4 Reasons Big 4 = Bottom 4

Football Recruiting General NCS Football34

Link to Dave Glenn’s blog entry on the four reasons why the Big 4 = The Bottom 4 in football over the last 25 years.

1. Snowball Effect/Expansion.

2. Bad Demographics.

Here’s the breakdown of how many Division I-A signees the traditional ACC states produce on an annual basis, relative to the number of I-A programs in the state: Georgia 75 (150 signees, two teams) prospects per school, Florida 50 (350/7), Virginia 25 (50/2), Maryland 20 (40/2), South Carolina 20 (40/2), North Carolina 12 (60/5). Here’s the breakdown when you limit the same numbers to only BCS-conference teams: Florida 87 (350/4) per school, Georgia 75 (150/2), Maryland 40 (40/1), Virginia 25 (50/2), South Carolina 20 (40/2), North Carolina 15 (60/4).

3. Coaching Turnover.

4. Academic Requirements.

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Football Recruiting General NCS Football

34 Responses to 4 Reasons Big 4 = Bottom 4

  1. Trout 07/27/2006 at 1:04 PM #

    Seems Glenn agrees with Amato:

    “”The state of North Carolina has got outstanding high school football players in it, but can the population of the state handle four (ACC) schools, plus an East Carolina, plus the neighboring schools that are closer to the players than some of the in-state schools?” Amato asked. “I think that has an awful lot to do with it, really.”

  2. VaWolf82 07/27/2006 at 1:06 PM #

    His academic requirements section was woefully inadequate. He completely ignored the academic requirements for admission to any school in the UNC system.

    Link

    I would never believe anything DG says about SAT scores for FB players at UNC. He has already been caught misrepresenting UNC’s scores before….why should I believe him now?

  3. BJD95 07/27/2006 at 1:10 PM #

    “We can’t blame (the media) or anyone else for that,” Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe said. “Let’s face it: We haven’t won enough to force you to change your minds.”

    Nice to see Grobe have the right attitude about the media and their rankings.

    The “in-state competition” angle is a little misleading. It’s extraordinarily rare that Duke, Wake, or ECU can ever beat NC State or UNC for a recruit. Both co-flagship schools have huge institutional advantages.

    A far bigger limiting factor is the very strong cultural bond between UT and western NC. Letting VT into the ACC also makes it MUCH easier for the Hokies to raid our borders. Unlike ECU, Duke, and Wake – that can really have an impact on the available talent base.

    All of this is exactly why I have long considered it folly to focus on whether NC State is looking elsewhere for talent as opposed to “building a fence around NC.”

  4. Mr O 07/27/2006 at 1:19 PM #

    When did he get caught misrepresenting UNC’s scores?

    He is the leading authority on that type of information because he is the only guy that has followed it since the NCAA stopped disclosing that information.

  5. Mr O 07/27/2006 at 1:23 PM #

    Glenn consistently says that Duke, Tech, Wake and UVa are always at the top of the ACC in terms of SAT scores/admission requirements. He always puts UNC in the group just after this, but ahead of Clemson, FSU and NC State.

  6. joe 07/27/2006 at 1:24 PM #

    There would not be many western NC players going to UT if they were a run of the mill program. They are considered “big-time” because of their 100,000+ seat stadium and their recent success.

    Since neither UNC or NCSU is considered big time FB there has been a long tradition of top 10 teams coming in and taking NC players. It’s just like ACC BB teams going all over the US and taking top players from other states. In the 80s the biggest outside school getting top NC talent was none other than Clemson. For a while they were getting over 50% of their roster from NC. The combination of Sheridan and Brown reduced that number and Clemson gets almost zero players from NC now.

  7. Trout 07/27/2006 at 1:28 PM #

    “Letting VT into the ACC also makes it MUCH easier for the Hokies to raid our borders. ”

    By the same token, NC State could just as easily be raiding the Virginia border. According to Glenn, Virginia has 50 D1 players per year, compared to NCs 60. Raleigh is closer to the Tidewater area (where the best Virginia players are located) than VT is, and with the change in law, out of state scholarships cost the same as in-state scholarships.

  8. RickJ 07/27/2006 at 1:31 PM #

    Demographics – Imagine the counties of Wake, Durham & Johnston Counties with 5 million people with 20% being African American. High School football is huge – great coaches & spring practice. Now put UNC-Chapel Hill over 325 miles away from Raleigh. Put Duke 1,000 miles away, ECU 250 miles away and Virginia Tech over 450 miles away. Sound pretty sweet. Welcome to the world of Miami Hurricane football.

  9. StateFans 07/27/2006 at 1:39 PM #

    “It’s just like ACC BB teams going all over the US and taking top players from other states.”

    I think we stole Justin Flatt from TN

  10. Trout 07/27/2006 at 1:41 PM #

    Number of D1 players somewhat corresponds to the population of that state:

    Florida: 17.7 million, 350 signees
    Georgia: 9.1 million, 150 signees
    North Carolina: 8.6 million, 60 signees
    Virginia: 7.6 million, 50 signees
    Maryland: 5.6 million, 40 signees
    South Carolina: 4.3 million, 40 signees

  11. Mr O 07/27/2006 at 1:50 PM #

    It is tougher in NC. But, that is another reason Amato was a good fit for our job.

  12. Trout 07/27/2006 at 1:50 PM #

    Georgia blows away NC as a football state. With only a 1/2 million more people, they have almost 3x the number of D1 football signees.

