State wins at (9) Louisville

14-15 Basketball65

State played its way back onto the bubble with a big 74-65 must-win at 9th-ranked Louisville today.

Barber led all scorers with 21, Lacey added 14 and Anya had three blocks.

This was the type of game State had struggled to finish against Notre Dame and Virginia.

State has a week to prepare for Virginia Tech in Raleigh next Saturday (certainly another must-win, as they’ll all probably be from now on).

Box Score (ESPN)

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14-15 Basketball

Home › Forums › State wins at (9) Louisville

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  • 02/15/2015 at 9:58 AM #74472
    BassPacker
    Participant

    Man, we are the lunatic fringe sometimes. After the loss to UVA, we (including me) all were into WTNY mode and at our wits end with this team/coach in general. Now after a win we are all thinking all is well and NCAA again. Its a win after going 2-6 in last 8 games. Don’t get me wrong, I’m as excited as most over yesterdays performance and road win. But still…I’m cautiously optimistic as its only one game and alot of work left to do to even reach bubble statis. I am full of “what if’s” with this team. What if yesterdays team showed up since Jan 1. What if Cat had found his confidence sooner. What if we can go 4-1 to close our regular season. And what if we pull another Clemsonist showing with follow up. And “What is” the life of a State Fan.

    02/15/2015 at 10:11 AM #74473
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Like the old saying (and Red Hot Chili Peppers song) goes – shoulda been, coulda been, woulda been, DID.

    02/15/2015 at 10:41 AM #74475
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    I’m wholly in favor of the new Cat Barber.
    Not to be confused with the new Jan Brady.
    Trevor, Trevor, Trevor!!!
    Would be cool if Danny Trejo and Steve Buscemi could break some kneecaps for us.
    Thus ends my free flow of seemingly unrelated drivel.

    Missed most of the game live, but rewatched on dvr. Cat was purring fo sho, but it was our big men who made the difference IMHO. Workman-like on the glass and kept Harrell quiet and talking to himself all day.

    Take a bow, big boys.

    02/15/2015 at 11:42 AM #74477
    wufpup76
    Keymaster
    Wufpacker wrote:

    but it was our big men who made the difference IMHO. Workman-like on the glass and kept Harrell quiet and talking to himself all day.

    Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe I read in an article that Louisville was 16th in the nation in rebounding margin. We won that battle 47-37. Given the recent (or even season long) struggles on the boards, winning the rebounding battle against Louisville was a surprising key to victory. Very impressive … what a difference it makes in a game.

    Freeman’s stats were not gaudy, but I felt he gave us a defensive and rebounding presence that we haven’t had in some time on the interior. Watching a replay of the game, I almost cried with joy seeing guys stay disciplined and boxing out as opposed to haphazardly flying through the air in hopes of getting a board or a blocked shot.

    02/15/2015 at 11:52 AM #74478
    pakfanistan
    Participant
    wufpup76 wrote:

    Freeman’s stats were not gaudy, but I felt he gave us a defensive and rebounding presence that we haven’t had in some time on the interior.

    The radio crew was raving about his play for as much of the game as I was able to listen to. Really complemented his ability to show and get back to his guy, and his rebounding ability. And given Harrell averages 17 and had 7, sounds like they weren’t just being homers.

    02/15/2015 at 11:55 AM #74479
    redisgood
    Participant

    I’m not sure if it’s been mentioned, but in the past six games, Cat’s turnovers have been zero, zero, one, zero, zero, two. That’s 3 in 6 games. I will go out on a limb and say three turnovers in six games for a point guard who plays well over 30 minutes a game may be unprecedented in ACC play.

    02/15/2015 at 11:57 AM #74480
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Our length is spectacular, as is our athleticism. There’s no reason for us to get pushed around on the boards like we so often do. Perhaps a light bulb has gone off.

    This is one of the many reasons why I never understood WHY there were low pre-season expectations, unless one had a poor opinion of MG as a coach. I really like this collection of players. And the “youth” aspect doesn’t bother me at all.

    02/15/2015 at 12:12 PM #74481
    Rick
    Keymaster

    You never know what you are going to get with this team. Duke and Louisville or Clemson and Wake.
    The question is this game the turning point out Judy another bleep on the radar. Because of the Clemson and wake gave 4-1 is a must.

    02/15/2015 at 12:14 PM #74482
    Rick
    Keymaster
    BJD95 wrote:

    This is one of the many reasons why I never understood WHY there were low pre-season expectations, unless one had a poor opinion of MG as a coach. I really like this collection of players. And the “youth” aspect doesn’t bother me at all.

    I think you answered your own question.
    No I’ve is convinced Got can Juno to the next level.

    02/15/2015 at 12:17 PM #74483
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    ^^^Agreed, BJD.

    I feel others making points about “mid-tier ACC talent” and unrealistic expectations have valid points, but I look at this team and it’s painful to see them at 15-11.

    I felt like the prediction of finishing 9th ACC was shorting this team, yet it may turn out to be extremely accurate. I thought finishing 5th-7th was the real range of this team … They *could* work their way back up to 6th, but I’m hard pressed seeing them finish better than 3-2 down the stretch. Would love to be proven wrong though, yet again.

