CHN: NC State strongly in NIT

09-10 Basketball24

I genuinely believe that projecting the NIT field is much more difficult than projecting the NCAA Tournament field because of a lack of visibility of criteria and fans’ historical lack of familiarity of the process – that has changed multiple times in recent years.

The website, NIT-ology, has become a central spot to visit for lots of fans of teams not projected to receive bids to the NCAA Tournament. To be honest, we haven’t had time to check their historical success rate, so if you have some time please drop us some comments with your thoughts on what you find.

NIT-ology has not updated their projections to include games from Friday yet, but College Hoops Net has comprised an update of their projected NIT field and it has a very strong opinion of the NC State Wolfpack. You can see their projections by clicking here.

CHN seeds NC State as an exceptionally strong #2 seed in the NIT along with UConn, Memphis and Arizona State. Before you scoff at that seeding and projection for the Wolfpack (currently 91st in the RPI), allow me to share the following as a comparison to another of the projected #2 seeds for comparison:

Record vs RPI Top 50
Arizona State: 2-6
NC State 6-5

Record vs projected NCAA Tournament Teams
Arizona State: 2-6
NC State: 7-8

(The Wolfpack would be 8-7 vs NCAA Tournament teams if it weren’t for a friggin 70 foot shot vs the University of Florida.)

The difference between Arizona State gaudy 22-10 record and NC State’s 19-14 record lies simply in strength of schedule and overall competition most easily recognized by the ACC’s #3 ranking in the RPI and the Pac-10’s #8 ranking.

NC State went 11-3 in 14 games played against teams ranked outside of the RPI’s Top 100. Conversely, Arizona State played 21 games against teams outside of the Top 100, compiling an 18-3 mark (with one of those losses coming in a supposed ‘big’ game against Stanford on Thursday night in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament).

It isn’t a stretch that seven additional games against sub-100 competition would more than make up for a three win differential in records, especially when one considers the performance of the two teams against quality competition. Could you imagine what ‘bubble’ NC State could be sitting on if the Wolfpack could have only had the fortue of playing a Pac 10 schedule?

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09-10 Basketball

24 Responses to CHN: NC State strongly in NIT

  1. 61Packer 03/13/2010 at 8:51 AM #

    I just hope I live long enough to see our program being compared to those of our neighbors Duke and UNC, as well as Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse or Michigan State rather than to Herb Sendek and Arizona State.

  2. StateFans 03/13/2010 at 8:53 AM #

    I hear ya…but, please note there was no mention of Herb. ASU was a natural comparison because of the seeding similarity.

    Note that the guy at “NIT-ology” has us on the NIT Bubble. That is a big discrepancy. I’m trying to show why that doesn’t make as much sense as CHN’s projections.

  3. tulsapack 03/13/2010 at 8:56 AM #

    The NIT would be a tremendous chance for this group of players to gain experience, and I would hope that we could host at least one game in that tournament.

    My only lingering doubt is that somehow we have been much better this year against the RPI top 50 teams than against teams in the 51-100 range, and it’s the latter group that will make up the bulk of the NIT field. (Although if we can pull a 2 seed then we’ll likely get a weaker team in the form of an automatic qualifier.) If we can carry our present level of play into that competition, though, I think we’d have every chance of making it to MSG.

  4. Alpha Wolf 03/13/2010 at 9:06 AM #

    I said it last night and I will say it again: my first choice would be two more wins, the nets and the NCAA bid…even if State were a 12 seed.

    HOWEVER, if State’s post-season future is the NIT, I **WANT** some of ASU. I think that State could stomp a mudhole in the Sun Devils, and if that were to come to pass, that would go a long, long way to shutting up idiots in the press who constantly dog NC State and heap praise on a coach who has yet to win a major championship of any kind in his 14 years of coaching BCS level schools.

  5. StateFans 03/13/2010 at 9:20 AM #

    I truly believe that our relative struggles against #50 – #150 can be directly tied to the our lack of talent in the backcourt. You just NEED guards who can deliver when needed and play consistently. The quality of play that Javi and Farnold are currently providing just re-emphasizes the issue since they didn’t provide that kind of play on a consistent basis during the year.

    When they play well, we can win.

  6. TOBtime 03/13/2010 at 9:22 AM #

    Agree Alpha. Any NCAA bid to anywhere would simply be icing on the cake right now. We have certainly shown we would be a quality NIT team. The game last night was UGLY in the first half. Turnovers, crazy shots, it all looked bad. I think it is a testament to this team how they played in the 2nd half. It reminded me of our womens team last week. Maybe we don’t have the best athletic match-ups but if you destroy a team in the first few minutes of the 2nd half you ARE in their head. Our run in 2007 was a thing of beauty to watch until we ended up playing 4 on 5 in the championship game. That won’t happen with the depth of this team. How bout Wood & Williams? The youngsters are steppin’ up!

    Go Pack!

  7. wolfie91 03/13/2010 at 9:31 AM #

    StateFans, don’t forget Williams. I think his play of late, moreso than Degand’s, is what is helping us win. My favorite play by him so far in the tourney was when he took it straight to Booker and got fouled. Haven’t seen too many of those plays this year from our guards.

  8. CStanley 03/13/2010 at 9:43 AM #

    I’m with Alpha. My first choice is the NCAAT. But I always felt like the NIT was this team’s ceiling…this year. I think we’re on solid footing here late, and I would welcome an NIT bid if that’s what’s meant to be.

    And if it’s NIT, bring on ASU.

