ACC Basketball – One Month Left

Photo from Rob Kinnan, USA TODAY Sports

 

Before we get to our normal tables, graphs, and discussions, we have some background stuff that needs to be covered:

RABBIT TRAIL #1

On Saturday, I saw someone say that beating ND by a big margin would help State’s RPI.

NO!

NO!!

NO!!!

Obviously it’s been a while since I’ve given my RPI Primer….so here we go again.

The Rating Percentage Index was developed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to help selecting at-large bids and then seeding the NCAAT. I don’t think that we need to discuss the details of the formula, but it has three (and only three) inputs:

  • Team’s Winning Percentage (adjusted for road/home/neutral location)
  • Opponent’s Winning Percentage (with the results of your game removed)
  • Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage

So do the math for all 351 Division 1 basketball teams and then sort from largest to smallest. Number the sorted RPI’s from 1-351 and you have the RPI Ranking which is usually shortened to just “RPI”. Not only does point spread not matter, who you beat doesn’t affect the RPI calculations (though who you beat is important on Selection Sunday). For instance, If State went 1-1 at home against UNC and WF, their RPI ranking would be the same no matter which of the two teams State beat.

People occasionally like to rant about how horrible the RPI formula is. If the formula were blindly used to select the NCAAT teams, then they would have a point. But the RPI is just part of the selection process and thus not worth the time it takes to bitch about.

 

RABBIT TRAIL #2

The other big mistake that people make is to bitch about the RPI because of a game-to-game change that they’re not happy with. The key point that some people don’t seem to understand is that what happens to the ranking from one game to the next depends not only on the outcome of the game under discussion, but the results of every team around yours in the rankings.

To illustrate what I’m talking about, here is a graph showing the RPI versus Ranking for the top 80 teams:

What I want you to see is that the “Delta” from one team to the next varies as you go through the standings. So if there is a big gap from one team to the next, then it may take more than one favorable game to overtake the next higher team. On the other hand, there are regions where the total difference between a handful of teams is very small….thus a loss will drop you quickly through the group of teams that are bunched together.

So when we look at the trend graphs, I try to summarize what happened and then the graph shows how much that week’s results helped or hurt. If it doesn’t make sense, then you can rest assured that the unexpected result came because of the gap between teams or what happened to those teams on either side of the team in question.

So with all of that behind us, let’s go to the Trend Graphs

 

RPI TREND GRAPHS

ESPN’s RPI numbers are gakked up this morning. I’ve seen this before and it may get fixed today, but maybe not. So all of the numbers are from Sunday’s ESPN report, except for BC (from CBS this morning).

UVa had another 2-0 week to remain at #1.

The road loss to St John’s dropped Duke to their lowest point since at least the start of ACC play. Here’s an article if you want to know more details on the Duke loss.

Clemson got a nice boost in their ranking by beating UNC at home. They followed that up with a win at WF for a 2-0 week.

UNC’s graph is rather strange. Neither their loss at Clemson, nor their win at home over Pitt budged their ranking.

Miami also beat Pitt at home, but still dropped a little in the rankings (in direct contrast to UNC). But their RPI ranking bounced back up with a road win over VT.

L’ville had a bad week (0-2) to drop down a little.

SYR and FSU got upset on the road mid-week (GT and WF respectively) and dropped into the Bubble Zone. (Note that State has road trips to Atlanta and Winston-Salem remaining on their schedule.) But FSU recovered with a road win at L’ville to move back to IN.

SYR followed up the loss to GT with an absolute beat down by UVa on Saturday to stay in the Bubble Zone (for now).

State’s results are less-than desired since the home win over ND didn’t make up for the drop it got with no mid-week game.

ND extended their losing streak to seven and has fallen off the Bubble.

VT and BC both had a 1-1 week to bounce around the outer edges of the Bubble (though BC is on the wrong side of the line).

 

RABBIT TRAIL #3

This is the last rabbit trail (for this week).

Over the last several weeks, State, BC, and ND have had their scheduled break and all three dropped in the rankings during that break. Since this drop occurred in essentially the same region of the Bubble, what conclusions can we draw from this?

