One More Week

Since the ACC’s only Thursday night game is going as expected, it seems safe enough to use Thursday morning’s RPI data for our weekly update:

It’s interesting to note that UNC has the fewest Top-50 wins among those teams rated as IN.

On Monday morning, I noticed that GT had moved past Clemson on the Dance Card rankings. Two consecutive wins in games that went down to the wire moved GT up nicely. But this is probably the only place that you will see GT listed as “on the Bubble”. With their RPI and Top-50 wins, you might be thinking that State has earned a NCAAT bid from worse positions than this. But if you look at GT’s conference record, I figure that their late surge is probably going to end up “too little, too late”.

In a strange quirk of mathematical irony, Pitt lost two Top 50 wins with their road win at Syracuse….since SYR drop to #51 immediately after the loss and then to #54 with no mid-week game. But I like Jerry Palm’s (cbssports.com) classification for both SYR and Pitt as “In for Now”.

The Dance Card tries to turn the selection process into black and white, but it looks like the professors would agree with Palm:

I may have to take a closer look at the Dance Card calcs for previous years, because the “Chance of Bid” column makes it look like the Bubble is going to be tougher to climb over than recent years. I find it interesting that in one week, the “Chance of Bid” improved dramatically for quite a few teams. With such slight differences from one team to the next, Bubble Teams really need to win and move further from the edge.

Note that the Bubble would be even tougher to climb if L’ville and SMU weren’t ineligible for post-season play.

 

TREND GRAPHS

 

I dropped back to the usual scale for this graph…which drops SYR and Pitt onto the Bubble Graph.

L’ville’s three-game win streak is paying dividends (if you’re going for moral victories).

Based on their graph, it’s a little surprising to see that ND has won four of their last five games. But their last two were a loss at GT and a win against WF…both of which hurt their RPI ranking.

The top five (not counting L’ville) are playing for NCAAT seeding, and Pitt/SYR are fighting to secure their spot in the NCAAT field. I decided to list the opponents remaining for the top seven in one place to get a sense of who has the easiest/hardest path remaining. Games against the top eight (including L’ville) are highlighted to help with the illustration:

UVA – UNC, @Clemson, L’ville

UNC – @UVA, SYR, @Duke

Miami – L’ville, @ND, @VT

Duke – @Pitt, WF, UNC

ND – @FSU, UM, NCSU

Pitt – Duke, @VT, @GT

SYR – NCSU, @UNC, @FSU

It’s interesting that the three teams with the lowest RPI ranking have the easiest schedules…which should help cement seven bids for the ACC.

There are still too many possibilities to discuss among the teams at the top. But the two main possibilities are that one team will take a big step forward and claim a top NCAAT seed OR the teams at the top will eat their own and the ACC won’t get a one seed. So the last eight days of the regular season should be interesting, even if State’s games aren’t.

 

 

FSU’s late-season swoon reminds me of Herb’s fourth(?) year where a late-game collapse against UMD blossomed into something like a seven-game losing streak. State went from working for a NCAAT bid to yet another trip to the NIT. (If memory serves, State chose black uniforms for that UMD game.) The way the NIT selection process has changed since then, FSU may not even get a bid to the original losers’ tournament. (Can anyone explain to me why we need TWO losers’ tournaments?)

If GT continues their miraculous turn-around, then we’ll give them a more thorough examination in the Last Look at The Bubble before the ACCT.

 

ACC STANDINGS

It will be interesting to see if ND can turn their easier schedule down the stretch into a two-round bye.

FSU’s collapse has moved them from looking good for a NCAAT bid to fighting (and currently losing) for the last slot on Wednesday in the ACCT.

Last week, it looked like one of the Techs would escape ACCT Tuesday for the first time. Now they both may move out of a Tuesday slot.

VT plays @WF and then Pitt and UM at home. So they have a shot at finishing the year with a 0.500 ACC record…which would be a remarkable accomplishment in Buzz’s second year. Even if they don’t reach 0.500, they have certainly exceeded all expectations.

As we discussed in the forums on Thursday, State is 0-4 against FSU, VT, and GT…meaning that State would lose all tie-breakers over the Tue/Wed games. Thus there is essentially no chance for State to move out of a Tuesday ACCT game.

 

ACC SCHEDULE

The way this year has gone, I’m glad that State’s Senior Night is against BC.

Would it really be that difficult to arrange the schedule so that State’s last game is against WF, alternating between Raleigh and Winston-Salem?

