While I keep my eye on the bowl projections from national media outlets, I rely more heavily on the insight and work of (the good) local media who not only study the ACC’s bowl situation, but also have an innate and natural feel for how these things happen year in and year out. As fun as it can be to review and analyze the bowl projections from many of the national websites and prognosticators, doing so can often result in miscalculations by fans because most journalists fail to take the time to understand the intricacies of conference bowl selection criteria and protocol. Additionally, they also rarely take the time to factor geographic preferences and history and politics into their projections.
This is not a criticism of the average journalist because I totally recognize that he or she does not and should not have enough time to dive into such minutia for every conference in America. I just find that it is way more valuable to actually understand the selection process and criteria before diving into projections. Oftentimes this will lead to a better understanding of different scenario analyses and the resulting domino effect domino effect of watching where certain teams get slotted in the process.
This year’s bowl scenario analysis is still pretty complicated, even with only one game remaining. In this piece in today’s News & Observer, Joe Giglio breaks down a lot of information for us:
Here’s the easy math: The ACC has 10 bowl-eligible teams (including Notre Dame) with one more guaranteed (the winner of Virginia-Virginia Tech) and one more possibility (5-6 Pittsburgh).
The ACC has nine contracted bowl spots, with room for three more, plus the College Football Playoff. In theory and reality, the league will find a home for all 12 teams, if it comes to that, but where they’ll all end up depends on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The committee is going to meet on Dec. 7 and pick the teams for the playoff and the other four New Year’s bowls.
On the same day, the bowl reps for the games contracted with the ACC will meet in Charlotte and sort out the conference order.
Starting at the top, if Florida State (11-0) beats Florida (6-4) and then Georgia Tech (9-2) in the ACC title game, it will be one of the four teams in the CFP.
If FSU loses, a 6-6 team is danger of getting shut out of a bowl spot.
If FSU is in the playoff, the next highest-ranked ACC team by the committee has a contracted spot in the Orange Bowl. Three ACC teams entered this week ranked: Georgia Tech (18), Clemson (22) and Louisville (24).
Given Louisville has the easiest finish (vs. Kentucky), the odds favor the Cardinals going to Miami in their first year in the ACC.
Here’s where it gets complicated: the Orange Bowl’s contract for the ACC’s opponent is with the highest-ranked team (that’s not the league champion) from the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame.
Notre Dame, perpetually the fly in the rest of the free world’s ointment, is eliminated here but more on them in a second. As of right now, the committee has a second SEC team (Mississippi State) in the top four.
With No. 8 Ole Miss’ loss to Arkansas, No. 10 Georgia (9-2) is next in line for the Orange, followed by No. 11 Michigan State (9-2).
Here’s the ACC twist for you: If a Big Ten team winds up in the Orange Bowl, the ACC gets a spot in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla. on Jan. 1.
That would re-shuffle the whole ACC deck after the Orange Bowl selection.
And enter Notre Dame. For the Irish to jump an ACC team in the league’s bowl order, it has to be within one win. Notre Dame (7-4) finishes the regular season at Southern California.
If Notre Dame wins, it can jump 9-win versions of Duke, Louisville or Clemson in the bowl order. If it loses, it can’t and probably ends up in Charlotte.
The best news for our teams: Duke (8-3 with Wake Forest left) has two potential chances at Orlando (Citrus or Russell Athletic on Dec. 29) and probably won’t fall past the Sun Bowl.
Also, at 7-5, either North Carolina or N.C. State will be able to jump up into the “Tier One” bowls and play in Charlotte, New York, El Paso, Nashville or Jacksonville, Fla.
Plus, any reshuffling helps the UNC-N.C. State loser avoid a trip to Shreveport, La.
Clear as mud?
Don’t worry…it will all be MUCH more clear after Saturday. As for now:
* CBS projects NC State to play UCF in the Biticoin Bowl in St. Petersburg, FL the day after Christmas. (Link)
* One ESPN analyst projects the identical match-up for the Wolfpack while another projects a sexier match-up in a worse location with NC State vs Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. (Link)
If you are worried about Florida State not living up to their stature and advancing to the College Football Playoff (or if you just love numbers), then you will enjoy this entry from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Blog that breaks down the probability of different teams advancing to the ‘Final Four’.
