HUGE week in the ACC AET Index Games (Week 10)

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This is a HUGE week in ACC football.  It’s the first time this year where all 12 teams will be playing conference games on the same weekend.  This also marks the beginning of 3 consecutive weeks of 6 acc games.  Most of all though, this week’s matchups not only could begin the separation of contenders from pretenders but it could also really muddy up the waters more than they already are. 

Atlantic Division Conf. Overall
Win Loss Win Loss
Florida State 4 1 6 2
NC State 3 1 6 2
Maryland 3 1 6 2
Clemson 2 3 4 4
Boston College 1 4 3 5
Wake Forest 1 4 2 6

 

Coastal Division Conf. Overall
Win Loss Win Loss
Virginia Tech 4 0 6 2
Georgia Tech 3 2 5 3
Miami 3 2 5 3
North Carolina 2 2 5 3
Virginia 1 3 4 4
Duke 0 4 2 6

 

A quick look at the standings shows that BC, Wake, UVA, and Duke are eliminated from winning their divisions, okay UVA isn’t mathematically.  Guess what? All 4 of those teams will be playing each other this weekend.  That means all of the remaining teams still with a chance (no matter how long it is) at winning their division will be playing against another team with a chance at winning their division.

Every matchup this weekend is important, especially for NC State, FSU, and Maryland, all of which are trying to keep pace with the others.  The Coastal side is a little clearer but can definitely get interesting now that VT is entering the heart of their schedule over the next 3 weeks playing against GT, at UNC, and at Miami.  VT is playing better than all of them but it doesn’t mean they will win them all.  Still a lot of football to be played over the next month but the next 2-3 weeks will be the most interesting.

If you are new to the ACC AET Index please refer back to the first article of the year 2010 ACC AET Index for a quick education in the numbers.  Last week’s article Week 9  is also good to review to understand why I’ve included a new version of the AET Index that I believe is a more accurate way of comparing teams.

(In my best Mills Lane voice, referee of Celebrity Death Match)

“Let’s get it on!”

Game 1: Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (Thursday 7:30 ESPN)

Another Thursday night ACC game this week so another post before it’s ready.  This time everyone released their depth charts at the beginning of the week but injury reports aren’t released until Thursday’s at some schools and there are several key starters that are questionable for this week throughout the acc.  So I’m going to go ahead and get this out again for the Thursday night game then go back to adjust for injuries later.

 Home Field Advantage (HFA) Factor = -1.5

  • Georgia Tech = 5.4
  • Virginia Tech = 7.7

Georgia Tech is the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.3 advantage.

Now looking back at how coaches fare as Favorites and Underdogs, 2006-2009 ACC AET Index,   (plus 2010 game results to this point) we see the following:

  • Johnson is (3-0) as the Favorite on the road.
  • Beamer is (7-3) as the Underdog at home.

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1)

  • Georgia Tech = 56.9
  • Virginia Tech = 53.7

Georgia Tech again is the favorite with a 3.2 advantage.  Revised coaching records show:

  • Johnson is (4-0) as the Favorite on the road.
  • Beamer is (8-2) as the Underdog at home.

Vegas Odds: (as of Wednesday)

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech:  VT -13

 

SATURDAY’S GAMES

 

Game 2: NC State at Clemson (12:00 Raycom)

Updated AET Index Numbers with HFA Factor:

  • NC State = 6.6
  • Clemson = 3.3

Clemson is the favorite to win this matchup with a 3.3 advantage.

  • TOB is (4-7) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Swinney is (7-1) as the Favorite at home.

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1) Revised coaching records show:

  • NC State = 53.8
  • Clemson = 60.6

Clemson is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 6.8 advantage.

  • TOB is (4-8) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Swinney is (7-1) as the Favorite at home.

Vegas Odds:

Interesting change in odds where the week started with Clemson (-10.5) and now is:

 NC State at Clemson:  Clemson -3.0

 

Game 3: Maryland at Miami (12:00 ESPNU)

Updated AET Index Numbers with HFA Factor:

  • Maryland = 7.6
  • Miami = 1.7

Miami is the favorite to win this matchup with a 5.9 advantage.

  • Friedgen is (5-9) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Shannon is (7-7) as the Favorite at home.

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1) Revised coaching records show:

  • Maryland = 51.9
  • Miami = 63.5

Miami is still the favorite to win this matchup with an 11.6 advantage.

  • Friedgen is (5-9) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Shannon is (7-7) as the Favorite at home.

