Cincinnati Preview: The Road to Three-and-Oh!

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I had the honor of talking to Scott, writer at BearcatsBlog, and discuss with him this Thursday night’s game in Raleigh against the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Aside from holding the namesake of probably the most misspelled city in Ohio, what challenges does the NC State Wolfpack face this week?

My first concern (for them) was Cincinnati’s 28-14 loss to the famed Fresno State Bulldogs.  Fresno State posted an impressive 8-5 record last season… playing in the WAC.  It’s kind of like beating Shaq at a free-throw competition: not as impressive as it sounds and furthermore, no one cares.  Cincinnati managed to lose by two touchdowns to the Bulldogs so I wanted to get the scoop:

Pack: What happened at Fresno and what guarantee do you have that Cincy will have it back on track for Thursday?

Scott: The main things that happened at Fresno were that UC had a terrible breakdown with their offensive line. They couldn’t run the ball, and the pass protection was very weak. Zach Collaros was forced to run for his life most of the second half. Some of that was him not throwing the ball away, some of that was odd blocking schemes that had a running back trying to block stud DE Chris Carter. Some of it was just first game woes. The defense had a couple of lapses that led to a couple of TDs, including the game changer on a 59 yard touchdown. Some of the air was sucked out when WR Vidal Hazelton blew out his knee in the 3rd quarter.

The Bearcats were able to bounce back a little on Saturday. They played an inferior foe, and it’s hard to get a good read off of that.

Good news for Tom O’Brien and his 2-0 Wolfpack since the strength in NC State’s arguably defensive win over UCF was Jon Tenuta and his blitzing defense.  NC State also had big stand-up players penetrating UCF’s offensive line such as Augustin and Cole, who got 3.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage, 12 tackles total, and and a sack against UCF.  Even our defensive players who were missing their tackles in the last minutes of the game were punching through the opposing team’s offense with amazing speed (I’m looking at you Terrell Manning, 48 tackles in 2009).

Pack: What is your read on Cincy this season?

Scott: It’s been a little hard to get a solid read on the Bearcats this season. QB Zach Collaros has looked off compared to his amazing numbers from a season ago. It looks a little like Collaros is feeling the pressure of being the man, and trying to make everything happen at once. He had a great 3rd quarter against ISU, which helped get people back to thinking things will be alright. The Big East, like the ACC, is not loaded with great teams and it’s up for grabs. UC could win the conference, finish 5th, anything is possible right now.

What makes me nervous about this is that NC State may take advantage of Cincy’s weak O-line, get to a big lead, then put it on cruise controls coming out at the half, much like in the UCF game.  If Collaros is one of these QBs that simply “takes a while to warm up”, then the timing could be uncanny for the Bearcats and pay off big time in 3rd quarter momentum.

Interesting tangent… there is one thing Scott and I both agree one: the ACC kind of sucks and  both the ACC and Big (L)East are definitely up for grabs.

Pack: What should we watch out for?

Scott: The Bearcats have been pretty stout against the run this season. NC St is going to be their first real test at corralling a prolific (so far) rushing attack. The Bearcats secondary has been vulnerable, so if Russell Wilson has a game like in week 1, NC St could very well pull off the homefield victory.

As for offense, the Bearcats continue to run the spread. They haven’t been able to cash in on big plays this season however. Isaiah Pead was electric running the ball last season, but had a rough game against Fresno and didn’t play against Indiana St. The running game is the key to me. If UC can get yards on the ground and take pressure off Collaros, I think they can score a high percentage of the time. DJ Woods leads the team in catches and yards, but Armon Binns has similar numbers. The UC line has been an adventure, so it will be interesting to see if they can stop the NC St blitz attack.

This may be a good challenge for NC State.  If the Bearcats are providing NC State with a tight defense against the ground game, we might be in trouble unless Russell Wilson decides to get the peanuts and crackerjacks out of his arm and throw some better passes.  It’s OK, Owen, we saw you in the endzone, too.  On the contrary, if Wilson adapts quickly back to the football game, which he always has in the past, Cincy could be easy pickings and NC State could find itself on the delivering side of some of those pathetic secondary squads the Pack fielded last year.

The spread offense scares me much less this year than it did last year.  With the weakness in our secondary, and the no-blitz/bend-don’t-break approach of Mike Archer, NC State was a sitting duck (or Ram or whatever animal you like shooting in your spare time) for opposing teams’ spread offense.  During the UCF game, NC State saw big plays by the secondary to disrupt, block, and intercept big passing plays.  The “big play” is already not a strong point for Cincy so this game may be won or lost in the short-passing game.  A strategy of short lateral passes for moderate gain might be Cincy’s best option for success over NC State’s newly revived defense.

Thank you, Scott, for your time and even though when I say my prayers at night on Wednesday I will also be praying God doesn’t hear your heathen words… good luck.  It’s a great time in Carter-Finley Stadium and make sure to swing by Two Guys or Amedeos on your way out, or grab a drink at NC State’s less traditional but still amazing 5 o’Clock bar.

