In an interview today, Lee Fowler gave the following quote:
Anything can happen after you get in [the NCAA tournament]. If you get lightning in a bottle you can go a long way in this tournament and have a chance to win it so we are very excited to have the opportunity
While this is probably just more mindless chatter from someone who likes to hear himself talk, there are State fans that feel the exact same way. In the real world, this type of logic drives millions to buy lottery tickets every day….and millions more flock to Las Vegas every year. However, most of these people will at least admit that the chances of winning it big are a “long shot”. Evidently many State fans….along with State’s athletic director…refuse to acknowledge the odds of just any team catching “lightning in a bottle”.
Here is a breakdown of the RPI rankings of the teams that have reached various performance levels in the NCAA tournament from 1994 through 2005:
Just to clarifiy, this table says that over the 12 year period from 1994 thru 2005:
– 72% of the Sweet 16 teams entered the tournament ranked in the RPI Top-25,
– 94% of the Final Four teams entered the tournament ranked in the RPI Top-25,
– 67% of the teams in the Championship game entered the tournament ranked in the RPI Top-10, etc.
Just in case anyone misses the importance of this table, this is the third time in the last five years that State will enter the NCAA tournament ranked in the 51+ category.
For various reasons, many people tend to roll their eyes and lose consciousness whenever the letters “R”,”P”, and “I” are used in series. Just for those people, here is the same sort of tabulation done with final AP poll over the last eight years, from 1998 thru 2005.
As far as I can tell, State has only entered the NCAA tournament ranked in the AP Top-25 once in the last five years…and it’s certainly not this year.
I’ve went through this exercise in less detail once before…but the conclusion is still the same. Good teams, and more frequently great teams, are the ones that catch fire and accomplish something significant in the NCAA tournament…not teams that slide in from the bubble.
Don’t get me wrong, I would love for State to catch fire and do some real damage in the tournament…it’s just not very likely. I think that it is very telling that in five years of “continuing improvement”, State is still just doing the minimum necessary to get into the tournament…and is not expected to stay very long.
Supporting Data
The following tables served as the basis for the percentages listed above. While there is always some chance that I have made a mistake in compiling this data, the main point is indisputable…Cinderalla doesn’t stay at the ball very long after she makes her grand entrance.
RPI and the Final Four
RPI and the Elite Eight
RPI and the Sweet 16
AP and the Final Four
AP and the Elite Eight
AP and the Sweet 16