 Vegas Odds:

Interesting change in odds where the week started with Miami (-9.0) and now is:

 Maryland at Miami:  Miami -4.0

  

Game 4: Virginia at Duke (12:00 ESPN3.com)

Updated AET Index Numbers with HFA Factor:

  • Virginia = 6.6
  • Duke = 4.9

Duke is the favorite to win this matchup with a 1.7 advantage.

  • London is (0-1) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Cutcliffe is (2-6) as the Favorite at home.

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1) Revised coaching records show:

  • Virginia = 55.8
  • Duke = 57.9

Duke is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.1 advantage.

  • London is (0-1) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Cutcliffe is (2-4) as the Favorite at home.

 Vegas Odds: Virginia at Duke:  Virginia -1.0

 

Game 5: Boston College at Wake Forest (3:30 ESPN3.com)

Updated AET Index Numbers with HFA Factor:

  • Boston College = 7.2
  • Wake Forest = 6.7

Wake Forest is the favorite to win this matchup with a 0.5 advantage.

  • Spaziani is (0-4) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Grobe is (9-4) as the Favorite at home.

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1) Revised coaching records show:

  • Boston College = 54.3
  • Wake Forest = 55.8

Wake Forest is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 1.5 advantage.

  • Spaziani is (0-4) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Grobe is (9-4) as the Favorite at home.

 Vegas Odds: Boston College at Wake Forest:  Boston College -3.0

 

Game 6: North Carolina at Florida State (3:30 ABC)

Updated AET Index Numbers with HFA Factor:

  • North Carolina = 3.6
  • Florida State = 4.3

North Carolina is the favorite to win this matchup with a 0.7 advantage.

  • Davis is (3-3) as the Favorite on the road.
  • Fisher is (0-0) as the Underdog at home.

Revised ACC AET Index with HFA Factor: (calculated to +3.1) Revised coaching records show:

  • North Carolina = 58.7
  • Florida State = 59.2

Florida State becomes the new favorite to win this matchup with a 0.5 advantage.

  • Davis is (2-6) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Fisher is (2-0) as the Favorite at home.

 Vegas Odds:

Interesting change in odds where the week started with FSU (-7.0) and now is:

North Carolina at Florida State:  Florida State -10.0

  

What do I think?

  1. This is a very interesting matchup.  Vegas is big on VT because of how they have played since the 2nd quarter of their game against NC State.  What they aren’t paying attention to is GT/Johnson knows how to beat VT.  VT’s weakness is their Defense and they showed in the JMU game how youth has a hard time against the spread-triple-option.  This is going to be a very interesting game to watch and frankly I think it’s going to be very close.  GT will cover the spread.  Will they beat VT?  I’m not sure but Blacksburg on a Thursday night will be amazing.  Vegas says VT, AET says GT; I’m going out on a limb and say Georgia Tech.  Also if VT wins you can eliminate GT from winning the Coastal.  A GT win really muddies the waters.
  2. History is not on NC State’s side for this game.  Everything is saying State is going to lose: Let down game after big win, 6 game losing streak to Clemson, road game, Vegas, AET.  All of those things going against State we have no chance right??  Wrong.  TOB>Dabo, Wilson>Parker, NCSU WR> CU WR.  Something is just telling me that NC State will win (and it’s not just the diploma talking).  A State win eliminates Clemson.  A Clemson win puts State in a position needing FSU to lose another game against either (UNC, Clemson, @Maryland).
  3. I need to wait and see if Jacory Harris will be playing before I make a call on this one.  After how their backups played at UVA I don’t know what to think.  Then you have the unknown of Maryland.  You have to figure at some point they are going to come back down to earth.  Maryland’s legitimate wins are against, BC and a fluke win against a Navy team that just lost to Duke.  For now I’m going with AET and Vegas and picking Miami.  Of course I’ll be pulling for Miami no matter what because a loss by Maryland helps NC State’s chances of winning the Atlantic.
  4. YAWWWNNNNN…Virginia at Duke.  While it might be a close game it has zero relevance on the outcome of division races and NC State doesn’t face either one this year.  I’ll go with the AET and pick Duke, though I won’t be surprised if they lay another egg.
  5. YAWN (the sequel)…Wake Forest is so bad this year it’s painful to watch them.  Luckily no one will have to be subjected to seeing this game.  Boston College.
  6. Here is the game that will drive a NC State fan insane.  On one hand we all want Florida State to lose to help NC State win the division.  On the other hand it’s UNC.  The AET is interesting for this game because the old version has UNC as the favorite but the new version has FSU as the favorite.  UNC’s AET Index is updated to reflect everything that has happened for the year and yet they still have a high number.  This just shows how loaded they were this year before the scandal.  I’m pulling for FSU to lose (not for UNC to win) but I see Florida State winning this one.

