2010 ACC AET Index Games (Week 8)

Game 1: Duke at Virginia Tech (12:00 Raycom)

Look at the 2010 ACC AET Index to see each school’s Index Number and how it was achieved. I will be using updated weekly numbers to reflect the current week’s Depth Charts.

• Duke = 5.6
• Virginia Tech = 9.2

Referring back to the 2006-2009 AET Index you’ll see that the Home Field Advantage (HFA) factor is -1.6, which was developed using 2006-2008 data. Including 2009 data the HFA factor is -1.5. So we subtract 1.5 from Virginia Tech who is the Home team and we get:

• Duke = 5.6
• Virginia Tech = 7.7

Duke is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.1 advantage.

Now looking back at how coaches fare as Favorites and Underdogs, 2006-2009 ACC AET Index, (plus 2010 game results to this point) we see the following:

• Cutcliffe is (1-3) as the Favorite on the road.
• Beamer is (6-3) as the Underdog at home.

Game 2: Maryland at Boston College (1:00 ESPN3.com)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

• Maryland = 7.8
• Boston College = 7.2

HFA Factor:

• Maryland = 7.8
• Boston College = 5.7

Boston College is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.1 advantage.

• Friedgen is (4-9) as the Underdog on the road.
• Spaziani is (3-1) as the Favorite at home.

Game 3: Georgia Tech at Clemson (3:30 ABC)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

• Georgia Tech = 5.4
• Clemson = 4.6

HFA Factor:

• Georgia Tech = 5.4
• Clemson = 3.1

Clemson is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.3 advantage.

• Johnson is (4-3) as the Underdog on the road.
• Swinney is (6-2) as the Favorite at home.

Game 4: North Carolina at Miami (7:30 ESPN2)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

• North Carolina = 3.8
• Miami = 2.8

HFA Factor:

• North Carolina = 3.8
• Miami = 1.3

Miami is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.5 advantage.

• Davis is (2-5) as the Underdog on the road.
• Shannon is (6-7) as the Favorite at home.

What do I think?

1. I think Duke and VT, for some odd reason, their Index numbers never reflect what they actually have.  It’s the one flaw I see in the AET Index.  VT will win and will win BIG.  Increasing Beamer’s stellar record and bringing Cutcliffe further down.
2. I think BC will prove the Index out.  They are simply a better team, though Maryland does have better QB’s.  BC wins.
3. This is an interesting game.  I think Johnson is the better coach.  I think Clemson has the better talent.  I also think that neither team is playing up to their potential this year.  It’s a toss up so I’ll go with Swinney’s better record and the AET Index.  Clemson.
4. Ahhhh, the annual Butch Bowl.  I’ve updated the Index to include all starters out for the year and those kicked off the team.  Not surprisingly UNC’s Index is growing.  I’m sure it’s not the last time I’ll have to adjust for another 2009 Starter lost for the year.  Yates is playing lights (for him) this year and Harris is playing, well like he always does.  I don’t think either Davis or Shannon are good Gameday coaches.  So I’m going with the Index and Shannon to get his first win over Davis.  Miami wins.

What do you think?

 

P.S.    It’s been posed by several people about what the Vegas Odds are and how all this compares.  So I’m including it this week and will attempt to remember to every week from now on.

1. Duke at VT:  VT -27
2. Maryland at BC:  BC -4
3. GT at Clemson:  Clemson -5.5
4. UNC at Miami: Miami -6.5