GT Preview

'06 Football General45

There is probably no compelling reason to do a GT preview, except for the fact that I started looking at doing one shortly after the FSU game. There are alot of similarities between this year’s GT team and those of the recent past: Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson are back. So are Chan Gailey and Jon Tenuta. So let’s look backwards as well as at this season to get some idea of what we might see on Saturday.

Reggie Ball

Reggie made quite a splash starting as a true freshman. However, I don’t think that he has quite lived up to the hopes of GT fans that were looking for the next Joe Hamilton. But at least for GT fans, the numbers clearly show that Reggie is having his best year as a senior.

The big thing that stands out to me is the improvement in the TD/INT ratio. I’ve always said that Reggie Ball was the type of player that can keep both teams in the game. He is working hard to make a liar out of me.

GT’s Rushing Game

So how has GT fared with the departure of PJ Daniels?

Considering that Tashard Choice is the 3rd leading rusher in the conference…it looks like GT isn’t missing PJ too much.


GT’s Passing Game

The two Johnsons (Calvin and James) rank 1st and 8th in the conference in receiving. However as a team, GT ranks 9th in the conference in passing offense. Calvin gets a lot of well-deserved press coverage when he scorches the opposition, like at VT. But he was no where to be found in the Clemson game. Hopefully State won’t lose track of either Johnson.

NC State’s Rushing Game vs GT

Short and (not-so) sweet…it doesn’t look good. State has never done well on the ground against GT:

GT is currently ranked 3rd in the conference against the run. UVa is ranked 9th in the conference and State managed only 70 net yards on 29 attempts against the Hoos. Anyone that expects State to grind out yardage on the ground against GT better come up with a darn good line of reasoning or you will end up looking pretty foolish.

NC State’s Passing vs GT

State has had a little better luck through the air over the last several years:
This year, the pass defense is once again one of GT’s weaker areas…ranking 9th in the conference.

One key item to remember is that in last year’s game, 120 yards of passing came on two plays…a 40 yard flea flicker for a TD and a 10 yard slant over the middle that Brian Clark took for an additional 70 yards and a TD (with a penalty for diving into the endzone, IIRC.). We’ll come back to this point later.

What Should We Expect from GT?

Let’s start with Tenuta and the GT defense. I expect that they will put 8 or 9 players in the box to accomplish several things:

– Shut down State’s rushing attack.
– Shutdown State’s “east-westâ€? passing game.
– Blitz from any position on the field.

State’s offense and its coordinator looked completely lost against Maryland’s blitzes several weeks ago. If no improvement is made in this area, then it could be a long afternoon in Raleigh.

If I hadn’t watched the first quarter of the VT-GT game, I would have predicted that GT would come out trying to pound out yards on the ground. They still might, but against VT they came out throwing. Both Johnsons burnt the VT secondary and the game was nearly out of reach after the first quarter.

I’m certainly no expert on GT, but the games that I have watched they seem to be calling more running plays for Ball than I remember from the past. In any event, Ball is the 18th best rusher in a 12-team conference. When you throw in how poorly State did at containing the UVA QB last week, it looks like something that the GT coaches should consider.

Does State Have a Chance?

The odds are about the same as what Jim Carrey faced in Dumb and Dumber. Ignoring this for a moment, what does State need to do to have a chance?

1) The defense must pressure Ball while containing him in the pocket.

– If you saw the VT game, Ball still makes poor decisions under pressure. Up big in the first half, Reggie threw interceptions on two consecutive possessions which could have let VT back in the game. However VT could only muster two FG’s and never really threatened GT even though the final score looked somewhat respectable.

– I don’t think that State can accomplish either goal with a four-man rush.

2) The defense must contain Chance. If GT is able to grind out yardage on the ground, State’s defense will likely wear out from being on the field too long. I see no chance for State to stay close in time-of-possession unless the defense can force a lot of punts.

– If you combine points #1 and #2, you quickly reach the conclusion that State must pack alot of defenders close to the line of scrimmage and hope that the secondary can keep up with the Johnsons.

