Dave Doeren looks for his first league win and State enters a crucial stretch where the game at Syracuse (Saturday 3pm, RSN) has become a must-win to keep realistic bowl hopes alive.
Some stats-based predictions from a different perspective (Syracuse.com):
Five statistics-based developments to look for when Syracuse plays host to N.C. State on Saturday …
1. A.J. Long will not be intercepted. The freshman quarterback looked like he was in line for a tough day last week, and the Clemson defense didn’t disappoint. Should Long start for the rest of this season, that will be most talented opponent he faces.
Things should get tamer this week against an N.C. State defense that has only five interceptions on the season and just two in its last five games (both, oddly enough, were picks of Florida State’s Jameis Winston). The Wolfpack doesn’t have an interception in its opponents’ last 87 passes, and this projects as an opportunity for Long to settle in for a solid day.
2. Syracuse will run for at least 200 yards. Not only did the Orange stampede the Wolfpack last year, they’re facing a team that is surrendering 217 rushing yards per conference game. Considering N.C. State gets Syracuse and then Georgia Tech the next two weeks, those numbers are about to get worse.
The Orange has twice rushed for at least 200 yards (Central Michigan and Maryland) and nearly got there against Wake Forest. This looks like a game Syracuse should be able to control on the ground.
3. Syracuse will exceed its season average in third-down conversion percentage. The Orange was a predictably bad 3-for-16 on third down against Clemson, one of the nation’s best defensive teams. Now, its gets an N.C. State defense that can’t get anyone off the field.
The Wolfpack allows opponents to convert 52.1 percent of their third-down attempts; only Toledo and Georgia State are worse in major college football. Syracuse has converted just 35.8 percent of its third downs, but that number should improve in November — in part because of this game.
4. Cole Murphy will make at least two field goals for the Orange. In four consecutive games, the steady Murphy has connected on at least a pair of field goals and is an impressive 11-for-13 on the season. Syracuse’s lackluster red-zone offense has created some of his opportunities, but he’s also made four tries of at least 41 yards.
In N.C. State’s last three games, opponents are 6-for-9 on field-goal attempts. Between Syracuse’s struggles to punch in touchdowns and N.C. State’s defense allowing plenty of long drives, the opportunities for Murphy will be there.
5. N.C. State will not have a receiver with more than five catches. This really has very little to do with Syracuse, which gave up seven catches to Clemson’s Artavis Scott just last week. It has a lot more to do with how determined the Wolfpack is to spread the wealth in their offense.
In its last seven games, N.C. State has had two players produce a game with more than five receptions; Bo Hines had eight catches and Shadrach Thornton had seven in a 56-41 loss to Florida State. Considering this game isn’t likely to be that wild (the Wolfpack is 12th in the ACC in scoring average in league games, while Syracuse is 13th), chances are there won’t be eye-popping numbers for Jacoby Brissett’s receivers.