If we look at the winning percentage for teams ranked from 50-75, we find that the teams are winning about two games out of three. So if the teams are grouped tightly enough, it’s not surprising that a few teams would move past you when you aren’t playing.

So why does this change matter? Let’s go back to last week’s discussion where I argued that a 4-5 record down the stretch wouldn’t make State a lock for the NCAAT. My argument was based only on logic…sound logic, but no real proof. But if we look at dropping in the rankings without playing, then how much would State drop if they finish the regular season with a losing record over the last half of the conference schedule? Now they still might make the NCAAT, but they certainly wouldn’t be a lock.

This explanation still might not be enough for some of the dimmer members of our fan base, so here’s another piece of data. In 2009, Penn State got left out of the NCAAT with the following resume:

Win/Loss 22-11
Conf W/L 10-8
RPI 68
SOS 92
OOC SOS 304
vs 1-25 2-4
vs 26-50 4-5

 

This Penn St example should be adequate rebuttal to those who claim that State’s OOC schedule or that their RPI wouldn’t keep State out of the NCAAT because of State’s good wins. If you go back to the entry where we discussed this Penn St decision, you would see that two teams from the Big 10 got at-large bids with worse conference records BUT much better RPI rankings. So once again we see that RPI matters. It’s not the only thing that matters, but it does matter.

This whole discussion brings us back to my formula for making the NIT:

Miserable OOC schedule +
Mediocre conference performance +
Mediocre conference tourney performance =
NIT

So if you want to be a lock before the ACCT starts, you better win enough to move your RPI away from the burst point of the Bubble if you have a terrible OOC schedule…like State does this year.

One last thing….in the past State has moved off of the Bubble and into the NCAAT with big wins in the ACCT. It happened two or three times during the Sendek era (the exact number is up for debate) and once with Gott (when State played in the First Four). I was shocked that State made the NCAAT with TJ Warren, but I certainly didn’t suggest that State should turn down the bid. So the ACCT remains the last chance for the desperate.

Now back to our normal tables and discussion:

 

RPI SUMMARY TABLE

I was pretty pessimistic last week about Syracuse, but Joe Lunardi laid it out better than I did:

My head says the Orange (15-6, 4-4) [now 4-6] are overachieving and don’t have quite enough to land an NCAA bid. They are 0-5 against the best teams on their schedule to date and must still host Virginia and North Carolina while visiting Louisville, Miami and Duke. A winning ACC record seems too much to ask.

  • Note if you really like figuring out where the thin line between the First Four and the NIT are, then you should click the Lunardi link above. He goes through examples of where Syracuse fell just on one side or the other over the last decade.

L’ville still only has one Top 50 win…on the road at FSU. Of course this past week they returned the favor when they lost the return game with FSU. I’m not going to make a big deal out of this today, but it is highly unusual for an ACC team to have only one Top 5o RPI win this late in the season while having a Top 25 RPI.  In any event, you can add L’ville to the list of teams with tough finishes to their schedule. They still have games left against UNC, Duke, and UVA along with road trips to Blacksburg and Raleigh.

On Sunday night, State was listed in 67 of 79 brackets on the Bracket Matrix. That might not be worth a whole lot, but it sure is fun to see. But the average seed was 10.64, so it wouldn’t take many losses to disappear real fast.

So far, The Dance Card hasn’t updated their web site yet for this season. With the change in the selection process this year, I don’t know if they are taking a wait and see approach or not. I wish they would update so that we could see if the new system has any real effect on the overall selection process.

 

ACC STANDINGS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The bottom of the ACC is starting to look really bad…and UVa continues to run away from everyone else.

VT has now lost to both FSU and UM at home. Those aren’t horrible losses by any means, but VT needs wins badly. They still have two games left against Duke, road games against UVA, Duke, and Miami along with Clemson and L’ville at home. As I said the other week, I don’t like their chances.

To the best of my memory, State never got a one-round bye in the 12 team ACC and certainly hasn’t gotten a two-round bye in our current ginormous configuration. They might not get there this year, but you have to admit that it looks nice to be tied for fourth place. Miami and Duke are still tracking for the two easiest ACC schedules, so I don’t think that State can pass them…but that’s why they play the games.