In fact, why can’t the last Saturday include the natural rivalries that are already built into the concept of defined rivals…to go along with UNC/Duke?

  • NCSU vs WF
  • FSU vs Miami
  • GT vs Clemson
  • UVA vs VT
  • Any rivalry that I’ve missed?

Someone has to have the last Saturday off, so rotate the off game among the other five teams….or rotate the last game off among everyone, with the rivalry game played most years. It shouldn’t be that difficult, but it doesn’t look like anyone cares.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

15-16 Basketball ACC Teams Stat of the Day

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This topic contains 40 replies, has 21 voices, and was last updated by  bill.onthebeach 2 years, 2 months ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 41 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #100193

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Since the ACC’s only Thursday night game is going as expected, it seems safe enough to use Wednesday morning’s RPI data for our weekly update:
    [See the full post at: One More Week]

    #100194

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Because nobody matters but the Blues, silly goose. DUH!

    #100195

    Wufpacker
    Participant

    I am horrified that I am reduced to rooting for daU.
    There is no God.

    #100196

    Rick
    Keymaster

    I am horrified that I am reduced to rooting for daU.
    There is no God.

    I just don’t watch. Who wants to watch the cheaters or the trippers?

    #100197

    ryebread
    Participant

    Making the tournament has become so “scientific” that you can kind of tell how it is shaping up before the conference slate even starts. After the non-conference slate, this looked like a 6-7 bid conference. It still looks like a 6-7 bid conference (though Louisville’s DQ is part of that).

    I’m ready for this season to be over. The Pack has been awful in a historically bad ACC.

    #100198

    RickJ
    Participant

    Clemsoning is alive & well in basketball.

    #100199

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    The Pack has been awful in a historically bad ACC.

    I agree with the first half, but not the second. Hopefully, I’ll have more on that after the regular season concludes.

    #100200

    Adventuroo
    Participant

    Noticed that two things are seemingly under the radar….and, one at this point, is positive.

    The Lady Wolves did a great job last night against FSU (#12). It was a see-saw battle and the rebounding told the tale.

    Even though it was only a 4 point FSU victory, it was tied most of the way in the 4th Quarter. Wes Moore has really done a great job with no major (No Offense, but there ain’t no Britteney or whomever on the squad) “WNBA Future Stars”. The Gals went into depression after the ND fiasco, but finally kicked their PTSD and roared back against Sylvia and the Kool-Aid Kids.

    The men are NOW short one more body. Lennard Freeman reinjured his leg in the UNC game and is, effectively, OUT for the rest of the season. WRAL and the N&O are reporting the same info.

    Wonder if Shaun Kirk will see action or if we see some of the walkon’s. Pity….but not unexpected. We have, despite our plight, not been impacted by a mid-season injury….but the law of averages caught up with up.

    I will need several more shots of caffeine to digest all of VA’s info and data….but VERY GOOD….

    #100201

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    According to this link, a third loser tournament (for mid/low majors) already exists and a fourth one is being added this year.

    New in 2016 is the Vegas 16, a 5-day postseason tournament featuring 16 teams playing all games in Las Vegas in the week leading up to the Final Four.

    http://bracketmatrix.com/nit

    For what it’s worth, this site has Clemson, FSU, and GT in the NIT.

    #100203

    13OT
    Participant

    The new and improved ACC makes every game except one a long trip for the visiting team. Of course, the Blues continue to get the advantage of not having to travel that weekend before the ACCT, as always.

    The Wolfpack should be playing WF the final game of the season, but instead has to go to the Chicago area, and then turn around 3 days later and play in DC. Since the WF game was removed as the season finale, the Pack has had a lot of long trips just before the ACCT. This lack of concern for travel, especially with the move to get the ACCT as far from Tobacco Road as possible, is not going to help the league in the NCAAT. I was hoping for only 5 teams in, but fear that Syracuse will probably make it.

    But for those who insist the ACC is so great this season, I believe all but maybe UVA will be bounced early from the NCAAT.

    The ACC to me isn’t the ACC anymore. It’s a new Big East, with its ugly and dirty brand of basketball minus the local rivalries we used to have that have been replaced by ESPN. Our local teams have way too many long trips, with Monday games, and their fans couldn’t care any less about these matchups. If you think DC will be an expensive location for the ACCT, just wait until it goes to NYC.

    #100204

    44rules
    Participant

    I feel much the same way, 13OT. I used to watch a lot of ACC basketball, even the blues. And except for the Great Satan in Chapel Swill, I always rooted for our teams out of conference. It’s increasingly gotten to where I just watch (or listen if I can’t find it on free TV or Sling) to N.C. State. And this year I’m really just watching Cat. And while I guess I want ACC teams to win out of conference, I rarely even check the scores, much less watch the games.