3) Keep track of the Johnsons.

– VT learned the hard way that letting either one run loose in the secondary is a recipe for disaster. See Point #1 for one of the best ways to keep the Johnsons in check.

4) Evans and the offensive line must pick-up GT’s zone blitzes.

– No one should expect Evans to have enough time for a 40 yard fly route to develop. But the line must give Evans enough time to throw 10-15 yards down field and give State’s playmakers a chance to go one-on-one against the GT secondary.

5) The offense has to throw past the line of scrimmage…ie trash the east-west passing game.

– Last year, two big down-field plays gave State 14 points and the lead. State will need to get yardage in big chunks if they are going to have any chance at a win. I hope to see some more 10 yard passes with big runs after the catch.

Final Thoughts

I have never been more upset at State’s coaches that I was in 2003 during the GT game in Atlanta. The defense never blitzed until the 3rd quarter and let a freshman QB gain confidence. The offense kept throwing to RB’s in the flat or a WR screen that required one tackle to be broken or missed just to get back to the line of scrimmage. The coaches certainly shouldn’t take advice from an armchair QB and engineer…but they might want to take some from Einstein:

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

'06 Football General

45 Responses to GT Preview

  1. BJD95 11/02/2006 at 3:05 PM #

    Great work, VaWolf. Honestly, I haven’t seen GT play much this year or closely scrutinized their stats. My uninformed gut still says that Tech turns into a pumpkin whenever it looks like they’ve turned the corner (just as they are dangerous when it looks like they are headed down the crapper).

  2. Trout 11/02/2006 at 3:06 PM #

    Wow, excellent analysis VaWolf. This is a good of a preview as you will find ANYWHERE. Kudos.

    “I have never been more upset at State’s coaches that I was in 2003 during the GT game in Atlanta. ”

    Same here. Damn that was a frustrating afternoon.

  3. Trout 11/02/2006 at 3:08 PM #

    “Tech turns into a pumpkin whenever it looks like they’ve turned the corner (just as they are dangerous when it looks like they are headed down the crapper).”

    So they are alot like NC State then? 🙂

  4. redfred2 11/02/2006 at 3:19 PM #

    “Hopefully State won’t lose track of either Johnson.”

    That could where the talent and inexperience issues become a factor.

  5. redfred2 11/02/2006 at 3:42 PM #

    ^ 😉

  6. MatSci94 11/02/2006 at 3:55 PM #

    From what I saw of the Clemson-GT game, it seemed like Clemson was determined not to give up big plays to Calvin Johnson. Some of the sets looked like triple coverage against him. I’m not sure how other factors played in (pass rush, etc)

    The game last year had Ball playing one of the worst halves *ever*, then a pretty good 2nd half. It sounds like he’s not as sporadic this year.

  7. Wolfpack4ever 11/02/2006 at 3:57 PM #

    If our secondary doesn’t “Keep track of the Johnsons” we are screwed — pun intended.

  8. choppack1 11/02/2006 at 4:13 PM #

    I think you simplify things here – double Calvin – man up on 89 (I feel like Bobby Bowden here talking about his own players) and use the rest of the guys to attack. If we don’t keep our lanes, Ball will have a running field day. As a result, look for Ball to have a running field day and look for us to be burned by screens early.

    On offense, we’ll need to come out throwing. I don’t know how they rate statistically, but I think that GaTech is probably the best overall offense we’ve faced to date, so our low, low risk strategy that we’ve executed to perfection in the 1st half of the last 2 games will probably result in us going into the locker room down 17-3. Tenuta should have it all over us. However, I believe that we come out w/ an aggressive game plan -hopefully, we’ll have moderate success.

  9. redfred2 11/02/2006 at 4:14 PM #

    4ever

    I tryed to be a little more subtle in my earlier post, but you are correct. 😉

  10. ChuckAllYall 11/02/2006 at 4:20 PM #

    Like Chuck always says, this one will come down to who wins the kicking game…….or has 10 false starts……or throws 75% of its passes backwards……….or waits until the fourth quarter to do anything on offense…..or runs the “option” with Marcus Stone.