 

What do you think?

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

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15 Responses to HUGE week in the ACC AET Index Games (Week 10)

  1. primacyone 11/04/2010 at 11:41 AM #

    GO HEELS!!!

    Ouch, that hurt:(

  2. 61Packer 11/04/2010 at 12:02 PM #

    GO TO HELL HEELS!

    Ohh, that felt good! 🙂

  3. wvillepack 11/04/2010 at 12:21 PM #

    Moose gets his first 100 yd game and defense plays tough. Too much negativity in Clemson.
    State wins 28-17.

  4. bradleyb123 11/04/2010 at 12:42 PM #

    Interesting change in odds where the week started with Clemson (-10.5) and now is: NC State at Clemson: Clemson -3.0

    I believe this one started out with Clemson -4.0 and it has dropped to -3.0. I never heard of Clemson being a 10.5 point favorite. Are you sure about that early spread?

    That might have been enough to bring this ex-gambler out of retirement. I think I’d take NC State +10.5 in a heartbeat. Hard to imagine us losing by more than 10 points without a complete and total collapse on our part. Not that that can’t happen. In years past, I would almost expect it. But not this year. Although, it did kinda happen at ECU. I’m just hoping that was the one-shot fluke that I THINK it was.

  5. bradleyb123 11/04/2010 at 12:45 PM #

    I am also pulling for FSU to lose. Yes, it would be awful for the Holes to enjoy a win over FSU. But since I don’t expect us to finish the season on a 4-0 run, then FSU needs to lose at least one. And if the Holes beating them helps us make it to the ACCCG, then…. Go Holes!

    But I won’t enjoy it if they win. Nor will I shed a tear if they lose.

    Oh, one more thing…… GO PACK!!!

  6. 1.21 Jigawatts 11/04/2010 at 12:49 PM #

    bradley,

    I’m sure of that opening line. I wrote them all down when they first came out monday morning and was shocked by it. Now they may have made an error when they published it but that’s what I saw and wrote down.

  7. foz 11/04/2010 at 12:54 PM #

    I want FSU to win handily. We’ve already beaten them, and I want UNX as beat down as possible when we play them. And the bottom line is (as said many times), all we have to do is handle our business, and there’s no matter to what everyone else does.

  8. wvillepack 11/04/2010 at 1:12 PM #

    Go FSU! Hope they beat the tar outta them heels! And we need to beat the stripes off them tigers!

  9. Plz2BStateFan 11/04/2010 at 1:14 PM #

    I want NCSU to win out so it doesnt matter.

    But I am not foolish enough to think that is likely. UNC needs to win.

    What is the track record of this AET index? Number of Correct predictions vs Incorrect?

  10. STLPack01 11/04/2010 at 2:02 PM #

    FSU vs. UNC – that’s what I call a win/win situation. I can’t root for the holes, but if they beat them, well, we have another half game in the standings. If FSU wins, well then we get to laugh at them. Win/win.

  11. coach13 11/04/2010 at 3:33 PM #

    If….IF UNC wins, I hope they come out of it with enough injuries to last the rest of the season. I hate Carolina. Go Pack and Go Noles!

  12. 1.21 Jigawatts 11/04/2010 at 6:50 PM #

    Old version records
    2006 = 32-16
    2007 = 23-25
    2008 = 23-25
    2009 = 32-16
    2010 = 15-12
    Total = 125-94 (57.7%)

    New version records
    2006 = 34-14
    2007 = 24-24
    2008 = 23-25
    2009 = 36-12
    2010 = 15-12
    Total = 132-87 (60.3%)

  13. bradleyb123 11/05/2010 at 9:18 AM #

    I’m sure of that opening line. I wrote them all down when they first came out Monday morning and was shocked by it. Now they may have made an error when they published it but that’s what I saw and wrote down.

    They must have been mistaken then. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a point spread move seven points that quickly.

    I wish I could have seen that spread and jumped on it! 🙂

  14. bradleyb123 11/05/2010 at 9:21 AM #

    I disagree with hoping for injuries, even to Holes. If we can’t beat them without requiring injuries to their players, then we aren’t doing enough.

  15. 1.21 Jigawatts 11/05/2010 at 9:46 AM #

    Bradley – about jumping on that spread I’m with you. Said the same thing to a buddy when I saw it.

    No need to wish injuries to keep their players out…just need another bombshell to drop. Just as effective. 🙂

    Well last nights game was what I was expecting until Nesbitt went down. I firmly believe if he doesn’t break his arm GT wins that game.

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