01/01/2016 at 3:07 PM #95600
Welcome to 2016 and one of my favorite days of the year…college football on the tube all day long and my first college basketball post of the year. [See the full post at: Summary of ACC Basketball OOC Results]01/01/2016 at 6:27 PM #95609TexpackParticipant
NIT is the best case scenario for the Pack this year. Expect to see a boat load of Box and 1 against Cat. He has truly developed into an exceptional player. Too bad he will be buried on a mediocre to poor team.01/01/2016 at 6:29 PM #95610
I forgot to mention that if you’re playing for the NIT, then having the bottom teams at home will help you get the wins you need for that tourney.01/01/2016 at 6:33 PM #95611
We have an outside shot at a tourney bid, likely as a 12 or play-in (last four in). The good news – plenty of opportunities to post big wins. Take the first seven games, for example. UNC, Duke, Louisville, and Pitt. The bad news – we’re not a very good basketball team. If Gott can scratch together 7 ACC wins, he’s a magician.01/01/2016 at 7:08 PM #95614bill.onthebeachParticipant
The bad news – we’re not a very good basketball team. If Gott can scratch together 7 ACC wins, he’s a magician.
True — but I’ll take that bet for a cold beer for the House…
@VaWolf… technology at times can be a beetch….#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!01/02/2016 at 12:21 AM #95622xphoenix87Moderator
KenPom projects us at 7-11 in the ACC and 17-14 overall. I think we’re slightly worse than his system currently has us, but We should be getting a starting-caliber player back at a position of need, and we’ve always closed strong under Gottfried. If that pattern holds, 9-9 is not at all out of the question, and that should put us on the bubble. This team really is remarkably similar to the 2014 squad, a relatively weak team with one great player. I think it’s going to be close, and things do have the potential to go off the rails, but I’m not ruling it out yet.01/02/2016 at 4:09 AM #95623mak4dpakParticipant
We have had some good wins, and some close calls against lesser teams. But by no means are we playing at our best. So rather than pass judgement this early, I will see how things play out the next few weeks, especially with the return of Henderson, which should help Cat.01/02/2016 at 7:30 AM #95624tractor57Participant
In a few ways this team reminds me of the ’83 team. No not the same quality overall but the same sort of situation. Loss of a major player, during that loss period basically one player became the go to (Ernie Myers) and when Whitt returned things rolled. The ceiling for this team is not as high certainly but I can tell you during those dark days no one thought the ’83 team would do anything either. This is why the games are played.
I think there is a good chance this teams gets better through the season – not only is that the usual for a Gott team here but there is some talent on the team. The question is how much better.01/02/2016 at 8:25 AM #95625
It’s good that we play a “harder than average” conference schedule, because like VA says…we need the opportunities that provides. A soft 9-9 ain’t gonna cut it.01/02/2016 at 8:46 AM #95627AdventurooParticipant
Interesting thread. It is hard to argue with all the statistics and the computer generated ratings. I have been at every home game and also watched most of the away games.
Recently, the team has played the most consistent BB of the season….and obviously with today’s ACC opener, it needs to.
In the FB threads, several folks have written AD Yow and expressed their concerns about the results and wanted her to know their displeasure and also what is planned to correct it.
I got a similar email from her earlier in the season and she commented on the fact that Lacey’s departure was a surprise to her, her staff and the coaching staff. SO, that is history….and nothing is gonna change it.
Kirk’s rehab and Freeman’s rehab were contributory issues to our initial results….and no one could have predicted Henderson’s injury. It is obvious that we have about 6.75 players. Freeman is still not back to full strength.
We are putting a lot of pressure on a freshman and a sophomore (Rowan and Martin). Rowan never dreamed (feared?) that he would be starting this year. Martin (and his twin) are still developing.
I saw much better play from Abu and Anya in the last few games….which we must have. Cat has matured way past what I expected of him and my hat is off to him for his efforts….as well as results.
