2004 was the last year of the 9 team ACC Tournament. That year it was won by #6 seed Maryland, needing only 3 games to win. It has been often stated that a team playing before Friday has no chance of winning it all. Of course, there will always be the chance, but the odds are heavily stacked against such an occurrence taking place.
Bored on a Saturday morning, I thought I would take a look at who, since 2004, has played on Saturday and who has won it on Sunday. Wanting to be objective I removed names and used only seeding to display the results.
2012 – Semifinals: 1,2,3,5 / Winner: 3
2011 – Semifinals: 1,2,4,6 / Winner: 2
2010 – Semifinals: 1,7,11,12 / Winner: 1
2009 – Semifinals: 1,3,4,7 / Winner: 3
2008 – Semifinals: 1,2,3,4 / Winner: 1
2007 – Semifinals: 1, 3, 4, 10 / Winner: 1
2006 – Semifinals: 1, 2, 3, 12 / Winner: 1
2005 – Semifinals: 1, 3, 5, 7 / Winner: 3
8 years of data shows us a few tendencies.
– The top 3 seeds are winning it all.
– In years (3) with a double digit seed making the semis, the #1 seed wins it all.
– Semifinals by seed: 1 (8), 2 (4), 3 (6), 4 (4), 5(2), 6(1), 7 (3), 8 (0), 9 (0), 10 (1), 11 (1), 12 (2)
– Frequency of only: 4 of top 4 seeds making semifinals (1), 3 of top 4 (5), 2 of top 4 (1), 1 of top 4 (1).
Obviously being a number one seed is advantageous .. and obviously if you are #1 in the ACC you are a top team in the nation, so it is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. But, I am surprised that the #2 seed is less successful than the #3 seeds, and only as successful as the #4.
So, statistically speaking, we want that #3 seed… even though we all know the #4 seed is the seed to have this year. It would provide a possible matchup with stumbling Miami. It would also potentially pit Duke and UNX against each other on Saturday. That said, I want the #3. History favors it’s success. Plus, let’s beat Duke. We are in the dance, we don’t need to take the easy way to the title. We don’t want excuses. We want to beat Duke AND either #1 seed Miami or arch-rival UNX to win it all.
A note on venue: Since the ACC tournament expanded, the 2006, 2010, and 2011 tournaments were played in Greensboro. Duke won all 3 those.
