Snowbound ACC Basketball Update

Well I trust that all our readers in the mid-Atlantic region have stocked up on their essential provisions for the blizzard of 2016. For the first time in the nearly 30 years that I’ve lived in VA, my company closed all operations the day before the first flake even hit the pavement. So I have music channels playing on the TV while reviewing the ACC season and looking for things worth noting. (I’m pretty sure that the music I’m listening to will never be embedded into a game thread by BJD.)

So follow along, note the things that stand out to you after the first three weeks of the ACC season, and add your thoughts to mine in the comments.

 

RPI TABLE

 

There are quite a few interesting things to note about Clemson’s season to date. Enough so, that I’ve included a short section below our standard trend graphs. So review the numbers and we’ll get to the Tiggers in a few moments.

I’ve included a few new columns from ESPN’s conference summary to our table this week. I found it interesting that according to ESPN’s calcs, Duke is 3-3 against the weakest conference schedule in the ACC (to date). Duke’s conference strength will pick up with two games against UNC and L’ville to go along with games at Miami and UVa at home. Has anyone seen a countdown clock showing when Amile Jefferson is expected back?

It’s interesting to see that every team except BC has at least one Top-50 win this season. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen that before. This factoid dovetails nicely with a comment I made last week that there seems to be more upsets in the ACC season than we’ve seen in the recent past. I hope this trend continues not only this year, but in the future as well. A conference that is stronger from top to bottom would certainly produce more interesting games even when we don’t have an emotional interest in the outcome.

 

TREND GRAPHS

 

UVa slips a little after a loss @FSU and a home win over Clemson.

Duke’s ranking shows the effect of their current three-game losing streak.

Pitt suffered a big drop after a home loss to State.

Notre Dame has climbed into our “IN” category by winning 4 of 5, though the win at Duke is the only one worth talking about. I think that ND’s rise shows that winning is always good, even if the wins are nothing to crow about.

 

 

FSU has managed to climb the rankings and straddle our two graphs with the #40 ranking. But their ACC record of 2-4 leaves plenty of room to doubt whether or not they can play their way into the NCAAT. A rise in rankings with a 2-4 record might seem a little strange until you go back to the RPI table and see that FSU has played the 5th toughest conference schedule in the nation so far. Their conference losses have come on the road against Clemson, Miami, and L’ville along with a home loss to UNC. So even though the losses aren’t horrible, losing is never good…even with a rise in the RPI ranking. The best I can do with FSU today is to take a wait-and-see approach to see how many games like the road win at Florida they have in them.

Syracuse has started rising up the rankings by going from 0-4 to 3-4. Though to be honest, the win at Duke is the only one worth talking about. But repeat after me….winning is always good.

WF and GT only have one conference win so far, so it’s hard to get excited about their “bubble” status.

 

CLEMSON AND VT

 

Without a doubt, Clemson and VT are the two biggest surprises that I’ve seen in the ACC so far. My impressions of Buzz and VT are based on a sliding scale of results vs expectations. But Clemson’s conference season has been impressive and was certainly not expected based on their weak OOC schedule and their performance against that schedule. To be specific, losses to #207 Minnesota and a blow-out home loss to #147 UMass wouldn’t lead anyone to expect Clemson to start the ACC season 5-2 against what ranks today as the toughest conference schedule in the nation.

When I look at home wins against L’ville, Duke, and Miami and then look at their remaining schedule, it doesn’t take much optimism to see the possibility of 12 ACC wins for Clemson. To put Clemson’s accomplishments into perspective, let’s draw comparisons to some previous bubble teams at NC State. In ’02 and ’03, State had a grand total of three wins against NCAAT teams in both seasons combined (and two of those wins came in the ACCT). So Clemson has already matched that aggregate accomplishment level with over half the conference schedule left to play.

Now for the bad news. Clemson’s super-weak OOC schedule draws to mind the fate of some past bubble teams (VT and Greenburg, Herb at ASU, and SMU two years ago). But my favorite example illustrating punitive NCAAT selection standards is Penn St in 2009:

  • 22-11 overall; 10-8 in conference
  • RPI Ranking – #68 (in line with several of Herb’s bubble teams)
  • Two Top-25 wins
  • Total of six Top-50 wins.
  • OOC SOS ranking- #304

Anyone that thinks that the OOC schedule doesn’t matter simply hasn’t been paying attention. Whether any of this applies to Clemson this year will depend on their results over the remaining schedule. A weak OOC schedule doesn’t always hurt (ie, Notre Dame last year), but it never really helps unless you’re aiming for the NIT.

One last observation on Clemson’s schedule…while their conference schedule ranks top in the conference and nation today, that probably won’t last. Clemson’s H/A conference games are against UVa, FSU, BC, and VT. So they have already played the majority of their tough games and three of the hardest left (Pitt, UVa, and ND) are all at home. So on the one hand, Clemson probably won’t get as much help from schedule strength as they’ve gotten with the first three weeks of ACC play. But on the other hand, Clemson has what will probably be their toughest remaining games at home where they’ve already delivered what most people consider three big upsets so far this season.

The bottom line is that Clemson’s fate is clearly in the team’s hand and the administration has made that task harder than it needed to be with their poor decisions when designing the OOC schedule. On a depressing note, the fact that I’m more interested in discussing Clemson than State tells you all you need to know about State’s season so far.

 

ACC STANDINGS

To back up my title of “Big Surprise” for VT and Clemson, who would have ever thought that either team would have a better conference record than UVa and Duke three weeks into the conference schedule?