As to the future, if Rowan and Martin get back into their “Groove”, then we will exceed all the numbers. YES, league play will be tough, but if you have them scoring and Cat doing his trick…and the bigs playing better, we will win more games that the experts predict.
However, the reality is that Henderson coming back in Jan/Feb is NOT gonna be like the prodigal return of Whit in 83′. Whit had played with that team for 4 years. They had to adapt when he was out and Myers was our Godsend. BUT, his transition back was very easy.
Henderson will have major conditioning issues to face and his “role” will also impact others. Remember our first games with Whit….UGLY.
SO, the jury is still out. Lately, this site seems to reflect the wet weather. Sort of like why the folks in Seattle are perpetually grumpy. It is tough to be optimistic when it rains all the time.
I hope that today’s sunshine will melt away some of the gloom and doom that has pervaded the comments over the past week or so.01/02/2016 at 9:03 AM #95628tractor57Participant
Well said. Henderson probably will not be like the Whitt of ’83 but in some ways similar. Different teams and different situations but there are some interesting issues.01/02/2016 at 9:11 AM #95629packalum44Participant
After the dance last year there were media articles mentioning us as competing for the ACC. Our best players enters draft and our best scoring post player transfers.
Meanwhile we have two junior highly regarded 4 star post players a five star 1st round PG minor and two athletic highly regarded 4 star wings with a four star freshman. How is our starting five talent wise not good enough to make the dance?
Thanks Debbie for that contract extension. Doubling down on a bad hire is a bad sign. She’s old and rich hard to say if she has the same fire in the belly she did during the honeymoon stage. My guess is not so much we are all human don’t let her public demeanor and rhetoric fool you.01/02/2016 at 10:16 AM #95631
Again…it’s not so much that Henderson is so TALENTED but rather, just having a 2nd guard on the court gets our spacing right and maybe allows us to run half-court sets that don’t look like “everybody stare at Cat until the shot clock runs out.”
The twins are forwards. GFK is a forward. Obviously, Abu and KH are post players only.
Still, MG is RESPONSIBLE, because it’s very, very risky to go to war with only two guards on your roster. I mean, shit happens.01/02/2016 at 11:33 AM #95635
Yesterday won’t rank very high on my list of New Year’s Days.
Yesterday’s bowl scores: 45-6; 44-28; 41-7; 45-16; 48-20 -> Not a single decent game
Then there is the depressing conclusion from this entry that State could easily be headed for a Tuesday game in the ACCT.01/02/2016 at 12:08 PM #95640
I agree VaWolf, terrible football games yesterday. I turned off every game I tried to watch. Some teams didn’t even get off the bus. I’ll be shocked if Bama/Clemson turns out that way. It should be a treat.01/02/2016 at 12:48 PM #95645
Jawja/Team Bad Touch is so unwatchably poor (competitive, just poorly played) that I’m watching soccer and Big East hoops instead.01/02/2016 at 4:42 PM #95797
So, what’s the NIT bubble looking like?01/04/2016 at 11:50 AM #95958
While VaWolf nails that the unbalanced schedule means it is more about who you play in your 18 games, I don’t agree with the premise that conference RPI doesn’t matter. It matters because it talks about the collective strength of schedule of the conference play, the ability for a conference win to be a good win, and the ability for a conference loss to become a bad one.
I’ve been one raising concerns that we’re in big, big trouble and conference RPI is part of the reason why. The reason that I say this was on display in the road loss at VPI. VPI was 151 in the RPI. As they take more losses and trend towards the bottom of the league, that will quite possibly become a bad loss (200+ RPI). Conversely had we beaten them, it wouldn’t have been all that great of a win either (other than the fact that it was on the road).
A lot of our fans are seemingly blindly holding out hope that a late run gets us in. At this point we’re just about behind the 8 ball barring something unforeseen (like a string of wins against the top 6). We’d possibly have to win the ACC tournament. That’s a very tall order for a good team given the bye that the top 4 teams get. Given the gaps I see in what we’re currently putting on the court, it’d be a Herculean effort by all involved to get us there in the next 8 weeks.
