Oh Yeah, State’s at Syracuse Saturday

Dave Doeren looks for his first league win and State enters a crucial stretch where the game at Syracuse (Saturday 3pm, RSN) has become a must-win to keep realistic bowl hopes alive.

Some stats-based predictions from a different perspective (Syracuse.com):

Five statistics-based developments to look for when Syracuse plays host to N.C. State on Saturday …

1. A.J. Long will not be intercepted. The freshman quarterback looked like he was in line for a tough day last week, and the Clemson defense didn’t disappoint. Should Long start for the rest of this season, that will be most talented opponent he faces.

Things should get tamer this week against an N.C. State defense that has only five interceptions on the season and just two in its last five games (both, oddly enough, were picks of Florida State’s Jameis Winston). The Wolfpack doesn’t have an interception in its opponents’ last 87 passes, and this projects as an opportunity for Long to settle in for a solid day.

2. Syracuse will run for at least 200 yards. Not only did the Orange stampede the Wolfpack last year, they’re facing a team that is surrendering 217 rushing yards per conference game. Considering N.C. State gets Syracuse and then Georgia Tech the next two weeks, those numbers are about to get worse.

The Orange has twice rushed for at least 200 yards (Central Michigan and Maryland) and nearly got there against Wake Forest. This looks like a game Syracuse should be able to control on the ground.

3. Syracuse will exceed its season average in third-down conversion percentage. The Orange was a predictably bad 3-for-16 on third down against Clemson, one of the nation’s best defensive teams. Now, its gets an N.C. State defense that can’t get anyone off the field.

The Wolfpack allows opponents to convert 52.1 percent of their third-down attempts; only Toledo and Georgia State are worse in major college football. Syracuse has converted just 35.8 percent of its third downs, but that number should improve in November β€” in part because of this game.

4. Cole Murphy will make at least two field goals for the Orange. In four consecutive games, the steady Murphy has connected on at least a pair of field goals and is an impressive 11-for-13 on the season. Syracuse’s lackluster red-zone offense has created some of his opportunities, but he’s also made four tries of at least 41 yards.

In N.C. State’s last three games, opponents are 6-for-9 on field-goal attempts. Between Syracuse’s struggles to punch in touchdowns and N.C. State’s defense allowing plenty of long drives, the opportunities for Murphy will be there.

5. N.C. State will not have a receiver with more than five catches. This really has very little to do with Syracuse, which gave up seven catches to Clemson’s Artavis Scott just last week. It has a lot more to do with how determined the Wolfpack is to spread the wealth in their offense.

In its last seven games, N.C. State has had two players produce a game with more than five receptions; Bo Hines had eight catches and Shadrach Thornton had seven in a 56-41 loss to Florida State. Considering this game isn’t likely to be that wild (the Wolfpack is 12th in the ACC in scoring average in league games, while Syracuse is 13th), chances are there won’t be eye-popping numbers for Jacoby Brissett’s receivers.

About StateFans

'StateFansNation' is the shared profile used by any/all of the dozen or so authors that contribute to the blog. You may not always agree with us, but you will have little doubt about where we stand on most issues. Please follow us on Twitter and FaceBook

'14 Football

Home Forums Oh Yeah, State’s at Syracuse Saturday

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • Author
  • #60147

    Dave Doeren looks for his first league win and State enters a crucial stretch where the game at Syracuse (Saturday 3pm, RSN) has become a must-win to
    [See the full post at: Oh Yeah, State’s at Syracuse Saturday]


    Giant game. Big opportunity. Really have to have it.

    I did some research last weekend and found that Doeren and Bielema at Arkansas are the only two coaches in the Power Five going winless in conference play from last season to this point this season.


    Both with roots to Wisconsin.

    I think Beilema is 0-16 going back to Wisconsin.


    Must win game. Get it done Pack!


    …bowl hopes alive …

    GSU and ODU were pretty clear signals that this season was going to be a repeat of last season. The FSU game was the annual play-over-our-head game. (Ah for the times when we would win one of those.) But the Clemson game should have been a freight train for even the most optimistic fan.

    “Bowl hopes?” The only hope I have left is the possibility of beating Wake.

    Virginia Wolf

    Well, win at Syracuse or the season is a total loss! Go Pack!!!!


    Ya’ll remember the last time the Basketsaurus brought his roundballers down and played in the PNC don’t you…
    That’s all the reasons we need to Win this game up North…

    Apologies in advance to Mr. Dog… if someone finds an unintentional implication herein regarding “Damn Yankees”…
    Regardless.. I’m just glad I don’t live in C-A-R-Y… five miles from Monkey Junction and Brunswick Forest is bad enough …

    It’s all our own “Tuliplips'” fault anyway…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!

    Bielema may be winless in the SEC, but the reason isn’t because he’s done a bad job. There isn’t a .500 team in the country this season that’s anywhere near as good as the Razorbacks, and certainly not the Wolfpack. Mississippi State will have their hands full this Saturday in Starkville, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here. Arkansas would walk the ACC Coastal and would be a genuine Atlantic contender.

    Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset in Syracuse this Saturday. Eventually the Pack’s got to win an ACC game, and this one could be lucky #13. They can’t keep losing forever.

    john of sparta

    Some Syracuse unknown will have his Career Day.
    we know this, since we have seen this before.
    any guesses who?


    Boy is Lville putting a hurting on Jameis and the Noles. Great defense. Let’s see if they can hold on.


    [State] can’t keep losing forever.

    Sounds like our motto. Maybe I should change my nickname from WTNY to WTF. OK, maybe not. πŸ˜‰


    Some Syracuse unknown will have his Career Day.
    we know this, since we have seen this before.

    Funny! But I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

    They’ve got potentially 6 starters out with “lower body” injuries (chicken legs?): http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf/2014/10/post_33.html

    With 2 of their starting WRs out, this potentially means there’s some backup just waiting to blow up our D. My hope is that with both guards likely out, our DLine comes to play.


    LMAO, the PapaJohn’s coupon code has changed. Duke still needs a win for their code to work tomorrow, but State and the Holes just have to score 2 TDs.


    I had to come back to this. I didn’t think the 5th one would hold true. Too bad for Syracuse they called this 100% wrong. All five points did not hold true.
    GO PACK!

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.