 

UPCOMING ACC SCHEDULE

Based on the predictive algorithms at Team Rankings and RPI Wizard, this will be State’s toughest week remaining in the regular season. My source (ie friend who actually watches VT BB) says that VT is weak inside and usually gets out rebounded. He also says that their outside shooting runs hot and cold. So we’ll soon see if he knows what he’s talking about or not.

I’m quickly losing hope/interest in the teams currently at the bottom of the conference standings. It seems like those six teams are playing the top half of the conference this week which doesn’t leave many interesting games. Other than the State games, there are only a couple of games that I MIGHT watch:

Monday night might be one of the final nails in SYR’s coffin. I really don’t care that much so I’ll see if there’s anything interesting on and check in on the game from time to time.

FSU has pulled plenty of upsets at home over the years, so I’ll watch to see if they have anything for UVA.

Be prepared for the hype surrounding the first matchup of the Blues this week. The best advice I’ve seen on this game from the perspective of a State fan is to always pull for the visiting team. If the visitors win, then you’ll get a chance to laugh at the crowd shots as the bad news starts to sink in to the home crowd.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Home Forums ACC Basketball – One Month Left

This topic contains 26 replies, has 13 voices, and was last updated by  44rules 10 months ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 27 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #130012

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Before we get to our normal tables, graphs, and discussions, we have some background stuff that needs to be covered
    [See the full post at: ACC Basketball – One Month Left]

    #130016

    freshmanin83
    Participant

    Well from this Packs fan perspective I see the blues play on Thursday before unx comes too Raleigh so I am pulling for a quadruple overtime game.

    #130017

    ncsu1987
    Participant

    Hey, Va, it’s obvious to even the most casual reader the amount of work and thought that goes into each of these installments. I don’t take time often enough to thank you, so…..thank you!

    I do think, based on our previous “conversations” that you (like me) just enjoy this sort of exercise, so you’d probably do most of this for your own satisfaction, even without a convenient podium. So I guess what I should actually thank you for is sharing this work with us!

    #130018

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I do think, based on our previous “conversations” that you (like me) just enjoy this sort of exercise, so you’d probably do most of this for your own satisfaction, even without a convenient podium.

    Thanks for the kind words.

    It’s strange that you mention this as I was wondering just this morning exactly what I would do if SFN went away. I don’t have an answer to that hypothetical, but I would never had studied the selection process as much as I have if not for SFN.

    #130020

    WolftownVA81
    Participant

    I’ll echo the thanks above. No way I have the kind of time or knowledge to pull together the detailed information you’ve provided. It’s much appreciated. I’m on travel later this week with a buddy from VT so we’ll be watching together in San Antonio while sipping margaritas. Should be an interesting match up. I think when we pass the ball (no ball hogging) and hit a fair number of three’s to keep the D honest, we can play with anyone.

    #130021

    Texpack
    Participant

    Nicely written as always.

    Until I see several good games on the road from this team I will remain very concerned about our chances, because our weakest opponents down the stretch don’t visit the PNC.

    #130024

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    First Dance Card of the season released:

    If you don’t know what I’m talking about, I wrote about them last year:
    http://www.statefansnation.com/2017/02/the-dance-card-2/#sthash.czftEt8P.dpbs

    Here’s their site:
    http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

    #130025

    44rules
    Participant

    Yes, thanks VAWolf. Love these write-ups. Even though some of it is above my poor little head …

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

    #130029

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    ESPN straightened out their issues if anyone cares.

    Here’s their summary for the ACC

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/2

    #130040

    theTHRILL
    Participant

    Be prepared for the hype surrounding the first matchup of the Blues this week. The best advice I’ve seen on this game from the perspective of a State fan is to always pull for the visiting team.

    Nope. The answer is that you ALWAYS pull against the Holes.

    ALWAYS

    #130041

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^Without ANY DOUBT !!!