    02/15/2015 at 12:20 PM #74484
    wufpup76
    Keymaster
    Rick wrote:

    No I’ve is convinced Got can Juno to the next level.

    Eh, I thought it was decent … a little overrated imo.

    02/15/2015 at 12:32 PM #74485
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Right, I thought this team could be in the 5-7 mix, realistically, and be a 6 seed in the NCAAT. I really thought this would be the team that had MG’s true “stamp” on it, and we’d see real growth. It’s been a mixed bag of sorts.

    Subjectively, I like many things about MG’s style, but objectively, we are at the time in his tenure when shitting or getting off the pot needs happening.

    In other words, I’ve seen enough that I still have hope, but also enough that I’m annoyed. Dunno how it all will end. I’m certainly still interested, though.

    02/15/2015 at 12:36 PM #74486
    pakfanistan
    Participant
    BJD95 wrote:

    This is one of the many reasons why I never understood WHY there were low pre-season expectations, unless one had a poor opinion of MG as a coach. I really like this collection of players. And the “youth” aspect doesn’t bother me at all.

    I think it was just coming to terms with losing the ACC POY. It’s fear of the unknown. Last year we may as well have put a saddle on Warren. There was a lot of doubt about whether the other guys could step up to replace his contribution.

    02/15/2015 at 1:04 PM #74490
    DrWuffette1day
    Participant

    Every year, Gott has the team peaking at the right time- no matter the personnel. Yes, he is a great coach and we are lucky to have him.

    We are still rebuilding a program that was lower than pathetic four years ago. It keeps getting better and better. We are beating teams that we should not be beating. We are relying on a sophomore to run our offense.

    I still have a hard time with many of our players’ decision-making skills…. but…. they are having fun and they are leaving it all on the floor. This flaw actually makes me nuts sometimes. Fundamentals are looking better and we do look more disciplined except for Lacey who has obviously been given the green light as a playmaker. All of this is making Wolfpack basketball fun.

    Glad the biased reffing is finally getting some attention. Thank GOD for social media. Otherwise, Swofford wouldn’t be doing squat.

    02/15/2015 at 1:35 PM #74491
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster
    wufpup76 wrote:
    Wufpacker wrote:

    but it was our big men who made the difference IMHO. Workman-like on the glass and kept Harrell quiet and talking to himself all day.

    Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe I read in an article that Louisville was 16th in the nation in rebounding margin. We won that battle 47-37. Given the recent (or even season long) struggles on the boards, winning the rebounding battle against Louisville was a surprising key to victory. Very impressive … what a difference it makes in a game.

    Freeman’s stats were not gaudy, but I felt he gave us a defensive and rebounding presence that we haven’t had in some time on the interior. Watching a replay of the game, I almost cried with joy seeing guys stay disciplined and boxing out as opposed to haphazardly flying through the air in hopes of getting a board or a blocked shot.

    Most people know how much I hate the stat “rebounding margin” so here’s a better way to look at yesterday:

    – Louisville is 53rd in the country in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (35.2%) and 173rd in Defensive Rebounding Percentage (69%), or giving up 31.0% OR to the opposition.
    – Prior to the State game Louisville had OR% = 35.8% and DR% = 69.1, or giving up 30.9% OR to the opposition.
    – In yesterday’s game Louisville had 24.4% OR% and 66.7% DR%.

    State held Louisville 11.4% below it’s OR% avg and 2.4% below it’s DR% avg.

    – NCSU is 83rd in the country in OR% (34.0) and 137th in DR (69.7), or 30.3% OR opp.
    – Prior to yesterday’s game NCSU had OR = 34.1% and DR = 69.2%, or 30.8% OR opp.
    – In yesterday’s game NCSU had OR = 33.3% and DR = 75.6%

    Louisville held NCSU 0.8% below it’s OR avg and but gave up 6.4% above their DR avg.

    What does that mean?

    NC State was much better at defensive rebounding both what they’ve done over the season as well against Louisville’s OR season avg. Thus NCSU really stepped it up on the defensive end which translated into less second chance opportunities for the Cards. Double Positive result.

    NC State was slightly below their season OR avg but was still better against Louisville’s DR season average. Thus NCSU, while not improving on their season average did show they were they better rebounding team on that end of the court in relation to how both teams have played this season. State didn’t get more second chance opportunities than they normally do but Louisville gave up more to State than what they usually do. Positive Result.

    02/15/2015 at 1:43 PM #74492
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster
    BJD95 wrote:

    This is one of the many reasons why I never understood WHY there were low pre-season expectations, unless one had a poor opinion of MG as a coach.

    Not necessarily “poor”…just that I didn’t expect the coaching to take a big step forward because there is a ton of past performance on which to base my expectations. State is actually ahead of my worst-case expectations.

    02/15/2015 at 1:56 PM #74493
    PackFamily
    Participant

    Other than cat’s play, nothing excited me yesterday. I recognize Louisville is top 10 but they played awful, shooting less than 33% from the floor. Maybe that was due to our defense but I’ll wait for us to string several games in a row to feel confident this wasn’t just a one-off

    02/15/2015 at 2:32 PM #74497
    Rick
    Keymaster
    BJD95 wrote:

    Right, I thought this team could be in the 5-7 mix, realistically, and be a 6 seed in the NCAAT. I really thought this would be the team that had MG’s true “stamp” on it, and we’d see real growth. It’s been a mixed bag of sorts.