As for NC State, ESPN shows a favorable match-up for the Wolfpack and the immoral, sinful Lunatic Fringe (of which I am a proud, card-carrying member) informs me that Vegas bets are 80%-20% in favor of NC State.  Regardless, the Wolfpack will be hosting the Bearcats as a 2.5 favorite and everyone agrees that its very likely that NC State could start the season 3-0.  Let’s never take optimism for granted, but instead be proud of what the Wolfpack has done thus far, cheer them on for the next game, and never, ever forget why we are here: to prove to the world how much better NC State is than Carolina.

Please continue to check out our forums which often start previewing our next game immediately after the previous game.

Special Note for StateFansNation Admin and Users: Special thanks to StateFansNation for giving me the opportunity to contribute to the Wolfpack community as a SFN author.  I have enjoyed the community support of my previous four articles (1,2,3, and another one on its way for Monday) and look forward to serving the Wolfpack community even more during this pivotal year in NC State athletic history. 

About NCStatePride

***ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NCStatePride has been writing for StateFansNation.com since 2010 and is a 2009 graduate of the College of Engineering.

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31 Responses to Cincinnati Preview: The Road to Three-and-Oh!

  1. Packfan28 09/16/2010 at 6:33 AM #

    Great article, and great insight. I’m really looking forward to tonight. Go Pack!!

  2. Plz2BStateFan 09/16/2010 at 6:47 AM #

    If you are going to the game you better be loud as hell!

  3. Daily Update 09/16/2010 at 7:07 AM #

    Thanks for doing this type of stuff. Great entry, but the 5 O’Clock Sports Bar? My memory of that place was the homecoming parade on H-Street two years ago. The special was 32 oz bottles of Bud light. So we got a couple and sat at their tables on the sidewalk drinking quarts of beer. It was rather odd.

  4. Moose Hunter 09/16/2010 at 7:33 AM #

    Thanksfor the write-up. I tell you what I am worried about- This is a classic example of a TOB “WTF” game that BC use to hate. You know, an opponent we should beat, at home, on national TV, a chance to look good and create forward momentum, and TOB pulls a “WTF”. I hope I am wrong.

  5. Sweet jumper 09/16/2010 at 8:11 AM #

    Use your outside voices tonight. Go Pack!

  6. Daily Update 09/16/2010 at 8:29 AM #

    We should beat Cincy, but we are underdogs? The game is a tossup and certainly wouldn’t qualify as a “WTF” for any coach. I hope we can get past the point of discussing what BC people said because most of it wasn’t based in reality.

  7. tuckerdorm1983 09/16/2010 at 8:50 AM #

    I predict pack wins 38-24

  8. LRM 09/16/2010 at 8:52 AM #

    Fine preview, Pride. You did a good job of making it your own, which is what makes SFN great.

    I’m still not sure many folks outside the ACC realize how good a career RW has had, because I’ve seen a lot of talk about him based only on this season.

  9. LifeLongWolf 09/16/2010 at 9:00 AM #

    ^SweetJumper: HA! You must be a parent…

    I can’t make it to the game tonight, but I’d love to hear a chant of “Carolina…Cheats!” on the TV!

    I know, I know the opponent is Cincy, but Carolina is always the enemy…

    LLW

  10. Sweet jumper 09/16/2010 at 9:10 AM #

    ESPN2 just aired a preview of the game on Mike and Mike by Jenn Brown. The entire preview was about Cincinnati. Not a word about State other than the game will be played in Raleigh. Kick ’em Pack!

  11. ryebread 09/16/2010 at 9:24 AM #

    I don’t think we can take much from the Fresno loss by UC. They’ve typically had at least one marquee win OOC each year (including a couple against GT when Chan was there). It looks like they got Cincy this year.

    I am afraid this is going to be a tougher game than many NC State fans feel. I hope we win, but if we do it will be a squeaker late (like 28-24).

    I just hope we don’t implode or look inept like we typically have on Thursday night games coached by TOB and staff. This could be a real momentum builder and I hope that we are up to the challenge.

  12. Moose Hunter 09/16/2010 at 9:27 AM #

    Daily, State is favored. So, yeah, if we lose at home to a team we are favored to beat, it qualifies as a WTF loss. Furthermore, it has nothing to do with what BC people said, it has to with TOB’s track recored, which is fact. He’s great at beating his rival (see UNC record) but has a history of losing a game like tonight’s. I hope he and this team are past that, and go 3-0!

  13. newt 09/16/2010 at 9:29 AM #

    Win or lose tonight, I expect Wolpfack football will quickly become the dominant topic of discussion on this blog. We win, excitement for what could be a turnaround season; we lose, the questions start up about the direction we are headed.

  14. coach13 09/16/2010 at 9:30 AM #

    Scored a ticket thru old high school buddy (’90). We roomed together at State 1 year too. I am pumped about goin to the game. IS THIS SOLD OUT???

