The Gambler: NC State v. UNC Historical Lines

It may have surprised some to see that UNC opened up as a 3.5 point favorite at NC State despite posting a dismal 2 – 5 record. I’m not sure if Vegas viewed their BIG TIME win against Boston College as some sort of turning point, but it got me thinking… how has the Pack fared against the line versus UNC? My sample size goes back to when we started our 5 game streak against the Heels in 2007 (against some of UNC’s best all-time defenses I might add).

NC State (-3.5) v. UNC
W 31 – 27

NC State (+11) @ UNC
W 41 – 10

NC State (+6) v. UNC
W 28 – 27

NC State (+2.5) @ UNC
W 29 – 25

NC State (+3.5) v. UNC
W 13 – 0

NC State (+7) @ UNC
L (35 – 43)

During our 5 – 1 run, UNC has been favored in 5 of the 6 games. Out of those games, NC State covered the spread in each of our wins and just missed covering the spread by a point last year. If history has any say in this, it looks like this game will be decided by 3 points or fewer in a Vegas-estimated loss. Bet on State.

'13 Football

27 Responses to The Gambler: NC State v. UNC Historical Lines

  1. Prowling Woofie 10/29/2013 at 5:04 PM #

    Would love to bet on the Pack, but they’ve only shown up in one game this season – vs Clemson. The rest of the games – particularly the ACC games not involving Clem and his son – have been dismal disappointments. The only aside would be the second half moral victory gained vs FSU after Jimbo pulled his starters.

    Nothing in the WFU and SU games instills the slightest bit of confidence in me to wager on the Pack against the Evil Empire.

    Hope they win, but won’t bet a dime…

  2. TheCOWDOG 10/29/2013 at 5:15 PM #

    What am I to do with you amateurs. Vegas is not an estimator of outcome.

    They are an estimator of the betting public.
    Nothing more, nothing less.

    Of course you take the 3.

  3. Fastback68 10/29/2013 at 5:32 PM #

    Well done Mr. Cowdog, describing Vegas management in 8 words or less. If you have ever spent time with Notre Dame alums or fans, you find out why Vegas tweaks the line up when the Irish are favored. The egos bet to cover and the house rakes in the cash.

    With regards to Chapel Hill Swill this Saturday, I just hope Kahn’s missing State points, missing heel penalty yardage and faux State formation penalty categories don’t come back to haunt us.

    Go Pack!!!

  4. Tuffy2 10/30/2013 at 1:12 AM #

    FSU was our trap game as they caught us looking ahead to the holes. That makes me feel better. How about you guys?

  5. Tuffy2 10/30/2013 at 1:20 AM #

    Damn! Syracuse and Wake Forest were as well I guess.

  6. Tuffy2 10/30/2013 at 1:22 AM #

    This program will be making some noise in a couple of years. You can count on that.

  7. BJD95 10/30/2013 at 6:55 AM #

    You can’t bet on this game. Just asking for bad juju, and Cowdog doesn’t want to visit his santaria queen again…


  8. BJD95 10/30/2013 at 6:57 AM #

    Speaking of the title, I have to think Kenny Rogers is a Pack fan. Who else would have penned “The best you can hope for is to die in your sleep?”

  9. Pack Mentality 10/30/2013 at 7:57 AM #

    The line is now +4. I quit betting on the pack years ago, but if I were to bet I’d hold off and see if the spread gets larger.

  10. Khan 10/30/2013 at 8:43 AM #

    I’d give us about a 10% chance of winning this game and about a 60% chance of covering.

  11. BJD95 10/30/2013 at 9:31 AM #

    60% and 80%, respectively.

  12. Pack85EE 10/30/2013 at 12:22 PM #

    knowing my luck, I would pick the holes for reverse juju, state would cover and still lose by 1.
    Better plan, spend my money on beer, sit back and enjoy.

    I’m looking for the O and D to show more consistency this game. We can do it!

  13. 13OT 10/30/2013 at 3:24 PM #

    There will be joy galore in the CF joint,
    When the Wolfpack wins by just 1 point.

    No need to waste any points, which will be badly needed to finish out the season.

  14. Fastback68 10/30/2013 at 3:48 PM #

    Unc -3.5, over under 57.5. Gun to my head. Teaser – state plus 10.5 points, over 50.5 points. Not much defense on either side. Hoping renneee has sweaty hands.

  15. packer74 10/30/2013 at 4:33 PM #

    For this season, State is averaging 13.5 points in ACC games and EweNC is averaging 23.5 points against conference opponents. Cheer for the Pack. Bet the jerks from Chapel Hill.

  16. FunPack 10/30/2013 at 5:23 PM #


  17. TheCOWDOG 10/30/2013 at 5:33 PM #

    This won’t do…

    ” Bet the jerks from Chapel Hill ”

    One who may even consider placing a bet against one’s own club …? Someone is welcome to finish that…

    There are plenty of other options for a wager this Saturday.

    Bet against? Wow.

  18. Wufpacker 10/30/2013 at 6:46 PM #

    A Rose by any other name.

  19. BJD95 10/30/2013 at 7:38 PM #

    You can bet against your team as a hedge, in that it would soften the blow off a loss (or for reverse juju). But only if you would still prefer a win.

    And NEVER this particular week. Hate like this means there can be no hedge.

  20. theghost 10/30/2013 at 8:14 PM #

    I have be the holes as that hedge for just that purpose in the past – but never enough money that I wasn’t still happy to lose it, and never when facing the home team.

    I am, however, less optimistic against fedora than ol’ BMFD. the place is in shambles, but I’m afraid larry can coach – he did a nice job in Hattiesburg.

  21. Primewolf 10/30/2013 at 8:46 PM #

    I am trying to be optimistic.

    However, my logic says we haven’t scored much against any ACC opponent. I see the UNC defense as ACC average or a little better. Hence, we won’t score alot of points unless there are some crazy turnovers.

    Further, I don’t see our defense as ACC average. We are also weak against the pass.

    I see us losing by a few TDs.

    Obviously, turnovers, a few big plays in our favor, etc could turn this around.

    Ergo, don’t bet the line.

  22. TheAliasTroll 10/30/2013 at 8:49 PM #

    UNC is the play. I think Fedora wants this one A LOT more than DD, not to mention our team is a pile of sh!t.

  23. Wulfpack 10/30/2013 at 9:27 PM #

    Don’t see us winning this one.

  24. Wufpacker 10/30/2013 at 9:32 PM #

    Since it looks like this might be my last chance until spring, I’d be remiss if I didn’t get this in one last time….

    F-ck Boston.

    Sorry Beej, in advance.

    Hopefully this msg is premature.

  25. BJD95 10/30/2013 at 10:02 PM #

    First BC loses to the Holes…and now this national travesty. It’s even worse than the existence of the Dropkick Murphys.

    I goes to sleep so as to not watch anymore of the Masshole celebration.

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