    Subjectively, I like many things about MG’s style, but objectively, we are at the time in his tenure when shitting or getting off the pot needs happening.

    In other words, I’ve seen enough that I still have hope, but also enough that I’m annoyed. Dunno how it all will end. I’m certainly still interested, though.

    I thought we had the talent to be to five but not the coaching. My his is that is the reason for the ranking.

    02/15/2015 at 2:56 PM #74499
    choppack1
    Participant

    Gott rec recruits well, schedules well and if you are one of the guys playing – appears to be a players coach. I’d say the reason this team is on the bubble right now is the same reason we’ve been on the bubble 3 of his 4 years…we have a couple of bad losses ooc, and we are 1-2 close calls away from being solidly in. Of course, we are also a couple of “bad breaks” away from being solidly out.

    Like others have said – we kind of know we’ll be “on the bubble” most seasons with gott as our coach – if we are lucky. Hopefully this time next year we’ll be in the top 25 and won’t need to go 4-1 in our last 5 conference games to feel confident about selection Sunday.

    02/15/2015 at 3:40 PM #74500
    Tau837
    Participant
    choppack1 wrote:

    TeX – define margin of error. If we go 4-1 we’re in. 3-2, it will come down tournament.

    I agree if we go 4-1 we are in. Assuming the loss would be @UNC, that would be 19-12 (10-8) with no bad losses against a top 10 SOS.

    If we go 3-2 with one of the wins at UNC, we are also in. That would be 18-13 (9-9) against a top 10 SOS with 3 top 15 RPI wins, including 2 on the road.

    I think both of those scenarios are possible, but perhaps not likely.

    If we go 3-2 with a loss to UNC and win over VT (to avoid a very bad loss), I think we will likely be in even without an ACC tournament win, but 1 ACC tournament win would definitely clinch it.

    If we go 2-3, or 3-2 with losses to UNC and VT (which would be the worst loss of the season by far), we probably have to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament, 2 would clinch it.

    If we go 1-4 without beating UNC, we have to make it to the ACC tournament final to have a chance, and probably have to win it.

    If we go 0-5, we have to win the ACC tournament.

    FWIW, Dance Card currently has State with a 99.32% chance at a bid.

    02/15/2015 at 4:04 PM #74502
    ryebread
    Participant

    Good win yesterday. I didn’t see it, but hats off to the players, coaches, support staff, etc. for winning a tough game on the road with their backs against the wall.

    I’ve seen Louisville play a handful of times this year. There are three keys to beating them:
    1) Don’t turn it over. They turn turnovers into momentum changing dunks better than most anyone I’ve seen this year. Great jobs by Lacey and Cat protecting the ball.

    2) Don’t feed “the beast” and by that I mean their center. I think he is the most physically dominant player in the league. ‘Nard and Anya grew up yesterday. Of course part of his success is due to how good he is in transition, which is back to point number 1.

    3) Don’t get down. That 78-2 stat with a halftime lead is amazing.

    As for what this means for the season, we can still dance. We can also still CBI. This team and Gott are just too big of an enigma to say anything “should” happen.

    As for the press radon expectations, we should have been about 6th. That is where I had us. The media vote was due to them shorting us, just like they did last year. I tend to agree with BJD’s comments.

    02/15/2015 at 4:37 PM #74503
    Texpack
    Participant
    choppack1 wrote:

    TeX – define margin of error. If we go 4-1 we’re in. 3-2, it will come down tournament.

    4-1 is my definition. That means we win the games we will be favored in (VT, Cuse & BC?) and split the games where we won’t be favored (CU & UNCCH). That’s a tall order. ‘Cuse and BC will be tough, tough games. Will winning any of those games other than UNCCH really boost our RPI? Losing any of those other than UNCCH will put us begging for helpThere is a lot more to lose than there is to gain over the last five games.

    02/15/2015 at 4:40 PM #74504
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    We will know if we’ve grown up or if we are peaking by how we play against VPI. That game scares the absolute shit out of me.

    Good thing I’m quite full of it. 😀

    02/15/2015 at 4:44 PM #74505
    MrPlywood
    Participant
    ryebread wrote:

    3) Don’t get down. That 78-2 stat with a halftime lead is amazing.

    I forgot about that stat. Cards were only up 1 at the half, but that counts.

    Adventuroo wrote:

    Someone commented that it did not look like a Blow Out.

    I think you’re referring to my comment that the game didn’t look like an “upset”. By that I meant that State looked every bit the equal of L’ville, and not some crazy underdog playing the game of their lives. The Pack looked solid in many aspects yesterday. As I also mentioned, I’m glad that it happened on the road – so no court rush, shake hands, go home, rinse, repeat.

    02/15/2015 at 5:08 PM #74506
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    The two that beat the Cards? The Pack and the Shadow Pack ™.

    Coincidence? I think NOT!

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