With respect to Rowan, let’s drop the “supposed to be in high school” and “wasn’t expected to play” lines. He’s 19.5 years old right now which is only 6 months younger than Freeman (who is a junior). That excuse works with Freeman who really was young. It doesn’t with Rowan (who was going to be 20.5 as a freshman if he’d not reclassified).
Rowan picked us over Louisville because he was going to get major minutes. There was immediate playing time (starters minutes and shots). Had he felt he wasn’t ready, he’d have gone to Louisville and worked in more slowly. He came right out of the gate gunning from day one, so there’s no lack of confidence with him.
His dad also played high level college ball, and played a lot of ball overseas. He has presumably had a lot of help along the way from his dad and from a very early age. He’s not a raw kid like a Tim Duncan who is just picking up a basketball. He has a fairly complete game as a freshman. I think we’re seeing a kid playing at least at the level of a normal sophomore.
Don’t get me wrong. I like Rowan, but we need to be real about this one. I feel the same way about the RPI discussion.01/04/2016 at 1:26 PM #95960
I don’t agree with the premise that conference RPI doesn’t matter. It matters because it talks about the collective strength of schedule of the conference play, the ability for a conference win to be a good win, and the ability for a conference loss to become a bad one.
While I never said that conference RPI doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter much. As I pointed out in the RPI section, your opponents winning percentage and your opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage directly contribute to your RPI calculation. So conference strength matters, but you have to remember that even if the ACC is “weak” by historical standards, it is still going to be stronger than 30+ other conferences (currently ranked 4th by realtime RPI).
I never documented a rough calculation I did last year when I tried to figure out how much of the conference teams contribute to the overall SOS. It seems that something like 40% of the winning percentages rolled into SOS come from the conference you play in. The stronger the conference, the more that strength will add to your RPI.
But you won’t make the NCAAT just by playing in a tough conference. What matters is WHO you beat…and a team that lost to Bill & Mary along with a weak VT team isn’t likely to care much about SOS, conference SOS, or pretty much anything else come March.01/04/2016 at 3:02 PM #95961
But you won’t make the NCAAT just by playing in a tough conference. What matters is WHO you beat…and a team that lost to Bill & Mary along with a weak VT team isn’t likely to care much about SOS, conference SOS, or pretty much anything else come March.
I’d agree with the second part. The discussion for this NC State team is probably moot anyways.
On the former though, it’s hard to beat good teams when the conference is weak. Being RPI #4 (as of today), isn’t going to help our bubble teams on Selection Sunday. They’ll have fewer opportunities for quality wins (particularly on the road), and more opportunities for a bad loss.
The bigger point I’ve been driving at for years is the mentality that non-conference doesn’t matter. I’m so sick of watching fans say “all I care about is how NC State performs.” That’s just wrong. It’s not like us pulling for other teams non-conference makes any difference, but if we’re out there educating about what gets one into the tournament, it is important to understand how critical the non-conference is.01/04/2016 at 3:48 PM #95962RickKeymaster
Gott has shown a very good feel for scheduling non conference. The problem is we played so poorly it is moot at this point.01/04/2016 at 3:51 PM #95964
On the former though, it’s hard to beat good teams when the conference is weak.
I agree that #4 is historically weak for the ACC, but there are still six teams in the RPI Top 30 and another 5 in the bubble zone. Thus there are plenty of opportunities for the key wins needed for an at-large bid…but only if you’re good enough to earn them.
This whole issue looks like one where quantity makes up for reduced average quality.01/04/2016 at 4:40 PM #95965
I think that we’re in agreement.
The quantity of wins needed are probably more than this team can get. I’d love to be pleasantly surprised though.
The VPI loss hurt badly. It was a loss against a similar bottom half team. It was a miss at a chance at a road win (which helps the RPI).01/04/2016 at 4:55 PM #95969
Yeah, the season is essentially over at this point. Just a matter of how stinky the turd gets. But it’s gonna be a turd, fo sho.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.