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If you heard G’moron mention that TS was the last top-100 team in State’s OOC schedule, then you shouldn’t be surprised if State’s OOC SOS ranking of 75 and RPI ranking of 38 becomes State’s high-water mark for the year. (Hopefully not, but I wouldn’t bet against it.)
279 – Dec. 15 – Appalachian State
164 – Dec. 18 – Fairfield
221 – Dec. 22 – McNeese
202 – Dec. 28 – RiderVa Wolf – looking at ooc you have to be our rpi has reached its apex.
With 4 home games to the dregs we will likely be somewhere between 55-70 when the real (read ACC) season starts. We need all of our existing opponents to do well.
It sure helps to have your opponents do well (and we should say extra prayers for them too), but I hope our postseason hope don’t come down to these four OOC games and their respective RPI ranking.
We have 16 ACC games to make a statement. I hope we figure out a recipe for making that happen … and soon!
Does that mean we will actually start beating some of these peeps comfortably enough that I won’t stroke out? That we might even get to put in our non-GFK white dudes??
Gso – if we don’t get a top 6 seed in the tournament or a top 4 finish in the acc this year, I don’t have a lot of confidence that gott can deliver it on any kind of consistent basis.
Chop, I completely agree with your sentiment. I also believe that this squad will fall short of that. I am sticking with a 6th place finish until I see results on the floor that say otherwise.
Gso – if we don’t get a top 6 seed in the tournament or a top 4 finish in the acc this year, I don’t have a lot of confidence that gott can deliver it on any kind of consistent basis.
State will have to improve A LOT to get a 6th place ACC finish. It might happen….
My confidence level in Gott is based on his whole career, not just this season.
Yes Va Wolf – I know. You expect the past to be a solid indicator of future results.
I did some analysis on coaches and those that won natties – and what they had done in the past. If Gott is to win one he’d definitely be an outlier.
Criminy, I would be impressed if we just were a solid “in the tourney” team at this point. Would qualify as a minor miracle, which is an indictment of the coaching job performed to date.
I’ll be the first to admin that I have zero faith in Gott to get this program up to the level of the inputs that we have. I’ve felt that way since the day his hiring was announced, and nothing I’ve seen since then changes my mind.
I had a friend who was a lifetime Alabama fan and at Alabama when Gott was there. I followed that program more closely than most non-conference programs. Gott wasn’t even as good as Wimp Sanderson (that’s where he picked up the plaid jackets, not some tip of the hat to Case), so it’s hard to argue he maximized Alabama.
With Gott, you know what you’ve got:
– Good recruiter
– Good offensive coach
– Good talker
– Good with the media
– Lots of attrition
– Starting over every year, don’t build off of the last year
– Weak man to man defense and seemingly allergic to playing zone
– Inconsistent results
– Athletic teams that look best in transition
– Typically don’t shoot that well, particularly from the line
– A star player that is featured
– Some “outside” distractionsMy hope for this team was that the new assistants might help shake things up a bit. We hired a defensive guy and a hustle guy — two things we clearly were missing. I was hoping that the happenings for Gott over the past year to 18 months on and off the court might have knocked some humility in him and made him realize that there were some expectations here beyond just squeaking into the tournament and maybe putting two wins back to back to get into the Sweet 16. I was also hoping there was enough talent on this roster to overcome the “coaching.”
Tonight is our first game with our full roster. Admittedly, Mav’s not 100%, but it’s the first real time we’ve had everyone since the exhibitions (where we looked the best we’d looked in 20 years). I’ve not been sweating it up until now given that Gott’s teams typically improve through the year.
The season starts tonight for State, and we need to improve really quickly. Those first 2-3 weeks of ACC play are going to be critical. We can’t dig ourselves a hole and expect a top 4 ACC regular season finish.
In a bit broader post, this is why in the DD and Avent threads, I’ve always talked about inputs when people are judging the coaches. Avent isn’t perfect, but of the 3 biggest sports (football, men’s basketball and baseball), he is the closest to maximizing his program’s potential. DD is historically bad, but any change there is really a roll of the dice. If the best move is to keep him around longer to reduce the buy outs, then so be it. With basketball though, Gott clearly underperforms relative to the inputs and is the one that should have the most scrutiny. Unfortunately when our fans spend all fall after DD, then valid criticism of Gott is just lumped in as fan related noise.
Yes Va Wolf – I know. You expect the past to be a solid indicator of future results.
I wouldn’t go quite that far. I expect a long career to clearly define “average”. Peak seasons can still happen.
The best example of this is UNLV and Tark. I used to say that Tark/UNLV would never win a NC because their run/gun offense would always run into a better team. That was true until they had three first round picks on the same team…and none of them were freshmen. And even that team couldn’t repeat as NC’s.
I always liked the Tark. One had to remember he was doing it at UNLV, and in a time where high majors ruled college basketball.
Peak seasons can happen and runs in the tournament can happen. Gott made an Elite 8 at Alabama on the heels of a fairly mediocre season.
In the end though, I do agree that the lifetime moving average is what one can expect. With Gott that’s .500 in conference play. His record is nearly identical at State as it was at Alabama.
That’s what was most aggravating about the hire of Gott. There was nothing on his resume that suggested he’d ever break through and maximize the resources of this program. Almost any coach would have improved over Sid, but we went out and hired HWSNBNv2.
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