  13. joe 07/27/2006 at 1:51 PM #

    What you don’t hear much is that prior to the ACC being formed in 1954, North Carolina was considered a big FB state and BB was very much secondary. Duke was a top 10-20 FB team for a good while.

  14. joe 07/27/2006 at 1:52 PM #

    There are HS FB coaches in Georgia who get paid $100,000 a year with money raised by booster clubs. ( I think that’s 100k on top of their regular pay.) There are some college assistant coaches who don’t make that much.

  15. StateFans 07/27/2006 at 1:54 PM #

    “It’s just like ACC BB teams going all over the US and taking top players from other states.�

    Except you only need 5 to 8 players at a time to have a successful basketball program and you need over 10 times that many for success in football.

  16. Trout 07/27/2006 at 2:06 PM #

    You can easily see why the UGA football program SHOULD be Top 10 annually. Glenn says there are 150 D1 signees in the state each year. There are only 2 D1 programs – UGA and GT. However, GT cant touch many of these dudes due to academics – that leaves if all to UGA to pick and choose. Yes, other schools raid the state, but the home-state program should have an edge within its own borders. And the borders of Georgia are bountiful indeed.

  17. Mr O 07/27/2006 at 2:50 PM #

    Ga is also a great area for basketball recruiting. The Atl. area is producing tons of Div 1 talent right now.

    Hewitt is sitting in a gold mine down here.

  18. Cardiff Giant 07/27/2006 at 2:50 PM #

    I sometimes dream of Grobe as our head coach with Amato as his recruiting coordinator. It would be a match made in heaven, as Grobe is a hell of a coach but can’t recruit worth a damn, and Amato is the exact opposite.

  19. Cardiff Giant 07/27/2006 at 2:51 PM #

    And let’s face facts – Grobe probably hates those pantywaist Wake Forest bedwetters as much or more than we do, as he has to spend so much time with them.

  20. johnny 07/27/2006 at 4:19 PM #

    Hate to admit it but good article by smoke and fire Gleen.
    CTC has had to deal with the new ACC ith Miami, BC, VT
    last year and Fsu in previous years. But he has been given great support
    with $100M+ improvements to the football program and an open check book to hire assistant coaches. Glenn article kinda says a good program and recruiting more or less chicken and egg thing. Need good classes
    to develop a program. But need wins to get good recruits. The last couple
    of years we have not been making progress on the recruiting frount.
    Guess spending $100M does not buy a program. IMHO 23-25 ACC record
    and no better than 4th place is not much of an improvement. Think we will need to see more progress in the next few years.

  21. BladenWolf 07/27/2006 at 4:49 PM #

    Grobe said it best for all the Big Four teams.

    When they start winning consistantly, they will get more recognition in the pre-season prognostications.

    But 23-25 ain’t getting it done.

  22. class of 74 07/27/2006 at 5:03 PM #

    The educational requirements excuse is bogus. The real answer is history or lack of. We have NEVER been a football school, ditto UNC, ditto WF and for Duke it was so long ago that it was during my dad’s era when they were a power.

    We are not UT, Ohio State or USC and that kind of tradition and history is powerful. Can we build a football school here? History would suggest no, but I really think with the right coach it’s possible. Not easy but still it’s possible. After all, VPI was never a football school but Beamer finally has them at least mentioned when football schools are discussed, so it can be done.

  23. cfpack03 07/27/2006 at 5:23 PM #

    Grobe is a hell of a coach but can’t recruit worth a damn, and Amato is the exact opposite.

    nail on the head. Amato is a salesman. He’s done an incredible job of MARKETING us a great football school with unlimited potential. But unfortunately, his product has yet to match up to his advertising.

  24. bTHEredterror 07/27/2006 at 8:30 PM #

    I bet Hotlanta skews Georgia’s numbers. Auburn sitting right on the Georgia border reaps boatloads of talent from Georgia and so has UT. As a matter of fact UT gets a lot of its players from other states, as the hotbed in Tennessee high school football is the Memphis area, and Bama and LSU own it.
    The excuse of 5 D1 programs doesn’t wash, because California has 8 or 9 and SC still gets it done. Texes has 10 and the ‘Horns still get it done. The problem is tradition at every level, in the last ten years we have seen State and UNC’s best teams of all time (arguably, I know Crum and Sheridan had some tough teams). I think we are starting to see the impact of both schools improvement with the increase in prospects.
    The new conference should help turn State and Carolina into powers, not the opposite. For a long time we’d lose in state prospects with the SEC schools because the SEC is a great conference to play in. Last year all accounts were the ACC is tougher. Caoching turnover is a fact of life, and even Bobby B had a dip in his W/L percentage when he lost both coordinators in one year.

  25. VaWolf82 07/27/2006 at 11:53 PM #

    When did he get caught misrepresenting UNC’s scores?

    DG once said in the ACCSJ that the last year that the NCAA reported SAT scores that UNC was third in the conference. (This article was in ’02 or ’03…right after UNC sent 4 DL to Hargrave.) I got to read it becasue someone typed the entire article into PP premium.

    Someone else found the actual list on one of the Stanford sites (forget whether it was Rivals or Scout). In the last year that scores were released, UNC’s FB players average score was actually towards the bottom of the conference…about 10 pts below State’s.

    DG is a tool. If all of the State fans that love DG could hear him when he talks about Amato on the local sports radio talk show here in VA, they would have a completely different opinion of him. Let’s not forget the smoke and fire comment that actually slipped out in the Triangle.

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