    The Dookies should mortally wound the Holes and cut out their Souls…
    Uncle Roy limping into the PNC with a cane would be a bonus…

    It’s not really that complicated…

    Dook’s BIGS — Bagley and Carter can dominate Maye and Pinson… if they touch the ball enough in the right places…

    Dook’s outside shooters are better than Jo-L… if they touch the ball enough in the right places…

    Cameron Johnson may be the Holes wildcard… but he CAN NOT beat Dook by himself…

    So that game will hinge on ONE THING — whether or NOT Grayson decides to play TEAM ball… and pass the ball to his freshmen in the right places…

    Thus, once again on Tobacco Road, it comes down to Coaching and who wants it more …

    The only people Uncle Roy can get any extra out of is the ‘Whine and Cheese’ crowd sitting in the stands…

    I’ll bet my dollar that Coach Rat speaks to Grayson in persuasive ways…

    with edits… dpaif!
    POP!!!

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #130042

    dallas-pack
    Participant

    Thanks VaWolf82, love your write ups. Long time SFN reader but don’t post much.

    #130047

    choppack1
    Participant

    Great stuff as always Vawolf.

    It’s really interesting to see the Delta’s between the old RPI’s and the new socially engineered RPIs. (I say this because the new RPI was created with an intention – and that intent was not to rank the teams as purely as possible.)

    Great news that we are “in” according to dance card. We are kind of at a high point in terms of conference record, so we need to maintain from here on out to stay on the right side of the bubble.

    #130050

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Great news that we are “in” according to dance card. We are kind of at a high point in terms of conference record, so we need to maintain from here on out to stay on the right side of the bubble.

    I won’t feel comfortable until the RPI is in the mid-50s because alot of my “bad” examples have RPI’s in the 60s.

    I’m afraid that an RPI in the 60s will require a Thursday win in the ACCT. Luckily, no one other than UVA looks unbeatable right now.

    #130054

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Ya’ll did notice the ‘Cuse did us a favor last night in Louisville, didn’t you?

    GO PACK!!

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #130055

    freshmanin83
    Participant

    ^ I did notice and also noticed that on Miami’s schedule they still have to play Va. and at Unx.

    #130056

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Ya’ll did notice the ‘Cuse did us a favor last night in Louisville, didn’t you?

    How so?

    #130057

    Texpack
    Participant

    Ya’ll did notice the ‘Cuse did us a favor last night in Louisville, didn’t you?

    How so?

    Agree with VaWolf comment. Syracuse and UL could both be headed for the bubble. If you are talking about the quest for the double bye, then ok. I still think that is Fantasy Island stuff at this point. Talk to me with a week to go.

    #130058

    44rules
    Participant

    Sign me up for Fantasy Island, Tex. I’d love to live there. Beats reality any day.

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

    #130059

    ryebread
    Participant

    A double bye and a tournament bid would be beyond my wildest dreams for this season. I like that we can at least dare to dream about both of these things. The reality is that we need to keep winning to get to both, and there are a lot of games ahead of us.

    Great analysis as always. Beating ND didn’t “help” us because playing them probably hurt us. At the same time, losing to them, given their current tailspin and where they will likely end up, would have hurt us. It was a must win game, even if it wasn’t a resume builder.

    What I look for at this time of the year is who left is still hungry. I think that hunger factor has dropped a bit given we no longer have double round robin. It’s more about what teams have a chance. We will face hungry teams in VT, UNC, Louisville, FSU and Syracuse. There are a lot of tough games left for us from teams who clearly will be giving us their best shot.

    #130060

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Ha! After we beat the Cards and the Orangemen… ya’ll will understand…

    GO PACK!

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #130062

    freshmanin83
    Participant

    So the Pack is kind of where most teams are if they want to get to where they want to go they need to stay hungry and win.

    #130068

    choppack1
    Participant

    Vawolf without a doubt an RPI in the 60s would mean we would have to win at least 2 games in the ACC tournament.

    However, I also believe an RPI in the 60s means we finished 9-9 vs 10-8. I am not as confident as I once was that 10-8 would get us there… but we will see how our RPI moves if we do that

    Like you, I want us in top 40 in old RPI come selection Sunday. (And per Dance card, we ain’t that far off.)

    #130267

    MrPlywood
    Participant

    The Holes hold on against Dook, so they come to Raleigh with some momentum. Hope the home court advantage is just that. KK needs to get the boys fired up. No easy layups!

    #130268

    wolfmanmat
    Participant

    The holes played out of their minds tonight and made everything they threw up there. They play like that again and we are in trouble. That said, they haven’t played like that twice all season. It won’t happen again Saturday. They will be hungover.

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