2010 ACC AET Index Games (Week 8)

Game 1: Duke at Virginia Tech (12:00 Raycom)

Look at the 2010 ACC AET Index to see each school’s Index Number and how it was achieved. I will be using updated weekly numbers to reflect the current week’s Depth Charts.

  • Duke = 5.6
  • Virginia Tech = 9.2

Referring back to the 2006-2009 AET Index you’ll see that the Home Field Advantage (HFA) factor is -1.6, which was developed using 2006-2008 data. Including 2009 data the HFA factor is -1.5. So we subtract 1.5 from Virginia Tech who is the Home team and we get:

  • Duke = 5.6
  • Virginia Tech = 7.7

Duke is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.1 advantage.

Now looking back at how coaches fare as Favorites and Underdogs, 2006-2009 ACC AET Index, (plus 2010 game results to this point) we see the following:

  • Cutcliffe is (1-3) as the Favorite on the road.
  • Beamer is (6-3) as the Underdog at home.

Game 2: Maryland at Boston College (1:00 ESPN3.com)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

  • Maryland = 7.8
  • Boston College = 7.2

HFA Factor:

  • Maryland = 7.8
  • Boston College = 5.7

Boston College is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.1 advantage.

  • Friedgen is (4-9) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Spaziani is (3-1) as the Favorite at home.

Game 3: Georgia Tech at Clemson (3:30 ABC)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

  • Georgia Tech = 5.4
  • Clemson = 4.6

HFA Factor:

  • Georgia Tech = 5.4
  • Clemson = 3.1

Clemson is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.3 advantage.

  • Johnson is (4-3) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Swinney is (6-2) as the Favorite at home.

Game 4: North Carolina at Miami (7:30 ESPN2)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

  • North Carolina = 3.8
  • Miami = 2.8

HFA Factor:

  • North Carolina = 3.8
  • Miami = 1.3

Miami is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.5 advantage.

  • Davis is (2-5) as the Underdog on the road.
  • Shannon is (6-7) as the Favorite at home.

What do I think?

  1. I think Duke and VT, for some odd reason, their Index numbers never reflect what they actually have.  It’s the one flaw I see in the AET Index.  VT will win and will win BIG.  Increasing Beamer’s stellar record and bringing Cutcliffe further down.
  2. I think BC will prove the Index out.  They are simply a better team, though Maryland does have better QB’s.  BC wins.
  3. This is an interesting game.  I think Johnson is the better coach.  I think Clemson has the better talent.  I also think that neither team is playing up to their potential this year.  It’s a toss up so I’ll go with Swinney’s better record and the AET Index.  Clemson.
  4. Ahhhh, the annual Butch Bowl.  I’ve updated the Index to include all starters out for the year and those kicked off the team.  Not surprisingly UNC’s Index is growing.  I’m sure it’s not the last time I’ll have to adjust for another 2009 Starter lost for the year.  Yates is playing lights (for him) this year and Harris is playing, well like he always does.  I don’t think either Davis or Shannon are good Gameday coaches.  So I’m going with the Index and Shannon to get his first win over Davis.  Miami wins.

What do you think?


P.S.    It’s been posed by several people about what the Vegas Odds are and how all this compares.  So I’m including it this week and will attempt to remember to every week from now on.

  1. Duke at VT:  VT -27
  2. Maryland at BC:  BC -4
  3. GT at Clemson:  Clemson -5.5
  4. UNC at Miami: Miami -6.5

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

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8 Responses to 2010 ACC AET Index Games (Week 8)

  1. MP 10/22/2010 at 12:45 PM #

    For the VT/Duke game, I’ll go with Vegas over the AET Index.

  2. VaWolf82 10/22/2010 at 12:45 PM #

    Nationally, there are not many interesting match-ups and the ACC is no exception (3 teams have bye weeks). ABC and ESPN2 picketed up CU vs GT and UNC vs UM so that leaves VT vs Duke as the best available for Raycom. Personally, I would have picked BC vs UMD if I were Raycom (but I guess they went for VT viewer numbers.) I’m going to watch BC vs UMD on-line starting at 1 pm since I haven’t seen UMD play yet this year.

    I appreciate all of the work you have put into your index and want to encourage you to continue tweaking it. I’m curious about your comments on Duke and VT. My guess is that experience at VT means alot more than experience at Duke in determining game outcomes. Meaning that VT has made a reputation of building really good teams on average recruiting success….and Duke, not so much.

    UVA vs E. Mich is an important game to me so that I don’t have any co-workers commit hari kari with a rusty knife.

  3. VaWolf82 10/22/2010 at 12:47 PM #

    Shannon is (6-7) as the Favorite at home.

    I missed this little jewel the first time through. That’s a damning piece of evidence right there.

  4. Moose Hunter 10/22/2010 at 1:10 PM #

    UNC is playing good football right now. I think they beat Miami. Miami is the 1 school I dislike more than UNC. I hope their punk asses get beat by UNc’s punk asses.

  5. bradleyb123 10/22/2010 at 1:40 PM #

    Moose Hunter, are you considering the fact that UNX is still in the hunt for THEIR division title, too? Do we really want UNX in the ACC championship game? I can’t think of much that would make me gag more.

  6. boonami 10/22/2010 at 3:53 PM #

    ^I have to agree with bradley… as much as I hate “Da U”, I can’t stomach the U of Non Compliance in the ACC title game or even winning the division. I hope they get smoked by Miami but it might as well be at a neutral site for the heels as Miami has no home field advantage.

  7. inhoc... 10/22/2010 at 4:46 PM #

    i wont ever pull for carolina, ever.
    the only good thing i could see happening IF carolina ends up in the championship game is TOB improving his record to 5-0 against the heals, THIS season…
    ok back to reality….

  8. mak4dpak 10/23/2010 at 8:24 AM #

    Any die hard State fan would have UNX at the top of their most hated list. Go hurricanes!!!!!! Kick some holes a__!!!!! UNX has Miami, FSU on the road, and VT, and of course State, at home, and they could lose all of those games. As for State, we are 2 interceptions away from a perfect season, and still have not played a perfect game. I think the week off will put us back in focus, and we will beat FSU, as long as RW, don’t throw any interceptions. He has been averaging about 2 a game. Not good!

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