    If I didn’t grow up a State fan and go to school there, I probably would have bagged it years ago.

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

    #100212

    PapaJohn
    Participant

    RPI?
    Nope, RIP

    #100213

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    yeah, I wouldn’t say this ACC is historically bad at all. Not exactly memorable, but certainly solid. BC notwithstanding.

    That said…therein lies our last REAL goal with Frenchie out. NOT to lose at home to those guys.

    #100220

    ryebread
    Participant

    Hmm…The combined ACC and Big East is still the 3rd ranked conference in RPI. The traditional ACC part of that (plus FSU minus Maryland) has 3 RPI top 15 teams, but the rest are currently 72 or lower. Put another way, the real ACC is going to put 3 teams in this year (and 4 if you count Maryland). That’s about as weak as it’s been since the tournament went to 64.

    Now let’s look at our record against those ACC teams:
    Duke: 0-2
    UNC: 0-2
    UVA: 0-1
    GT: 0-1
    WF: 1-1
    Clemson: 1-0
    FSU: 0-1

    That’s a killer 2-8 against “our” conference brethren. Of that group, only 3 are tournament bound.

    So yeah, I think the Pack has been awful in a historically bad ACC.

    But yeah, I’m with BJD. We’d better beat BC.

    #100223

    PackMagic83
    Participant

    With all the depressing facts for this season, the one bit of info for next season that I haven’t seen mentioned on this site, is that according to the ESPN100 list for NCAAMBB, NCSU is still in the running for 3 uncommitted 4 or 5 star players, including a PF. I think some players are waiting until the season is over to commit. Perhaps looking for PT. Hey, I think we have PT to give out next season.

    #100225

    ryebread
    Participant

    I went back and looked and there were several years that the ACC (with Maryland) only put 4 teams in. I guess this isn’t a historically bad year for the league. It’s not a good one though, and it’s pretty disappointing to merge the ACC and the Big East and STILL only have the RPI #3 league.

    #100226

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    ah, but things would be different if the teams were still in the old leagues. You can’t assume stasis that way.

    Dude, if you’ns a 4/5 star player, and you watch NC State play and are worried about finding minutes…

    #100229

    DrWuffette1day
    Participant

    I went to 2 games this year and our winning percentage was .500 (Wake and GT). I had a delightful lemonade and pretzel at each game. That is a great season.

    #100230

    DrWuffette1day
    Participant

    Damn, we suck.

    #100232

    choppack1
    Participant

    As fate has it I have had to work a bunch of weekends… And this year that has not been a problem. Losign conference record in football and basketball, swept by the heels.

    Georgia Tech is interesting. Gregory’s seat had to be boiling in hotlanta. Hopefully, he eeks out an NCAA play-in game.

    #100233

    pakfanistan
    Participant

    I was at the Carolina football game this year. It was brutal. War crimes brutal.

    #100234

    john of sparta
    Participant

    bad season for us: football, basketball, and YES baseball.
    i just don’t care about the non-revenuers.
    win and pay your way.
    Yow?

    #100235

    ryebread
    Participant

    BJD: Not sure I follow. We’re 2-8 against the “old” ACC. Add Matlyand to that group and we’d at least have one more loss there, so 2-9. Granted double round robin might give us a chance to get one against GT or FSU and maybe another against Clemson, but it’s also mean another thrashing by UVA, and realistically two losses to this year’s Maryland team. We’d be bad.

    The league itself would be top heavy with UNC, UVA, Maryland and Duke. The rest would rack up the losses against that group.

    The ACC’s RPI is mostly established in the non-conference. With 5 teams sitting at 72 or higher, it wouldn’t have been good.

    Now maybe your point is that the Big East teams would be broken out separately, but I don’t really see those as what is “holding the league down.” They’re kind of stratified like the ACC teams.

    #100237

    coyotejoe
    Participant

    “Sail with the Pilot, at the wheel”…anybody remember?

    N&O ran an article about DT and Towe with the Alley Oop…glad I’m old enough to remember…at least we have our history. If you look at stats since 1987, it seems that no one in Raleigh at State College gives a crap about our history.

    #100238

    choppack1
    Participant

    You know I just watched someone get their tooth pulled out by a Lamborghini… Fo real – on jack arse 3d.

    It was quicker than a state game!

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