The Importance of 3

2004 was the last year of the 9 team ACC Tournament. That year it was won by #6 seed Maryland, needing only 3 games to win. It has been often stated that a team playing before Friday has no chance of winning it all. Of course, there will always be the chance, but the odds are heavily stacked against such an occurrence taking place.

Bored on a Saturday morning, I thought I would take a look at who, since 2004, has played on Saturday and who has won it on Sunday. Wanting to be objective I removed names and used only seeding to display the results.

2012 – Semifinals: 1,2,3,5 / Winner: 3

2011 – Semifinals: 1,2,4,6 / Winner: 2

2010 – Semifinals: 1,7,11,12 / Winner: 1

2009 – Semifinals: 1,3,4,7 / Winner: 3

2008 – Semifinals: 1,2,3,4 / Winner: 1

2007 – Semifinals: 1, 3, 4, 10 / Winner: 1

2006 – Semifinals: 1, 2, 3, 12 / Winner: 1

2005 – Semifinals: 1, 3, 5, 7 / Winner: 3


8 years of data shows us a few tendencies.

– The top 3 seeds are winning it all.

– In years (3) with a double digit seed making the semis, the #1 seed wins it all.

– Semifinals by seed: 1 (8), 2 (4), 3 (6), 4 (4), 5(2), 6(1), 7 (3), 8 (0), 9 (0), 10 (1), 11 (1), 12 (2)

– Frequency of only: 4 of top 4 seeds making semifinals (1), 3 of top 4 (5), 2 of top 4 (1), 1 of top 4 (1).

Obviously being a number one seed is advantageous .. and obviously if you are #1 in the ACC you are a top team in the nation, so it is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. But, I am surprised that the #2 seed is less successful than the #3 seeds, and only as successful as the #4.

So, statistically speaking, we want that #3 seed… even though we all know the #4 seed is the seed to have this year. It would provide a possible matchup with stumbling Miami. It would also potentially pit Duke and UNX against each other on Saturday. That said, I want the #3. History favors it’s success. Plus, let’s beat Duke. We are in the dance, we don’t need to take the easy way to the title. We don’t want excuses. We want to beat Duke AND either #1 seed Miami or arch-rival UNX to win it all.

A note on venue: Since the ACC tournament expanded, the 2006, 2010, and 2011 tournaments were played in Greensboro. Duke won all 3 those. 

About BAM

I grew up on Jones Franklin Rd with a Wolfpack banner hanging over my bed. UNCW class of 2001.

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    2004 was the last year of the 9 team ACC Tournament. That year it was won by #6 seed Maryland, needing only 3 games to win. It has been often stated t
    [See the full post at: The Importance of 3]


    Too early and my brain is yet to turn itself on fully, so all I’ve got to say is that maybe the 3 seed is like Avis…they try harder.

    And yeah, 2010 was an interesting tourney all around. After Friday Duke was probably feeling very confident but ended up having to work both days for it.


    BAM, dude, that was threemendous…

    12-6, let’s “tri”.. Let’s GO PACK!


    & just for luck – the “3”rd post…


    Thanks for breaking my boredom for at least a few moments. Eventually, the 4 seed has to represent from a statistical standpoint. It might as well be this year if State earns this slot. Nice to know I am not the only one waiting for 2pm. Thanks again.


    That sample is too small to have any significance. I think the 4 seed is most advantageous.

    I want a rematch against Miami. Do not think they are good enough to sweep us. I’d also prefer delaying any game against a blue and refs.


    I sensed you were trying to tell me something; like there was some subliminal message or something, but I’m not sure what it was. But, for some reason I have an urge to eat a Three Musketeers while riding a tricycle and listening to Thrice. Of course riding a tricycle right now would be silly because it’s only like 3 degrees outside.


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