  15. Scooter 09/16/2010 at 9:42 AM #

    It must be game day, I’ve had a pot of coffee and I still don’t feel fired up enough. There’s something about a Thursday night game that gets the blood pumping. GO PACK!!!

    This looks like a fairly even matchup and hopefully it’s a good game — and that the Pack comes up with a win. I can see winning this game being a “turning the corner” moment or losing it being a “same old Pack” moment. Still, the prospect of starting 3-0 for the first time since Golden Arm was on campus is an awesome thought.

  16. Daily Update 09/16/2010 at 10:10 AM #

    Moose Hunter: OK, I see we are between 1.5 and 2.5 favorites. Find me a coach that doesn’t have a history of losing toss up games such as this one. Seriously…do some research on coaches records in games with near even spreads and see how many coaches always(or even a high percentage of the time) win these games.

    In the year we went to the Birm Bowl, I think we won 5 games as underdogs that year(and would have won a 6th if we RW didn’t get hurt in the bowl game). Does TOB get credit for WTF wins?

    Sorry, the whole WTF thing is one of my pet peeves.

    If we are a TD+ favorite, then maybe you can hold a game against a coach(not just TOB). But tonight’s game is a tossup by the odds makers and certainly won’t qualify as a WTF loss if we do lose(especially after we already won a game as an underdog last week – WTF!$!$!$!)

  17. Packfan28 09/16/2010 at 10:31 AM #

    Someone on the forum said Mattes was going to play, but that’s the only time I have heard it. Can anyone confirm if this is true?

  18. Prowling Woofie 09/16/2010 at 11:11 AM #

    Mattes – Hope he gets some reps, but also hope they don’t overtax him right out of the chute ! Rather have him good to go for conference play.

  19. NCStatePride 09/16/2010 at 12:26 PM #

    Daily Update:

    I think the importance isn’t as much whether Tom “blows” this game or not and it’s a “WTF” loss. Rather, I think there is significance in TOB’s ability to follow-up on success over a series of “very winnable games” whether we are slight underdogs or favorites. My biggest complaint of NC State athleics the past 10 years hasn’t exactly been our ability to win, but our ability to follow-up on wins with more wins when the odds are either in our favor or a wash. TOB is 3 losing seasons into his contract. Throughout this time, its not that we haven’t seen impressive wins, but that we see a few impressive wins followed by absolutely abyssmal performance (PITT win followed by 5-7).

    I don’t think you would disagree that this is an important game for TOB to gain confidence in the fanbase that he can follow-up on a victory. I just wanted to clarify maybe where there would be some disappointment if TOB did lose this game. Ever since Amato beat ND and had that one great season, then followed it up with a gradual decline in performance, I get tired of people dismissing our wins as “just another Wolfpack upset”. Our wins need to stop being “upsets” and start becoming expected wins, regardless of what the line odds say.

  20. Wolfgarden 09/16/2010 at 1:08 PM #

    Well,here we go. I have never been a TOB fan. (Just keeping it real) Lateral moves are never good which is what he did coming to NC State. Therefore WTF game(s) is all that it is for TOB. I have said it before and I will say it again TOB came for the money not the kids. He simply was outclassed in Boston by the Sox”s, Bruin’s, Celtics and Tom Brady’s Pat’s. No money was left for him. I am not meaning to say that BC is not a good program for I believe it is. But TOB is a fake and we will see. Still I have State 31 13 over Cincy. Wolves will eat the bearclaws. (Poetic License here) Cincy’s front D line is hurt and maybe suspect to the run of which TOB is married to and shouldn’t be. If we go over the top and keep it up for both halves we win!!! Still they are bigger and we are very very weak on run defense…in spite of what others said about last weeks improvement here.

    I love the Pack I will be there GO PACK

  21. packplantpath 09/16/2010 at 1:25 PM #

    “Cincy’s front D line is hurt and maybe suspect to the run of which TOB is married to and shouldn’t be.”

    TOB is married to the run? I’ve heard many complaints about TOB, many of them well founded. That’s not one of them I don’t think. If anything, I don’t think TOB’s teams have run enough, especially against UCF.

  22. 61Packer 09/16/2010 at 1:28 PM #

    It’s way past time to not only knock someone down, but to kick dirt in their face for a national audience to see. 35-7, Pack.

  23. coach13 09/16/2010 at 2:23 PM #

    I think TOB’s earlier comments this week were an attempt to get his players a little riled/pissed about something. I think TOB wants to send a message of FU to the ACC and anyone else discounting us.

    I bet my boss lunch and gave him 10 pts. I think we stomp Cincy with a bit of an attitude tonight. “Take THAT”

  24. packplantpath 09/16/2010 at 2:27 PM #

    10 pts. Gutsy man. I like it.

    I’m with you. I think this could be a statement game. Unfortunately, I also wouldn’t be shocked if we lose…..

  25. 61Packer 09/16/2010 at 2:30 PM #

    I believe tonight is the “statement game” we’ve been waiting for, and hopefully there will be many more to immediately follow…….

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