  9. CaptainCraptacular 03/13/2010 at 9:55 AM #

    What is highly ironic to me is that we already have a pretty strong resume for the NCAAT, never mind the NIT. Probably a better resume than a good handful of already projected dancers. If only we couldve pulled out a couple of those close games: UF, Clemson at home, AZ, and UVA after being up by 10 late we’d be talking about our 23-10 record and possible 7 seed in the big dance.

    Ah, woulda coulda shoulda. Let’s win the next 2 and make it official.

  10. Wolfy__79 03/13/2010 at 10:10 AM #

    did yawl know that les robinson is on the nit committee!

  11. Alpha Wolf 03/13/2010 at 10:18 AM #

    Captain – Pomery has us #59 in his rankings right now. That wouldn’t be enough for the NCAAT to give us an at-large bid, even with an 8-8 conference record.

    http://kenpom.com/rate.php

  12. CaptainCraptacular 03/13/2010 at 10:27 AM #

    Alpha, I’m not remotely suggesting we should be getting an NCAA bid based on things as they stand today, we don’t deserve one based on 5-11 and 19-14. I was just suggesting we already have a stronger resume of wins vs KenPoms top 30 than a handful of projected ncaat teams.

    If we had managed 8-8 in conference though, we’d be higher than #59 @ KenPom.

  13. Prowling Woofie 03/13/2010 at 10:36 AM #

    Checked out the CHN site – thanks for the link !

    It has NCSU as a #2, and UNC RISING to a #4 seed. How does a first round loss in the ACCT merit an improvement in standing ? Oh yeah, It’s UNC…

  14. nav 03/13/2010 at 12:19 PM #

    If the NIT put a 16-16 UNC team in as a 4 seed it would prove that there is no credibility in that tourny.

  15. MP 03/13/2010 at 1:14 PM #

    Very informative post. I know that you only made the “…if NC State played a PAC-10 schedule…” statement for perspective, but I am grateful that we DON’T play in a crap conference, even if it costs us an NCAAT bid. Let’s hope that it always holds true that a “down” year for the ACC is still better than at least 50% of the major conferences. I’ll gladly accept long-term quality of the ACC even if ACC teams are penalized for being the 5th, 6th, or 7th best team in the conference in a given year.

    But as stated good perspective post. Good luck to the team to do the one thing they have any control over that is “bubble proof”.

  16. highstick 03/13/2010 at 1:25 PM #

    I’d love to see an NC State-AZ St matchup with Bilas and some of the other clowns doing the game and the Pack beat the dog crap out of them!

  17. Sw0rdf1sh 03/13/2010 at 2:21 PM #

    I’m with the most interesting man in the world.

  18. packalum44 03/13/2010 at 2:58 PM #

    I was watching an SEC game last night and Herb was mentioned. Something to the affect of “I bet they (NCSU) wish they still had him now.” I almost threw my adult beverage at my beautiful plasma.

  19. PoppaJohn 03/13/2010 at 6:30 PM #

    The ACCT is over so far as we’re concerned, so now we hope for a bid.

    From the beginning of the year I thought the predicted ‘worst team in the league’ should hope for the NIT, and maybe we’ll actually make it. I think it’s a fine reward for a team that played hard, if not well most of the year. If those 4 single basket losses had gone our way, we’d be a 23 win team hoping for a bid to the real tourney.

    If those incoming guards can actually elevate our overall guard play (knowing that Javi & Julius will still be in the mix) I think we’re a tourney team next year.

    Here’s an achievable goal: win at least one more and then let’s start the first of many, many consecutive years of 20 or more win seasons and post-season play.

  20. Wolfpack_1995 03/13/2010 at 7:24 PM #

    We deserve a NIT bid. Period.

  21. Wulfpack 03/13/2010 at 7:38 PM #

    ^I agree, and we’ll get it. We can do some serious damage in that tournament if we keep playing the way we have been the past month. This is a step forward for the program. Let’s hope we can go deep in it, get some good practice time and game experience for our young guys, and send the seniors out in style. Next year, we need to take an even bigger step, and this could help us lay the foundation for a winning culture next year.

  22. wolfonthehill 03/14/2010 at 9:44 AM #

    Agree with Captain. While we by no means deserve or should/will be considered for the NCAA tourney, we have shown ourselves to be capable of beating good teams just as regularly as a majority of the teams that will make the field. THAT gives us reason to hope for next year.

    So many winnable games that we just couldn’t finish… get half of them, and we’re having a different conversation today. *SIGH* The life of a Pack fan…

  23. fmack 03/14/2010 at 5:44 PM #

    Well, well well…my how a little success seems to change the music that I was hearing from some of you. I for one am glad, geeked-up even at the very thought that “El Sid” as some of you have called him have somehow got this team headed in the right direction despite the weekly lynching he has endured and how this team is now being considered for some post-season tourney.
    I just baffled by how some of you nay-sayers have now started to complement instead of complain. My question now is do you Sid-haters still want to see him run out of town on the next coach smoking bus?
    Seems to me that a coaching change right now would move us in the wrong direction, IMO.

  24. fmack 03/14/2010 at 5:51 PM #

    Okay, enough with that. Just let me say that I think a strong foundation is being laid for this program by SL albeit slower than I hoped for but I think it’s being done carefully and craftilly and I think we will see a program that wins and graduates players and it will be a program that we will be proud of once again.
    NO Probation — NO flunk-outs
    This team has endured hate-mail, hate-speech, fan-hate, referee-hate, hate the red jacket-hate all kinds of hate and still managed to have a good measure of success. Now our conversation is about post-season action.
    I love it when a plan comes together.
    GO PACK!!!!

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