.

    #116753

    Daily Update
    Keymaster

    Vawolf82: That section was referencing each coach’s last 5 seasons. For Gott that would be years 2-6 hence 3 NCAAS and only 1 S16. I was trying to highlight how much better Sendek did during that timeframe yet still was under major fire from the fanbase. So of course Gott deserves to be on the hot seat as well since his most recent 5 years are worse than Sendek’s.

    I will try to make that more clear later

    #116755

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Winning out would be like a 1 in 2,000 probability event (do the math yourself)

    1 in 32,038 of winning out

    EDIT
    Odds from teamrankings.com

    #116756

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    Just ask yourself how much UConn has done since their miracle tourney run. Jack squat.

    If I remember right the UConn miracle run was 2011 was under Jim Calhoun.. i think they won it all again in 2014 under a different coach though.

    Winning out would be like a 1 in 2,000 probability event (do the math yourself)

    i’m curious now.. if I get some time later i’ll run the numbers from Kenpom.

    EDIT: n/m VaWolf killing it in here

    #116757

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    i’m curious now.. if I get some time later i’ll run the numbers from Kenpom.

    Do it. I’m curious to see the comparison to teamrankings.com. I’ve been tracking them since the start of the ACC regular season. I’m planning on documenting their stuff towards the end of the year.

    It’s too late for me to track pomeroy now for that entry. But one data point would be better than nothing.

    #116758

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    i’m curious now.. if I get some time later i’ll run the numbers from Kenpom.

    Do it. I’m curious to see the comparison to teamrankings.com. I’ve been tracking them since the start of the ACC regular season. I’m planning on documenting their stuff towards the end of the year.

    It’s too late for me to track pomeroy now for that entry. But one data point would be better than nothing.

    will do.. i gotta run out for a bit but I’ll run it via Kenpom when i’m back

    #116759

    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    I fully expect yet another wholesale exodus out of the program this year, leaving a skeleton crew to return next year. And I would expect those that leave will do what others have done, that is to imply strongly that Gottfried was untruthful to them in recruiting and that he has mis-managed the team. It is inevitable.

    It is clear that Gottfried did not instill high expectations of the team and in individual players. His “cool jacket” comment should have come after the first couple of games when it was clear that this was a lackadaisical squad with no leadership on or beside the court.

    Then there is his long running philosophy the defense is an afterthought. No one expects NC State to be Tony Bennett’s UVA redux, but the standing around watching team after team after team take open shots is completely unacceptable. It shows a lack of effort, and a lack of a will to win.

    Given that these problems have existed for years, one can reasonably expect that another year or two won’t see any changes.

    Debbie Yow has got to make a choice: is she going to do her job, or is she going to continue to enjoy her working retirement and leave this problem to her replacement. Hiding behind “the next AD should choose their own coach” is another way of saying that she wants to collect a paycheck and shirk her responsibilities. And that too is unacceptable.

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