Snowbound ACC Basketball Update

Well I trust that all our readers in the mid-Atlantic region have stocked up on their essential provisions for the blizzard of 2016. For the first time in the nearly 30 years that I’ve lived in VA, my company closed all operations the day before the first flake even hit the pavement. So I have music channels playing on the TV while reviewing the ACC season and looking for things worth noting. (I’m pretty sure that the music I’m listening to will never be embedded into a game thread by BJD.)

So follow along, note the things that stand out to you after the first three weeks of the ACC season, and add your thoughts to mine in the comments.

 

RPI TABLE

 

There are quite a few interesting things to note about Clemson’s season to date. Enough so, that I’ve included a short section below our standard trend graphs. So review the numbers and we’ll get to the Tiggers in a few moments.

I’ve included a few new columns from ESPN’s conference summary to our table this week. I found it interesting that according to ESPN’s calcs, Duke is 3-3 against the weakest conference schedule in the ACC (to date). Duke’s conference strength will pick up with two games against UNC and L’ville to go along with games at Miami and UVa at home. Has anyone seen a countdown clock showing when Amile Jefferson is expected back?

It’s interesting to see that every team except BC has at least one Top-50 win this season. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen that before. This factoid dovetails nicely with a comment I made last week that there seems to be more upsets in the ACC season than we’ve seen in the recent past. I hope this trend continues not only this year, but in the future as well. A conference that is stronger from top to bottom would certainly produce more interesting games even when we don’t have an emotional interest in the outcome.

 

TREND GRAPHS

 

UVa slips a little after a loss @FSU and a home win over Clemson.

Duke’s ranking shows the effect of their current three-game losing streak.

Pitt suffered a big drop after a home loss to State.

Notre Dame has climbed into our “IN” category by winning 4 of 5, though the win at Duke is the only one worth talking about. I think that ND’s rise shows that winning is always good, even if the wins are nothing to crow about.

 

 

FSU has managed to climb the rankings and straddle our two graphs with the #40 ranking. But their ACC record of 2-4 leaves plenty of room to doubt whether or not they can play their way into the NCAAT. A rise in rankings with a 2-4 record might seem a little strange until you go back to the RPI table and see that FSU has played the 5th toughest conference schedule in the nation so far. Their conference losses have come on the road against Clemson, Miami, and L’ville along with a home loss to UNC. So even though the losses aren’t horrible, losing is never good…even with a rise in the RPI ranking. The best I can do with FSU today is to take a wait-and-see approach to see how many games like the road win at Florida they have in them.

Syracuse has started rising up the rankings by going from 0-4 to 3-4. Though to be honest, the win at Duke is the only one worth talking about. But repeat after me….winning is always good.

WF and GT only have one conference win so far, so it’s hard to get excited about their “bubble” status.

 

CLEMSON AND VT

 

Without a doubt, Clemson and VT are the two biggest surprises that I’ve seen in the ACC so far. My impressions of Buzz and VT are based on a sliding scale of results vs expectations. But Clemson’s conference season has been impressive and was certainly not expected based on their weak OOC schedule and their performance against that schedule. To be specific, losses to #207 Minnesota and a blow-out home loss to #147 UMass wouldn’t lead anyone to expect Clemson to start the ACC season 5-2 against what ranks today as the toughest conference schedule in the nation.

When I look at home wins against L’ville, Duke, and Miami and then look at their remaining schedule, it doesn’t take much optimism to see the possibility of 12 ACC wins for Clemson. To put Clemson’s accomplishments into perspective, let’s draw comparisons to some previous bubble teams at NC State. In ’02 and ’03, State had a grand total of three wins against NCAAT teams in both seasons combined (and two of those wins came in the ACCT). So Clemson has already matched that aggregate accomplishment level with over half the conference schedule left to play.

Now for the bad news. Clemson’s super-weak OOC schedule draws to mind the fate of some past bubble teams (VT and Greenburg, Herb at ASU, and SMU two years ago). But my favorite example illustrating punitive NCAAT selection standards is Penn St in 2009:

  • 22-11 overall; 10-8 in conference
  • RPI Ranking – #68 (in line with several of Herb’s bubble teams)
  • Two Top-25 wins
  • Total of six Top-50 wins.
  • OOC SOS ranking- #304

Anyone that thinks that the OOC schedule doesn’t matter simply hasn’t been paying attention. Whether any of this applies to Clemson this year will depend on their results over the remaining schedule. A weak OOC schedule doesn’t always hurt (ie, Notre Dame last year), but it never really helps unless you’re aiming for the NIT.

