ACC Strength of Schedule

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This topic contains 8 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by  VaWolf82 2 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #119992

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    As soon as ACC expansion eliminated the round robin basketball schedule, it was always obvious that the strength of the conference schedule would vary
    [See the full post at: ACC Strength of Schedule]

    #119995

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Great work, as always.

    #119998

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    So much fun. I like that 22-game schedule.

    I am reasonably sure Raleigh would carry ACCN, even though WRAL has quit showing wide swaths of the non-NC team broadcast schedule.

    The syndication model is just dead.

    #120003

    Oldwolf
    Participant

    Very interesting work. How does one factor in SOS when a top rated team (say the holes) do not have to play themselves, so they automatically hav a somewhat lower SOS than say someone at the bottom like State who has to play them twice and do not get to ply them selves, so it is automatically a bit higher.

    How can you work that factor (regardless of the teams) to determine a SOS?

    I hear that argument from top rated teams 🙂

    #120005

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    How does one factor in SOS when a top rated team (say the holes) do not have to play themselves, so they automatically hav a somewhat lower SOS than say someone at the bottom like State who has to play them twice and do not get to ply them selves, so it is automatically a bit higher.

    Yes this happens….it’s the converse of the weakest teams inflating their SOS by losing to their opponents. I didn’t discuss that this year just because the darn article was so long as it is.

    My feel is that the effect of being the strongest or weakest ACC team is minimized because we’re only looking at a small number of teams to develop our SOS. UNC only played 4 teams twice, thus there are a lot of other teams that didn’t play UNC twice either. So UNC isn’t the only one that doesn’t get credit for playing them.

    I also try to avoid any issues with my system by not making a big deal over small differences. Since UNC had a two game lead over second place and BC was two games under 14th place, playing either team twice would have a demonstrable impact on that team’s SOS. That’s why I decided to use average rank rather than average wins when looking at the four year average SOS.

    Lastly, I back up my simplistic model with a qualitative evaluation of some teams at the top or the bottom of the SOS, If math doesn’t agree with common sense, then there is an issue with one or the other.

    So if anyone argues that the conclusion that UNC had an easy schedule was only because they were so good….just walk away. Those people are too stupid to waste time arguing with.

    #120010

    PapaJohn
    Participant

    Nice work, really impressive. Interesting read.

    #120011

    NCSU88
    Participant

    Well presented. Very interesting.

    #120012

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    VAWolf is a national treasure, even if our politics and musical taste may differ! 😀

    #120026

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    BJD, you forgot to include your unnatural affection for cats. 😉

    Specifically with UNC, their schedule was weak because they played home/away with two of the three worst teams in the ACC. Now don’t make a big deal out of that with any UNC acquaintances because State was one of those worst teams.

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