    “What critics? What critics? I have no idea what you’re talking about.”

  11. redfred2 11/02/2006 at 4:27 PM #

    If Amato does happen to handle two Johnson’s on the same night, then what are we going to call him?

    Looks like another no win situation for the beleaguered HC to me.

  12. redfred2 11/02/2006 at 4:44 PM #

    I mean sure, he’s not my favorite coach at all right now, but I’d still like to be able look him in the eye, and shake his hand.

  13. cfpack03 11/02/2006 at 4:51 PM #

    An excellent analysis and the exact info I’ve been yearning for all week. Your compositions are always in the same structure of my thinking also. Thanks for the great post.

  14. Woof Wolf 11/02/2006 at 4:57 PM #

    We’ll probably get a lot of penalties for the DB’s holding onto their Johnsons.

  15. redfred2 11/02/2006 at 5:09 PM #

    ^ChuckAllYall

    Funny!

  16. choppack1 11/02/2006 at 5:09 PM #

    Oh yea, I’d add, we should probably have plays where we roll out Evans out of the pocket for this game. One thing about the Jackets – they’ll be coming, they love to blitz.

  17. redfred2 11/02/2006 at 5:15 PM #

    ^chop

    100% correct! They are going to need to, probably absolutely forced to, move Evans all over. Surely they are planning and setting up that way in practice this week .

    ???

  18. Mike 11/02/2006 at 5:58 PM #

    Thanks Chop for agreeing we need to roll Evans more. I said earlier this week that was one way to help reduce the rush, and we will need to do something like that to give DE some time.

    Look at GT’s D, and they have shut down pretty much everyone, Clemson being the exception, and Clemson ran the ball. Passing has been a different story, and they even stopped ND and Brady Quinn. Say what you will about ND, they have thrown the ball very well all year long. If GT can shut them down…………..could be a long night.

  19. choppack1 11/02/2006 at 6:06 PM #

    Mike – That’s very true. Hopefully, we’ll get Ball to throw a couple of INTs.

  20. redfred2 11/02/2006 at 6:43 PM #

    After the pitiful episode last Saturday, Chuck Amato’s head coaching skills are so in doubt that even he wins, he’ll get no immediate credit, it will be considered either a fluke or a gift. There will always that thought in the back of everyone’s mind, WHEN?, when is it all going to implode, ONCE AGAIN?!!!

    I don’t know how a coach gets past that, especially in the same job, at the same university?

  21. WolfPup35 11/02/2006 at 8:41 PM #

    This is a game that all the “experts” say that the ‘Pack should lose, so guess what, the ‘Pack will find a way to win. History repeats and repeats and repeats.

  22. choppack1 11/02/2006 at 11:15 PM #

    Anyone watching this ‘Ville- WVa game? I hope our OC is – Louisville runs a beautiful offense – and yes – they even throw some bubble screens, but they spread the field out and send folks long. this makes those short passes really easy – and productive.

  23. Wolfpack4ever 11/02/2006 at 11:56 PM #

    VaWolf, In your compilation of penalties on RAWFS, you noted that State had 1 false start vs WF, 3 false starts vs Md, and 5 false starts vs UVa. Do you think that being in a loud hostile environment and unable to hear the snap count could be the source of the differences in numbers? Against WF we were at home. I don’t know if UVa was louder than Md but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were.

    Our opponents have problems on offence in the NEZ area due to the noise our fans make in that area.

  24. whitefang 11/03/2006 at 8:05 AM #

    4ever, I was at the UVa game. It was “game loud” (whatever that means), and I am sure noise COULD have been a factor. But it has never seemed to me that Scott stadium is that loud, and I’ve been there more than any stadium except CF. Open-ended bowl, students in the grass at the open-end wearing ties, etc. Seemed to me to be just lack of prepared-ness or concentration.

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  1. The ACC Basketblog - 11/02/2006

    sDIJtg Thanks for the post.Really thank you! Awesome.

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