ACC Basketball Weekly Update

Strange week in that the “mid-week” games were front-loaded on Monday and Tuesday, with only two games total left for Wed and Thursday. Oh and the two games on Wed and Thurs weren’t worth the time to watch. Wednesday’s game was against two teams in the bottom third with nothing left to play for and FSU didn’t bother to put much effort into their game against Syracuse. So let’s move onto the RPI Table…

RPI TABLE

Since UNC managed to stop their two-game losing streak after squeezing by BC, I don’t know that there is anything else dramatically interesting to discuss. We’ll get a better read on UNC over the next few weeks since State is the only team they’ll play before the ACCT that doesn’t have a good shot at the NCAAT.

I’ve put the ACC standings immediately below this section so that you can scroll up and down as we go over a few things.

With only two games separating 4th place (ignoring UL) and 9th place, there are too many possibilities to discuss…with the possible exception that I may have written UVA off a little too soon. They look like they’ve recovered from back-to-back losses to the two Techs and are on a 7-game winning streak. Remember that their last two weeks are pretty tough (@Miami, UNC, @Clemson, L’ville), so don’t pencil them in for a #2 seed just yet.

I’ve been picking on Duke and UNC for their easy conference schedules to date. I thought we would take a broader look and make some projections on where the conference SOS will end up at the conclusion of the regular season.

The simplistic approach to conference SOS that I’ve used the last couple of years is to total the wins for each team’s home/away opponents. With the bottom four teams being so bad this year, it doesn’t take much of a system to pick out which teams will likely end up with the hard/easy awards this year by focusing on who doubles (or triples) up on the bottom four teams and who only plays a total of four games against the Bottom Four.

Easiest

Notre Dame – GT, WF, BC (and UM)

UNC – State, BC (and Duke, SYR)

Clemson – GT, BC (and UVA, FSU)

Duke – State, WF (and UNC, UL)

 

Hardest

UVA – L’ville, Clemson, Miami, VT

Miami – UVA, ND, FSU, VT

BC and GT will both exceed these two, but does it really matter?

 

ACC STANDINGS

At this time of the season, we often talk about the muddled middle fighting over each other for a spot in the NCAAT. This year there are enough wins available for everyone still in contention. They just have to be good enough to earn them. The one thing that I watch for is those teams huddling around 0.500 in conference. You absolutely do not want a losing conference record entering into the ACCT.

Pitt started out 3-0 and then started to tail off; going 3-5 over the last month. Pitt could stand to improve their position, but a Top-25 win and a total of three Top-50 wins exceed the minimum threshold that we’ve seen going back to the days of the Herbble.

Syracuse is riding a four-game winning streak and 7 of their last eight. While a number of those wins are not impressive, wins are always better than losses. Three Top-25 wins and a total of five Top 50 wins puts them in pretty good shape as long as they don’t suddenly start following Clemson’s example…

Clemson lost two of three on their road trip and then lost to ND at home. That kind of performance is not going to get the job done. The only game they have left against a probable NCAAT team is UVA on March 1. So they really need to rack up wins now to keep from needing big wins in the ACCT. It’s a shame that a team with six Top-50 wins can’t even make Jerry Palm’s (CBS Sports) bottom rung on his Bubble Watch. On The Dance Card, they’re seven spots below the burst line…and that was before they lost to ND. Bottom line, lots of ground to make up and as easy of a schedule as you’ll likely find in a P5 conference. If they can’t clean up in those games, then they probably don’t deserve a NCAAT bid.

 

TREND GRAPHS

I de-cluttered this graph by only including the last four weeks AND I’ve kept the extended version of “IN” for now. I’m keeping my eyes on Pitt, SYR, and FSU to see if they can lock in a spot in the NCAAT before the ACCT starts.

 

I’ve de-cluttered this graph by removing the teams that are irrelevant for a discussion of the NCAAT. This graph nicely illustrates that it is possible to dig yourself out of a hole. If Clemson can pick up the pace, their conference season will show the biggest turnaround I’ve seen since I’ve been tracking RPI.

 

UPCOMING GAMES

Even though this season has been miserable for State fans, it is nice that there are a good number of interesting games to watch if you’re so inclined.

Two things to pull for during a Duke/UNC game:

  • Sink hole to open up and swallow the stadium
  • Pull for visitors to win so that you watch the crying co-eds in the stands

(Shamelessly stolen from a Pack Pride thread years ago.)

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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This topic contains 6 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  choppack1 3 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #99222

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Strange week in that the “mid-week” games were front-loaded on Monday and Tuesday, with only one game on Wed and Thursday. Oh and the two games on Wed
    [See the full post at: ACC Basketball Weekly Update]

    #99231

    ryebread
    Participant

    VaWolf: Do we still have over 12k lifetime rights holders? I’d be surprised if that were the case.

    #99232

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    THANK YOU for still posting this, despite the dreadful, dull-assed week.

    #99233

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Also, there should totes be MOAR HYPE for a 103 vs. 104 showdown.

    #99441

    MrPlywood
    Participant

    Not sure if this deserves a new topic, so I’ll leave it here for now. I caught the tail end of the Dook/Hoos game, and the announcers mentioned that VA hasn’t beat Dook at Dook since 1995. I believe that’s when State’s losing streak at Dook started. Having one team experience that much futility is one thing, but two? For all I know there might be more… Clemson? You’d think there’d be an outlier win or two in that stretch somewhere along the line.

    Anyway, as I pondered that thought while driving around, I heard on the radio that the punchable one’s (G. Allen) final shot should not have counted. So here’s the evidence. Tendencies.

    #99503

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    VaWolf: Do we still have over 12k lifetime rights holders? I’d be surprised if that were the case.

    Why would you be surprised?

    You need to talk to one of the Wolfpack Club movers/shakers if you want definitive numbers. But I just checked the attendance numbers for last year and State ranked #12 nationwide. So I don’t see any reason to think that a significant number of people have walked away from LTRs.

    I haven’t checked these numbers recently but even in the dark days of Sid, State still ranked in the Top 25.

    http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/Reports/attend/2015.pdf

    #99505

    choppack1
    Participant

    I think we use the same calculation for our basketball attendance that chapel hill uses for their football attendance.

    Regarding the Duke game, why do I think the refs would have called us for either walking or up and down in the same situation where we at Cameron?

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