One last observation on Clemson’s schedule…while their conference schedule ranks top in the conference and nation today, that probably won’t last. Clemson’s H/A conference games are against UVa, FSU, BC, and VT. So they have already played the majority of their tough games and three of the hardest left (Pitt, UVa, and ND) are all at home. So on the one hand, Clemson probably won’t get as much help from schedule strength as they’ve gotten with the first three weeks of ACC play. But on the other hand, Clemson has what will probably be their toughest remaining games at home where they’ve already delivered what most people consider three big upsets so far this season.

The bottom line is that Clemson’s fate is clearly in the team’s hand and the administration has made that task harder than it needed to be with their poor decisions when designing the OOC schedule. On a depressing note, the fact that I’m more interested in discussing Clemson than State tells you all you need to know about State’s season so far.

 

ACC STANDINGS

To back up my title of “Big Surprise” for VT and Clemson, who would have ever thought that either team would have a better conference record than UVa and Duke three weeks into the conference schedule?

 

UPCOMING GAMES

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 43 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #97721
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Well I trust that all our readers in the mid-Atlantic region have stocked up on their essential provisions for the blizzard of 2016. [See the full post at: Snowbound ACC Basketball Update]

    #97724
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Hey, I just hope we still play tomorry. I knew when NC State, of all places, announced around 5pm yesterday it would be closed today…shit really was gonna go down. Ice capades for sure. Been up since 6:30, haven’t heard a single car out in my Apex neighborhood yet. Maybe SOME folks do have a scintilla of grey matter left after all, in this “Donald Trump being taken seriously” world.

    And since VA was begging for it, this has enough country vibe in it that he might like. Great little band out of Southern Indiana that I hope to see (if I can justify an exception from my recluse-hood) at Cat’s Cradle in April. Also madly in love with the lady on keyboards.

    #97725
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    If Dook can’t make it over it’s a forfeit, right?

    That band has a nice vibe. They’re playing the Sasquatch Festival in WA at the end of May, and they’re the kind of band that might make the trip to Victoria. I’ll keep an eye out for them. You should start a NST music thread 🙂

    #97726
    PackerInRussia
    Participant

    Wow, that’s really shocking about Clemson. VaWolf, you should go around to schools and give lectures on the importance of OOC scheduling. You could guarantee a path to the NCAA Tourney (different from an appearance in the NCAAT) and charge large speaking fees. It’d be like those Insider articles on ESPN. Sure, you could find this information somewhere else, but wouldn’t you rather pay for it and feel exclusive?

    #97727
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Hey Ply! Ya gotta get out of Saskatoon, from time to time.

    http://www.statefansnation.com/forums/topic/guy-clark/

    #97728
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    If Dook can’t make it over it’s a forfeit, right?

    That band has a nice vibe. They’re playing the Sasquatch Festival in WA at the end of May, and they’re the kind of band that might make the trip to Victoria. I’ll keep an eye out for them. You should start a NST music thread :)

    I bet so, too! And if’n one is EVER in WA state and doesn’t take the ferry into Victoria, they’uns just cray-cray.

    #97729
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    State/Duke to play as scheduled. UVa’s game postponed to Sunday night.

    #97730
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Ha!Beej! Bouncy little number.

    I’ll be damned if that wasn’t shot in Desert Hot Springs. That’s San Jacinto Mountain in the backdrop.

    Man, I miss the desert on a day like today.

    #97731
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    #97732
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    Hey Ply! Ya gotta get out of Saskatoon, from time to time.

    Why? It’s 60 degrees and sunny today 🙂

    I did go to Copenhagen in October (business) and saw these local dudes, known as Grumpynators. They are rockabilly (who knew?) with some Danish metal mixed in: https://youtu.be/BVIRhtlWu8o

    It was an excellent show, among the locals. The middle act was a full on skinhead metal band that initially had me looking for the nearest exit, but they were harmless.

    For BJD, here’s a wonderful singer/songwriter from Sweden, Sarah McDougall. I saw and met her at Rifflandia in Victoria. https://youtu.be/kolu5mBA3as

    #97734
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    VaWolf…
    On a day like this down here at the Beach…
    38 -39 degrees and 2 and 3 tenths rain and thunderstorms so far…
    and cold water standing everywhere…

    I’d rather be by the fireplace with the snow falling somewhere in the hills of the Northern Piedmont….