 

UPCOMING GAMES

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Viewing 18 posts - 26 through 43 (of 43 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #97750
    PapaJohn
    Participant

    Agree w 13OT.
    Playing the game in a near empty building will deprive the Pack of the home court advantage that I think has helped push them over the top in the last two Duke games at PNC.

    #97751
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    CBS national. THAT is why it’s not moving to like Sunday late afternoon.

    #97752
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    If I was within 30 miles of the PNC…

    I’d put the truck in 4WD and leave now…
    sit on the first damn on our side and tell CBS, Swofford and Pat to F off…

    but….

    so… ya’ll GOTT to do THIS for me !!!!

    besides… I decided today was a good day to make a Brunswick Stew the right way and I’m two hours into….

    ———–

    Dr. Debbie should just tell everyone Free Admission, Free HotDogs and open seating and PACK the place….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #97753
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Surely they will at least run buses for the students??

    I would expect we will get at least 6-7K hearty locals there.

    #97754
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    In the gambling realm it’s well known that home court advantage is worth on average nearly 4 points (3.7 to be precise). With a State/Duke matchup that home court advantage would certainly be amplified.. I’d guess maybe 5 points. We’re definitely the losers in this sitch here before the ball even gets tipped.

    #97755
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I firmly believe that this wasn’t done in order to screw State and help Duke…but if the roles were reversed (or the Holes were disadvantaged in a big rivalry game)…NO FUCKING WAY. Their getting shafted would be taken into account, rather than being considered a collateral bonus by the Swoffy cabal and “Mayor Pat” etc.

    #97756
    ncsslim
    Participant

    I live in Apex. I have a 4WD for these instances. My wife (nurse) worked yesterday without incident (in fact at Rex next to the PNC). This is not a cataclysmic event and I will be at the game. I don’t recall seeing so much official panic (I’m not counting the couple of disasterous mid-day ice dustings we’ve had over the past few years – those were a bitch). Either cancel the game or get out of the way!

    #97757
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Remember, you can vote straight GOP ticket and still fill in the bubble for Roy Cooper. I know lots of conservatives who plan to do just that. It’s not like the legislature will be anything but overwhelmingly GOP anyway.

    #97759
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    I’ve got no beef with Pat, but yeah I know plenty of R’s who have always voted for Roy Cooper in the past. Now watch this GTown/UConn game go to triple OT. I’m grumpy, I need a beer.

    #97760
    BassPacker
    Participant

    The Wolf Line is running, the students will be there. You guys are way over the top when it comes to screwing State theories and give Coach K too much credit. Same thing happened last year with UNC/Dook game, Coach K didn’t want to drive 10 miles to Hill because the Dome would be full of students and nothing much else. Same will happen at PNC. That should favor us. I’m more shocked Coach K did not request the game NOT be played than go as scheduled with PNC full of students. If this so called conspiracy is true, Dook would pushed to have it postponed as Jefferson will be back to play. Go Pack !

    #97761
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    There is NO WAY in heck that this situation favors us. That should become obvious once the game tips.

    And if you think the Blue’s don’t get special treatment in this league you’ve got your head in the sand. Just no other way to put it.

    I mean seriously.. wasn’t it only 2 or 3 seasons ago Chris Corchiani got tossed from the PNC?

    #97960
    choppack1
    Participant

    I thought team player well with exception of – minutes where the movement stopped on offense.

    This year is all about avoiding disaster and embarrassment.

    And thad moss committed today!

    #98158
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    We are starting to see some dileneation in the league standings.

    UNC is the top team. They have played an easy conference schedule and have a bevy of tough games ahead, but from what I have seen they are the league’s most talented and complete team.

    BC is the league’s worse team by a mile. They are simply awful and will be everybody’s “get right” game, even ours on 3/2.

    I can’t make much sense of positions 2-10. Four teams knotted at 5-2. They are going to fight it out the rest of the way. There are some surprises both ways – teams that have underperformed and teams that have impressed. My gut tells me Clemson and VT will fall back, with Cuse, UVa and perhaps Duke moving up if they can ever get Jefferson back. But who knows. Another big surprise appears to be Notre Dame. They are a pretty good team and will likely head to the dance.

    The bottom of the league appears to be GT, FSU, STATE, Wake, and BC. Two of those teams have already beaten us. Better beat GT next.

    Here are your updated league standings:

    UNC 7-0
    Louisville 5-1
    Pitt 5-2
    Notre Dame 5-2
    Miami 5-2
    Clemson 5-2
    VT 4-3
    UVa 4-3
    Duke 4-4
    Cuse 3-5
    FSU 2-5
    GT 1-5
    STATE 1-6
    Wake 1-6
    BC 0-6

    —-
    edited BC record

    #98159
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Oops sorry BC is 0-6,not 1-6. Typo.

    #98162
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    IIRC, The bottom 6 teams have had a losing conference record the last two updates. The big difference between RPI standings and conference standings are VT and Clemson. I expect VT to fall back, but I don’t know what to expect out of Clemson. Three big wins and they were hanging tight in C’ville.

    As with most things, time will tell.

    #98196
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    UVa comes back from a 7 point deficit with 20 seconds to play to stun Wake on a last second three. Wake controlled the game but missed a bunch of free throws down the stretch. Gotta learn how to close.

    FSU beats BC.

    #98199
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I just looked at the yahoo sports app (highly recommended) and saw that Pitt visits Tiger Town tomorrow (or actually Greenville this year). Another chance for Clemson to show what they’re made of.

    #98209
    BassPacker
    Participant

    Playing away from Little John seems to be working well for Clemson. I have several Clemson grad friends, none are too confident Coach Brad will continue this run. Very similar comments from them about Brad as we have discussed with Gott.

Viewing 18 posts - 26 through 43 (of 43 total)
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