    :>}

    PACK could surprise some folks tomorrow…
    but I’m thinking Coach Rat will bring his boys to town MAD….

    we shall see….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #97735
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Bill, if you move to the Piedmont for an occasional snowy day, you risk getting sleet/freezing rain and the resulting power outages that leave you huddled next to the fireplace.

    Snow is nice, but I’d swap with you in a blink.

    #97736
    choppack1
    Participant

    The only problem with the beach is that you don’t get snow….I love sleet, snow, big storms…if I am allowed to have my ship come in I will build on my lot on the coast and will head to the Shenandoah when I see a forecast like this…and yea, go to 10 football games a year.

    #97737
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    Chop, build it in Tofino 🙂

    http://www.wickinn.com/winter-storm-watching

    #97738
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Now it does snow at the Beach…

    just not this year…

    I picked 10 bushels of lettuce on the Farm on January 3rd…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #97739
    choppack1
    Participant

    Torfino – I see the ocean and I want to swim in it! But I would enjoy the heck out of watching those waves.

    Bill – it does sometimes – but I like the disasters!

    #97740
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Hey Ply! Ya gotta get out of Saskatoon, from time to time.

    Why? It’s 60 degrees and sunny today :)

    I did go to Copenhagen in October (business) and saw these local dudes, known as Grumpynators. They are rockabilly (who knew?) with some Danish metal mixed in: https://youtu.be/BVIRhtlWu8o

    It was an excellent show, among the locals. The middle act was a full on skinhead metal band that initially had me looking for the nearest exit, but they were harmless.

    For BJD, here’s a wonderful singer/songwriter from Sweden, Sarah McDougall. I saw and met her at Rifflandia in Victoria. https://youtu.be/kolu5mBA3as

    LOVE the female singer-songwriter types, and Nordic acoustic folk is also wonderful. NICE FIND! Bet she was excellent live. Lucky Canuck bastard!!

    #97742
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Guys, I’ve lived in the Piedmont twice totaling 45 years…
    and I like all four seasons …

    besides it’s snowed or iced or something white and hard in ILM six out of the eight winters we’ve been here…

    just not this year…

    it’s warmed up to 47 degrees and we’ve had another inch of rain…

    I’m supposed to start planting cabbage, kale, peas, carrots, radishes, taters and few other things in two weeks…

    ya’ll stay warm

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #97743
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Back to original premise, I find it hilarious that we are ahead of Clemson, despite our 1-5 ACC record. The difference is having a meh OOC schedule (which happened to us by mostly misfortune, as can happen) vs. a putrid one (which is no accident).

    VA’s lecture to coaches ADs should be a very short one, followed by a round of face slapping.

    #97744
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Hope all ya’ll GOTT electricity this morning !!

    Best I can tell — the Dook game is still on tap for 2:00pm right ???

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #97745
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Yep. It would take a massive “act of God” before the powers that be would let one cancel on CBS national coverage.

    Which is good, I could use the distraction.

    #97746
    Wolfanatic
    Participant

    FWIW, remember that tonight is the Full Wolf Moon. A good omen.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/full-wolf-moon-2016-means-040000547.html

    #97747
    BassPacker
    Participant

    No power here n Mayberry rural Harnett County but still got battery power smartphone. Go Pack. Need some positive results to cheer up this winter ice storm gloom.

    #97748
    13OT
    Participant

    You gotta love it when you’re sitting here in Wake County (or elsewhere), unable to get out onto the roads, holding tickets to today’s game (as are about 19,000 others). The State Highway Patrol and numerous area media outlets are telling us to stay off the roads. The governor, on tv, says that this game should nevertheless be played without anyone there to watch (so that we could hear the bounce of the ball and the players’ conversations), and on top of that, the ACC Comish and the Wolfpack AD are encouraging everyone to stay home and watch it on tv.

    Will there be a ticket exchange or a refund? I paid $70 for these tickets, not to mention WPC dues and LTR fees. Do the paying fans matter anymore?

    I get it that rescheduling wouldn’t be that easy, but come on- these two schools are only 20 miles apart, and this game could easily have been played at a later date. It’s not like one school would have to fly its team in here.

    With all due respect to our ACC and Wolfpack officials, you got this one wrong.

    #97749
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    I feel this game would have been canceled if we were playing anyone else. You just know coach K was frothing at the mouth and vocal as hell about it at the chance to play an “away” game with NO crowd to create any kind of home court advantage.

    The governor just got done spending 5 minutes telling the entire State not to attend this game. I think he is pissed they are still going to play.

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